NFL

Dr. Bob Sports

2016-20 NFL Best Bets are 281-193-2 (59.3%)  – 159-88-2 (64%) on Sides!

2020 Best Bets are 59-27 (69%)!

2016-20 NFL Strong Opinions are 182-144-8 (55.8%)

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Daily/Weekly Recap

2016-20 NFL Best Bets are 281-193-2 (59.3%)  – 159-88-2 (64%) on Sides!

2016-20 NFL Strong Opinions are 182-144-8 (55.8%)

Super Bowl and 2020 Season Results

2020 Best Bets 59-27 for +33.0 Stars

The Super Bowl worked out well for us, as the lean on Tampa Bay won while the prop bets resulted in a profit of +2.85 units with wins on Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards winning (33 rush yards), Byron Pringle Under 10.5 receiving yards winning (3 yards) and Tom Brady winning the MVP at +210 odds winning. The only loss was Tampa Bay recording the first sack at -125 odds. The first sack was by Kansas City (their only sack) while Tampa Bay had 3 sacks for the game, so it was a good bet given the final sack totals but bad timing on when KC’s lone sack was. As always, the prop bets will be graded as Strong Opinions due to lower betting limits even though I’ve stated that they have the expected value of Best Bets.

For the season the Best Bets were 59-27 for +33.0 Stars and the Strong Opinions were just 25-28-1

The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.

2016-20 NFL Best Bets are 281-193-2 (59.4%)  – 159-88-2 on Sides, 96-83 on totals, 6-3 1st-half totals, 8-11 team totals, 11-7 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-20 NFL Strong Opinions are 182-144-8 (55.8%) – 78-81-7 sides, 67-50-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-1 1st-half totals, 4-4 Team Totals, 2-1 teasers, 26-6 Post-season prop bets.

Closing Line Value

So far this season the average closing line value on our Best Bets is +3.4%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 3.4% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.

The Best Bets beat the closing line 79% of the time this season.