Dr. Bob Sports
2016-18 NFL Best Bets are 182-127-2 (58.9%) – 114-63-2 on Sides!
2016-18 NFL Strong Opinions are 123-93-4 (56.9%)
2018 NFL Best Bets were 45-26.
2018 Strong Opinions were 31-22.
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Daily/Weekly Recap
2018 NFL: 45-26 (63.3%) on Best Bets and 31-22 (58.5%) on Strong Opinions!
2016-18 NFL Best Bets are 182-127-2 (58.9%) – 114-63-2 on Sides!
2016-18 NFL Strong Opinions are 123-93-4 (56.9%)
I didn’t have a Super Bowl Best Bet and my Strong Opinions were just 3-4. However, my post-season Best Bets were 3-0 and I had a great season with the updated version of the model using advanced play-by-play metrics with adjustments for personnel.
The 2018 NFL Best Bets were 45-26 for +15.65 Stars while the Strong Opinions were 31-22 for the season.
The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.
2016-18 NFL Best Bets are 182-127-2 (58.9%) – 114-63-2 on sides, 62-57 on totals, 1-2 1st-half totals, 2-3 team totals, 3-1 teasers, 0-1 season win totals.
2016-18 NFL Strong Opinions are 123-93-4 (56.9%) – 54-53-3 sides, 52-35-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-0 1st-half totals, 1-0 Team Totals, 11-4 Post-season prop bets.
Closing Line Value
If you are among those that purchase plays by the week you’d be much better off subscribing to a 4-week or season package, as we are getting a lot of line value releasing Best Bets to subscribers early in the week. In 2018 the average closing line value on our 68 Best Bets (not including the 3 teasers) was +2.8%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 2.8% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.
2018 College Best Bets 52-35-2 and 75-49-3 on a Star Basis
I also had a good College Football season and I was 8-3 on my Bowl Best Bets.