College Bowl Games

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Washington (-10)  30   Boise State  22

It looks like most of the key players from both teams will play in this game, with the exception of injured WR Ben Ford for Boise (and maybe LT Kage Casey, who declared for the draft but could still play) and CB Tacario Davis for Washington, whose already missed 5 games. It’s possible that Washington stars WR Denzel Boston and RB Jonah Coleman could opt out but head coach Jedd Fisch says he expects every healthy player to play in this game.

Boise State got quarterback Maddux Madsen back for the MWC Championship but Madsen had a down season (just 0.1 yards per pass play better than average) and the Broncos have a worse than average running attack – particularly if extremely positive outliers against Air Force and UNLV (1st meeting) are adjusted for, as they averaged 10.0 yards per rushing play on 59 runs in those two games and just 4.4 yprp in their other 10 games against FBS opponents.

I rate the Boise attack at 0.2 yards per play worse than an average FBS team and the Broncos will struggle to move the ball consistently against a good Washington defense that allowed just 19.4 points per game and 5.0 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense. The offenses that Washington faced are is 0.5 yppl better than Boise’s offense. The Broncos faced 3 good defensive teams this season and scored just 7 points in each of those games against South Florida, Notre Dame and San Diego State. They should have more success in this game, as the math projects 344 yards at 4.9 yppl for the Broncos in the perfect scoring conditions of Sofi Stadium.

Washington’s offense is a nice blend of running and precise passing led by accurate sophomore quarterback Demond Williams Jr., who completed 70% of his passes in the regular season and averaged 7.5 yards per pass play (against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB. The Huskies also average 5.8 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp). Boise has a very good pass defense (1.3 yppp better than average) and only Notre Dame averaged more than 6.5 yppp against the Broncos this season. However, the Broncos’ defensive front is soft and allowed an average of 180 ground yards at 5.8 yprp (to teams that would average 5.3 yprp against an average defense). The Huskies should average around 6 yards per run and I project Williams to average 7.0 yards per pass play in the dome.

Overall, the math favors Washington by 10 points but the Huskies apply to a 19-61-2 ATS big bowl favorite situation. I suggest passing on this game.

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Note: The line has moved significantly since sending this analysis to my subscribers, as Troy is now a 3 point favorite. Still not a Lean on either side for me.

Jacksonville State (+1.5)  25   Troy  25

The line on this game is spot on but a pretty good bowl situation favors Jacksonville State.

Troy quarterback Goose Crowder has been upgraded to probable, but he averaged just 5.5 yards per pass play against FBS defenses that would combine to allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Troy’s leading rusher Tae Meadows hit the transfer portal but he averaged just 3.7 yards per rush against FBS opponents (he had 186 yards on 23 runs against an FCS opponent), which is slightly less than the other backs, so I made no adjustment for that loss. Troy is a bad offensive team that averaged just 4.7 yards per play against FBS teams that would allow (5.9 yppl to an average team) – and I rate that unit at 1.0 yppl worse than average with Crowder behind center.

Jacksonville State’s defense rated at 0.7 yards per play worse than average, as the Gamecocks have allowed 6.0 yppl to FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average FBS defense an that unit has a bit of an edge in this game. I project 371 yards at 5.7 yppl for Troy in what is expected to be very still conditions in Montgomery on Tuesday night.

Jacksonville State started the season with the horrible Gavin Wimsatt at quarterback and that unit improved when Caden Creel took over as the starter in week 7 for the final 8 games. Creel is not a great passer, as he rates at 1.3 yards per pass play worse than average after taking into account the mostly bad defensive units that he faced, but he takes care of the ball (just 2 interceptions in his 8 starts after throwing 2 after coming off the bench versus Southern Miss in week 5) and is a very effective runner. Creel ran for over 1,100 yards at 7.4 yards per run/scramble and running back Cam Cook added 1659 yards at 5.6 ypr. The Gamecocks average over 250 rush yards per game and match up pretty well against a Troy defense that is worse defending the run (0.6 yprp worse than average) than they are defending the pass (0.1 yppp worse than average). I project 382 yards at 5.7 yppl for Jacksonville State in this game.

While Jacksonville State has a slight edge from the line of scrimmage and in projected turnover margin (+0.3), the Gamecocks are at a significant disadvantage in special teams and overall the math favors Troy by 1.8 points with 50.0 total points. There is a decent 71-31-2 ATS bowl angle that applies to Jacksonville State that plays on the better running team, so I’ll shade the prediction a couple of points towards the Gamecocks.

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Lean – Under (53) – South Florida (-3.5)  25   Old Dominion  24

Both of these teams have dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks that will not be playing in this game and it’s a bit of a guess as to how much that will impact this game. South Florida will also be without their head coach and most of the offensive staff, including the coordinator.

With no adjustments, the math would have favored South Florida by 6.3 points, but I do think that the loss of Bulls’ QB Byrum Brown is more impactful than the absence of ODU’s quarterback Colton Joseph. It’s not that Brown is that much better than Joseph but more that Old Dominion’s backup Quinn Henicle has shown that he can play while USF’s backup Gaston Moore has accumulated just 40 yards on 21 pass plays in relief this season – although he was considered to be good enough to be a backup at Tennessee before joining USF this season. Henicle started last season’s finale and led the Monarchs to a 40-32 victory in which he was an efficient 9 of 12 passing and ran for over 200 yards, including a 92-yard burst.

I’ll assume that the passing numbers for each team fall off the same significant amount (1.4 yppp) from the level of the departed starters (Joseph was 0.8 yards per pass play better than average relative to the pass defenses faced and Brown was +1.8 yppp) but South Florida will take an extra hit in their run game with the loss of Brown’s 1105 yards on 147 runs versus FBS teams, as Moore has not proven that he can run effectively (just 44 yards on 9 runs the last two seasons as a backup). South Florida averaged 6.1 yards per rushing play against FBS teams this season but taking out Brown’s contribution would lower that to 5.4 yprp.

I don’t expect Old Dominion’s rush attack to be affected at all, as Henicle has run for 418 yards on 45 runs the last two seasons in what amounts to about two-and-a-half games. Joseph ran for 1110 yards at 7.9 yards per run and it seems like Henicle can do the same.

It should be noted that Old Dominion has a slightly better defensive rating (0.7 yards per play better than average) than South Florida’s defense (0.6 yppl better than average) and my math leans a bit with the Monarchs plus the points after making the adjustments.

I get USF by 1.4 points, but I think there is value on the under. In addition to lower yards per play expected for each team, which I think is factored in by the market, I also expect Old Dominion’s pace to slow down significantly with Henicle at quarterback.

Last season the Monarchs averaged 2.44 plays per minute of possession before the final game with Henicle starting at quarterback. In that game ODU ran the ball on 48 of 62 plays and averaged just 2.04 plays per minute – a pace that results in about 11 fewer plays being run in that game (both teams total). I certainly expect Old Dominion to once again go to a run-heavy gameplan with Henicle at quarterback, although USF will likely force more throwing than Arkansas State did against Henicle last season, and I project 9.7 fewer total plays being run because of that. That works out to 3.4 fewer points due to pace in addition to the fewer points expected, which I don’t think is reflected in the market.

Lean Under 53 points or more.

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Louisiana-Lafayette (-2)  31   Delaware  27

There appears to be no significant player defections in this game.

