NFL

2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 206-146-2 (58.5%)  – 126-70-2 on Sides!

2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 133-110-4 (54.7%)

2018 NFL Best Bets were 45-26 (63%) and 2018 Strong Opinions were 31-22.

2019 NFL Best Bets

Week 11 NFL Best Bets were 4-4 (5-4 on a Star Basis) and Strong Opinions were 1-1 (Recap below).

NFL Best Bets are now 24-19 and Strong Opinions are 10-16.

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2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 206-146-2 (58.5%)  – 126-70-2 on Sides!

2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 133-110-4 (54.7%)

I had a great 2018 season with the updated version of the model that uses advanced play-by-play metrics with adjustments for personnel.

2018 NFL Best Bets were 45-26 (63.3%) and 2019 Best Bets are 18-11 (62.1%) so far.

Week 11 and 2019 Season Results

Week 11 NFL Best Bets were 4-4 for +0.45 Stars. The only 2-Star Best Bet of the week was an easy winner with the Jets (+2) beating up on Washington. The 1-Star side Best Bets also did well with wins on Dallas -7 winning by 8 (the first win by 3 points or less all season), Atlanta +5 beating Carolina by 26, Minnesota -10 failing to cover in a 4-point win over Denver, and Arizona +10.5 turning a 26-23 late lead into a 26-36 loss. I feel horrible for those of you that played Arizona at +10, as that fumble for a TD on the final play of the game should have been reviewed (looks like he was down) but wasn’t. I’m just glad that game was released early in the week when the line was +10.5. The Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Team Total over 22.5 came down to the Bucs failing to score with a 1st-and-goal at the 1 yard line in the 4th quarter. Why they just didn’t run Winston up the middle 4 times is beyond me. He’s a big dude and probably could have gotten a yard on 4 tries. The 1-Star teaser with Dallas and Jacksonville lost and the Sunday night Over 40 with the Bears and Rams never had a chance as the teams combined for just 24 points.

Overall, it was 5 Stars up and 4.55 Stars down (with the 0.15 in extra juice from the Team Total and Teaser plays) for a small profit of +0.45 Stars on the Best Bets. The Strong Opinions split with a win on the Houston-Baltimore Under 51.5 points and a loss on Oakland -12.

The NFL Best Bets are now 24-19 this season (4-3 on 2-Stars and 20-16 on 1-Stars) for +3.65 Stars of profit. The Strong Opinions are just 10-17 but are a profitable 55% with the play-by-play model the last 4 seasons and I still expect those to be profitable going forward.

The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.

2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 206-146-2 (58.5%)  – 126-70-2 on Sides, 68-64 on totals, 1-2 1st-half totals, 5-7 team totals, 6-2 teasers, 0-1 season win totals.

2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 133-110-4 (54.7%) – 57-61-3 sides, 57-42-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-0 1st-half totals, 2-1 Team Totals, 1-1 teasers, 11-4 Post-season prop bets.

Closing Line Value

If you are among those that purchase plays by the week you’d be much better off subscribing to a 4-week or season package, as we are getting a lot of line value releasing Best Bets to subscribers early in the week. In 2018 the average closing line value on our 68 Best Bets (not including the 3 teasers) was +2.8%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 2.8% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.

So far in 2019 the average closing line value on our Best Bets is +3.0%.