NFL

2016-21 NFL Best Bets are 294-203-2 (59.3%)  – 160-93-2 (63%) on Sides!

2020 Best Bets were 59-27 (69%)!

2021 Best Bets are 13-10 (57%)

2016-21 NFL Strong Opinions are 193-153-9 (55.8%)

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2016-21 NFL Best Bets are 294-203-2 (59.3%)  – 160-93-2 (63%) on Sides!

2016-21 NFL Strong Opinions are 193-153-9 (55.8%)

Week 7 and 2021 Season Results

2021 Best Bets 13-10 for +5.6 Stars

This is why they call it gambling.

The NFL Best Bets had been 72-32 (69%) since the beginning of last season and all NFL plays (Best Bets and Strong Opinions) had been 17-4 the last 3 weeks. Then Sunday slapped us in the face with an 0-5 on Best Bets (-7.7 Stars) and a loss on the only Strong Opinion.

But, what seems like a disaster should be put into perspective. The NFL plays are still a combined 17-10 the last 4 weeks, are 24-19-1 for the season (+5.6 Stars on Best Bets) and Best Bets are now 59.3% over the last 6 seasons while Strong Opinions are 55.8% over that time frame. We still have one Best Bet remaining this week on the Monday night game and we’d still be up for the season even if that play loses, although it is more likely to win.

Three of the plays were well deserved losses with KC, the Jets, and San Francisco, but the Washington and Washington Over losses were brutal. Washington lost by 14 points as a 9.5 point dog and they had a touchdown negated by a ridiculous ruling that Washington QB Taylor Heinicke gave himself up when he was diving forward, untouched into the endzone. Gave himself up? Diving head first when nobody was around him? That’s the worst call I’ve ever seen and it cost us that win in a game in which Washington outplayed Green Bay 430 yards at 6.1 yards per play to 304 yards at 5.7 yppl. The Best Bet on the WFT-Green Bay Over 47 also was a good play given the yardage stats. Washington had another trip inside the Green Bay 3-yard line for zero points and got to the Packers’ 12-yard line, 27-yard line, and 24-yard line and scored zero points on those drives too.

The 0-5 on Best Bets could have, and should have, been a not so horrible 2-3. Overall I have no complaints given that we won more close games than we lost hitting 69% on last year’s NFL Best Bets and today evened the score a bit.

2021 NFL Best Bets are 13-10 for +5.6 Stars and the Strong Opinions are 11-9-1.

The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.

2016-21 NFL Best Bets are 294-203-2 (59.3%)  – 160-93-2 on Sides, 106-87 on totals, 6-4 1st-half totals, 9-11 team totals, 12-7 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-21 NFL Strong Opinions are 193-153-9 (55.8%) – 85-84-7 sides, 70-55-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-1 1st-half totals, 4-5 Team Totals, 3-1-1 teasers, 26-6 Post-season prop bets.

Closing Line Value

The average closing line value on the NFL Best Bets in the 2021 season is +4.5%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 4.5% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model. The average closing line value on our NFL Best Bets in the 2020 season was +3.4%

The Best Bets beat the closing line 88% of the time so far this season and 79% of the time last season.