Louisiana-Lafayette was a disaster offensively to start the season, but Lunch Winfield took over at quarterback midway through the week 5 games against Marshall and led a 54-51 comeback win with 125 yards on 13 pass plays and 129 yards on 13 runs. Winfield’s season stats weren’t nearly as sensational, as he was 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average (6.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback) and 5.8 yards per on 123 runs, but the offense went from being among the worst in the nation through 4 ½ games to being a respectable 0.6 yards per play worse than average in 7 ½ games with Winfield at quarterback.

Delaware’s defense rates at 1.0 yppl worse than average, although a run-heavy Louisiana attack helps a bit, as the Blue Hens are much worse defending the pass than they are defending the run. I project 400 yard at 6.3 yppl for the Ragin’ Cajuns in this game in what is expected to be slightly better than average scoring weather.

Delaware’s offense relies on the passing of Nick Minicucci, who completed 63% of his 482 passes with just 7 interceptions thrown. Minicucci was 0.8 yards per pass play worse than average after accounting for the defenses he faced and Delaware has a horrible rushing attack (1.1 yards per rushing play worse than average). The Hens will attack a Louisiana-Lafayette secondary that’s been 1.1 yppp worse than average this season (7.1 yppp allowed to teams FBS that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average defense) and I project 6.8 yppp for Minicucci in this game and 425 total yards at 5.9 yppl for the Blue Hens’ attack.

The Ragin’ Cajuns have a slight edge in projected turnovers and a 1-point edge in special teams but overall the math favors ULL by just 1.5 points with 59.3 total points. However, Delaware applies to an 8-46 ATS bowl situation based on their horrible defense and this game applies to a 40-13 Under situation based on the Ragin’ Cajuns going Over the total in each of their last 5 games.

I would Lean Under if the total gets up to 63 points or more.

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Missouri State (pick)  28   Arkansas State  27

These two teams are pretty much intact with just one opt out on Missouri State’s offensive line and a starting offensive lineman questionable for Arkansas State. My math comes up with Missouri State by 1.2 points and 54.7 total points, which is right on market.

Missouri State has been 0.1 yards per play better than an average offensive team this season with Jacob Clark at quarterback, averaging 6.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl to an average FBS attack. That unit has an advantage over an Arkansas State defense that’s been 0.7 yppl worse than average (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense) – although the Red Wolves are relatively much better defending the pass (0.5 yppp worse than average) than defending the run (1.0 yprp worse than average) and Missouri State has a pass-heavy offense. I project 401 yards at 6.5 yppl for Missouri State.

Arkansas State’s offense has been 1.1 yppl worse than average (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average offense) and that unit is at a disadvantage against a Bears’ defense that rated at 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl) even with the 10.5 yppl they gave up in their opening game to USC. I’ve adjusted for that outlier and project 382 yards at 5.2 yppl for the Red Wolves.

Missouri State has a significant advantage from the line of scrimmage but the Bears are horrible on special teams while Arkansas State has good special teams units – which closes the gap a bit. I have Missouri State by 1.2 points with 54.7 total points.

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Western Michigan (-3)  25   Kennesaw State  22

Winds of 15 to 17 MPH with gusts into the 20s are expected in Conway during the 3 hours of this game and the heavy winds favor Western Michigan, as the Broncos are projected to run the ball more and run it more efficiently with quarterback Broc Lowry leading the way. However, the math still only favors the Broncos by 2.9 points (and 46.7 total points).

Lowry ran for over 1,000 yards, despite not starting until week 4, and the Broncos ran for over 200 yards in 8 of their last 9 games. Lowry isn’t a great passer (0.7 yards per pass play worse than average) but he also doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way very often (just 21 passes defended against) and threw just 2 interceptions (projected for just 4). Kennesaw State is 0.5 yards per rushing play worse than average defending the run (and 0.5 yppp worse than average against the pass) and I project 365 yards at 5.5 yards per play for Western Michigan.

Kennesaw’s offense also improved with a quarterback change, as Amari Odom was a significant upgrade from Dexter Williams II. Odom completed 67% of his passes and has been 1.0 yards per pass play better than an average FBS quarterback, which is very good for a CUSA QB. The Owls do not run the ball well, as they averaged just 4.6 yprp against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp to an average team, but overall the offense rates at 0.1 yppl better than average with Odom in the game.

Western Michigan has a solid defense that yielded an average of just 18 points per game and 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for facing the worst of quarterbacks from Michigan State, Northern Illinois, and Miami-Ohio). I project just 337 yards at 5.4 yppl for Kennesaw State in the windy conditions.

Overall the math favors Western Michigan by 2.9 points, which includes about a full point edge in projected turnovers. Pass.

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Note: The line has moved since I sent this out to subscribers on Thursday morning (due to NC State RB Smothers’ transfer portal news), but I still Lean with Memphis.

Lean – Memphis (+4.5)  28   NC State  27

Memphis lost their head coach and offensive coordinator to Arkansas but the veterans on the team rallied the troops, led by senior quarterback Brendon Lewis. With no reported opt outs and just one injury of note (RT Travis Burke), the Tigers should be able to overcome the coaching change and at least keep it close against an NC State team that may be without their leading rusher Hollywood Smothers, who may not play after declaring his intention to enter the transfer portal when it opens in January.

Lewis has a solid season, as he completed 70% of his passes (although for just 6.2 yards per pass play) and ran for 840 yards on 110 runs with just 6 interceptions thrown. The Tigers averaged over 200 yards both on the ground and through the air, but their 6.2 yards per play was against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl. NC State’s defense has allowed 6.5 yppl to FBS opponents and has been 0.4 yppl worse than average after compensating for opposing offenses faced so the Tigers should move the ball pretty well. I project 384 yards at 5.7 yppl for Memphis.

NC State’s offense is 0.6 yppl better than average and the Wolfpack should move the ball at a decent clip against a Memphis defense that rates as average – very good defending the run and worse than average defending the pass. I project NC State with 385 yards at 6.3 yppl.

The Wolfpack have the overall advantage from the line of scrimmage, but Memphis has an edge in special teams (1.5 points) and in projected turnovers (0.8 points) and overall I get the NC State by just 1.2 points (assuming NC State RB Smothers is 50/50 to play). The Tigers, however, apply to a 58-23 ATS bowl situation that plays on underdogs with the better defense and I’ll lean with Memphis at +3 or more.

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OKLAHOMA (-1)  21   Alabama  18

Alabama outplayed Oklahoma 5.3 yards per play for 4.5 yppl in the Crimson Tide’s 21-23 home loss to the Sooners in week 12. The reason Alabama lost that game was a -3 in turnover margin, including one that was returned for an Oklahoma touchdown. While it’s likely that the turnovers are not a factor in this game (I project Oklahoma with 0.2 more turnovers) I don’t believe that Alabama will have the yards per play advantage that they had in the first meeting.

Heavy winds are expected in Norman on Friday night (15 to 18 mph with gusts into the high 20s). The wind will likely affect Alabama’s pass-heavy offense more than it will affect an Oklahoma team that should be able to run the ball at a decent rate, as Alabama is a mediocre running team and Oklahoma has the best run defense in the nation in terms of compensated yards per rushing play allowed.

Alabama’s offense was 0.8 yards per play better than average this season, averaging just 5.6 yppl but doing so against FBS teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average attack. Oklahoma’s defense, meanwhile, is 1.9 yppl better than average, yielding just 4.5 yppl with starters in the game against FBS opponents that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defense (excluding the Kent State game in which the Flashes held out their starting quarterback). The Sooners completely dominated the 4 mediocre to bad offensive teams that they faced (Temple, Kent State, Auburn and LSU) and weren’t as good relatively against the 7 better than average attacks that they faced – rating at 1.5 yppl better than average in those games (0.4 yppl worse than their overall rating).

