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Lean – Under (44.5) – SEATTLE (-3.5/-3) vs New England

New England Preview

The Patriots went 17-4 last season, including their 4 postseason games, but they weren’t as good as they appeared to be. New England played by far the easiest schedule in the league and their +10.0 regular season scoring margin was 3rd best in the league. However, their adjusted scoring margin was 6th best and they’re projected to be the 13th best team in the league based on the betting market ratings. I think they’ll be better than that.

The offense flourished with the vast improvement of second year quarterback Drake Maye, who was 2nd in the MVP voting after completing 72% of his passes and averaging 7.8 yards per pass play with just 8 interceptions thrown. Normally, regression towards the mean would be expected after such a standout performance and the release of top receiver Stefon Diggs, who averaged 9.9 yards on his 102 targets (caught 85 of those targets), but the Patriots added star WR A.J. Brown to take his spot. Brown averaged a career-low 8.3 yards per target in a dysfunctional season in Philadelphia, but he has a 9.8 career YPT average, which is significantly better than Diggs’ 8.6 YPT career average. Diggs’ 9.9 YPT last season has more to do with Maye, as all the Patriots’ wide receivers combined for 10.1 YPT in 2025. Brown is an upgrade and the addition of free agent Romeo Doubs also helps.

It will still be a challenge for Maye to improve upon last season’s raw metrics given the much tougher schedule he’ll face and a likely regression to the mean in the percentage of big plays, which led the league last season. Overall, the Patriots ranked 2nd in EPA per play on offense in the regular season but ranked 8th in success rate, which is more indicative of future performance. When including the playoff games and adjusting for opposing defenses the Patriots’ offense was 4.3 points better than average based on EPA but was just 3.0 points better than average based on more predictive metrics.

New England’s defense metrics were barely better than average in the regular season after adjusting for the easy slate of opposing offenses that they faced but that unit played extremely well in their four postseason games and overall, the Pats’ defense was about 3 points better than average in 20 games (I excluded the Denver game in bad weather against a backup QB). New safety Kevin Byard is considered a significant upgrade over Jaylinn Hawkins and new OLB Dre’Mont Jones may also be a slight upgrade over K’Lavon Chaisson. The Patriots should have a top 10 defense despite facing better opposition this season.

Edge Harold Landry is out to start the season and I value him worth 0.4 points over replacement Elijah Ponder, who showed some promise as a rookie last season with 4 sacks but isn’t as proven as Landry, who has averaged 9.3 sacks the last 3 seasons after missing the 2022 season (had 12 sacks in 2021 before the ACL injury).

Seattle Preview

The Super Bowl champs return nearly intact this season, with the notable exception of RB Kenneth Walker, who cashed in his Super Bowl MVP award into free agent dollars. Zach Charbonnet doesn’t have the explosiveness that Walker had but I think rookie 1st round pick RB Jadarian Price is going to be a good player and starts the season as the featured back with Charbonnet still recovering from an ACL injury.

Quarterback Sam Darnold averaged a very good 7.7 yards per pass play in the regular season and his career resurrection probably has more to do with being able to throw the ball to Justin Jefferson in Minnesota and to Jaxson Smith-Njigba with the Seahawks. Smith-Njigba averaged an incredible 11.0 yards on the 163 regular-season balls targeted at him. The other 3 wide receivers combined for a mediocre 8.0 yards per target, but Darnold’s numbers should continue to be good as long as he’s got the NFL Offensive Player of the Year on the field. It wasn’t all good for Darnold, as his 20 turnovers led the league – although I expect that number to drop a bit this season (he had 16 turnovers in 2024 with Minnesota), which should boost Seattle’s mediocre EPA per play. The Seahawks were just 13th in EPA per play despite being 7th in success rate.

The Seahawks’ defense became dominant from week 6 on after cornerback Devon Witherspoon joined the lineup after missing the first 5 games while finishing the rehab for his MCL injury. Free safety Coby Bryant is now with Chicago, but Ty Okada and Julian Love combined for 19 starts last season. Love was outstanding last season and having him for a full season (he missed 9 games) is more of a plus than losing Bryant is a negative.

Despite the talent being basically the same, it is unlikely that the Seahawks’ defense will be as good as they were last season. Defenses tend to regress towards the mean from season to season much more than offenses do. Seattle is clearly one of the top defenses in the league but is considered to be only a few points better than average by the betting markets heading into the season.

Game Preview

In this Super Bowl rematch my ratings favor the Seahawks by 4.0 points with a total of 43.7 points. This game applies to a 51-29 week 1 Under angle. I’ll lean Under 44 points or more.

Game Analysis view analysis

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) vs San Francisco

San Francisco Preview

The 49ers managed to go 12-5 and outscore their opponents by 3.9 points per game (against a tougher than average schedule) despite injuries to their star players on both sides of the ball.

On offense, quarterback Brock Purdy played in just 9 games, elite TE George Kittle (9.1 yards per target) missed 7 games, and played hurt in others, and their most productive WR Ricky Pearsall (10.0 YPT) missed 8 games. On defense, the Niners lost 5-time pro-bowler edge rusher Nick Bosa early in the season (played just 3 games) and elite LB Fred Warner (4 x All-Pro) early in week 6. That is 5 of the 49ers’ best players all out for half a season or more.

Pearsall and Kendrick Bourne (10.4 YPT on 53 targets) were the only two better than average wide receivers last season, but Bourne left via free agency and Pearsall did not recover properly from his PCL injury and is out for the season after having surgery. Veterans Mike Evans and Christian Kirk were added to the team, but both are coming off really bad seasons. Evans suffered through an injury plagued 2025 campaign in which he averaged a horrible 5.9 yards per target (not below 8.9 YPT in the 7 seasons prior) and it remains to be seen if Evans can return to form that was close to his level a couple of years ago. Kirk had a disappointing one-year stint in Houston (4.6 YPT), but a resurrection of previous form would be an upgrade over Jauan Jennings, who averaged only 7.1 YPT. However, without Pearsall and Bourne the San Francisco receiving corps is a potential issue if Evans and Kirk don’t return to their old form and quality depth is lacking. Brock Purdy averaged 7.2 yards per pass play last season, which is still very good (6.0 yppp is average) but below his career average of 7.8 yppp. I’ll project him to be a bit lower this season given the uncertainty at the wide receiver position.

Running back Christian McCaffrey is still valuable in the pass game but he averaged just 3.9 yards per rush last season and it’s uncertain if his running form will return to pre-injury levels (he missed most of the 2024 season). I expect at least a slight improvement in the run game with a better season from McCaffrey and without Mac Jones’ horrible rushing numbers when he was starting in place of Purdy.

San Francisco’s offense was 5.4 points per game better than average based on EPA, adjusted for opposing defenses faced (1.4 ppg better than average) and the average scoring conditions in their games and they were 3.7 points better than average in adjusted points per game. The receiving corps looks worse but Purdy at quarterback is better than the Purdy/Mac Jones combination of last season and McCaffrey should have a better season running the ball. The 49ers should fall in the 6th to 10th best offense range this season.

San Francisco’s defense fell apart with early season injuries to their two elite defenders but they were still better than average in points per game allowed (21.8 ppg). Their expected points added metrics weren’t as good (4.3 ppg worse than average adjusted for schedule and average scoring conditions). There is a chance that the Niners could be a top 10 defense with the addition of ILB Dre Greenlaw and with Bosa and Warner playing at their previous high level, but both are coming off injury and it’s more reasonable to assume that the defense will rank closer to the middle of the pack.

