College Football Rotation

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Note: The line has moved significantly since releasing this play on Monday morning. No play at the current number.

Strong Opinion – Kennesaw State (+1)  35   JACKSONVILLE STATE  29

Jacksonville State is hosting this game because they beat Kennesaw State at home 35-26 a few weeks ago. However, Kennesaw State outplayed the Gamecocks by 4.6 points from the line of scrimmage, losing that game due to being -3 in turnovers (-4 if you include the intercepted Hail Mary pass on the final play). I expect Kennesaw State to outplay Jacksonville State from the line of scrimmage again in this game and it’s highly unlikely that they’ll be derailed by numerous turnovers as they were in the first meeting (I project Jacksonville State was a 0.3 turnover advantage).

The Owls should be able to move the ball well again, as they did in the first meeting with Jacksonville State (578 yards at 6.5 yards per play). Quarterback Amari Odom, who started the season as a backup, has averaged 8.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average QB) and the offense rates at 0.3 yards per play better than an average FBS offense when Odom is behind center.

Jacksonville State has a horrible defense that’s allowed over 400 yards per game at 5.9 yppl to opposing offenses that collectively would average just 5.1 yppl against an average defense. The Gamecocks are 0.5 yards per rushing play worse than average and 1.3 yards per pass play worse than average, so Odom should have a productive game but without the interceptions this time (he threw just 3 interceptions on 193 pass attempts excluding the first JV State game). The Owls are projected to gain 460 yards at 6.7 yards per play in this game.

Jacksonville State’s offense also improved when they switched quarterbacks, as Caden Creel has been an upgrade over Gavin Wimsatt, who got the first 5 starts of the season. Creel is not a good passer (although Wimsatt was worse), as he’s averaged a modest 6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.4 yppp to an average QB. However, Creel is an excellent runner, and he tallied 988 yards on the ground on 136 runs (7.3 yprp). Starting with the week 5 game against Southern Miss, when Creel came off the bench and ran for 173 yards, the Gamecocks have averaged 266 ground yards per game at 5.7 yprp (against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team. Even with the rushing attack being 0.2 yprp better than average on a national scale, the Jacksonville State offense still rates at 0.5 yards per play worse than average.

Kennesaw’s defense is not quite as bad as their opponent’s defense, but the Owls are 0.7 yppl worse than average defensively, rating at 0.5 yprp worse than average and 1.1 yppp worse than average. The projection for  Jacksonville State’s offense is 438 total yards at 6.1 yppl.

Kennesaw State is a bit better defensively (0.1 yppl) and significantly better on offense (0.8 yppl better) and I expect the Owls to outplay the Gamecocks again from the line of scrimmage and to not be so negative in turnovers as they were the last time these teams met on this field.

Kennesaw State is a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.

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JAMES MADISON (-23.5)  35   Troy  9

James Madison is in the running for a playoff spot and the Dukes’ elite defense should dominate this game against a bad Troy attack. Troy has averaged only 4.9 yards per play against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. I rate Troy at 1.0 yppl worse than average with Goose Crowder at quarterback and I project just 207 yards at 3.6 yppl and the Trojans have averaged just 8 points in two games against better than average defensive teams Clemson and Old Dominion – neither of which is close to as good defensively as James Madison’s defense. JMU has yielded just 16 points per game and 4.2 yppl (with starters in the game) to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average FBS defense.

James Madison improved offensively as the season progressed and the Dukes enter this game at 0.4 yppl better than an average FBS team on the attack side of the ball. Troy’s defense is 0.3 yppl worse than average, which is the same level as the schedule of teams that JMU averaged 37.8 points against.

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North Texas (-2) at TULANE

North Texas has the #1 offense in the nation in terms of points and total yards per game and the Eagles rank 9th in my compensated yards per play ratings. Tulane’s defense rates 0.1 yards per play worse than average on a national scale, but that’s 0.3 yppl better than the average defense the Eagles faced this season. North Texas faced 4 favorite or better defensive teams this season (Western Michigan, Washington State, Army, and South Florida) and they averaged 43.3 points in those games.

Tulane’s offense is 0.4 yards per play better than average and they should move the ball at a good rate against a North Texas defense that’s 0.4 yppl worse than average.

North Texas is the better team, but my math model favors the Eagles by just 1.3 points (and 67.8 total points). However, the North Texas offense, led by a freshman quarterback, has been even better in recent weeks than their season rating, as the Eagles have averaged 9.9 yppl in their last 3 games. My gut is telling me that North Texas wins this game by more than 3 points but the math, based on the entire season, leans slightly with Tulane.