Alabama’s offense, meanwhile, was relatively worse against good defensive teams, as they averaged 7.5 yppl against bad to slightly better than average defensive teams ULM, Wisconsin, Vandy, and Tennessee while averaging only 21.5 points and 4.8 yppl in 8 games against good defensive teams. Those 8 teams would combine to allow 4.5 yppl to an average team so Bama was just 0.3 yppl better than average against good defensive teams, which is 0.5 yppl worse than their overall offensive rating. Oklahoma’s defense was 0.4 yppl worse than their overall rating against good defensive teams, however, so Alabama should come pretty close to the 301 yards at 4.45 yppl that I project for this game in the heavy winds.

Oklahoma’s offense sputtered at times against good defensive teams but the Sooners rate at 0.5 yppl better than average after accounting for the tough schedule of defensive units that they faced. Alabama’s defense has been very good against the pass (5.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.0 yppp against an average defense) but the Tide don’t defend the run nearly as well (5.0 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yprp) and Oklahoma is projected to average 4.9 yprp in this game, which gives them a huge advantage in the wind against an Alabama offense projected to average only 3.3 yprp.

Oklahoma’s offense was 0.4 yppl better against the 7 good defensive teams that they faced (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 4.5 yppl), which is just 0.1 yppl worse than their overall rating.

I don’t think either team will throw the ball well in the wind against the good pass defenses (5.4 yppp projected for Alabama and 5.2 yppp projected for Oklahoma), but the Sooners should have significantly more success running the ball and they’ll likely be enjoying better field position (#8 in net starting field position while Bama is #102) and they have an elite place-kicker while Alabama has had negative field goal value this season.

I favor Oklahoma by 3.4 points with 39.0 total points with the weather adjustments helping the Sooners a bit (and obviously lowering the total points by a couple of points).

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1-Star Best Bet – Oregon Team Total Under (34.5 -130) to -140 odds

Or, Under 35.5 to -165. Or, Under 33.5 -115 or better.

Alternate play is a 1-Star Best Bet on James Madison at +21 (Strong Opinion at +20.5)

James Madison (+21)  13   OREGON  28

This did not work out the way I was hoping as far as value when I saw the line last week and knew I was going to bet the Oregon Team Total Under. The line on this game was Oregon -21.5 and a total of 50 points (an Oregon TT of 35.5 -110), but the total has dropped significantly, and Oregon is now favored by 21 points.

My math is showing value on James Madison and the Under, which made Oregon’s Team Total Under the best bet I could make. I like that better than James Madison plus the points because I could see a scenario where the Dukes; inconsistent offense gets completely shut down by an elite Oregon defense. Unfortunately, I must wait until game day to play Team Totals and instead of getting Under 35.5 points I have to settle for a lower number (or worse odds) and a lower Star rating.

James Madison’s defense looks legit to me. The Dukes allowed an average of just 15.9 points and 4.1 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average FBS defense and that unit proved itself against good offensive teams. They held Louisville to just 264 total yards in a competitive 14-28 road loss to what was a healthy Cardinals’ offense and 78 of those yards came on one run with a few minutes left in the game that turned a 7-point deficit into a 14-point loss. Louisville averaged just 3.6 yards per play aside from that one big play and the Dukes also limited very good offensive teams Old Dominion and Texas State to a combined 5.1 yppl. Overall, in 3 games against good offensive teams that Dukes were 1.3 yppl better than average, which the same as their overall defensive rating.

Oregon is clearly the best offensive team that ODU has faced, as the Ducks have been 1.7 yppl better than average offensively this season (7.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) but those numbers are skewed by the 1352 yards at 11.3 yppl in two games against bad defensive teams Oklahoma State and Rutgers. The Ducks faced 5 good defensive teams this season (Penn State before losing their top LB Tony Rojas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Washington) and they averaged just 5.4 yppl and 20.8 points per game (in regulation) with 26 points being the most points they scored in regulation against those good defensive teams. Those opponents would combine to allow 4.7 yppl to an average team, so the Ducks were just 0.7 yppl better than average offensively against good defensive teams, which is significantly worse than their +1.7 yppl overall rating. James Madison’s defense is better than the average rating of the 5 best defenses that Oregon faced and averaged just 21 points per game against. My math is projecting 28.3 points for Oregon using their season rating with all games weighed equally and it’s likely they’ll score fewer points than that given their strong pattern of playing relatively worse against better defensive teams.

Rather than just isolating those 5 games against good teams I thought it would be better to use a regression equation using all 12 games that projects Oregon’s yards per play as a function of their opponent’s yppl compensated rating (adjusted for site). The correlation coefficient for that equation is 0.88, which is extremely high (1.0 is perfect correlation), and the slope of the equation is 2.03, which means that for every yard better a defense was the Ducks’ offense was 2.03 yards worse.

Using JMU’s defensive rating in that equation would project just 5.4 yppl for Oregon in this game, which is lower than the 6.1 yppl that the model predicts weighing all of the Ducks’ offensive performances equally. I think there is certainly enough evidence to suggest that Oregon is relatively worse offensively against better defensive teams and that James Madison has been equally good defensively against better offensive teams as they’ve been overall this season.

I project Oregon scoring just 28.3 points using all of their offensive games equally and it would be just 24.6 points using the 5.5 yppl that the regression equation would predict (adjusted up for better than average weather conditions). That’s not unreasonable considering that they averaged only 20.8 points in regulation against 5 teams with good defensive units – with a maximum of 26 points in those games. I like the Ducks’ team total under even if I weigh Oregon’s offensive performances equally.

There is also value on James Madison, but the Dukes averaged only 3.4 yards per play against Louisville, the one very good defense that they faced this season – although they did rack up 87 points on 948 yards at 7.6 yppl against better than average defensive teams Old Dominion and Washington State and overall their regression equation projecting offensive yppl as a function of the opposing defenses rating has a slope of just 0.53, which means that their offense was relatively better against better defensive teams – although I still think they’ll really struggle in this game, as they did in their game against the best defense they faced this season (Louisville).  I project just 254 yards at 4.2 yppl for James Madison in this game.

Based on the historical performance of my math predictions for bowl games, and the actual side and total lines, the “True” line on this game is 18.7 and 44.7 total points. In a sample nearly 600 games of favorites and totals in that range (which averaged a line of 18.7 points and a total of 44.7 points) 64.9% of the favorites scored 35 points or fewer and 61.5% scored fewer than 34 points or fewer (55.6% 33 points or fewer).

Oregon’s Team Total Under 34.5 points is a 1-Star Best Bet at -140 odds or better. Under 35.5 points at -165 or better and Under 33.5 points at -115 odds or better.

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MISSISSIPPI (-17)  39   Tulane  21

Tulane is not a good team and the Green Wave already lost in Oxford to Ole Miss by a score of 10-45 while being dominated from the line of scrimmage 282 at 4.2 yards per play to 548 yards at 7.9 yppl.

Tulane is just 0.1 yppl better than average on offense and they’re average defensively after compensating for opponents faced. The Green Wave are lucky to be here, as they only beat North Texas in the AAC Championship game because of a +5 in turnover margin (outgained 348 at 4.8 yppl to 418 yards at 6.1 yppl).

Ole Miss is elite offensively and 0.5 yppl better than average on defense and my math model projects a 20-point Rebels’ win with a 544 yards (7.4 yppl) to 327 yards (5.2 yppl) advantage from the line of scrimmage.

The question is how much Lane Kiffin calling plays is worth and I deducted a couple of points for that. Kiffin’s departure also adds variance and I don’t recommend betting on this game.

