College Basketball Best Bets: 1384-1166-49 on a Star Basis for +94.25 Stars the last 5 seasons!
I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+382.0 Stars the last 24 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting.
The first two seasons using that predictive matchup model produced good results on Best Bets (54.2%) despite winning only 44% of the close games (70-89-17 on Best Bets decided by less than 3 points) instead of the 50% expected in the long run, and being an unlucky 4-8-1 on games decided by overtime (instead of 9-4 on those games had they been graded at the end of regulation).
Had we won 50% of the close games and had those games altered due to OT (i.e. dogs not covering) produce the results they would have in regulation then we’d have been 55.7% winners the last two seasons, which is incredibly good in Basketball. The new model won despite the bad luck and I expect even better results in the future.
Last 2 Seasons with new matchup model: Best Bets are 515-435-17 and Opinions are 364-300-11
See season to date results below in the daily recap section.
Daily/Season to Date Recap
Monday, April 4 Recap
The Monday Opinion on North Carolina +4.5 won. NCAA Tournament/NIT Best Bets were 8-5 (10-6 on a Star Basis) for +3.35 Stars while the Opinions were 11-8 (10-7 NCAA & 1-1 NIT).
For the season, the Best Bets were 350-304-14 for +13.2 Stars and the Opinions were 211-169-6.
We were just 52-62-14 on Best Bets that were decided by less than 3 points and 1-6-1 on Best Bets decided by Overtime (0-3-1 on 4 underdogs, 3 losses in OT on unders that would have won in regulation and one win in OT on an over), instead of being 7-1 on those games (a difference of 15.75 Stars). The Opinions are 25-25-6 on close games and 3-2 in games decided by OT.
It was a down season on the Best Bets, but the 15.75 Stars swing on games changed due to overtime really hurt and we were also 10 games below .500 in close games. Overall, the model performed at the same level that it did in the 2020-21 season (55.7% on Best Bets, 53.9% on Opinions, and 54.4% combined), as all Best Bets and Opinions were 54.3% winners despite the bad luck. I expect a much more profitable season next year.
Best Bet Sides (165-141-9 for +7.05 Stars)
Best Bet Totals (92-82-4 for +2.7 Stars)
Extra Game Best Bet Sides (56-53-1 for -2.85 Stars)
Extra Game Best Bet Totals (37-28 for +6.3 Stars)
Opinion Sides (106-96-3)
Opinion Totals (63-50-2)
Extra Game Opinion Sides (29-17-1)
Extra Game Opinion Totals (18-11)
2020-21 College Basketball Recap
2020-21 Season: Best Bets: 165-131-3 for +16.15 Stars and Opinions were 153-131-5
I had no Best Bet, Opinion or lean on the Championship game and -0.5 Stars was included in the final Stars tally due to a futures play on West Virginia to win the NCAA Tournament at 28 to 1 odds prior to the season starting.
Best Bets finished the season on an 87-53 run and were 165-131-3 (55.7%) for the season despite being just 18-27-3 on games decided by less than 3 points (8-9 on games decided by exactly 3 and 3-2 on games decided by overtime), and the average line differential on the 299 Best Bets is +1.81 points, which is still good (projects to 57.1% winners). The Opinions were a profitable 153-131-5 for the season.
Closing Line Value:
Most of the plays are released in the morning to take advantage of softer lines and the release line on the Best Bets beat the closing line 89% of the time while the average closing line value on the Best Bets was 1.25 points and 3.79% towards your chance of winning.
The Opinions also had significant closing line value, beating the closing line 78% of the time with an average closing line value of 2.34% per bet.
I realize that my reputation and following is part of the reason that the plays achieved closing line value, but the amount of CLV is an indication that the model is on the right side more often than not and I expect that to be the case going forward.
Best Bets (120-98-3 for +7.9 Stars, +1.49 average line differential)
Extra Game Best Bets (45-33 for +8.75 Stars, +2.71 Avg. Line Diff)
Side Opinions (67-56-3, +0.48 Avg. Line Diff)
Totals Opinions (85-75-2, +2.78 Avg. Line Diff)
Futures Plays (0-1 for -0.50 Stars)
New College Basketball Model
I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+368.8 Stars the last 23 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting. The first season using that predictive matchup model produced very good results on Best Bets (55.7%) despite winning only 40% of the close games (bets decided by less than 3 points).
My Free Basketball Analysis is a profitable 802-715-20 the previous 7 basketball seasons – and 1707-1539-59 over the previous 15 seasons.
Check my Basketball Free Analysis page around 3:30 pm Pacific each day during the basketball season.