Dr. Bob
2024-25 College Best Plays: 872-742-16 (504-446-8 Best Bets, 368-296-8 Opinions) – Daily and Season Recap below.
2023-24 College Basketball Plays: 544-459-16
2022-23 College Basketball Plays: 590-482-17
College Basketball Best Bets: 1992-1650-66 on a Star Basis for +171.5 Stars the last 7 seasons!
I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+459.3 Stars the last 26 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting.
The first four seasons using that predictive matchup model produced good results on Best Bets (1109-904-34, 55.1%) despite being an unlucky 8-18-2 on games decided by overtime (instead of 17-9-2 on those games had they been graded at the end of regulation) and winning only 46% of the close games (143-165-33 on Best Bets decided by less than 3 points) instead of the 50% expected in the long run.
Had we won 50% of the close games and had those games altered due to OT (i.e. dogs not covering) produce the results they would have in regulation then we’d have been 56.1% winners the last four seasons, which is incredibly good in Basketball. The new model has won despite the bad luck – particularly in the last two seasons (+77.25 Stars on Best Bets) and I expect even better results in the future.
Four Seasons with new matchup model: Best Bets are 1109-904-34 (55.1%) and Opinions are 904-772-28 (53.9%).
See season to date results below in the daily recap section.
Packages Available
Daily/Season to Date Recap
April 2 and Season Recap
The Wednesday Best Bets were 0-0 for 0 Stars and the Opinions were 1-0-1.
Opinion Side (670) Boise State (-7 -115) (won by 7, PUSH) (Crown)
Opinion Side (671) Nebraska (-8) (won by 12, WON) (Crown)
Thus far, the NCAA Tournament/NIT/CBI/Crown Best Bets are 18-9, the Opinions are 15-6-1, and Leans are 8-4.
For the season the Best Bets are 504-446-8 for +10.65 Stars and the Opinions are 368-296-8 (+21.7 Stars with each Opinion at 0.5 Stars).
It’s been a profitable season despite being an extremely unlucky 6-15-1 for -10.35 Stars on Best Bets decided due to overtime (instead of 16-6 for +9.4 Stars had those games been graded at the end of regulation), which is a swing of -19.75 Stars. And Best Bets decided by less than 3 points are just 77-81-8 for -11.1 Stars instead of being even on close games (for -8.3 Stars), which would be expected in the long run. That’s 22.55 Stars lost due to bad luck this season.
The Best Bets are just +10.65 Stars (and +21.7 Stars on Opinions) due to that horrible luck and we’d be at +33.3 Stars on Best Bets with neutral luck (i.e. going 16-6 on those OT games instead of 6-15-1 and being 50% on close games). The luck on Opinions has been even (even in OT decisions and barely under 50% in close decisions).
Best Bet Sides (294-267-8 for -3.65 Stars)
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Best Bet Totals (100-89 for +3.2 Stars)
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Extra Game Best Bet Sides (71-61 for +3.9 Stars)
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Extra Game Best Bet Totals (39-29 for +7.2 Stars)
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Opinion Sides (233-196-5)
Opinion Side (670) Boise State (-7 -115) (won by 7, PUSH) (Crown)
Opinion Side (671) Nebraska (-8) (won by 12, WON) (Crown)
Opinion Totals (63-47)
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Extra Game Opinion Sides (51-40-2)
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Extra Game Opinion Totals (20-13)
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