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Miami-Florida (+3 -105)  23   TEXAS A&M  23

I know this game can’t end in a tie, but my math model favors Texas A&M by just 0.4 points with a total of 45.7 points, which includes the adjustment for 16 to 19 mph winds with gusts into the 30s.

The key for Miami will be to take advantage of a soft Texas A&M run defense that allowed 6.0 yards per rushing play against FBS opponents this season, including giving up 7.4 yprp in their last 5 FBS games. The aggies faced a lot of good running teams this season and rate at just 0.2 yprp worse than average and Miami is not a particularly good running team, as they’ve been 0.1 yprp worse than average (4.5 yprp against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp to an average team). Early down run success is important because A&M has the nation’s best 3rd-down defense and rank 4th in my compensated yards per pass play allowed.

Overall, Miami’s offense was 1.0 yards per play better than average this season, as Carson Beck averaged 8.1 yards per pass play against FBS opponents that would combine to allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. The Hurricanes rated the same against the 4 best defensive teams that they faced.

Texas A&M’s defense is 1.1 yppl better than average and they had mixed results against the 3 good offensive teams that they faced. The Aggies were better than their norm in limiting an elite Notre Dame offense to 6.3 yppl but they gave up 8.1 yppl to Arkansas and just allowed Texas to average 6.3 yppl against them, which is only 0.2 yppl better than an average defense would perform at Texas. I project 318 yards at 5.3 yppl for Miami in this game.

Miami actually has the best defense in this game, as the Hurricanes have been 1.7 yppl better than average in holding their FBS opponents to just 4.5 yppl (with starters in the game) while those teams would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average FBS defense. Texas A&M’s offense was equally good, rating at 1.7 yppl better than average with 6.8 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average attack. I project 329 yards at 5.5 yppl for A&M in this game.

This game is very close from the line of scrimmage and Miami projects to be a bit better in projected turnovers while these teams are even in special teams with Miami having a much better field goal kicker but A&M being better in net punting and kickoffs.

I get Texas A&M by 0.4 points and 45.7 total points and Miami would be a Lean at +3.5 -115 or better.

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Strong Opinion – Washington State (+2 -115)  26   Utah State  21

It looks like there’s been an overreaction to Washington State being without their head coach (both coordinators are still with the team) and to players that have entered the portals, as no impactful Cougars are expected to miss this game. Utah State, meanwhile, doesn’t have many losses but the one they do have, Braden Pegan, is their best wide receiver.

Washington State has a very good defense that yielded just 5.1 yards per play to opponents that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average FBS defense – despite giving up 9.3 yppl to Washington in week 4. That unit struggled a bit early in the season with bad performances against North Texas and Washington, but they held good offensive teams Ole Miss and James Madison to just 24 points each after their week 6 bye. I rate that unit at 0.7 yppl better than average after adjusting for quarterbacks faced and for the outliers. Reserve CB Kenny Worthy and LB Anthony Palano are both transferring and won’t play but I don’t see that as a negative, as Worthy broke up just 1 pass and had only 23 tackles while Palano (just 0.5 tackles for loss) was replaced in the starting lineup for missing too many tackles. It looks like all the starters are going to play for DC Jesse Bobbit, who was named the interim head coach for this game.

Utah State’s offense has been 0.2 yppl better than average this season, as their 6.3 yards per play (excluding garbage time) was against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack. Not having top WR Braden Pegan is worth 0.2 yards per pass play (0.1 yppl) as his 925 yards at 9.5 yards per target and team leading 53.5% success rate is a loss – although the rest of the wide receivers averaged a decent 8.6 yards per target. I project 314 yards at 5.3 yppl for the Aggies in this game.

Washington State’s offense is nothing special, although it improved when Zevi Eckhaus became the starting quarterback in week 4. Eckhaus has been 0.1 yards per pass play worse than average (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and he’s a good runner (438 yards on 83 runs). Leading rusher Kirby Vorhees won’t play in this game but his 576 yards at 4.2 yards per rush won’t be missed too much, although there is a bit of a downgrade given that the other 3 backs have combined for just 4.0 ypr on 127 runs. Wide Receiver and punt returner Tony Freeman has indicated he’s entering the transfer portal, although there were sources that said he’d play in this game and a story about a Cougars’ bowl practice on Saturday shows a picture of Freeman catching a pass, which is a good indication that he’s playing. The Cougars attack rates at 0.2 yppl worse than average heading into this game.

Utah State’s defense was pretty good for a Mountain West Conference team, as the Aggies allowed just 5.9 yppl to a collection of teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average FBS defense (adjusted for facing Boise State’s backup QB and half of the Air Force game without the Falcons’ best QB). I project 384 yards at 5.6 yppl for Washington State in this game.

Washington State is a better team and the line on this game would have been Cougars by 3.5 or 4 points had it not been for the coaching change. I don’t think that has any bearing on this game with the both of the Cougars’ coordinators still with the team and no significant losses among the transfers – the best of which (Freeman) being expected to play in this game given that he’s been practicing with the team and attended the new head coaches’ press conference. I favor Washington State by 5 points in this game, as they have a significant edge in special teams, which more than offsets Utah’s edge in projected turnovers (0.4 turnovers). There is more variance in games involving interim coaches, so I’ll resist making the Cougars a Best Bet.

Washington State is a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.

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Louisville (-12)  27   Toledo  17

Note: Louisville’s star RB Isaac Brown has been upgraded to probable, as has #2 Keyjuan Brown, and the recent line movement also could be an indication that some of Toledo’s great defensive talent may be opting out of this game (although I haven’t seen anything on that). I’ve added 2 points to Louisville’s offense to reflect that possibility.

Louisville’s offense is based on their explosive rushing attack, as quarterback Miller Moss has been just average (6.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB). Top RB Isaac Brown (782 yards at 8.6 ypr) has been injured but was upgraded to expected to play, as has Keyjuan Brown (592 yards at 7.3 ypr), who missed the last two games. The run game will still be good with the Browns leading the way.  However, Louisville will be without their top WR Chris Bell, who is injured. Bell led the team in receiving yards and averaged 8.4 yards per target while the other wide receivers combined for just 6.9 YPT. Bell is worth about a point.

Toledo had an elite defense that allowed just 13.3 points per game and 3.9 yards per play (with starters in the game) to FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average FBS stop unit. However, the Rockets will be without impact starters DE Malachi Davis, S Braden Awls, and LB Chris D’Appolonia, who combined for 156 tackles, 7 sacks, 12.5 other tackles for loss and 14 passes defended. I project those 3 players to be worth 3.2 points. It’s possible other starters could be out too, but the rest of the unit has been practicing, and I’ll assume that they’ll play. I project just 350 yards at 5.3 yppl for Louisville in this game, which includes worse than average scoring conditions (double-digit winds are expected).

Toledo’s offense averaged 6.3 yards per play against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack but the Rockets will likely be without starting quarterback Tucker Gleason, who was downgraded to doubtful. Backup Kelieb Osborne looked pretty capable taking over for Gleason against Central Michigan with 92 yards on 9 pass plays and 70 yards on 10 runs. There would certainly be no dropoff if he plays like that, but I’ll assume a standard adjustment from starter to backup in the pass game.

Louisville had a very good defense that rates at 1.1 yards per play better than average and has been good against both the run (0.7 yprp better than average) and the pass (1.6 yppp better than average). Two starting defensive linemen have opted out (DT Rene Konga and DE Wesley Bailey) and I value those two as worth 1.8 points. I project 291 yards at 4.8 yppl for the Rockets, but there is more variance in that projection given the limited sample of Toledo backup Osborne.