Los Angeles Rams Preview

The Rams were undoubtedly the best team in the league last season, but a fluke week 16 loss to the Seahawks gave home field advantage in the playoffs to their division rival and they lost the conference championship game in Seattle 27-31 despite outgaining the Seahawks 479 yards to 396 yards (special teams cost them the game). Los Angeles outscored their opponents by an average of 10.1 points in the regular season and they are a better team on paper heading into 2026.

The offense was the best in the league last season, led by MVP QB Matthew Stafford, All-Pro WR Puka Nacua and a great offensive line that returns intact. The Rams’ defense was a top 10 unit despite mediocre play at the outside cornerback positions. LA addressed that by acquiring both of the Kansas City Chiefs’ two young cornerbacks, two-time Pro-Bowler Trent McDuffie, who has allowed just 6.1 yards per target in his career, and Jaylen Watson. Watson was nothing special last season, but he was good in both ’23 and ’24. The big news, of course, is the trade for Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, who recorded 23 sacks last season for the Browns. Garrett made the Rams’ defensive line the best in the league and now all-time great DT Aaron Donald has officially come out of retirement (although he’ll miss the week 1 game). It’s unlikely that Donald will play at the level he was playing when he retired a few years ago, but I don’t think he’d come back unless he thought he could still be good.

The Rams had the league’s most talented defense before Donald’s return but the best defenses in the league heading into a season rarely get a market rating more than 3 points better than average to start the season and I have the Rams at 2.8 ppg better than average for now.

The Rams are rated as the best team in the league to start the season.

Game Preview

There is an interesting, and potentially significant, difference in the way these teams are treating their travel. The 49ers left for Australia on Wednesday, September 2nd, more than a full week before this game, to help them acclimate to the time zone difference. The Rams, meanwhile, are arriving the night before the game. The 49ers will have their body clocks assimilated to Australian time (10:35 am) when the game begins while the Rams’ approach is to have the players’ body clocks on Pacific time, which would be 5:35 pm PT at kickoff. The consensus is that performance is better for players playing early evening in regard to their body clock than in the mid-morning and it’s hard to argue the Rams’ preparation for international games, as they are 3-0 with a total scoring margin of 92-17 in such games under coach Sean McVay, including a 35-7 whipping of Jacksonville in England last season.

My ratings favor the Rams by 4.6 points and a total of 49.1 points with Bosa and Kittle both expected to play less snaps than usual.

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Game Analysis view analysis

CINCINNATI (-3.5) vs Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Preview

Tampa Bay has been living in mediocrity for the last 4 seasons, and this looks like another average team with a decent chance of winning a bad division.

Baker Mayfield thrived in 2023 and 2024 with good offensive coordinators Dave Canales (’23) and Liam Coen (’24) but he fell to mediocrity last season with a new OC and nagging injuries. Baker has his 4th OC in 4 years in Tampa, as Zac Robinson takes over the attack. Robinson certainly didn’t stand out in his 2 years as OC in Atlanta, but I’ll project Mayfield to play at his career level, which would be about 0.8 points per game better than last year’s performance. Losing aging veteran WR Mike Evans certainly won’t be an issue given his lowly 5.9 yards per target last season and having Chris Godwin for a full season will help keep teams from double-teaming Emeka Ebguka as much as they did when Godwin was out last season (he started just 6 games).

RB Bucky Irving was horrible last season (3.4 ypr) after an eye-opening rookie season in 2024 (1122 yards at 5.4 ypr). I expect Irving to bounce back some this season, although he hasn’t performed well running outside zone plays that new OC Zac Robinson likes to feature. The offensive line wasn’t as good with star LT Tristan Wirfs missing 5 games and playing with injuries in others

Defensively the Bucs were a bit below average defensively for the 3rd consecutive season and losing long-time LB Lavonte David to retirement and star CB Jamel Dean to free agency. David has captained the defense for 12 seasons and was still an excellent run defender in his final year before retiring. He’ll be missed in run-support and leadership while losing Dean is even more of a blow. Dean is one of the league’s best cover cornerbacks and last season he allowed just 49% completions on passes targeted at him. His 6.7 yards per target allowed in his 7-year career is also extremely good for an outside cornerback. According to NextGen stats, Dean’s -28.3 target EPA was the best in the league among outside cornerbacks. Replacing that with an average cornerback would be 1.8 points per game based on the 59 targets against Dean last season.

While the Buccaneers’ run defense and coverage will be worse, the pass rush should be better with rookie Rueben Bain jr and Al-Quadin Muhammed (11 sacks for Detroit last season) added to the edge rush group. Tampa Bay was below average in pressure rate and sacks last season but could be a bit better than average in those categories this season.

Cincinnati Preview

Cincinnati combined a horrible defense with an injury-plagued season from star quarterback Joe Burrow, who started just 8 games, which led to a horrible 6-11 record.

The Bengals averaged 26.8 points in Burrow’s 8 starts (against teams that combined to allow an average of 22.2 ppg for the season and scoring conditions that were 0.3 ppg worse than average for each offense. In the last two seasons the Bengals have averaged 27.4 ppg in Burrow’s 25 starts, which equates to 4.7 points per game better than average adjusted for opposing defenses faced and average scoring conditions. All the starters are back on the offensive side of the ball so forecasting the Bengals to be 4.7 points better than average team offensively is reasonable. However, I’m going to factor in some regression and rate the Bengals at 3.3 points better than average offensively to start the season, which is a bit higher than their betting market rating.

The Bengals’ defense was once again horrible, as they ranked 29th in EPA per play allowed and 30th in points per game allowed (28.9 ppg). The good news is that some young players got better as the season progressed and the Bengals were decent defensively in their final 7 games, allowing just 22.6 ppg. They did face Miami, Arizona and Cleveland during that stretch, but they also faced New England, Buffalo and Baltimore twice (with Lamar Jackson at QB in both games). That improvement was without star Trey Hendrickson, which is a good sign given that he is now with the Ravens. Late-season improvement is certainly no indication that things would improve much so management added veteran talent.

To try to fix the defense the Bengals traded for run-stuffing nose tackle Dexter Lawrence, signed edge rusher Boye Mafe, S Bryan Cook, S Kyle Dugger, and DT Jonathan Allen. Mafe, Cook, and Dugger are nothing special (although they are upgrades) but Lawrence and Allen give the Bengals one of the best interior defensive line tandems in the league. Over the last 5 seasons Lawrence ranks 4th in pressures while getting double-teamed and Allen ranks 5th on that list. You can’t double-team both, so I expect the Bengals to get a lot of pressure up the middle on opposing quarterbacks this season. The rest of the defense is mostly below average, but the Bengals should be much closer to an average defense after last year’s horrible performance.

Game Preview

My ratings favor Cincinnati by 4.7 points with a total of 50.5 points. The Bengals have a history of slow starts with head coach Zac Taylor, as they are just 3-11 straight up the first two weeks of the season in Taylor’s 7 seasons while going 1-8 ATS in those games when favored or getting less than 3 points. The Bengals also apply to a 38-63-4 ATS week 1 angle. I’ll pass this game.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5) over Baltimore

Lean – Under (48)

Indianapolis Colts Preview

The betting market is pricing the Colts about 1 to 1.5 points below average, which I think is too low. They were a few points better than an average team last season, even with starting quarterback Daniel Jones missing nearly 5 games. Jones averaged 7.2 yards per pass play while ranking 6th in the NFL in expected points added per play and success rate.

There is still some skepticism about Jones given that he’d never been better than average in yards per pass play prior to last season in 6 years with the Giants. The talent and system are certainly better than Jones had in New York and having big play WR Alec Pierce to throw to can help a quarterback pad his stats. Pierce has led the NFL in yards per reception two years in a row (22.3 ypc in 2024 and 21.3 ypc in ’25) and he averaged 11.9 yards per target in each season. The other two wide receivers, Pittman and Downs, combined for just 6.8 yards per target last season, which is below average. So, perhaps Jones got a little better than his years in New York and the rest of the significant improvement can be attributed to having Pierce to throw to.

