Dr. Bob Sports
2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 187-128-2 (59.4%) – 115-63-2 on Sides!
2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 125-97-4 (56.3%)
2018 NFL Best Bets were 45-26 (63%) and 2018 Strong Opinions were 31-22.
Week 2 NFL Best Bets
My NFL Best Bets are 3-0 so far this week and the Strong Opinions are 2-1.
I was 2-1 on my Week 1 NFL Best Bets (and 3-1 in College). I did lose all 3 week 1 NFL Strong Opinions but Strong Opinions are still a profitable 56% using the play-by-play model and I expect them to be profitable going forward.
2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 184-128-2 (59.0%) – 115-63-2 on Sides!
2016-18 NFL Strong Opinions are 123-96-4 (56.2%)
I had a great 2018 season with the updated version of the model that uses advanced play-by-play metrics with adjustments for personnel.
2018 NFL Best Bets were 45-26 (63.3%)
Week 1 Results
I was 2-1 on my Week 1 NFL Best Bets (and 3-1 in College), winning with Green Bay on Thursday night and the Colts-Chargers Over while losing with the Cincy-Seattle Over. I did lose all 3 NFL Strong Opinions but Strong Opinions are still a profitable 56% using the play-by-play model and I expect them to be profitable going forward.
The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.
2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 184-128-2 (59.0%) – 115-63-2 on sides, 63-58 on totals, 1-2 1st-half totals, 2-3 team totals, 3-1 teasers, 0-1 season win totals.
2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 123-96-4 (56.2%) – 54-55-3 sides, 52-36-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-0 1st-half totals, 1-0 Team Totals, 11-4 Post-season prop bets.
Closing Line Value
If you are among those that purchase plays by the week you’d be much better off subscribing to a 4-week or season package, as we are getting a lot of line value releasing Best Bets to subscribers early in the week. In 2018 the average closing line value on our 68 Best Bets (not including the 3 teasers) was +2.8%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 2.8% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.
2018 College Best Bets 52-35-2 and 75-49-3 on a Star Basis
I also had a good College Football season and I was 8-3 on my Bowl Best Bets.