College Basketball Futures Play

  The new College Basketball Model tested at 56.7% on qualifying plays over a 4-year test sample that was not a part of the data that was used to derive the model. The initial team ratings found one team with significant value to win the NCAA Tournament.   Best Bet – 0.5 Stars on WEST VIRGINIA to Win NCAA Tournament …

New College Basketball Model

New College Basketball model – 56.7% on 4 test seasons! When the 2020 college basketball season abruptly ended we set out to program a college basketball model to improve upon the methods I’ve been using for years, which were less sophisticated in terms of priors and in-season blending with priors, while automating the player adjustment factors that I’ve been calculating …

2019 College Season Win Totals

  The following are the 8 College Season Win Totals Best Bets that I released to my subscribers on Monday morning, August 26. Due to the past success of my season win totals (31-17-1, including 18-8-1 the last 6 years), the odds on these moved significantly and to the point where there is not enough value to play most of them. …

Week 2 Preseason NFL Situation – 2019

Winning preseason games often comes down to which coach/team is more motivated to win and the second week of the preseason offers a good investment opportunity based on motivation. In general, most NFL coaches don’t really care about winning a preseason game, but I’ve found that teams that lose their first preseason game have been good bets against teams that …

NCAA Tournament Capsules West Region (2019)

  West Region   (1) Gonzaga (30-3) Gonzaga has been the 3rd best team in the nation this season in my compensated ratings behind Duke (games with Zion only) and Virginia and the Zags are the only team to beat Duke when the Blue Devils had all of their stars playing. However, the Bulldogs also lost their other two games …

NCAA Tournament Capsules South Region

  South Region   (1) Virginia (29-3) Virginia enters the tournament with the best compensated net efficiency in the nation, although they’d be second to Duke when excluding the Blue Devils’ games without Zion Williamson. Speaking of Duke, two of Virginia’s three losses were to Duke by a combined 12 points, but 3-point variance had a lot to do with …

NCAA Tournament Capsules Midwest Region (2019)

  Midwest Region (1) North Carolina (27-6) North Carolina is a deserving #1 seed and the Tarheels have a pretty easy path to the regional final but their only win against a healthy elite team was at home against Gonzaga in a game they made a randomly high 52% of their 3-point shots. Their two wins against Duke were games …

NCAA Tournament Capsules East Region (2019)

East Region   (1) Duke (29-5) Duke is certainly deserving of the #1 overall seed, as they are 24-1 when they have all of their starters healthy, with their only loss by 2 points to Gonzaga (due to negative 3-point variance) and quality wins over high seeded teams Kentucky, Auburn, Texas Tech, Florida State twice, Virginia twice and North Carolina. …