The concern is that Jones might regress from last year’s good numbers towards his career metrics, which are not nearly as good. I don’t think he’ll be as good as he was last season, but he should be a better than average quarterback with Pierce to throw to. The receiving corps lost Michael Pittman Jr. (just 7.1 yards per target but led the receivers in success rate) but veteran Keenan Allen has joined the team and will adequately fill the void.

The Colts were about 4.4 points better than average offensively last season, even with Jones missing nearly 5 games (the other two QBs combined for just 5.5 yards per pass play on 166 pass plays). Indy averaged 29.8 points in the 12 games with Jones at quarterback, excluding the game he got injured in (threw just 7 passes), which is close to 7 points better than average. I don’t think it’s a stretch to project the Colts to be a very good offense again if Jones is 100% (he reportedly looks great in camp) given that they also have a one of the league’s best running backs in Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 1585 yards at 4.9 yards per carry with 18 TD runs.

The Colts’ defense was below average last season but could be better with a full year of CB Sauce Gardner (who appeared in just 4 games after being acquired via trade) and Charvarius Ward (who played just 7 games). Those two help make the secondary a top-10 unit based on talent but the front 7 has bottom-10 talent. The Indianapolis defense projects to be in the middle of the pack.

The Colts should have a better than average offense and a mediocre defense, so I don’t agree with the negative market rating on them heading into the season.

Baltimore Ravens Preview

The Ravens were considered to be one the Super Bowl frontrunners heading into last season but they underperformed on both sides of the ball and missed the playoffs with an 8-9 record. The offensive dropoff was a function of Lamar Jackson not being healthy for most of the season, as he was playing at his normal MVP level before getting injured. Lamar was on the injury report in 12 of the team’s final 13 games.

The biggest impact of Jackson’ injuries was his running, as he averaged just 27 rush yards per game at 5.2 ypr, which is well below his 56 yards per game at 6.0 ypr career averages. Jackson’s passing numbers were still good at 8.4 yards per pass attempt, but his limited mobility led to a 10.7% sack rate, which is much higher than his 7.3% career sack rate. Jackson is tied with Aaron Rodgers for the all-time lead in passer rating so criticism of his passing by some is clearly unwarranted and the Ravens’ aerial attack should once again be among the best in the league if Jackson can average 8.4 ypa again while lowering his sack rate to his career norm. That’s not a stretch given that he’s averaged 8.43 ypa on 1233 pass attempts the last 3 years. Before his hamstring injury Jackson was leading the league in yards per attempt (9.1 ypa) and was #3 in expected points added per dropback and I see no reason why he won’t return to his normal MVP caliber level.

The Ravens have averaged 28.2 points per game in Lamar Jackson’s 100 regular season starts since his first season as the full-time starter (2019). If Jackson stays healthy this season they could approach that number, although I’m expecting Derrick Henry to start to decline as he’s at the age where running backs tend to fall off a cliff. Henry averaged 5.2 ypr last season (and 5.9 ypr in 2024 – his first season with the Ravens), but a drop to around 4.5 ypr should be expected, which would shave about a point per game from the Ravens’ offense.

While Jackson’s injuries were a legitimate reason for the offense underperforming last season, it was the defense that let the team down. The Ravens had a top-10 defense in 2024 and were expected to be even better last season. That was not the case. Baltimore was 18th in scoring defense, 18th in EPA allowed and 16th in success rate last season despite having good talent. That team lost star DT Nnamdi Madubuike to a neck injury in week 2 and his return, along with the signing of edge rusher Trey Hendrickson (17.5 sacks in both 2023 and 2024 with Cincy before an injury plagued down season last year), gives the Ravens one of the most talented defensive units in the league heading into this season.

While new DC Anthony Weaver’s team in Miami performed a bit better than projected in his two seasons, it will be new head coach Jesse Minter that will be calling the defensive plays. Minter did a great job as DC a Michigan before following Jim Harbaugh to LA to take over the Chargers’ defense. Minter’s defenses were the 6th best in the league over his two seasons (based on EPA and success rates) and allowed just 18.9 points per game (4 ppg better than an average team). It would not surprise me if the Ravens’ defense was that good given the talent on hand, but I’ll rate that unit at 2.4 points better than average heading into the season.

Game Preview

I would make this line Baltimore by 2.5 points with a total of 48.7 points, and I’ll lean with the Colts at +3.5 (even or better). I’ll also lean Under on the basis of an 82-49-3 week 1 Under angle.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – Under (41) – PITTSBURGH (-5.5/-6) vs Atlanta

Atlanta Preview

New head coach Kevin Stefanski would prefer to run the ball, as he did in his first 3 seasons at Cleveland when he had good running backs and competent quarterbacking. The Browns ranked 4^th, 6^th, and 3^rd in run-play percentage from 2020 through 2022 before RB Nick Chubb was injured (in week 2 of the 2023 season). Stefanski has the best running back in the league in Bijan Robinson and competent quarterbacks with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix. Both quarterbacks are a bit below average but are clearly better than what Stefanski had to work with in recent seasons with Cleveland). The Falcons already have a good offensive line and offensive line guru Bill Callahan was brought in to enhance that unit.

Unfortunately for the new coach both Penix and Tagovailoa are out for the week 1 game and veteran backup Cooper Rush will get the start. Rush isn’t bad for a backup, but his 5.4 career adjusted net yards per pass play (incorporates sacks, TD passes and interceptions) is significantly worse than Atlanta’s 6.2 ANYPP last season.

Drake London is a solid #1 wide receiver, and Kyle Pitts is a good pass-catching tight end, but the rest of the receivers are replacement level at best and the Falcons need to hope that 3^rd round draft pick Zachariah Branch is an upgrade (I don’t think he is). Stefanski’s offenses were mostly mediocre to bad in Cleveland (10^th in EPA/play in 2020 with Baker Mayfield and then 18^th and 15^th best in 2021 (Mayfield) and 2022 (mostly Jacoby Brissett with Deshaun Watson for 6 games).

The Falcons were 1.9 points worse than average last season based on compensated EPA per play and adjusted for scoring conditions, which were favorable considering that they played their home games in a dome.

This Falcons’ attack could be average if Tua regains his form or Penix improves some from last season, but more likely they’ll be ranked between 20^th and 25^th and a point or two worse than average. Tagovailoa was expected to be the starter to begin the season before he injured his back in practice this week. Tua’s numbers in Miami were mostly good but he had two great receivers to throw to (Hill and Waddle) and Drake London is the only proven wide receiver on the Falcons and TE Pitts averaged a model 7.9 yards per target last season.

Atlanta’s defense was solid last season, ranking in the middle of the pack in EPA per play and success rates, but I expect that unit to be worse this season. In addition to not having starting edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce (team-leading 10.5 sacks) to start the season (Walker tore his ACL and Pearce is suspended for the first 8 games), the two defenders that led the Falcons in pass-rush win rate (Kaden Elliss and Arnold Ebiketie) both left in free agency.

Atlanta is going to struggle to find a pass rush, and they don’t have a good enough secondary to overcome that weakness. The run defense was horrible last year and could be just as bad in 2026. The Falcons could be a bottom-5 defense in the first half of the season before likely improving a bit when Pearce returns from suspension.