The math would have favored Louisville by just 5.5 points with no adjustments and the players likely to miss this game for Toledo are now more valuable than the players likely to miss this game for the Rockets (I get Louisville by 7.5 points with a total of 43.3 points). However, Toledo being without their defensive coordinator and co-DC could have an affect on the Rockets’ elite defense. It is also possible that other key Toledo defenders don’t play, so I’ve added a couple of points to the projection to account for that possibility. I’d rather have Toledo but this is not a game I recommend betting.

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Note: Southern Miss is now favored in this game, a line move of 5.5 points since I released the Eagles as a Best Bet. No play at the current line.

1-Star Best Bet – *Southern Miss (+4 -105)  32   Western Kentucky  28

Southern Miss has lost their head coach to Charlie Huff to Memphis but the players have united and intend to finish the season together. Top defensive players, CB Josh Moten has stated his intention to enter the transfer portal but he also said that he has one more game to play with his Southern Miss teammates. Safety Corey Myrick also intends to transfer but there is no word on whether he’ll skip this game.

On the other side, Western Kentucky actually has more key players that have announced their intention to transfer. The defense has a number of key players that could opt out (although I’ll assume they’ll play). DE Harper Holloman, who led the conference in pressures, DB Nazir Ward, who leads the team in passes defended, and nickel back Dylan Flowers are all transferring with no word on whether they’ll play in this game or not. I’ll assume that all players on both sides that are intending to transfer will play, as none of them have stated that they won’t play (except Wright), but Western Kentucky has more players that could not play in this game.

Southern Miss was a better team than Western Kentucky this season thanks to an aggressive defense that allowed just 5.4 yards per play and averaged 1.8 interceptions per game. The Eagles rate at 0.2 yppl worse than average after adjusting for offensive units faced and they’re not going to continue to intercept 5.4% of opposing pass attempts but the Eagles’ passes defended suggest that they are likely to have more interceptions than normal and Western Kentucky quarterback Rodney Tisdale has thrown 6 interceptions on 192 pass attempts. The Hilltoppers are 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively with Tisdale at quarterback and project to gain 426 yards at 5.8 yppl in the perfect dome conditions.

Southern Miss should surpass those numbers, as the Eagles’ offense has been 0.4 yppl worse than average while the Western Kentucky defense has been 0.8 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.0 yppl against an average defense). I projects 437 yards at 6.2 yppl for Southern Miss.

The Eagles are projected to be better from the line of scrimmage and are likely to have a turnover advantage (+0.5 projected TO margin) while having worse special teams (bad kicker while WKU has a good FG kicker. Overall, the math favors Southern Miss by 2 points and the Eagles apply t a 61-18-4 ATS bowl game situation.

Southern Miss is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +3 -115 or better).

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Lean – Ohio (+7)  31   Nevada-Las Vegas  34

These teams are intact aside from a few injuries from non-essential players. Ohio’s head coach has been fired for misconduct but the rest of the coaching staff is with the team. I’ll assume that has no impact on how Ohio will play in this game, as teams with interim head coaches are about 50% ATS long term.

Both teams are bad defensively and UNLV has a better offense but I expect Ohio to run more plays from scrimmage. The math projects UNLV with 445 yards at 7.6 yards per play and Ohio with 433 yards at 6.6 yppl. UNLV also has better special teams and has about a 1 point advantage in projected turnovers.

Overall, the math favors UNLV by 6.1 points with 65.5 total points but Ohio applies to a 37-4 ATS bowl situation and I’ll lean with the Bobcats based on that trend.

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1-Star Best Bet  – *Under (52.5) – California  25   HAWAII  21

Lean – California (+1.5/+1)

Both of these teams are intact except for one major exception – Hawaii’s best receiver is out and he’s worth more than what’s being reflected in the market. It’s also expected to be windy in Honolulu for this game (13 to 16 mph winds with gusts into the high-20s) and that’s going to hurt both pass-heavy offenses.

Hawaii’s offense rates as average with starting quarterback Micah Alejado in the game (5.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average FBS attack) but that offense takes a big hit with the loss of elite wide receiver Jackson Harris, who has stated his intention to enter the transfer portal and will not play in this game.

Harris led the Rainbow Warriors in receiving yards despite missing their game against an FCS team and his 12.5 yards per target (19.7 yards per catch) and 62% success rate are elite. The rest of the Hawaii wide receivers combined for just 6.5 yards per target with the best being at 7.0 YPT. That’s a huge loss and works out to 1.0 yards per pass play, which is about 4 points with Hawaii throwing the ball more than 40 times per game.

Cal’s defense was 0.1 yppl worse than average this season (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) but the Bears were much better against the pass than they are against the run, which makes them relatively better against a team that throws the ball 63% of the time, as the Rainbow Warriors do. Cal has been without two starting defenders since week 5 (S Isaiah Crosby and LB Ryan McCulloch) but the Bears have the same rating since week 5 as they do for the season except they’ve gotten much better against the pass and much worse defending the run without those two players. In 8 games with their current group of defenders the Bears have yielded just 5.6 yards per pass play to a collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defense while giving up 6.2 yards per rushing play, which doesn’t matter all that much against Hawaii. I project just 337 yards at 5.1 yards per play for Hawaii in this game.

Cal’s offense is also pass-heavy (41 pass plays vs 26 run plays per game) and the Bears have a talented freshman quarterback in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. JKS has averaged a modest 6.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB) because the Bears’ receivers have a tough time getting open and drop too many passes. Cal’s a horrible running team (3.5 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) and they rate at 0.5 yards per play worse than average overall. Hawaii has a decent defense that allowed just 25.4 points per game and rates at just 0.2 yppl worse than average after adjusting for the negative outlier against the Air Force option (10.5 yppl allowed in that game). I project a modest 323 yards at 5.2 yppl for Cal in this game.

Overall, the math favors Hawaii by just 0.4 points, with 45.8 total points, but Cal applies to a 50-8-1 ATS bowl situation and I’ll lean with the Bears based on that angle. The play, however, is on the under. The absence of Hawaii’s big play receiver has not been properly adjusted for and the weather adjustment is another 1.8 points relative to the average scoring conditions these teams faced this season.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 52 points or more (Strong Opinion to 51 points) and I’ll Lean with Cal based on the situation.

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Lean – Over (43) – Northwestern (-10.5)  29   Central Michigan  19

These teams appear to be intact with no vital opt outs or significant injuries. Central Michigan gets back their running quarterback Angel Flores, who ran for 534 yards on 100 runs in 8 games before missing the final 4 regular season contests. Coach Matt Drinkall says that Flores will play in this game but the Chippewas’ offense was no worse in the 4 games that he missed, although I expect them to run the ball more with Flores getting a few series a game again (he ran 100 times vs just 30 pass plays).

Central Michigan was 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively this season and I project just 275 yards at 5.3 yppl for the Chippewas against a Northwestern defense that was 0.2 yppl better than average.

Northwestern is a below average team on a national scale, averaging just 5.2 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team but they should move the ball pretty well in this game against a CMU defense that’s been 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 5.3 yppl against an average defense). I project 405 yards at 6.3 yppl for the Wildcats in the perfect dome conditions.

Overall, the math is projecting 680 total yards at a slightly better than average 5.8 yppl clip and the model is projecting 47.6 total points. I’ll lean over 44 points or less. No opinion on the side, as the math favors Northwestern by 10.6 points but big-dogs in minor bowl games tend to cover.

