NFL

2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 222-166-2 (57.2%)  – 132-78-2 (63%) on Sides!

2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 157-116-7 (57.5%)

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2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 222-166-2 (57.2%)  – 132-78-2 (63%) on Sides!

2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 157-116-7 (57.5%)

Super Bowl and 2019 Season Results

I didn’t have a play on the side or total in the Super Bowl but the Super Bowl props were a perfect 5-0, which included one lucky win on Patrick Mahomes rushing yards Under 33.5, as he had 44 rushing yards before taking 3 kneel downs for -15 yards to give us the win. The other 4 props were a win on Garoppolo completing his first pass (-200), a win on DeMarcus Robinson Under 21.5 receiving yards (he wasn’t even targeted once), a win on Dre Greenlaw Under 5.5 tackles (he had 4), and KC having more first downs at -125 odds (KC had 26 first-downs to 21 for SF).

I wrote to clients that we viewed the props as good enough to be Best Bets but officially made them Strong Opinions due to lower betting limits on props.

The NFL Best Bets were just 40-39 this season (11-7 on 2-Stars and 29-32 on 1-Stars) for +0.2 Stars of profit. The Strong Opinions are 34-23-3 for the season (22-2-3 the last 8 weeks). Overall, the Best Bets and Strong Opinions were a solid 74-62-3.

It was a frustrating season, as we just weren’t been able to win as many close games as we lost this season (5-10 on Best Bets decided by 3 points or less after being 11-7 on such games last season), but the long term results of the play-by-play model are still very good.

The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.

2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 222-166-2 (57.2%)  – 132-78-2 on Sides, 75-70 on totals, 2-3 1st-half totals, 5-9 team totals, 7-5 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 157-116-7 (57.5%) – 66-65-6 sides, 62-43-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-0 1st-half totals, 3-1 Team Totals, 2-1 teasers, 19-5 Post-season prop bets.

Closing Line Value

If you are among those that purchase plays by the week you’d be much better off subscribing to a 4-week or season package, as we are getting a lot of line value releasing Best Bets to subscribers early in the week.

The average closing line value on our Best Bets (not including the teasers and props) is +2.8%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 2.8% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.

The Best Bets have beaten the closing line 76% of the time this season.