Pittsburgh Preview

Pittsburgh has been wallowing in mediocrity for years and the management decided to finally move on from long-term head coach Mike Tomlin and hired veteran Mike McCarthy to take his place. McCarthy has a successful history with quarterback Aaron Rodgers but that was when Rodgers was in peak form and not a 42-year old sub-par quarterback. Rodgers was expected to be a game-manager on a team that was supposed to have a strong defense, but that plan didn’t work out as the Steelers allowed 23 points per game (17^th in the league) because they consistently fell apart in the 4^th quarter. Pittsburgh did have a great defense for 3 quarters last season (12.5 ppg allowed) but they gave up an incredibly bad 10.2 points per game in the 4^th quarter, which was the worst in the league.

Pittsburgh’s defense should be better this season, as they still have good talent and added former Bucs’ star CB Jamel Dean, who was the best cover-corner in the league last season. Dean, Joey Porter Jr., and Jalen Ramsey make up one of the best cornerback trios in the league. Pittsburgh gave up way too many big pass plays last season due to poor play at free safety but that should change with the acquisition of Jaquan Brisker. The Steelers were better when Jalen Ramsey played a safety position last season, as the defense allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempt with Ramsey at safety and 8.5 ypa when Ramsey was in the slot. That’s not because Ramsey is not a good slot corner (he allowed just 6.2 yards per target in to slot receivers and led all corners with 12 total QB pressures) but rather that opponents took advantage of a bad free safety. Brisker should fix that problem. Strong safety DeShon Elliott will start the season on the IR and will miss at least the first 4 games. Ramsey is listed as the slot corner, but he’ll play safety in the base defense while moving to the slot in the nickel package. Veteran S Rayshawn Jenkins, who isn’t much of a downgrade from Elliott, will play safety in nickel.

The offense was nothing special, but the Steelers were slightly better than average in scoring with 23.4 points per game and better than average in EPA per play relative to the opposing defenses faced and scoring conditions (0.3 ppg tougher than average). The offensive line should be a bit worse with Isaac Seumalo gone and below average players Spencer Anderson and Dylan Cook likely to start on the OL, but the Steelers should still be near the middle of the pack offensively. Pittsburgh is expected to be about 1.5 points per game worse than average offensively this season, but I can see a scenario where they’re around average again.

Game Preview

Cooper Rush is clearly worse than Tua Tagavailoa but the market only moved 2.5 points (from -3.5 to -6) and the total only moved 1 point (from 42 to 41). I get Rush between 2.5 and 4 points worse than Tua depending on what method I use, and I think the market should have at least moved 3 points to -6.5.

There is a chance the CB Joey Porter Jr. might sit out this game due to a contract dispute, and I’ll update the prediction if that is the case.

With Porter Jr. playing I’d get Pittsburgh by 7.4 points with a total of 39.5 points. Atlanta applies to a 76-32-3 ATS week 1 angle so I have no interest in the Steelers side but I will Lean under 41 points or more.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – HOUSTON (+1.5/+1) over Buffalo

Buffalo Bills Preview

The Bills have had elite offensive numbers in recent years despite having a below average group of receivers, which speaks to how good QB Josh Allen and RB James Cook are. The receiving corps should improve a bit with veteran DJ Moore joining the team, although he had a down year in for the Bears last season. Cook may not be able to match last season’s great numbers (1621 yards at 5.2 ypr) but he probably won’t fall off much. The Bills were about 4 points better offensively than average team last season after adjusting for schedule and average scoring conditions and they should be about the same this year.

Buffalo’s defense wasn’t as good as it appeared to be, as the Bills faced a very easy schedule of opposing offenses. Adjusting their expected points added (EPA) per play allowed for opposing offenses faced rated that defense about average and the points per game allowed (21.5 ppg is 1.5 ppg better than average) was worse than average when taking into account that their 17 regular season opponents combined to average just 21.3 ppg, their average scoring conditions were -0.6 points per game (0.3 to the defense) and they had 0 non-offensive touchdowns scored against them (2.1 per season per team is average). Adjusting for all of that would make the Bills’ scoring defense 1.4 points per game worse than average last season.

Run stuffing DT Ed Oliver played in just 3 regular season games (he returned for the playoffs), which led to a horrible run defense. The defense against the run should improve but the pass defense, which was better than average last season, will likely not be as good given all the turnover in the secondary depth chart. The Bills’ new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard has mediocre defensive talent to work with, and I have that unit rated near the middle of the pack to start the season.

Houston Texans Preview

Houston’s defense was dominating in 2025, which was more than enough to carry the Texans to a 12-5 record despite a mediocre offense. C.J. Stroud did improve significantly from his disastrous 2024 campaign, but he still wasn’t nearly as good as he was as a rookie in 2023. Stroud has a better than average group of receivers to throw to as long as star WR Nico Collins is healthy. Number 2 WR Jayden Higgins tore his ACL in camp and will miss the season and Tank Dell’s return from injuries that kept him out last season has been postponed until at least week 5. However, the Texans traded for Kayshon Boutte, who has averaged an impressive 10.0 yards per target the last two seasons (on 114 targets) with the Patriots.

The offensive line improved in pass blocking last season, but the rush attack was horrible. The Texans upgraded the running back position with former Lion David Montgomery, who fits will in the man-blocking run scheme that the team adopted under OC Nick Caley last season. The offensive line was also upgraded with the signing of right tackle Braden Smith, an 8-year starter in the league, and 1st-round draft pick on interior lineman Keylan Rutledge out of Georgia Tech earned a starting spot.

Last season the Texans’ offense was exactly average after adjusting for opposing defenses faced and the average scoring conditions of their games. They should be at least a little better this season but may need to be significantly better to make up for what is likely to be regression towards the mean for their dominating defense.

The Texans had the best defense in the league last season, but the correlation from one season to the next in regard to level of defense is relatively low (compared to offenses). Houston added FS Reed Blankenship to take over the starting free safety spot in place of Jalen Pitre, and the rest of the defense remains intact. Houston has had an average defensive ranking of 6th best in the league in 3 seasons under current defensive coordinator Matt Burke (based on EPA/play allowed) and they should be one of the league’s best defensive teams again in 2026.

Game Preview

Josh Allen is 0-4 on the road against the Texans in his career while completing just 52.7% of his passes and averaging a horrible 4.4 yards per pass play. Two of those games were since DeMeco Ryans took over as head coach of the Texans and he’s completed just 51.6% of his passes while averaging 4.2 yppp against Ryans’ stout defense.

My ratings favor Houston by 1.4 points with a total of 47.8 points. I’m certainly not interested in the over based on DeMeco Ryan’s under history (28-9-1 Under totals higher than 41 points) and a 56-23-2 week 1 Under angle that applies to this game. I do lean with Houston.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – Under (47) – Chicago (-3) at CAROLINA

Chicago Preview

The Bears clearly improved last season under new head coach Ben Johnson, who did a great job as the OC for the Lions prior to landing the head gig in Chicago. But all the big plays masked Caleb Williams’ 58.1% completion rate. Williams ranked 36^th out of 40 quarterbacks with at least 200 plays last season in completion percentage vs expected at -3.6%. Williams will likely continue to improve but his 11.9 yards per completion last season is likely to regress some (Ben Johnson’s offenses have averaged 11.6 ypc in 3 seasons at Detroit and last season in Chicago).

Williams’ improvement had a lot to do with a vastly better offensive line, which went from being the worst in the league in 2024 to one of the best last season after wholesale changes were made to upgrade that unit. Center Drew Dalman retired and Garrett Bradbury is a downgrade. Chicago has a good offense but Ben Johnson talking about being the highest scoring offense of all time is delusional.