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Minnesota (-2)  23   New Mexico  21

My math favors New Mexico in this game by 3 points but Minnesota applies to a 50-8-1 ATS bowl situation and I suggest passing on this game.

New Mexico has been the better teams from the line of scrimmage this season on both sides of the ball. The Lobos have been 0.1 yppl worse than average on offense (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) while Minnesota’s offense has been 0.7 yppl worse than average (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl). New Mexico’s defense has been 0.2 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense, while the Gophers’ defense has been 0.1 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average D).

It’s possible (I think likely) that Minnesota’s top receiver Le’Meke Brockington will not play in this game after declaring for the NFL draft and thanking his teammates and coaches on an Instagram post. However, Brockington’s 7.2 yards per target is the same as the rest of the Gophers’ wide receivers (against FBS opponents). It’s also possible that New Mexico’s best defensive player, DE Keyshawn James-Newby, could opt out, although he is listed as a starter on the bowl depth chart.

The math favors New Mexico by 3 points and 44 total points but that strong situation applying to Minnesota will keep me off this game.

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Texas-San Antonio (-6) vs Florida International

There are too many players on both sides that won’t be playing in this game to give an accurate prediction on this game – particularly on the UTSA side, which is expected to be without 10 to 20 players.

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Note: The Under has moved far out of range and there is no play at the current total of 52 points.

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (55.5 -105) – Pittsburgh (-11.5)  29   East Carolina  20

My math would favor Pitt by 10.3 points (52.6 total points) with no adjustments (other than downgrading Pitt’s offense for starting Heintschel at quarterback since week 6) and ECU is losing more with opt outs and transfers than the Panters are.

Pitt’s offense was just 0.2 yards per play better than average for the season and is worse since Mason Heintschel took over at quarterback, as the Panthers have been just average in 8 games since switching quarterbacks (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). Pitt won’t have versatile running back Desmond Reid, who has opted-out. Reid has been banged up most of the season and his rushing numbers are down (just 4.6 yrp on 60 runs) but Reid is an elite receiver out of the backfield and averaged 11.7 yards on 27 targets this season (and 11.1 YPT on 73 targets in 2024). The other two backs have combined for 4.8 ypr but just 5.2 YPT on 45 targets. That’s a difference of about 0.4 yards per pass play for the season, which works out to 1.6 points.

East Carolina looks like they’ll have their defense intact, although they’ll be without their coordinator, and that unit rates at 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defense). So, don’t be fooled by the 20.3 points per game that the Pirates allowed. They’re not a good defense.

East Carolina’s offense is also not as good as it seems, as their 6.0 yppl against FBS teams came against opposing defenses that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack. ECU will be without starting quarterback Katin Houser, WR Yannick Smith and TE Jayvontay Conner, who have all entered the transfer portal and will not play. Obviously, not having Houser is a blow to the offense but Smith led the team in yards per target (10.1 YPT) and success rate and Conner averaged 9.5 yards on his 35 targets this season.

Replacing Houser, who averaged 7.4 yards per pass play will likely be a combination of veteran Mike Wright and freshman Chaston Ditta. Wright is not a good passer but he is a good runner while Ditta’s style fits the offense a bit better but is not considered a good runner. I project the offense to be 4.4 points worse without Houser and two very effective pass-catchers.

Pitt’s defense was 1.1 yppl better than average this season but the Panthers aren’t going to be as good without LB Kyle Louis, who has opted out to focus on the NFL draft process. Louis is worth 1.4 points based on my algorithm, but it looks as if fellow star LB Rasheem Biles will play, as he’s listed on the depth chart (Louis is not). Biles missed 3 games this season and still led the Panthers in tackles and tackles for loss.

There were a few other minor adjustments and the math favors Pitt by 12.1 points with just 49.2 total points. The losses impact the offenses significantly more than they impact the defenses and I think the total is high even if everyone was playing. Pitt does apply to a negative 15-55-1 ATS big favorite in a minor bowl game situation so I have no interest in the side.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 55 points or more (Strong Opinion to 54).

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Note: Penn State was designated as a Lean at +3 but more news on the availability of Penn State’s players has come out. Four of the five starting offensive linemen are now out for Penn State (instead of just one previously confirmed). I still see some value on Penn State though although I wouldn’t have made it a lean with the updated information.

Penn State (+3)  24   Clemson  25

Both teams are dealing with significant attrition due to injury and opt outs but the Penn State was better than Clemson in the regular season and there have been more confirmed players out for Clemson (coach Dabo Swinney says 27 players will miss this game) than for Penn State (although more opt outs could be announced) and the math leans a bit with the Lions given the current list of confirmed players not playing.

Penn State’s offense thrived late in the year with more of a focus on the run game and efficient passing from Ethan Grunkemeyer, who was better than Drew Allar (no surprise to me). Penn State’s run-oriented offense was 0.6 yards per play better than average in the final 6 games after Allar’s season-ending injury. Second leading rusher, Nicholas Singleton, has opted out of this game but Singleton had a bad season (just 4.5 ypr) and his absence would result in a few more carries for Kaytron Allen (6.2 ypr), who ran for an average of 189 yards in the last 3 games. Allen is going to suite up according the interim head coach but he may not play much given that four of the five starting offensive linemen are now confirmed as not going to play.

Clemson’s defense was well below normal standards this season, as the Tigers were just 0.4 yards per play better than an average FBS stop unit (0.3 yprp better than average and 0.6 yppp better than average). Clemson was extremely good on 3rd-downs (just 29.2% conversions allowed), which helped keep opponent’s scoring down (just 21.4 ppg allowed to FBS teams), but the Tigers will be without a lot of defensive players in this game.

Clemson will be without 7 key contributors on defense, including 6 starters. The Tigers will be without 4 of their top 8 defensive linemen (starters Woods, Capehart, and Parker along with #3 DE Lawson), starting linebacker Woodaz, safety/rover Barnes, and CB Terrell, who defended 11 passes. My algorithm values those players at 4.9 points.

Clemson’s offense was nothing special this season, as the Tigers couldn’t run the ball (4.5 yprp against FBS teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) and rated as just 0.4 yards per play better than average with Cade Klubnik in the game (Klubnik was 1.0 yppp better than average). WR Antonio Williams has opted out and the Tigers’ most effective WR Bryant Wesco Jr. was injured early in week 8. Those two combined for 1084 yards at 9.5 yards per target in FBS games (7.8 YPT for Williams and 12.2 YPT for Wesco) and the other wide receivers combined for 8.2 YPT. Klubnik performed well down the stretch after losing Wesco but I’m still going to dock the Tigers 0.24 yppp (about 0.9 points) for now being down two of their top 3 receivers, as the 3 receivers that are going to get more targets with Williams out combined for just 6.4 yards per target. Clemson is also down 3 offensive linemen, as starting LG Sadler was injured in the finale and will not play, RG Parks was hurt in week 12 and is still out, and reserve G Jacobs (4 starts) is also out with injury.

Penn State’s defense got worse starting in week 6 after LB Tony Rojas was lost for the season, as the run defense allowed 5.7 yards per rushing play in 8 games without Rojas (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yprp against an average team). The pass defense was mostly good (0.7 yppp better than average for the season) with a couple of really bad games (13.3 yppp allowed to Ohio State and Rutgers) but the secondary will be without 3 of their top 5 players. S Zakee Wheatley and cornerbacks Elliott Washington (nickelback) and AJ Harris will not play, and DL Zan Durante is also not with the team. There could be more defections, but those 4 players are worth a combined 3.0 points.

