Dr. Bob Sports
2016-22 NFL Best Bets are 368-271-6 (57.6%)
2016-22 NFL Strong Opinions are 263-212-11 (55.4%)
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2016-22 NFL Best Bets are 368-271-6 (57.6%)
2016-22 NFL Strong Opinions are 263-212-11 (55.4%)
Super Bowl and Season Results
I didn’t have a play on the side or total on the Super Bowl (just a lean on the Over) and the Strong Opinion prop plays were 3-3 for -0.11 units.
The 2022 NFL Best Bets were 43-35-3 for +4.65 Stars while the Strong Opinions were 40-33-2.
The Teasers killed us this season, as we were just 3-6 for -11.4 Stars on Teasers while winning on everything else – 17-11-3 on Sides for +8.4 Stars, 19-14 on Totals for +6.2 Stars (including 1 1st-half total win), and 4-4 for +1.45 Stars on Team Totals
This wasn’t our best NFL season, as the win percentages of 55.1% on Best Bets and 54.8% on Strong Opinions was below our norm, but it was still a solid season and the long term record of the NFL plays using the current model is more indicative of future results than the record this season. And most of you also had the College service, which was very good (+28.45 Stars).
Overall the football season was very good at 83-56-5 (60%) for +33.1 Stars of profit and the Strong Opinions have also been profitable at 62-50-2.
The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.
2016-22 NFL Best Bets are 368-271-6 (57.5%) – 187-122-5 on Sides, 133-111 on totals, 8-6 1st-half totals, 20-18-1 team totals, 18-15 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.
2016-22 NFL Strong Opinions are 263-212-11 (55.4%) – 106-100-9 sides, 86-66-1 totals, 2-2 1st-half sides, 6-6 1st-half totals, 15-13 Team Totals, 5-2-1 teasers, 43-23 Post-season prop bets.
Closing Line Value
The average closing line value on our NFL Best Bets this season is +2.9%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 2.9% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.
The average closing line value on the NFL Best Bets in the 2021 season was +3.5%
The Best Bets have beat the closing line 83% so far this season.