The Bears’ defense allowed 24.4 points per game, 1.4 points higher than the league average, despite leading the NFL in takeaways (33). They ranked 29^th in yards per play and 27^th in success rate. Takeaways are mostly random from year to year and the Bears’ turnover luck (recovering 10 of 14 fumbles on defense and turning 32% of passes defended into interceptions when 20% is normal) is not likely to repeat. Chicago should be near the middle of the league in takeaways this season, which would spell trouble unless they improve in yards per play and success rate.

Last season, the Bears allowed 6.8 yards per pass play (6.0 yppp is average) and a horrendous 5.0 yards per run (4.4 ypr is average) and gone from that unit are Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Byard, Nashon Wright, Tremaine Edmunds and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

Edmunds had a solid year at linebacker, but former Cleveland Browns LB Devin Bush is an upgrade and gives the defense more speed, which is what DC Dennis Allen prefers.

Byard also had a good year at safety, including 7 interceptions, but Xavier Woods was signed after off-season acquisition Coby Bryant was injured early in camp, and Woods was better in pass coverage last season (but worse in run defense grade by PFF). That’s about a wash. Brisker could adequately be replaced by rookie SS Dillon Thieneman, who is an upgrade on talent but obviously lacking NFL experience.

Wright was picked on (90 targets) but overall he was decent in pass coverage and C.J. Gardner-Johnson was nothing special as a nickelback, as the Bears were among the worst teams in the league defending slot receivers last year. The hope was that Kyler Gordon would be back from injury in time for the start of the season but that is not the case. When healthy, Gordon has been solid as a slot defender. Cam Lewis was picked up and he’s certainly an upgrade over last year’s slot corners and rookie Malik Muhammed may also find himself playing a lot without Gordon out.

Two-time pro-bowl CB Jaylon Johnson is back after playing in just 7 games last season. Johnson was not good when he was playing (11.6 yards per target and 73% completions allowed) last season (although he wasn’t targeted much), but he could be a significant upgrade if he returns to at least his 2024 level of play. Johnson earned his 2023 Pro-Bowl spot with an elite season (55% completions and 4.8 YPT allowed) but his 2024 Pro-Bowl nod was based on reputation rather than production (66% completions and a mediocre 8.0 YPT allowed).

Overall, the secondary looks decent, and potentially better than average if Johnson returns to form, but the front 7 looks dismal again this season aside from Bush and LB T.J. Edwards.

Chicago grades out as 1.5 to 2.0 points better than average heading into the season but there is a lot of variance in my projection, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

Carolina Preview

Carolina was 8-9 last season and won the horrible NFC South division. While the record indicates a mediocre to slightly worse than average team the reality is that the Panthers were about 5 points worse than an average team (-6.0 points per game in net EPA vs a schedule that was 1.1 points better than average in net EPA per game). They were better in compensated points differential (-3.7 points) but they’ve still got a long way to go to get to mediocre and they aren’t likely to be 6-2 in games decided by a field goal or less again.

Quarterback Byrce Young has improved each season, going from dismally bad (4.1 yards per pass play in 2023) to bad (5.4 yppp in ’23) to not quite as bad last season (5.6 yppp). Young does take care of the ball pretty well (2.2% career interception rate) and he’s better than average as a runner. Young should improve again with #1 WR Tetairoa McMillan (8.3 yards per target) in his second season as a pro and with a good #2 receiver in Jalen Coker, who averaged 9.2 YPT and took targets away from Xavier Legette (just 5.7 YPT) late in the season. Coker has a career average of 9.8 YPT on 89 targets, not including his 134 yards on 12 targets against the Rams in their playoff loss. Legette has averaged only 5.8 YPT on 148 targets over his 2-year career but he averaged just 2.8 targets over the Panthers’ final 6 games as Coker got more action. Coker averaged 6.0 targets over those 6 games and that bodes well for further improvement by Young if that trend continues this season.

The offensive line looks solid, but top RB Rico Dowdle left the team and his 1076 yards at 4.6 is not likely to be adequately replaced by Chuba Hubbard, who has averaged just 4.1 ypr in his career. Overall, I see improvement in the offense once they’re healthy but both starting tackles are out until at least week 6, as Taylor Moton is out with a blood clot in his lung and Ikem Ekwonu is still recovering from a knee injury he suffered in the Panthers’ playoff loss in January. Ekwonu is being replaced by former Packers’ starter Rasheed Walker and there isn’t much difference between the two as Walker is a better pass blocker while Ekwonu is a better run blocker. Losing Moton is an issue, as he is coming off a very good season both pass blocking and run blocking and is being replaced by rookie Monroe Freeling.  

The Panthers’ defense allowed just 22.4 points per game (15^th) against a schedule that was about 0.4 points per game easier than average, and they were about 2 points worse than average based on adjusted EPA metrics.

Carolina’s pass defense was worse than average, but the secondary is solid and the pass defense should improve with a better pass rush expected. Last season the Panthers ranked 31^st in pressure rate and 27^th in sack rate but they added Jaelan Phillips, who was 5^th in pressure rate last season. Carolina also signed Devin Lloyd, who is a very good all-around linebacker. The Panthers should be improved defensively as well.

Game Preview

My ratings favor Chicago by 3.4 points with a total of 46.3 points and I’ll Lean Under based on an 82-49-3 week 1 Under angle.

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DETROIT (-7) vs New Orleans

New Orleans Preview

The Saints enter this season with high hopes after last year’s strong finish (won 4 of their final 5 games) behind rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. Shough was good for a rookie, but he did face a schedule of mostly sub-par defensive units. Shough should be better this season, and the rushing attack gets an upgrade with Travis Etienne taking over as the main back in place of an aging Alvin Kamara, who averaged just 3.6 ypr in 2025. An injury to first-round draft pick WR Jordyn Tyson leaves Chris Olave as the only proven wide receiver and Shough will need someone other than Olave and TE Juwan Johnson (8.7 yards per target in 2025) to step up if the Saints’ attack is to approach mediocrity this season after being more than 5 points worse than average last season.

The Saints were good defensively in 2025, ranking #6 in yards per play allowed, 10^th in EPA per play, and #7 in success rate. However, Edge rusher Cameron Jordan is entering his 16^th season and is unlikely to produce another 10.5 sacks season (he had below average pressure rate and pas rush win rate but was randomly 2^nd in sacks to pressure percentage) while leading tackler Demario Davis is now playing with the Jets. Also, their 45 sacks as a team (#10 in the league) came while ranking 22^nd in pressure rate and I expect regression towards the mean in that category this year. Jordan will miss the first few games of the season, which certainly will hurt the team’s sack to pressure rate.

New Orleans’ defense played much better than their talent rating last season under new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. The Saints’ talent rating is still worse than average and the question is if Staley can once again get his defense to outperform expectations. Staley’s only other season as a DC was for the 2020 Rams, who had the best defense in the league that season. It’s possible that Staley will once again produce a good defense despite worse than average talent but the market rates that unit a bit worse than average despite last year’s success.

Detroit Preview

The Lions were 9-8 last season after going 15-2 in 2024. A lot went wrong for that to happen. Detroit was the 2^nd most injured team in the league, they were #30 in field goal luck (worth 0.8 points per game), and near the bottom in penalty value.

Losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears hurt the attack, which went from #3 in EPA/play in 2024 to #7 last season, which is remarkable given how poorly the offensive line played. The Lions’ line ranked #31 in pass block win rate and the talent of running back Jahmyr Gibbs masked sub-par run blocking. Gibbs dropped from 5.6 ypr in 2024 to 5.0 ypr and the worst success rate of his career. That’s still good and quarterback Jared Goff had a solid year despite the bad pass protection (sacked 38 times, the most in his career). Detroit tied for 4^th in the league in scoring and the Lions’ offense should once again be among the league’s best even if the offensive line play doesn’t improve.