If Penn State doesn’t have any more opt outs, then the math would favor the Nittany Lions by 3.5 points (with 52.5 total points) and Clemson applies to a negative 10-42-2 ATS bowl situation that is based on their late season win streak. The problem with making Penn State a play is that the majority of seniors and NFL prospects are rumored to be on limited snap counts to prevent injury – although coach Smith has also stated that he wants to win this game. Most concerning about that is RB Kaytron Allen, who ran for 1303 yards at 6.2 ypr and has averaged 23.3 carries the last 6 games. No Allen at all would be worth 3.5 points, if the untested backup running backs just meet the production of Singleton. If Allen is limited to just 10 carries then that still could be a couple of points and Smith intends to play young receivers more as well.

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Army (-7.5)  27   Connecticut  16

Connecticut will be without their star quarterback Joe Fagnano and 6 other starters have entered the transfer portal with most questionable to doubtful to play. Fagnano had an efficient season, as he averaged 7.6 yards per pass play (against FBS opponents that would allow 7.5 yppp to an average QB) with just 1 interception on 413 pass attempts. I assume that Nick Evers will be the starting quarterback for this game and Evers is terrible. Evers was the starter for much of last season and was 2.0 yards per pass play worse than average (4.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp) before Fagnano took over. Adjusting only for Evers in place of Fagnano I worth 6.4 points and the adjustment would be even more if the 6 players intending to transfer also don’t play.

I get Army by 7.5 points without adjusting for the other UConn players being out, and there would certainly be value on the Black Knights in this game if those in the portal don’t play. For now, I’ll assume that two starting offensive linemen and star LB Oumar Diomande will not play. It looks like CB Cam Chadwick is expected to play and no word on All-American outside linebacker Bryun Parham, who is senior and can’t transfer but could decide to opt-out.

It also should be noted that Military Academy teams are 42-15 ATS in bowl games, including 17-3 ATS since 2013. Army would be a Lean at -7 or less.

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Brigham Young (-4)  29   Georgia Tech  27

These two teams are pretty much intact with the one major exception of BYU star RB L.J. Martin, who will not play in this game due to a shoulder injury. Martin was the Big-12 Offensive Player of the Year after rushing for 1305 yards at 5.5 ypr and he’s worth about 2 points. Georgia Tech has a few injuries on the defensive side of the ball. DB Jy Gilmore is out and backup DE Andre Fuller is likely not going to play but DT Akeo Stone may return after missing the regular season finale (he’s listed on the depth chart as the starter but with an “or” with his backup).

BYU’s offense was 0.6 yards per play better than average this season (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppl to an average offense) and the Cougars should be able to move the ball pretty well against a Georgia Tech defense that’s been 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense). The Yellow Jackets’ defense struggled in 3 games without top CB Ahmari Harvey (weeks 8 through 10), as they gave up 301 pass yards per game at 8.2 yards per pass play in the 3 games he missed). Georgia Tech is terrible defending the run (5.7 yards per rushing play allowed) but they pass defense is solid with Harvey healthy and they just held Georgia to 16 points at 3.9 yards per play in their final regular season game. I project 412 yards at 6.5 yppl to BYU in this game, even without Martin.

Georgia Tech’s offense is very good, averaging 6.8 yppl against teams that would  allow 5.6 yppl to an average team in the 11 games with Haynes King at quarterback, but BYU was once against good on the defensive side of the ball, rating at 0.8 yppl better than average (5.3 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would average 6.1 yppl against an average defense). However, the Cougars just 0.2 yards per rushing play better than average and Georgia Tech likes to run the ball and should have success doing so. I project 376 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Yellow Jackets in this game.

Overall, the math favors BYU by just 2.4 points with a total of 55.9 points.

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Fresno State (-5.5/-6) vs Miami-Ohio

Miami-Ohio’s offense averaged 5.6 yards per play in 12 games against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl to an average team. Starting quarterback Dequan Finn decided to leave the team after week 11 to focus on preparing for the NFL draft (despite having no chance of being drafted in my opinion – unless he’s going to try to be a receiver). Senior Henry Hesson got the first chance to replace Finn but he was terrible and freshman Thomas Gotkowski performed pretty well over the final 3 games – averaging 7.2 yards per pass play and adding 102 yards on 16 runs. Both quarterbacks played in the MAC Championship game, but Hesson was still terrible (3.7 yards per pass play on 23 pass plays) and Gotkowski is listed as the starter on the bowl depth chart. I don’t expect Gotkowski to be as good as Finn, who was 0.1 yppp better than average (7.2 yppp against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB), as Gotkowski’s 15.7 yards per completion is unlikely to continue and his 50.0% completion percentage is more indicative of his performance level. However, Hesson was so bad (33.8% completions against FBS teams) that the team’s completion percentage against FBS opponents was just 50.3% and Gotkowski should be able to play at the average level of the 3 quarterbacks – which makes the Redhawks’ offense still 0.6 yppl worse than average (they were -0.4 yppl with Finn).

Miami WR Kam Perry has declared his intention to enter the transfer portal and he’s extremely valuable given his nation’s best 23.0 yards per catch and 9.6 yards per target on 88 targets (vs FBS opponents). The rest of Miami’s wide receivers combined for just 7.2 YPT and not having Perry would be a significant blow to the Redhawks’ offense. However, Perry is listed as a starter on the depth chart while others intending to transfer, or that have opted-out, are not listed on DC, which indicates that the depth chart has been updated. It’s still possible that Perry will not play but he travelled with the team and I’ll assume that he will play.

Fresno State has a solid defense that allowed just 21.3 points and 5.0 yppl to FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team (adjusted for facing backup quarterbacks against Boise State and San Jose State). That unit looks pretty much intact aside from a couple of injuries (LB Thunderbird has been out and S Wilson is listed as a starter on the depth chart after missing the regular season finale). I project just 268 total yards at 4.6 yppl if Perry does not play for Miami and 284 yards at 4.9 yppl if Perry plays (resulting in a difference of 1.7 points). For now, I’ll assume that Perry is 50/50 to play.

Fresno State was 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively this season as the Bulldogs struggled to throw the ball effectively with E.J. Warner at quarterback. Warner was 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average, which prompted a late season change to Carson Conklin. However, Conklin was much worse, as he averaged only 3.2 yppp on 92 pass plays in 3 games against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. The coaching staff wisely went back to Warner, the better of two evils, in the final two games as they tried to secure a spot in the MWC Championship game, but now Conklin is listed on the depth chart above Warner – although with an “or” designation – and I suspect that either or both will play in this game. I’ll make no adjustment to Fresno’s team yppp rating, but they’d likely be much worse if Conklin gets most of the snaps.

Miami has a good defense that was 0.2 yppl better than average in the regular season. However, that unit will be without DE Trick and LB Hondru (neither is on the bowl depth chart), who combined for 142 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 8 other tackles for loss and 10 passes defended. Those two are worth 2.3 points. I project Fresno to gain 332 yards at 5.1 yppl in this game based on Warner getting the same percentage of the team’s pass plays as he had in the regular season (73%).

There’s a lot of variance in projecting this game, as Fresno’s two quarterbacks have been very different in effectiveness during the regular season and it is uncertain how many snaps each will get given that they’re listed as co-starters. With Miami WR Perry now expected to play and Fresno QB Warner getting 73% of the pas plays I would get Fresno by 3.1 points and a total of 42.5 points. The Bulldogs do apply to a 50-9-1 ATS bowl situation and I want no part of this game.

