2022-23 College Basketball Plays: 589-477-17 (recap below)
College Basketball Best Bets: 1384-1166-49 on a Star Basis for +94.25 Stars the last 5 seasons!
I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+382.0 Stars the last 24 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting.
The first two seasons using that predictive matchup model produced good results on Best Bets (54.2%) despite winning only 44% of the close games (70-89-17 on Best Bets decided by less than 3 points) instead of the 50% expected in the long run, and being an unlucky 4-8-1 on games decided by overtime (instead of 9-4 on those games had they been graded at the end of regulation).
Had we won 50% of the close games and had those games altered due to OT (i.e. dogs not covering) produce the results they would have in regulation then we’d have been 55.7% winners the last two seasons, which is incredibly good in Basketball. The new model won despite the bad luck and I expect even better results in the future.
Last 2 Seasons with new matchup model: Best Bets are 515-435-17 and Opinions are 364-300-11
See season to date results below in the daily recap section.
Dr. Bob College Basketball Season
All Plays are 879-735-28 the last 2 seasons with new matchup model
Receive all of my NCAA Basketball Best Bets and Opinions through the 2023 NCAA Tournament Championship game – and predictions on every NCAA Tournament game.
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Daily/Season to Date Recap
Thursday CBB Recap
The Thursday Best Bets were 0-2 for -2.3 Stars and the Opinions were 0-0.
NCAA/NIT/CBI plays are now 14-13, going 8-7 on Best Bets (9-7 on Stars) for +1.15 Stars and 6-6 on Opinions.
For the season the Best Bets are 301-238-10 for +41.1 Stars and the Opinions are 288-239-7.
Best Bet Sides (155-125-8 for +17.45 Stars)
(637) *Michigan State (-1 -115) (lost in OT, LOST)
(642) *UCLA (1.5 -115) (lost by 3, LOST)
Best Bet Totals (67-55-1 for +8.45 Stars)
Extra Game Best Bet Sides: (57-44-1 for +8.55 Stars)
Extra Game Best Bet Totals (22-14 for +6.65 Stars)
Opinion Sides: (174-150-6)
Opinion Totals: (52-45-1)
Extra Game Opinion Sides: (50-35)
Extra Game Opinion Totals (12-9)
New College Basketball Model
I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+368.8 Stars the last 23 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting. The first season using that predictive matchup model produced very good results on Best Bets (55.7%) despite winning only 40% of the close games (bets decided by less than 3 points).