Detroit’s defense was about average last season with the most starts lost to injury in the league. The injuries have lingered into the start of this season, as the Lions’ elite safety tandem of Joseph and Branch will both miss games early in the season. Starting CB Terrion Arnold was cut after some criminal activity so the secondary is a major weakness heading into the season. The front 7 is solidly better than average with star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson and All-Pro LB Jack Campbell as standouts. The Lions will have to put pressure on the quarterback to mask the issues in back end but good quarterbacks with a quick release should be able to take advantage of Detroit’s defense until their safeties return. I’m not sure that Saints’ QB Tyler Shough falls into that category.

Game Preview

My ratings favor Detroit by 8.6 points with a total of 49.1 points even with the Lions’ two starting safeties out. However, big underdogs usually perform well in week 1 and the Saints apply to a 46-14 ATS week 1 big underdog situation.

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LA CHARGERS (-9.5) vs Arizona

Arizona Cardinal Preview

The Cardinals weren’t nearly as bad as their 3-14 record suggests, as they were outgained by just 0.4 yards per play (5.2 yppl to 5.6 yppl) and faced a very tough schedule of opponents (two games each against good division rivals the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks and non-division games against the Colts (with Daniel Jones), Packers, Jaguars and Texans). They also had the most starts lost due to injury of any team in the league. Despite the injuries the Cardinals were only 4.4 points per game worse than average after adjusting for their schedule – and they were a bit better than that using adjusted EPA per play to project scoring margin.

The Cardinals’ offense has moved on from quarterback Kyler Murray, who was having the worst season of his career before getting injured, and Jacoby Brissett probably won’t be much of a downgrade. Brissett has a historically low interception rate of 1.4% and his adjusted net yards per pass play, which takes TD passes, interceptions and sacks into account, was 6.0 last season (just 0.1 below the league average). Murray’s adjusted yppp  was just 4.7 in 5 games last season and only 6.0 for his career.

Brisset is a below average, but capable quarterback that was lifted to mediocrity because of a good set of receivers to throw to. Trey McBride has established himself as an elite tight end and Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. form a solid tandem at wide receiver. The addition of #4 overall draft pick RB Jeremiyah Love could also help the pass attack (the RBs combined to average just 5.2 yards per target last season). Love should also boost a rushing attack that was below average due to a horrible offensive line and an injury to top back James Conner, who played just 3 games last season after rushing for over 1000 yards in 2023 and 2024 at a combined 4.8 ypr.

The Cardinals’ defense was expected to be near the middle of the pack last season, but that unit ranked 22^nd in yards per play allowed, 28^th in EPA per play allowed and #29 in success rate. The new coaching staff retained defensive coordinator Nick Rallis and his defense should be better. Last season the Cardinals had the 2^nd most defensive starts lost due to injury and faced the best slate of opposing offenses in the league while playing 13 of 17 games in a domed stadium, which enhances offenses.

The Cardinals’ defense was 3.5 points worse than average after adjusting for opposing offenses and scoring conditions (including facing the Colts with Daniel Jones, Cincy with Joe Burrow, and the Saints with Rattler (a negative)). That unit should be better with better health but they still project to be a bottom-5 defense based on talent.

I think Arizona is a bit better than their market rating, but they’ll need to stay healthier than they were last season.

Los Angeles Chargers Preview

Last season’s offense started off well but the season ending injury to left tackle Joe Alt derailed the offense, which was down to their #3 and #4 tackles (RT starter Rashawn Slater was lost for the season to injury prior to the season starting). Alt played just 4 games in which he played the large majority of snaps and the Chargers averaged 26.8 points in those games (against 4 teams whose EPA/play allowed last season equated to 3.0 points per game better than average). LAC averaged 22.5 points in two games in which Alt started but played a combined total of just 37 snaps and the Chargers averaged only 19.6 ppg in the 11 games Alt didn’t play at all.

With Alt on the field the Chargers EPA per play would have ranked 5^th in the NFL (#1 in passing EPA/play) and their EPA per play would have ranked 26^th in the NFL based on the snaps without Alt. The Chargers ended up being last in the league in pass-blocking win rate and #31 of 32 teams in run-blocking win rate while Herbert led all quarterbacks in hits taken.

Alt and Slater are back healthy but newly acquired center Tyler Biadasz is out for the season after tearing his ACL in mid-August. Rookie Jake Slaughter, a 2^nd round pick, will play center, which is the position he played in college, and it looks like replacement level player Kayode Awosika will move into the left guard position vacated by Slaughter’s move to center. Despite the injury to Biadasz the offensive line play will be significantly better with two excellent tackles protecting Herbert. Former Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel brings his strong offensive credentials to the team as the offensive coordinator I expect the Chargers to be a few points better than average offensively this season.

The Chargers’ defense has been very good the last two seasons under former defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who has moved on to the head coaching job in Baltimore. Minter’s defenses allowed just 17.7 points per game in 2024 and only 20.0 ppg last season. The talent level is a bit worse, as losing edge rusher Odafe Oweh (7.5 sacks in just 12 games) and led the team in pass-rush win rate. LAC still has Tuli Tuipulotu (13 sacks last season) and Khalil Mack (5.5 sacks) on the edge but losing Oweh will likely hurt the team’s pass rush metrics.

New DC Chris O’Leary was with the staff in 2024 and did a great job as the DC at Western Michigan last season (17.4 ppg allowed) and should do a good job – although it remains to be seen if he can keep the Chargers in the top-10 in defense (I’ll call for them to be closer to the middle of the pack to start the season).

Game Preview

My ratings favor the Chargers by 11.1 points with a total of 47.2 points. I see some value on the Chargers but week 1 underdogs of more than 6 points with totals of 44 points or higher are 34-15-1 ATS since 2004.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – Under (40.5) – LAS VEGAS (-3) vs Miami

Miami Preview

Miami is starting from scratch. The Dolphins have a new coaching staff and got rid of more than half of their 2025 production on both sides of the ball. The only additions are their 13 draft picks and QB Malik Willis, who was terrible in Tennessee early in his career but showed some promise last year with the Packers.

Jeff Hafley is the new head coach after spending the last two seasons as the defensive coordinator for the Packers and he brought defensive assistant Sean Duggan to be his DC with the Dolphins. The new OC is Bobby Slowik, who led a pair of mediocre offensive units in two seasons with the Texans in ’23 and ’24 and was part of last season’s offensive disappointment here in Miami as the pass game coordinator.

Miami’s offense could be decent if Malik Willis is close to as capable as he showed the last two years as the Packers’ backup. Willis completed 70 of 89 passes with no interceptions while averaging 9.2 yards per pass play with Green Bay while lifting his career average to 6.6 yppp on 180 pass plays. He’s unlikely to reach that number with an unproven corps of receivers that looks like the worst unit in the NFL heading into this season. De’Von Achane is an elite running back with a career 5.6 ypr average on 544 runs, but Willis will have to be a threat to keep defenses from stacking the box to stop the run.

The Dolphins’ defense easily projects as the worst in the league. Last year’s defense allowed 24.9 points per game and 5.8 yards per play (28^th) and will be without star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, along with the other starters in defensive backfield, and edge rusher Bradley Chubb, who led the team in sacks (8.5). The run defense could improve upon the 4.8 ypr allowed last season but opponents should be able to attack the Dolphins through the air with ease.

Las Vegas Preview

The Raiders were a disaster last season, winning just 3 games while having the league’s worst offense. A new coaching staff was hired to turn things around and the personnel looks better.

