NFL

Dr. Bob Sports

2016-23 NFL Best Bets are 418-298-8 (58.4%) – 50-27-2 This Season

2016-23 NFL Strong Opinions are 303-249-13 (54.9%) – 40-37-2 This Season

Week and Season Recap Below

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Daily/Weekly Recap

2016-23 NFL Best Bets are 418-298-8 (58.4%) – 50-27-2 This Season

2016-23 NFL Strong Opinions are 303-249-13 (54.9%) – 40-37-2 This Season

2023 Super Bowl and Season Results

I didn’t have a Best Bet or Strong Opinion on the Side or Total of the Super Bowl (I did have a lean on the over) but the prop plays (Strong Opinions) were 5-1 for +3.45.

Super Bowl Prop Plays (Strong Opinions)

Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 Carries (-115) (22 Carries, WON)

Shortest Touchdown Over 1.5 Yards (+115) (WON)

Kyle Juszczyk Over 3.5 Receiving Yards (-120) (31 yards, WON)

Chiefs First Sack (-170) (LOST)

Christian McCaffrey Over 129 Scrimmage Yards (-115) (180 yards, WON)

Deommodore Lenoir Over 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-105) (8 T+A, WON)

For the season, the Best Bets were 50-27-2 for +18.8 Stars and the Strong Opinions were 40-37-2.

The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.

2016-23 NFL Best Bets are 418-298-8 (58.4%)  – 208-136-6 on Sides, 156-116 on totals, 8-7 1st-half totals, 25-20-2 team totals, 20-18 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-23 NFL Strong Opinions are 303-249-13 (54.9%) – 115-114-10 sides, 100-76-1 totals, 3-2 1st-half sides, 7-6 1st-half totals, 18-14-1 Team Totals, 7-3-1 teasers, 53-34 Post-season prop bets.

Closing Line Value

The average closing line value on our NFL Best Bets so far this season is +3.1%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 3.1% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model. Last year’s CLV was +2.9%.

The Best Bets have beat the closing line 74% so far this season and 83% in each of the last 2 seasons.