Dr. Bob Sports
2016-24 NFL Best Bets are 424-309-8 (57.8%)
2016-24 NFL Strong Opinions are 312-254-13 (55.1%)
Week and Season Recap Below
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All Football & Basketball
$4,795.00 SubscribeGet all of Dr. Bob’s College Football, NFL, and College Basketball Best Bets through the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament for one low price ($970 less than purchasing each package separately).
This package includes analysis on every College Bowl game, every NFL Playoff game, every NCAA Tournament game (with projected pool brackets).
2022/23 & 2023/24 Results:
Football: 168-116-9 (59%) on Best Bets & 119-95-4 (56%) on Strong Opinions.
Basketball: 594-469-17 on Best Bets & 540-472-16 on Opinions.
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Daily/Weekly Recap
2016-24 NFL Best Bets are 424-309-8 (57.8%)
2016-24 NFL Strong Opinions are 312-254-13 (55.1%)
Week 4 and Season Recap
The Week 4 NFL Best Bets were just 2-4 for -2.45 Stars and our bad luck from College this week trickled over into the NFL. The Saints-Falcons Under 43.5 ended up with 50 points scored but there were 14 points on non-offensive touchdowns with a muffed punt recovered in the end zone for a TD and an interception return TD. If either of those didn’t happen then we’d be have likely had a winner on that 2-Star Best Bet and a swing of 4.2 Stars on a week we were down 2.45 Stars.
I was hoping that we’d get 2-Stars worth of undeserved wins to make up for that with a Cleveland touchdown on their final drive. We had 1-Star each on Cleveland -1 and on the Browns team total Over 19.5 (-105) and Cleveland had the ball 1st-and-10 at the Raiders’ 16 yard line on their final drive. However, an early snap by the backup center, that QB Watson wasn’t ready for, led to a 6 yard loss and the Browns ultimately failed to covert on 4th and 3 (without the 6-yard loss on the bad snap they would have had 1st and goal instead of 4th and 3). We didn’t deserve to win those bets but it would have been nice to even the score on our luck for the day.
We got a couple of close wins with 2-Stars on Dallas -4.5 winning by 5 on Thursday night and with KC -6.5 -120 winning by 7 on Sunday. Dallas outgained NYG by 1.0 yppl but that result could have gone either way and those of you that didn’t bet it at the release likely lost 1.1 Stars at -5.5 (it was only a 2-Star at -5 or less). KC was a deserved win, as the Chiefs outplayed the Chargers 332 yards at 6.0 yppl (excluding kneel downs) to 224 yards at 4.2 yppl, and would have won by more than 7 points if not for an uncharacteristic -2 in turnovers. The other loss was on the KC-LA Chargers over 41.5, which totaled just 27 points and clearly deserved to lose.
The Strong Opinions were 3-2 with wins on Jacksonville +6.5, the Green Bay Team Total Over 23.5, and Cincinnati -4 and a losses on the Philly-Tampa Bay Under and on Miami.
It’s been a disappointing start to the season with Best Bets at just 7-11 for -7.65 Stars and Strong Opinion at 9-6. However, we have had more than our share of good bets not winning this season and have yet to win a game that we shouldn’t have won. That should even out, and from this point forward we are more likely to be at our long term 58% win rate and it’s very likely we’ll be up by a good amount by the end of this long NFL season.
2016-24 NFL Best Bets are 424-309-8 (57.8%) – 213-142-6 on Sides, 155-119 on totals, 9-7 1st-half totals, 25-20-2 team totals, 1-2 1st-half team totals, 20-18 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.
2016-24 NFL Strong Opinions are 312-254-13 (55.1%) – 121-114-10 sides, 102-78-1 totals, 2-2 1st-half sides, 7-7 1st-half totals, 20-15-1 Team Totals, 0-2 1st-half team totals, 6-2-1 teasers, 54-34 Post-season prop bets.
Closing Line Value
The average closing line value on our NFL Best Bets so far this season was +2.9%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 2.9% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model. Last year’s CLV was +3.1%.
The Best Bets beat the closing line 74% in 2023 and 80% over the last 3 seasons.