Klint Kubiak takes over as head coach after his stint as the offensive coordinator with the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. Seattle wasn’t particularly good on offense under Kubiak, but OC Andrew Janocko (Sea QB coach last season) should be an upgrade over last year’s OC and veteran Kirk Cousins should have more success than Geno Smith did last season behind a horrible offensive line and the league’s worst rushing attack.

Cousins has slipped in recent years and his sub-par performance with Atlanta last season was worse than Geno Smith’s final season in Seattle before coming to Vegas. However, Cousins should perform much better than Smith, who’s 4.4 adjusted net yards per pass play (takes into account interceptions and TD passes) was 1.3 ANYP worse than Cousin’s performance last season. Cousins also has a better offensive line in front of him, as the Raiders added former Ravens’ center Tyler Linderbaum, a pro-bowler the last 3 seasons, and get back star left tackle Kolton Miller, who played just 4 games last season.

TE Brock Bowers should be better after playing through a PCL injury and bone bruise suffered in week 1, which ultimately resulted in him missing 5 games after trying to play through the injury for a few weeks. Bowers is out for this game and he’s worth 0.8 points. The wide receivers are still rated among the worst in the league but picking up Jalen Nailor, should help, as he’s averaged 9.0 yards per target the last two seasons for the Vikings, including 8.4 YPT last season with horrible quarterback play.

The improved offensive line should also help a rush attack that was by far the league’s worst last season. The Raiders’ offense will be 3 points better if they improve to the level of last year’s second-worst rushing team.

The Raiders averaged only 14.2 points per game last season (8.8 ppg worse than average) but project to be just 3 to 4 points worse than average this season.

The Las Vegas defense wasn’t too bad last year, ranking 24^th in expected points added per play allowed and 24^th in success rate, excluding their week 18 game against Chiefs’ backup QBs. Of course, opponents spent most of the latter stages of the game trying to run out the clock with significant leads rather than throwing the ball downfield to add points. The switch to the 3-4 defense could hurt what was a very good run defense and the Raiders had just one good player in the defensive secondary (CB Eric Stokes) last season. The addition of nickel back Taron Johnson, who is an above average player, should help the pass defense improve – although safety is still a problem spot for the Raiders.

Las Vegas ranks 27^th in defensive talent but should allow fewer points per game than last season (25.4 ppg) with an improved offense that should improve field position.

Game Preview

My ratings favor the Raiders by 3.4 points with a total of 41.2 points after adjusting for elite TE Brock Bowers being out. I will lean with the under based on a 105-47-4 week 1 Under angle.

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Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – Green Bay (+1.5) over MINNESOTA

Green Bay Preview

Green Bay was just average in scoring offense last season at 23.0 ppg, but the offense was 10^th in yards per play and 4^th in EPA per play and should have scored more points than they did. Quarterback Jordan Love put up good numbers despite his 3 best receivers all missing significant time. Stud TE Tucker Kraft missed the final 10 games, the team’s #1 wide receiver Christian Watson missed 8 games and WR Jayden Reed, who was 2^nd on the team in yards per route run in 2024, also missed most of the season and had just 22 targets (at 9.4 YPT). Those are huge losses. Kraft averaged 11.1 yards on his 44 targets (the other TEs combined for just 6.7 YPT) and Watson averaged 10.4 YPT (including the playoff game) while the other wide receivers combined for 8.3 YPT. There were zero games all season in which those 3 top receiving targets all played, and the Packers had just one game in which Kraft and Watson played the entire game. In that game, Jordan Love had his best game of the season in a 35-25 win at Pittsburgh, totaling 360 yards on 37 pass plays with no interceptions.

The offensive line was also an issue last season, as the starting OL played together on just 18% of the snaps. The Packers’ running backs combined for just 4.0 ypc, their worst average in years, but the OL should be healthier this season.

Despite the injury issues the Packers still managed to rank 4^th in EPA per play on offense, which is indicative of their attack than their mediocre points per game average (they were 8^th in 2024 and 6^th in 2023).

The Packers’ aerial attack should be great assuming Kraft is close to 100% recovered from his ACL tear and Watson and Reed remain healthy. RB Josh Jacobs had a down season last year and is currently on the commissioners’ exempt list due to his legal troubles and there is very little experience behind him. That might not be a negative, as it could lead to less running (negative EPA) and more passing from the offense.

Green Bay was 0-4 after star edge rusher Micah Parsons was injured, and the defense allowed an average of 27.5 points in those games with an EPA per play that equates to 6.9 points per game worse than average – adjusted for opposing offenses faced with adjustments for playing the Ravens with backup Tyler Huntley at QB and facing the Vikings with a combination of McCarthy and Brosmer at QB. Parsons is not worth that many points (his value is 1.3 to 1.9 points depending on methodology) but not having him at the beginning of the season, especially with Rashan Gary traded away, results in the Packers going from a better than average defense to a worse than average defense to start the season.

Minnesota Preview

The Vikings front office made a horrible decision in letting veteran quarterback Sam Darnold get away from them after he led them to a 14-3 record in 2024. The Vikings turned to 2024 #10 overall pick J.J. McCarthy to be the starter and that went horribly wrong. McCarthy (10 starts), Carson Wentz (5 starts) and Max Brosmer (2 starts) combined for just 5.2 yards per pass play with 21 interceptions and just 18 touchdown passes despite having one of the most talented receiving groups in the league, led by Justin Jefferson.

Minnesota’s offense wasn’t great in 2024 with Darnold, but that team had an elite defense. Despite having Justin Jefferson and playing their home games in a dome the Vikings have been very mediocre offensively under offensive minded head coach Kevin O’Connell. Before last year’s disaster the Vikings ranks 15^th in offensive expected points added per play in 2024, 16^th in EPA/play in 2023 and 19^th in EPA/play in 2022 with Kirk Cousins at QB in ’22 and ’23. Those attacks were a bit better in offensive yards per play and scoring (average rankings of 12^th and 13^th, respectively) but certainly fell into the mediocre category.

I don’t think that new quarterback Kyler Murray is as good as either Kirk Cousins (closer to his prime) or Sam Darnold. Murray has been a mediocre passing quarterback in his career (6.1 yards per pass play) and he’s declined in the past 4 seasons (5.8 yppp). That’s not as good as Cousins’ 6.8 career yppp or Darnold’s non-NY Jets average of 6.6 yppp. I expect the Vikings to have a below average offense. Murray has averaged 6 yards on about 90 runs per 17 games, which would add some value to the offense, but I expect the Vikings’ attack to be worse than in ’22 and ’23 but significantly better than it was last season.

The Vikings’ defense was good last season, ranking 7^th in scoring defense despite playing their home games in a domed stadium and facing a tougher than average schedule of opposing offenses, including facing the good offensive units of their division rivals (GB, Chi, Det) twice each. They also faced Baltimore with Lamar Jackson and the Chargers with elite LT Joe Alt, although they also faced Cincy with Browning at QB.

That unit isn’t likely to be as good this year. Gone from last year’s defense are defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, OLB Jonathan Hargrave and veteran S Harrison Smith. The replacements for those players are not expected to be as effective, and the Vikings’ defensive talent rating is slightly below average. However, DC Brian Flores has schemed his defenses (with lots of blitzes) to perform a couple of points per game better than their talent ratings and I expect that to be the case again this season.

