NFL

Dr. Bob Sports

2016-21 NFL Best Bets are 325-233-3 (58.2%)

2020 Best Bets were 59-27 (69%)!

2021 Best Bets are 43-40-1 for +7.9 Stars

2016-21 NFL Strong Opinions are 219-175-9 (55.6%)

Packages Available

  • Dr Bob Sports NFL Season

    2016-21 NFL Best Bets are 325-233-3 (58.2%)

    2016-21 NFL Strong Opinions are 219-175-9 (55.6%)

    Receive all NFL Best Bets and Strong Opinions, with analysis, through the Super Bowl.

    Playoff analysis also included Prop bets, which are now 31-10.

    $125.00 Subscribe

  • Dr. Bob Football & Basketball

    Get all of Dr. Bob’s College Football, NFL, and College Basketball Best Bets through the 2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament for one low price. This package includes analysis on every College Bowl game, every NFL playoff game, every NCAA Tournament game (with projected pool brackets).

    $575.00 Subscribe

Daily/Weekly Recap

2016-21 NFL Best Bets are 325-233-3 (58.2%)

2016-21 NFL Strong Opinions are 219-175-9 (55.6%)

Divisional Week and 2021 Season Results

2021 Best Bets are 43-40-1 for +7.9 Stars

The Divisional Round week Best Bets were 1-0 (1-0 on a Star Basis) for +1.0 Stars and the Strong Opinions were 4-2.

The Best Bet win was on the Buffalo-Kansas City Over 54 points, which looked iffy until the team’s starting scoring at will late in the game.

The Strong Opinions were all player prop bets, which went 4-2. On Saturday, Mixon (Cin) Under 60.5 yards (ran for 54 yards) and Adams (GB) over 7.5 receptions -140 (9 catches) both won. Sunday’s props went 2-2 with wins on Allen (Buf) and Mahomes (KC) over in rushing yards both cashing pretty easily and losses on Jefferson (Rams) Over 36 receiving yards (he had 28) and Robinson (KC) over 21.5 receiving yards (0).

Since 2016, since the model was changed, the postseason Best Bets are now 17-8, and the postseason Strong Opinions are 41-16 (10-6 on sides and totals and 31-10 on prop plays).

2021 NFL Best Bets are 43-40-1 (3-1 on 3-Stars, 19-12 on 2-Stars, 21-27-1 on 1-Stars) and 68-54-1 on a Star Basis (with -0.25 in extra juice and -0.5 on a futures bet) for +7.9 Stars and the Strong Opinions are 34-29-1.

Being up 7.9 Stars is not bad considering we had one week in which the Best Bets were 0-6 for -11.0 Stars, which was the worst NFL week in 30-plus years. The Best Bets are +19.4 Stars in the other 19 weeks.

The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.

2016-21 NFL Best Bets are 325-233-3 (58.2%)  – 170-108-2 on Sides, 114-97 on totals, 7-5 1st-half totals, 16-14-1 team totals, 16-9 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-21 NFL Strong Opinions are 219-175-9 (55.6%) – 89-91-7 sides, 80-59-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-4 1st-half totals, 9-9 Team Totals, 5-1-1 teasers, 31-10 Post-season prop bets.

Closing Line Value

The average closing line value on the NFL Best Bets in the 2021 season is +3.6%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 3.6% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model. The average closing line value on our NFL Best Bets in the 2020 season was +3.4%

The Best Bets beat the closing line 83% of the time so far this season and 79% of the time last season.