Dr. Bob Sports
2016-22 NFL Best Bets are 331-240-3 (58.0%)
2016-22 NFL Strong Opinions are 226-185-9 (55.0%)
2016-22 NFL Best Bets are 336-242-4 (58.1%)
2016-22 NFL Strong Opinions are 226-187-9 (54.7%)
Week 3 and Season Results
The NFL Best Bets had a second strong week in a row, as Week 3 Best Bets were 5-2-1 for +4.8 Stars of profit while the Strong Opinions were 0-2.
For the season the Best Bets are 11-6-1 for +8.8 Stars while the Strong Opinions are 3-8.
The Best Bet wins were 2-Stars on Miami +6, 2-Stars on the Philly-Washington Under 49, 1-Star on the Atlanta-Seattle Over 42, 1-Star on Atlanta’s Team Total Over 20.5, and 1-Star on the Rams-Cardinals Under 50.5. The push was a 3-Star on Houston +3 and the two losses were 1-Star plays on Arizona +4 and the San Francisco-Denver Over 45. The two Strong Opinions lost with the New Orleans-Carolina Over 40.5 and KC-Indy first-half over 25.
The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.
2016-22 NFL Best Bets are 336-242-4 (58.1%) – 173-111-3 on Sides, 120-100 on totals, 7-6 1st-half totals, 19-14-1 team totals, 16-10 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.
2016-22 NFL Strong Opinions are 226-187-9 (54.7%) – 91-92-7 sides, 80-63-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-5 1st-half totals, 10-10 Team Totals, 5-2-1 teasers, 35-14 Post-season prop bets.
Closing Line Value
The average closing line value on the NFL Best Bets in the 2021 season was +3.5%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 3.5% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.
The average closing line value on our NFL Best Bets the first 3 weeks is +3.55%
The Best Bets beat the closing line 81% of the time last season and 88% so far this season.