Dr. Bob Sports
2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 222-166-2 (57.2%) – 132-78-2 (63%) on Sides!
2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 148-115-7 (56.3%)
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Daily/Weekly Recap
2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 222-166-2 (57.2%) – 132-78-2 (63%) on Sides!
2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 148-115-7 (56.3%)
Divisional Round and 2019 Season Results
I had a play on all 4 games and won all 4 plays, going 3-0 on Best Bets and won my Strong Opinion. The Best Bets were the Minny-SF Under, the Tennessee-Baltimore Under, and Green Bay -4 (nice to win a close one given how bad close games have gone this season). The Strong Opinion winner was on the Houston-KC Over, which was over by halftime.
The NFL Best Bets are now 40-39 this season (11-7 on 2-Stars and 29-32 on 1-Stars) for +0.2 Stars of profit. The Strong Opinions are 25-22-3 for the season (13-1-3 the last 6 weeks). It’s been a down season so far but the Best Bets have been 57% over 4 years using a play-by-play model and the Strong Opinions have been a profitable 56% over that span.
It’s been a rough season, as we just haven’t been able to win as many close games as we’ve lost this season (5-10 on Best Bets decided by 3 points or less after being 11-7 on such games last season), but the long term results of the play-by-play model are still very good and the playoff Best Bets have gone 12-6.
The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.
2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 222-166-2 (57.2%) – 132-78-2 on Sides, 75-70 on totals, 2-3 1st-half totals, 5-9 team totals, 7-5 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.
2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 148-115-7 (56.3%) – 65-65-6 sides, 62-43-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-0 1st-half totals, 3-1 Team Totals, 2-1 teasers, 11-4 Post-season prop bets.
Closing Line Value
If you are among those that purchase plays by the week you’d be much better off subscribing to a 4-week or season package, as we are getting a lot of line value releasing Best Bets to subscribers early in the week.
The average closing line value on our Best Bets (not including the teasers) is +2.8%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 2.8% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.
The Best Bets have beaten the closing line 76% of the time this season.
