Section 1: Variance (Part 1) A general understanding of the role that variance plays in betting and in life can help prepare advanced investors for the swings that naturally occur in betting. “Variance” has a very specific definition in statistics, but for our purposes it will be used to describe the naturally occurring, short term hot and cold streaks which …
Money Management
Section 1: Primer Tired of losing his money to the house, a bored millionaire in Las Vegas turns to you and offers you a proposition that you can’t refuse. He pulls out a stack of casino chips and declares: “I’ve got a 100-sided, evenly weighted die, which I am going to roll. If it comes up 1 through 57 you …
Sports Betting as an Investment
Section 1: Sports Betting as an Investment Making Money by Betting on Sports A lot of people think that sports betting is about finding ‘sure things,’ but in reality such ‘locks’ are nothing more than gamblers’ fancy. Just as in real estate, currency, stocks, or any other speculative market, ‘sure things’ simply do not exist. As a professional sports bettor, …
NFL Preseason Week 2 Angle – 2021
Winning preseason games often comes down to which coach/team is more motivated to win and the second week of the preseason offers a good investment opportunity based on motivation. To bet on any team, you can test sites like w88 w88oaz. In general, most NFL coaches don’t really care about winning a preseason game, but I’ve found that teams that …
College Basketball Futures Play
The new College Basketball Model tested at 56.7% on qualifying plays over a 4-year test sample that was not a part of the data that was used to derive the model. The initial team ratings found one team with significant value to win the NCAA Tournament. Best Bet – 0.5 Stars on WEST VIRGINIA to Win NCAA Tournament …
New College Basketball Model
College Basketball Best Bets: New Model leads to 56% Best Bet winners last season! I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+368.8 Stars the last 23 seasons), and especially in the last 4 years when I started releasing most plays in the morning when lines are softer (54.7% and +81 Stars the last …
NFL Futures Best Bet (2020)
I have decided to release one of my NFL futures Best Bets a bit early since I think the line is likely to move against us. The play below is being posted at no charge but other season win total Best Bets will be reserved for subscribers. My NFL Best Bets are a very profitable 222-166-2 (57.2%) the …
2019 College Season Win Totals
The following are the 8 College Season Win Totals Best Bets that I released to my subscribers on Monday morning, August 26. Due to the past success of my season win totals (31-17-1, including 18-8-1 the last 6 years), the odds on these moved significantly and to the point where there is not enough value to play most of them. …
Week 2 Preseason NFL Situation – 2019
Winning preseason games often comes down to which coach/team is more motivated to win and the second week of the preseason offers a good investment opportunity based on motivation. In general, most NFL coaches don’t really care about winning a preseason game, but I’ve found that teams that lose their first preseason game have been good bets against teams that …
NFL Season Win Total Play
I have decided to release one of my NFL season win totals a bit early since I think the line is likely to move against me. The play below is being posted at no charge but other season win total Best Bets will be reserved for subscribers. My NFL Best Bets are 182-127-2 (58.9%) the last 3 seasons since I …