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Lean – San Diego State (+6.5)  26   North Texas  28

My math model would have favored North Texas by just 1 point with everyone playing but the Aztecs will be without their starting quarterback and their best wide receiver. However, I think there’s been an overreaction to those losses and San Diego State applies to a 38-4 ATS subset of an 84-30 ATS bowl situation that plays on the significantly better defensive teams as an underdog.

North Texas has one of the best offensive units in the nation and the Eagles rate at 1.2 yards per play better than an average FBS attack (adjusted for outliers like the 11.4 yppl against Rice). Quarterback Drew Mestemaker is rumored to be entering the transfer portal but he will play in this game along with the rest of the offense.

San Diego State’s defense is very good, as the Aztecs allowed just 12.6 points per game and 4.3 yppl this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for facing backup quarterbacks in multiple games). The math projects 401 yards at 6.2 yppl for North Texas in this game.

San Diego State’s offense was 0.3 yppl worse than average in the regular season and starting quarterback Jayden Denegal will miss this game after having surgery following the final regular season game. Denegal’s absence will likely lead to veteran Bert Emanuel Jr. leading the attack. Emanuel is more of a runner (6.8 yards per on 154 career runs) than a passer (just 53.3% completions on 60 career passes and 2.0 yards per pass play worse than average) and he won’t have leading receiver Jordan Napier (9.1 yards per target on 69 targets). I expect the Aztecs, who normally run the ball 63.5% of the time, to run the ball about 75% of the time in this game with Emanuel at quarterback. That game plan should work well against a North Texas defense that gave up 231 run yards per game at 5.4 yprp (to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average defense) while being a bit better than average in pass defense.

The loss of Napier is only 0.6 points with just 16 pass plays expected in this game and Emanuel is just a 1.1 points downgrade given how good of a runner he is – even with me having him averaging just 3.7 yards per pass play in this game. I’m projecting San Diego State to run for over 300 yards at 6.1 yards per rushing play in this game with Emanuel Jr. at quarterback. Overall I project 365 yards at 5.5 yppl for the Aztecs and I think they can keep this game close given that their strong defense appears to be intact for this game. However, losing their elite defensive coordinator Rob Aurich (he left for Nebraska) could result in San Diego State’s defense not being as good with a new play-caller. I’ll dock the Aztecs a point on defense for the coaching change.

The math favors North Texas by 3 points (and 54.2 total points) and the situation strongly favors the defensively superior Aztecs in this game. Also, teams that were extremely high scoring teams in the regular season tend to lose some of their rhythm for the bowl game, as teams that averaged more than 40 points per game in the regular season are just 94-119-2 ATS in their bowl games, including 59-89-1 ATS against teams with a defense that have allowed 22 points or fewer per game (as is the case here).

San Diego State is a Lean at +6 or more.

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Missouri (-4)  23   Virginia  20

Virginia has a mediocre offense led by a subpar rushing attack and quarterback Chandler Morris performing at a barely better than an average level. Leading rusher J’Mari Taylor has been undecided on whether he’ll play or not but his 4.8 yards per run likely won’t be missed given that veteran backup Harrison Waylee has accumulated over 3600 career rushing yards at 5.3 ypr and averaged 5.0 ypr this season. The big question is whether top WR Trell Harris will play or not after being injured in the ACC Championship game. Harris averaged 10.5 yards on 78 targets against FBS opponents while the rest of the Cavaliers’ receivers combined for just 7.2 yards per target. That works out to 1.5 points in this game if Harris can’t play.

Missouri’s defense was outstanding this season, as the Tigers yielded just 4.7 yards per play to FBS opponents that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defense. That unit will be without leading tackler and 1st-Team All SEC LB Josiah Trotter but otherwise appears to be intact for this game, although Missouri has not released a bowl depth chart so there could be some opt outs – although head coach Eli Drinkwitz doesn’t expect many. Trotter had 13 tackles for loss among his 84 tackles and I value him at 1.1 points. I’ll assume that the rest of the defense is playing and I project just 292 yards at 4.6 yppl for the Cavaliers in this game if star WR Harris can play or 279 yards at 4.4 yppl if Harris is out.

Missouri’s offense relies on their powerful rushing attack led my Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts, who combined for 2257 rush yards at 6.4 yards per run. Virginia has a good run defense (0.7 yards per rushing play better than average) and they’ll be focused on stopping the Tigers’ ground game given that the Tigers’ starting quarterback Beau Pribula has left the team. Pribula wasn’t good (0.3 yards per pass play worse than average with 9 interceptions on 270 pass attempts, but backup Matt Zollers was much worse. Zollers got meaningful snaps in a 3-game stretch from the middle of their week 9 game against Vanderbilt through their week 12 games against Miss State and he averaged just 3.9 yards per pass play (excluding a lucky Hail-Mary completion) while rating at 1.6 yppp worse than average FBS quarterback. Zollers is also not a runner and Pribula ran for 381 yards on 63 runs. Missouri will also be without 3 of their top 4 pass-catchers, as wide receivers Joshua Manning and Marquis Johnson have left the team and TE Brett Norfleet is injured.

Virginia’s defense has been 0.8 yards per play better than average this season and have been equally good defending the run and the pass. Run defense is obviously most important in this matchup and Missouri’s backup quarterback isn’t likely to take full advantage of Virginia’s CB Ja’son Prevard having left the team. Prevard led the Cavaliers in passes defended (8) but he didn’t add any run support (just 24 totals) and I value him at just 0.5 points in a game in which I expect Missouri to focus heavily on the run game. I project Missouri to run for close to 250 yards at 5.7 yards per run play while Zollers manages just 4.4 yards per pass play. Overall, the Tigers are projected to gain 363 yards at 5.2 yppl.

Missouri is projected to be significantly better from the line of scrimmage, which more than overcomes Virginia’s special teams advantage and I get the Tigers by 4.2 points with 44.4 total points if Harris plays for Virginia and Missouri by 5.7 points and 43.2. However, Virginia applies to a very good 79-25-2 ATS bowl situation. I suggest passing on this game.

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Strong Opinion – Houston (-1 -105)  26   Louisiana State  19

My math model would have favored LSU by just 3 points without any adjustments but LSU is about 10 points worse due to injuries and opt outs.

The LSU offense was struggling even with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who didn’t have close to the receiving corps that he did last season. Nussmeier was just 0.1 yards per pass play better than average but backup Michael Van Buren Jr. who wasn’t good at Mississippi State last season, was 2.0  yppp worse than Nussmeier in 4-plus games against FBS teams after taking over for the injured starter. Van Buren has averaged just 4.5 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback). The Tigers were 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively for the season and they rate at 1.0 yppl worse than average with Van Buren at quarterback while averaging just 16.3 points in his 3 starts. One of those starts was against Oklahoma but LSU managed to average only 18 points against Arkansas and Western Kentucky, who are horrible defensive teams.

Houston’s defense was just 0.2 yppl better than average this season but that should be good enough to contain a bad LSU defense and I project just 283 yards at 4.8 yppl for LSU in this game – even in a domed stadium.

Houston’s offense was 0.3 yppl better than average this season with quarterback Conner Weigman in the game and the Cougars are intact aside from their starting center, who left the team. LSU’s elite defense (1.3 yards per play better than average) will be a shell of itself with 6 starters opting out of this game, including All-American CB Mansoor Delane. Six of the top 9 tacklers are gone and my algorithm projects the LSU defense to be 5.7 points worse. I project 371 yards at 5.6 yppl for the Cougars in this game.

Overall, the math favors Houston by 6.0 points with 45.2 total points and I’m going to add a point for this game being played in the city of Houston. Houston is a Strong Opinion to -2.5 or less.

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