College Basketball

Dr. Bob

2022-23 College Basketball Plays: 590-482-17

2023-24 College Basketball Plays: 522-443-16 (Daily and Season Recap below)

College Basketball Best Bets: 1697-1416-59 on a Star Basis for +134.15 Stars the last 6 seasons!

I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+421.9 Stars the last 25 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting.

The first three seasons using that predictive matchup model produced good results on Best Bets (817-675-27, 54.8%) despite winning only 45% of the close games (108-132-27 on Best Bets decided by less than 3 points) instead of the 50% expected in the long run, and being an unlucky 8-13-2 on games decided by overtime (instead of 13-9-1 on those games had they been graded at the end of regulation).

Had we won 50% of the close games and had those games altered due to OT (i.e. dogs not covering) produce the results they would have in regulation then we’d have been 55.9% winners the last three seasons, which is incredibly good in Basketball. The new model has won despite the bad luck and I expect even better results in the future.

Last 3 Seasons with new matchup model: Best Bets are 817-675-27 and Opinions are 642-542-18

See season to date results below in the daily recap section.

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Daily/Season to Date Recap

CBB Recap 3/16

The Saturday Best Bets were 1-1 for -0.1 Stars and the Opinions were 2-2.

Howard (a Best Bet at -3.5) was up by 4 and fouled an opponent taking a running 3-pointer with 2 seconds left (I’d say about a 10% chance of making). He made 1 of 3 free throws to give us a 1/2 point loss. Why even get close to a guy in that situation? Just let him take a wild 3-pointer and the game is over. We continue to lose close games in ridiculous ways.

The record on Bets decided by less than 3 points is now just 60-79-16 and bets decided due to overtime being 9-13 (instead of 13-8-1 had those games been graded at the end of regulation). It’s been another good season but I’m still frustrated by the negative luck.

For the season, the Best Bets are 282-221-7 for +38.4 Stars and the Opinions are 240-222-9.

All Basketball plays are 522-443-16 despite Bets decided by less than 3 points being just 60-79-16 and bets decided due to overtime being 9-13 (instead of 13-8-1 had those games been graded at the end of regulation). The record would be a very good 536-428-17 (55.6%) if we were close to even in close games (69-70-16) and were 13-8-1 on the decisions altered due to overtime instead of being 9-13 on those games. It’s been frustrating but at least the trend continues to be up since starting the season 56-61-5 on all plays (466-382-11 since 11/24).

Best Bet Sides (133-95-5 for +28.0 Stars)

(604) *Yale (-2) (won by 12, WON)

Best Bet Totals (75-59 for +10.05 Stars)

None

Extra Game Best Bet Sides (43-36-2 for +3.35 Stars)

(306514) *Howard (-3.5) (won by 3, LOST)

Extra Game Best Bet Totals (31-31 for -3.0 Stars)

None

Opinion Sides (118-127-6)

Opinion Side (609) Wisconsin (+6) (won by 1 in OT. WON)

Opinion Side (612) Illinois (-4) (won by 11, WON)

Opinion Side (624) San Diego State (-2) (lost by 7, LOST)

Opinion Totals (74-45-1)

None

Extra Game Opinion Sides (30-30-2)

Opinion Side (306512) Vermont (-7.5) (won by 5, LOST)

Extra Game Opinion Totals (18-20)

None


2022-23 CBB Season Recap

It was a disappointing March but it was still a very profitable season with the Best Bets being +39.9 Stars of profit while the opinions added another 10.9 Stars if played for 0.5 Star each, as recommended.

For the season the Best Bets are 302-240-10 for +39.9 Stars and the Opinions are 288-242-7.

Best Bet Sides (155-127-8 for +15.25 Stars)

Best Bet Totals (68-55-1 for +9.45 Stars)

Extra Game Best Bet Sides: (57-44-1 for +8.55 Stars)

Extra Game Best Bet Totals (22-14 for +6.65 Stars)

Opinion Sides: (174-153-6)

Opinion Totals: (52-45-1)

Extra Game Opinion Sides: (50-35)

Extra Game Opinion Totals (12-9)

New College Basketball Model

I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+368.8 Stars the last 23 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting. The first season using that predictive matchup model produced very good results on Best Bets (55.7%) despite winning only 40% of the close games (bets decided by less than 3 points).

More information on the new College Basketball model.