I suggest passing on this game.

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Lean – BOISE STATE (-5)  34   Nevada-Las Vegas  25

Boise State won the regular season meeting against UNLV 56-31 with the Broncos averaging 10.2 yards per play. Boise’s offense struggled in their final 4 games of the season without quarterback Maddux Madsen, but Madsen is back this week. Madsen did not have a great season, other than a few games, and he’ll be without WR Ben Ford, whose 10.2 yards per target leads the team – although on just 32 targets. I rate Boise’s offense at 0.1 yards per play worse than average after adjusting for Madsen being back and Ford being out (and adjusting for outliers that skewed the Broncos’ average rating upwards). That unit has an edge over a horrible UNLV defense that allowed 6.4 yards per play this season (to teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defense). I project 478 yards at 6.6 yppl in the rainy conditions expected in Boise on Friday night.

UNLV is in this game because of an offense that averaged 37 points and 7.1 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team). The Rebels played half of their games in a dome and have to play this game outdoors and in the rain. That unit averaged 6.1 yppl in their loss at Boise earlier this season in really good scoring conditions (sunny and a slight breeze) and I project 337 yards at 5.9 yppl in this game (adjusted for the weather) against a Boise defense that’s been 0.2 yppl better than average.

The line value is on the side of the Broncos as long as Madsen plays at his median level of play in his first game back.

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Texas Tech (-12.5)  33   Brigham Young  19

My ratings/math model has liked both of these teams all season and they are a combined 19-5 ATS. There’s not much value here, as my math favors Texas Tech by 13.6 points with a total of 51.6 points.

The best unit on the field is the Texas Tech defense, which allowed just 11.6 points in 11 games against FBS opposition and yielded just 3.9 yards per play with their starters in the game (to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense). BYU has a good offense that rates at 0.7 yppl better than average but Texas Tech allowed an average of just 15.2 points in 6 games against good offensive teams, including surrendering just 7 points on 3.9 yppl to BYU in week 11. Turnovers hurt the Cougars in that game and they should be better in this game – although I project just 302 yards at 5.0 yppl even with the perfect conditions at AT&T Stadium.

The Texas Tech offense was mostly very good this season and averaged 43 points in the 9 games against FBS opponents in which quarterback Behren Morton played. The Red Raiders are unbeaten with Morton, as their only loss was at Arizona State when he was out, and their offense rates at 1.1 yards per play better than average with Morton on the field this season.

The Red Raiders did struggle a bit in their first meeting against a good BYU defense (0.7 yppl better than average), as they managed just 5.2 yppl and 29 points (their lowest with Morton at quarterback), but I projected 419 yards at 6.0 yppl for Texas Tech in this game.

Tech has the edge from the line of scrimmage and the Red Raiders have about a 2 points edge in special teams, which along with their defense, has them rated #5 in the nation in net starting field position.

I don’t see enough value to make this game worth betting.

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Western Michigan (-1.5) vs Miami-Ohio

I don’t see any value in this game, as my math favors Western Michigan by 1.3 points with a total of 43.6 points (adjusted for playing in a dome).

I was on Western Michigan multiple times this season during their good run through the MAC, as the team improved heading into conference play when Broc Lowry took over at quarterback. Lowry averaged just 6.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB). However, Lowry runs well (979 yards at 6.2 yards per rushing play) and he doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way very often (just 19 passes defended against him, with just 2 interceptions, on 245 pass plays).

Miami-Ohio has a defense that’s been 0.2 yards per play better than an average FBS defense but they’re 0.2 yards per rushing play worse than average and the Broncos have a run-heavy attack. I project 331 yards at 5.1 yppl for Western Michigan.

Miami-Ohio’s offense was led most of the season by veteran quarterback Dequan Finn, but Finn left the team with 3 regular season games remaining to start preparing for the NFL draft combine, which I think is ridiculous unless he’s going to convert to another position given how mediocre his passing skills are. Backup Henry Hesson was a disaster (just 41% completions) but Thomas Gotkowski took over early in the week 13 game against Buffalo has has performed at a decent level. Gotkowski completed just 53% of his 47 passes and he’s not likely to continue to average 16.4 yards per completion, but he’s much better than Hesson was and doesn’t look like much of a downgrade from Finn in the aerial game while showing ability to make plays with his legs (86 yards on 13 runs).

I rate Miami’s offense at 0.4 yppl worse than average heading into this game and they’ll be up against a good Western Michigan defense that’s allowed just 18.7 points per game and rates at 0.2 yppl better than average on a national scale. I project 298 yards at 5.4 yppl for the Redhawks in this game.

