Dr. Bob Sports
2016-20 NFL Best Bets are 281-193-2 (59.3%) – 159-88-2 (64%) on Sides!
2020 Best Bets are 59-27 (69%)!
2016-20 NFL Strong Opinions are 174-143-8 (54.9%)
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Daily/Weekly Recap
2016-20 NFL Best Bets are 281-193-2 (59.3%) – 159-88-2 (64%) on Sides!
2016-20 NFL Strong Opinions are 174-143-8 (54.9%)
Wildcard Week and 2020 Season Results
2020 Best Bets 59-27 for +35.0 Stars
The NFL Wildcard playoff Best Bets were 2-0 for +2.0 Stars and the Strong Opinions were 1-0.
The Best Bets wins were 1-Star on Indianapolis +7 (lost by 3) and 1-Star on the First-Hal Under 27 in the Baltimore-Tennessee game (the alternate play on the Game under also won). The Strong Opinion was on the Rams-Seahawks Over 42.5 (50 total points).
For the season the Best Bets are 59-27 for +35.0 Stars and the Strong Opinions are just 17-27-1.
The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.
2016-20 NFL Best Bets are 281-193-2 (59.4%) – 159-88-2 on Sides, 96-83 on totals, 6-3 1st-half totals, 8-11 team totals, 11-7 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.
2016-20 NFL Strong Opinions are 174-143-8 (54.9%) – 77-81-7 sides, 67-50-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-1 1st-half totals, 4-4 Team Totals, 2-1 teasers, 19-5 Post-season prop bets.
Closing Line Value
If you are among those that purchase plays by the week you’d be much better off subscribing to a 4-week or season package, as we are getting a lot of line value releasing Best Bets to subscribers early in the week.
So far this season the average closing line value on our Best Bets is +3.4%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 3.4% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.
Last season the average closing line value on our Best Bets (not including the teasers and props) is +2.8%.
The Best Bets beat the closing line 76% of the time last season and 79% of the time this season.
