Essays

Topic: Sports Betting

Sports Betting as an investment
Conservative money management and a 55% win percentage lead to outstanding annual returns.
Handicapping Theory (1/3) – Model Handicapping
Mathematical models predict the median result of games and determine the value of erroneous lines.
Handicapping Theory (2/3) – Technical Analysis & Team Trends
Fundamental and Technical analysis, combined with Team and Situational trends give context to the models.
Handicapping Theory (3/3) – Combined Analysis & Best Bets
Many different factors combine to create my Best Bets.

Topic: Money Management

Primer
An overview of optimal bet sizing and careful money management.
Summary
A brief, non-technical summary of four basic strategies designed to fit unique risk profiles.
Kelly Criterion
Optimal growth formulas capture the greatest long term, risk-adjusted reward.
KC Simulation
A graphical demonstration of the Kelly Criterion applied to bet sizing over a long period.
The Dangers of Over-betting and Over-Estimating your Edge
The mathematics which cause some winning sports bettors to actually lose money, and how to avoid the common pitfalls of un-optimized bet sizing.
The (Very Dangerous) Difference between Simultaneous and Sequential Events
More common mistakes made by bettors who do not understand the goals of long-term optimization.
Contrasting Flat Betting with Kelly Betting
Considering risk, return, investment duration, and whether to maximize expected value or win probability.

Topic: Advanced Topics

Variance (1/3)
Expected Fluctuation from sample to sample for events with uncertain outcomes, and the utter normality of hot and cold streaks.
Variance (2/3)
Variance in sports, betting and life.
Variance (3/3) and Results-Oriented Thinking
Why being “results oriented” is not always a good thing.
Bayes Theorem and Sports Betting Touts
Using simple statistics to debunk the ridiculous claims of other sports betting touts.
Expected Value vs. Expected Growth
Earning profits with your profits, and the tradeoff between immediate equity and long term growth.
The Sharpe Ratio
Comparing the risk adjusted return of Dr. Bob’s picks to the S&P 500.