Miami-Ohio has better special teams (1.2 points per game advantage in field goals alone) but Lowry is less likely to throw interceptions and overall I’m right where the market it with Western Michigan by 1.5 points and 43.6 total points.

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Georgia (-1.5) vs Alabama

My math model favors Georgia by 1.6 points with 48.0 total points.

Alabama shook off an opening week loss to Florida State by winning 10 of their last 11 games, including a 24-21 win at Georgia. The Crimson Tide are good offensively , as their 5.8 yards per play against FBS opponents (with Ty Simpson in the game) came against teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppl to an average FBS offense. Alabama’s defense has been 1.0 yppl better than average, yielding just 5.2 yppl (excluding garbage time) to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense.

Georgia rates about the same, as the Bulldogs were just 0.5 yppl better than average on offense this season but have been 1.3 yppl better than average on the defensive side of the ball (5.0 yppl allowed with starters in the game against teams that would average 6.3 yppl against an average team).

Georgia averaged 6.7 yppl and allowed just 5.3 yppl in their regular season meeting with Alabama but the Tide ran 22 more plays from scrimmage (excluding kneel downs) because they were able to convert 13 of 19 3rd-down chances while Georgia got a first-down on just 2 of 8 3rd-down plays. It’s highly unlikely that Bama will have such an extreme advantage in 3rd-downs this time around and my math favors Georgia by 1.6 points with 48.0 total points.

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Note: The line has moved up since releasing this play on Monday morning. Virginia is a Lean at -3.5 to -5.

Strong Opinion – Virginia (-3)  35   Duke  26

Virginia won this matchup 34-17 at Duke just a few weeks ago with the Cavaliers outgaining the Blue Devis 543 yards at 7.1 yards per play to 235 yards at 4.1 yppl. I don’t see it being nearly so lopsided this time but Virginia is clearly the better team.

Duke’s strength is their offense, which has averaged 33.6 points and 6.1 yards per play against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack (0.5 yppl better than average). However, the Blue Devils’ defense has been 0.6 yppl worse than average (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense). Duke has managed to outscore those opponents by 3.1 points because they have good special teams and a +8 turnover margin.

Virginia has equally good special teams and the Cavaliers, while only 0.2 yppl better than average on offense, as been 0.7 yppl better than average defensively this season while only giving up more than 21 points on 3 occasions. That defense gave up just 10 points to Duke’s offense 3 weeks ago (Duke has one defensive touchdown). The Blue Devils will likely need to score 30 points to have a chance at covering the spread in this game.

The math model projects Virginia with a 475 yards a 6.6 yards per play to 365 yards at 5.7 yppl advantage in this game and the Cavaliers should be able to win by more than 3 points.

Virginia is a Strong Opinion at -3 -120 odds or better.

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Ohio State (-4) vs  Indiana

I get Ohio State by 3.9 points in this game with a total of 47.0 points.

Ohio State is deserving of the #1 ranking but the Buckeyes could be upset if quarterback Julian Sayin has an off night during their playoff run, as the Buckeyes are a mediocre running team (just 5.1 yprp). Sayin and his elite receiving corps will be asked to carry the offense in this game against an Indiana defense that is elite defending the run (just 3.9 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team). The Hoosiers are very good defending the pass too (1.5 yards per pass play better than average) but Sayin has been 2.5 yppp better than average and rates a bit better after adjusting for the games that receivers Carnell Tate (missed 3 games) and Jeremiah Smith (1 game) missed. I project 354 yards at 6.0 yppl for Ohio State in this game (adjusted for playing in a domed stadium).

The strength of the Buckeyes is a defense that’s allowed just 8.5 points per game and rated at 2.2 yppl better than average with their starters in the game (3.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team). Indiana has a better offense than Ohio State’s offense, as the Hoosiers have averaged 6.9 yppl with Fernando Mendoza in the game against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Ohio State’s defense has an advantage but Indiana played relatively well in two games against elite defensive teams – averaging 6.0 yppl against Iowa and Oregon (both on the road), which is 1.9 yppl better than an average team would perform in road games against those two defensive units. Last season the offense was relatively worse against elite defensive teams but that has not been the case so far this season for the Hoosiers. However, Ohio State’s defense performed relatively better against better offensive teams this season and I project just 292 yards at 5.1 yppl for Indiana in this game.

Ohio State has the edge from the line of scrimmage but Indiana has better special teams and a lower projected interception rate and I get Ohio State by 3.9 points in this game with a total of 47.0 points.