College Basketball

Dr. Bob

2024-25 College Best Plays: 526-432-10 (305-256-6 Best Bets, 221-176-4 Opinions) – Daily and Season Recap below.

2023-24 College Basketball Plays: 544-459-16 

2022-23 College Basketball Plays: 590-482-17

College Basketball Best Bets: 1992-1650-66 on a Star Basis for +171.5 Stars the last 7 seasons!

I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+459.3 Stars the last 26 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting.

The first four seasons using that predictive matchup model produced good results on Best Bets (1109-904-34, 55.1%) despite being an unlucky 8-18-2 on games decided by overtime (instead of 17-9-2 on those games had they been graded at the end of regulation) and winning only 46% of the close games (143-165-33 on Best Bets decided by less than 3 points) instead of the 50% expected in the long run.

Had we won 50% of the close games and had those games altered due to OT (i.e. dogs not covering) produce the results they would have in regulation then we’d have been 56.1% winners the last four seasons, which is incredibly good in Basketball. The new model has won despite the bad luck – particularly in the last two seasons (+77.25 Stars on Best Bets) and I expect even better results in the future.

Four Seasons with new matchup model: Best Bets are 1109-904-34 (55.1%) and Opinions are 894-772-28 (53.7%).

See season to date results below in the daily recap section.

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Daily/Season to Date Recap

February 6 and Season Recap

The Thursday Best Bets were just 4-7 for -3.65 Stars and the Opinions were 4-4.

It was a tough night that was made worse by losing another underdog due to overtime and also going 0-2 on Best Bets decided by less than 3 points (and losing an opinion by 1/2 a point).

We’re now 3-8-1 for -5.7 Stars on Best Bets decided due to overtime (instead of 9-3 for +5.7 Stars had those games been graded at the end of regulation), which is a swing of -11.4 Stars, and Best Bets decided by less than 3 points are just 40-51-5.

For the season the Best Bets are 305-256-6 for +26.35 Stars and the Opinions are 221-176-4 (+13.7 Stars with each Opinion at 0.5 Stars).

We’re having another good season despite some bad luck. We’re just 3-8-1 for -5.7 Stars on Best Bets decided due to overtime (instead of 9-3 for +5.7 Stars had those games been graded at the end of regulation), which is a swing of -11.4 Stars, and Best Bets decided by less than 3 points are just 40-51-5 for -15.1 Stars instead of being even on close games (for -4.8 Stars), which would be expected in the long run.

The Best Bets are +26.35 Stars despite that horrible luck and we’d be at +48.05 Stars on Best Bets with neutral luck (i.e. going 8-3 on those OT games instead of 3-7-1 and being 50% on close games).

Best Bet Sides (176-147-6 for +17.05 Stars)

(767) *North Carolina A&T (+20 -115) (lost by 3, WON)

(773) *Hampton (+4 -105) (lost by 5, LOST)

(775) *Sam Houston State (+1.5) (lost by 3 in OT, LOST)

(791) *Marist (-5.5 -115) (lost by 3, LOST)

(804) *Merrimack (-7.5) (won by 5, LOST)

(806) *Morehead State (-2.5 -105) (lost by 29, LOST)

(834) *San Francisco (+6 -105) (won by 1, WON)

(850) *California Baptist (-12.5) (lost by 3, LOST)

Best Bet Totals (58-46 for +7.5 Stars)

(768) *Under (153.5) NC A&T vs Charleston (129 points, WON)

Extra Game Best Bet Sides (50-44 for +1.6 Stars)

(306579) *Jacksonville (-8.5) (won by 9, WON)

(306581) *Le Moyne (+3 -105) (lost by 8, LOST)

Extra Game Best Bet Totals (21-19 for +0.2 Stars)

None

Opinion Sides (131-106-3)

Opinion Side (772) Delaware (+6) (lost by 10, LOST)

Opinion Side (796) Kennesaw State (-1.5) (won by 7, WON)

Opinion Side (822) Utah Valley (-7 -115) (won by 21, WON)

Opinion Side (837) Sacramento State (+8.5) (lost by 3, WON)

Opinion Side (859) Washington State (+7.5) (lost by 8, LOST)

Opinion Totals (41-33)

Opinion Total (783) Over (138.5) Elon vs Campbell (134 points, LOST)

Opinion Total (793) Over (146.5) Maryland vs Ohio State (143 points, LOST)

Extra Game Opinion Sides (35-27-1)

Opinion Side (306583) LIU (+1) (won by 13, WON)

Extra Game Opinion Totals (14-10)

None