NFL

Dr. Bob Sports

2016-17 NFL Best Bets 100-69 (59.2%) – 66-26 (71.7%) on NFL Sides

The new play-by-play model was introduced in 2016 with very good results and I’m looking forward to another profitable season of NFL Best Bets using advanced metrics. I don’t expect the NFL model to win 72% of the side Best Bets, as last season’s incredible 66-26 Best Bet record on sides was influenced by winning a large majority of close games (31-12 on games decided by 7 points or less) rather than being around 50% in those games. However, that makes up for college football, where I had a winning season despite losing 66% of the close decisions in that sport. The NFL Best Bets decided by more than 7 were a very good 35-14, which is an indication of how well the new model performed. Last year’s NFL sides Best Bets should have been around 63% winners, which is still incredibly good, but not as good as the actual 72% win percentage.

The NFL totals, on the other hand, should have been better, as there were 3 Best Bet totals that lost due to overtime (zero OT wins) and all Best Bet totals decided by 7 points or fewer were just 13-20. Overall, the 2016 NFL Best Bets graded out at 57.4% rather than the 59.2% that they actually were, so we had some positive variance on our side – although not enough to make up for the negative variance in College Football.

2016 NFL Best Bets were 100-69 (59.2%) for the season (66-26 on sides and 34-43 on totals).

2016 NFL Strong Opinions were 64-52-4 (55.2%) for the season (27-30-3 sides, 36-22-1 totals, 1-0 Super Bowl prop).

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  • Dr. Bob Sports NFL Season

    2016 NFL Best Bets were 100-69 (59.2%) – 66-26 on Sides and 34-43 on Totals. 

    Strong Opinions were 64-52-4 (55.2%) – 27-30-3 on Sides, 36-22-1 on Totals and 1-0 on a Super Bowl prop bet.

    The current price is adjusted for how much of the season is remaining.

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    Get all of Dr. Bob’s College Football and NFL Best Bets and Strong Opinions for the full season, including Bowl games, the NFL Playoffs, and the Superbowl. In addition to receiving texts of each play you will receive an email with analysis of all Best Bets and Strong Opinions.

    Dr. Bob is a very profitable 56% lifetime over 29 years of his College Football Best Bets and Dr. Bob Sports NFL Best Bets were 100-69 (66-26 Sides, 34-43 Totals) in the 2016 season, the first season using an advanced NFL play-by-play model.

    The current price is adjusted for how much of the season is remaining.

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Daily/Weekly Recap

2016-17 NFL Best Bets 100-69 (59.2%) – 66-26 (71.7%) on NFL Sides

The new play-by-play model was introduced in 2016 with very good results and I’m looking forward to another profitable season of NFL Best Bets using advanced metrics. I don’t expect the NFL model to win 72% of the side Best Bets, as last season’s incredible 66-26 Best Bet record on sides was influenced by winning a large majority of close games (31-12 on games decided by 7 points or less) rather than being around 50% in those games. However, that makes up for college football, where I had a winning season despite losing 66% of the close decisions in that sport. The NFL Best Bets decided by more than 7 were a very good 35-14, which is an indication of how well the new model performed. Last year’s NFL sides Best Bets should have been around 63% winners, which is still incredibly good, but not as good as the actual 72% win percentage.

The NFL totals, on the other hand, should have been better, as there were 3 Best Bet totals that lost due to overtime (zero OT wins) and all Best Bet totals decided by 7 points or fewer were just 13-20. Overall, the 2016 NFL Best Bets graded out at 57.4% rather than the 59.2% that they actually were, so we had some positive variance on our side – although not enough to make up for the negative variance in College Football.

2016 NFL Best Bets were 100-69 (59.2%) for the season (66-26 on sides and 34-43 on totals).

2016 NFL Strong Opinions were 64-52-4 (55.2%) for the season (27-30-3 sides, 36-22-1 totals, 1-0 Super Bowl prop).

NFL Blog

Check back throughout the season for our analytically driven NFL Blog posts based on information derived from our new play-by-play NFL model.