College Basketball

Dr. Bob

College Basketball Best Bets: 976-808-29 on a Star Basis for +81.05 Stars the last 4 seasons!

I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+368.8 Stars the last 23 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting. The first season using that predictive matchup model produced very good results on Best Bets (55.7%) despite winning only 40% of the close games (bets decided by less than 3 points).

2020-21 Season: Best Bets are 165-131-3 and Opinions are 153-131-5

Day and Season Recap Below.

More information on the new College Basketball model.

See season to date results below in the daily recap section.

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  • Dr. Bob College Basketball Season

    2020-21 Season: Best Bets were 165-131-3 and Opinions were 153-131-5

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Daily/Season to Date Recap

2020-21 College Basketball Recap

2020-21 Season: Best Bets: 165-131-3 for +16.15 Stars and Opinions were 153-131-5

I had no Best Bet, Opinion or lean on the Championship game and -0.5 Stars was included in the final Stars tally due to a futures play on West Virginia to win the NCAA Tournament at 28 to 1 odds prior to the season starting.

Best Bets finished the season on an 87-53 run and were 165-131-3 (55.7%) for the season despite being just 18-27-3 on games decided by less than 3 points (8-9 on games decided by exactly 3 and 3-2 on games decided by overtime), and the average line differential on the 299 Best Bets is +1.81 points, which is still good (projects to 57.1% winners). The Opinions were a profitable 153-131-5 for the season.

Closing Line Value:

Most of the plays are released in the morning to take advantage of softer lines and the release line on the Best Bets beat the closing line 79% of the time while the average closing line value on the 299 Best Bets was 0.99 points and 3.56% towards your chance of winning.

The results of the 2020-21 Best Bets based on the closing line would have still been 55.2% winners, which is not much lower than the actual Best Bet win percentage of 55.7%, but that small difference was a function of how few close games we won this past season. In a normal season the difference between betting games as they are being released using our text service and betting them later would be greater – although still profitable.

The Opinions also had significant closing line value, as the totals beat the closing line 83% of the time with an average closing line value of 4.82% per bet while the side Opinions beat the closing line 72% of the time with an average CLV of 2.04%.

I realize that my reputation and following is part of the reason that the plays achieved closing line value, but the amount of CLV is an indication that the model is on the right side more often than not and I expect that to be the case going forward.

Best Bets (120-98-3 for +7.9 Stars, +1.49 average line differential)

Extra Game Best Bets (45-33 for +8.75 Stars, +2.71 Avg. Line Diff)

Side Opinions (67-56-3, +0.48 Avg. Line Diff)

Totals Opinions (85-75-2, +2.78 Avg. Line Diff)

Futures Plays (0-1 for -0.50 Stars)

New College Basketball Model

I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+368.8 Stars the last 23 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting. The first season using that predictive matchup model produced very good results on Best Bets (55.7%) despite winning only 40% of the close games (bets decided by less than 3 points).

More information on the new College Basketball model.

Free Analysis

My Free Basketball Analysis is a profitable 802-715-20 the previous 7 basketball seasons – and 1707-1539-59 over the previous 15 seasons.

Check my Basketball Free Analysis page around 3:30 pm Pacific each day during the basketball season.

College Basketball Blog