Game Preview

My ratings favor Green Bay by 0.7 points and 46.5 total points (with Micah Parsons out) and Matt LaFleur tends to have his team ready to play when the season starts. Under LaFleur the Packers are 15-5-1 ATS the first 3 weeks of the season, including 8-1 ATS against division opponents and 7-0 ATS as a road underdog. I’ll lean with the Packers plus points.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – Under (48) – Dallas (-2.5/-3) vs NY GIANTS

Dallas Preview

Dallas should be much better this season with a potent offense that returns all 11 starters and a defense that is expected to be much better after giving up more points than any team in the league last season. Trading away star edge rusher Micah Parsons before last season allowed the Cowboys to get a handful of new players to solidify the defense. Dallas got better than average DT Kenny Clark and some draft picks in the trade with the Packers and the extra draft picks not only allowed them to trade for stud DT Quinnen Williams in the middle of last season but they were able to still draft DB Caleb Downs with the 11th pick after he inexplicably dropped down the board. The Cowboys also signed edge rusher Rashan Gary, CB Cobie Durant, and S Jalen Thompson, and traded for Dee Winters. Those are all upgrades and the coaching staff is hoping the S Malik Hooker bounces back from a miserable performance last season in which he gave up 11.8 yards per target after yielding just 7.6 YPT in 4 previous seasons with the Cowboys.

New defensive coordinator Christian Parker is a Vic Fangio disciple, which will likely lead to more blitzing. That would probably be the case regardless given the Cowboys’ lack of proven edge rushers aside from Gary. Dallas had one of the worst defenses in the last 20 years but the worst 10 defenses during that span were just 1.2 points per game worse than average the very next season, so it’s not a stretch to think the Cowboys will be decent on defense. In fact, their talent rating is slightly better than average.

The offense averaged 27.4 points per game in regulation (6th best) and all 11 starters return to run it back – although Pro-Bowl LG Tyler Smith will miss at least the first four games of the season. Dallas’ compensated points per game, adjusted for opponents, scoring conditions and the fact that they had just 1 non-offensive TD (2.2 is average) was +4.3 points better than average. Normally better than average units regress towards the mean a bit, but nobody had a season that much out of the norm.

Dak Prescott averaged 6.9 yards per pass play, which was just slightly better than his 6.8 yppp career average, and it’s surprising it wasn’t even higher with the addition of WR George Pickens. Pickens and CeeDee Lamb give the Cowboys two legitimate #1 receivers and are clearly the best duo in the league. Pickens’ 10.4 yards per target was a bit higher than his 9.9 YPT career number but that would be expected with him facing fewer double-teams given that defenses also had Lamb to deal with. The same was true for Lamb, who averaged 9.2 YPT, which was a bit better than his 8.9 YPT career mark. But neither receiver was significantly higher than normal given the circumstances.

The injury to LG Tyler Smith is a concern, but backup TJ Bass has had 10 starts for the Cowboys over the last 3 seasons (5 last season) and he’s been solid. Bass is a good pass-blocker and his pressures and sacks allowed per pass blocking snap isn’t significantly worse than that of Smith. However, Smith is an elite run-blocker, and I’d expect the Cowboy’s EPA per run to drop by 0.01 to 0.02, which equates to about 0.4 points per game. I’ll start Dallas off with a +2.4 offensive rating, but I suspect they’ll end up being better than that as long as the other key components are healthy.

Dallas is a better than average team heading into this season and with the second-best rating in their division behind only the Eagles.

New York Giants Preview

There’s some excitement brewing regarding the Giants, who have a new established head coach in John Harbaugh and young offensive skill players in QB Jaxson Dart and WR Malik Nabers. Dart should improve, as most second-year starting quarterbacks do, but Nabers has yet to put up good numbers, as he’s averaged just 7.2 yards per target in 19 games and 127 targets. Bad quarterbacking in 2024 has been used as an excuse for his 7.1 YPT that season, which could be the case (he was better than fellow WR Wan’Dale Robinson that year but worse than Darius Slayton). However, last season in 4 games (two of which were against horrible defensive teams Dallas and Washington) Nabers averaged 7.7 YPT while Robinson and Slayton combined for 7.6 YPT for the season. Nabers does have good separation/getting open scores, and I’ll assume he’ll be a further boost to the aerial attack.

The running backs were worse than average last season, as Tyrone Tracy averaged 4.2 ypr, Cam Skattebo averaged 4.1 ypr, and Devin Singletary averaged just 3.7 ypr. There should be some improvement with Singletary not expected to get much action after running the ball 119 times last season due to the injury to Skattebo that kept him out of 9 games. I have some concern about offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, who may be partially responsible for the Chiefs going from the league’s best offense in 2022 to an offense that ranked 9th in the league over 3 years combined (only counting games with Patrick Mahomes at QB) with him as the OC.

The Giants drafted Arvell Reese with the #5 overall pick, and he should be a solid pro right away. Reese should be very good against the run from an inside linebacker position but there are legitimate questions about his pass coverage ability, although I suppose they’ll use him a lot on blitzes to take advantage of his athletic ability.

Losing three-time Pro Bowl DT Dexter Lawrence is a blow to the defense. The pass-rush was better than average last season with Brian Burns recording 16.5 sacks by himself. Last year’s #3 overall draft pick Abdul Carter was a disappointment with just 4 sacks, but he had a better pressure rate and better pass-rush win rate than Burns. Both Burns and Carter benefited from Lawrence drawing a league-high 75% double-team rate last season and are likely to be less productive as a tandem in 2026. New York also got a bit worse in the secondary with Greg Newsome II joining the team to take the place of departed CB Cordale Flott, who allowed just 6.9 yards per target last season. Newsome isn’t bad, as he’s given up 7.7 YPT in each of the last two seasons, but he grades out a bit worse than Flott. LB Tremaine Edwards was brought in to replace Bobby Okereke, which seems like a wash.

The Giants ranked in the mid-20s among NFL defenses in most metrics last season and could be worse without Lawrence causing havoc in the middle of the defensive line, which benefited everyone around him. However, the young players should improve, which could balance out the departure of their best defender, and the run defense has to get better (they allowed 5.5 yards per run to running backs, which was by far the worst in the league).

Game Preview

My ratings favor Dallas by 2.6 points, with a total of 48.1 points, after accounting for G Tyler Smith being out. I’ll lean Under based on an 82-49-3 week 1 Under angle.

Game Analysis view analysis

KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs Denver

Denver Preview

Denver was the #1 seed in the AFC with a 14-3 record and may have made it to the Super Bowl if Bo Nix didn’t get injured before the AFC Championship game. However, the Broncos weren’t nearly as good as their record, and they weren’t any better than the 10-7 team that they had in 2024. In fact, the 2024 Broncos scored more points in the regular season than last year’s offense and both of those teams gave up exactly 311 points (18.3 ppg). The difference was that the 2024 Broncos went 1-5 in one-score games while the 2025 Broncos went 11-2 in such games. Denver’s net EPA per play was the same both seasons but last year was just luckier than the 2024 season. Denver is a good team – just not as good as their record last year suggests.

Offensively the Broncos got a bit better with Bo Nix improving slightly in EPA/ per drop back and success rate. Nix is still just an average quarterback in yards per pass play (6.1 yppp as a rookie and 6.0 yppp last season with 6.0 also being the league average) but he should improve with WR Jaylen Waddle joining the team after averaging 9.3 yards per target in 5 seasons with the Dolphins (9.1 YPT last season). Troy Franklin averaged a poor 6.8 YPT as the Broncos #2 WR last season (on 104 targets) and all wide receivers aside from Courtland Sutton combined for just 7.0 YPT. Franklin and Marvin Mims (just 6.3 YPT) will now be relegated to #3 and #4 receivers, which is more suitable. With two good outside receivers, I expect Nix to improve his yards per pass play to about 6.4 yppp and improve his success rate again.

The rush attack should also improve as long as J.K. Dobbins stays heathy. Dobbins averaged 5.0 ypr on 153 runs in 10 games before getting injured and he’s averaged an impressive 5.2 ypr over 582 career runs. The other Broncos’ running backs combined for just 3.9 ypr for the season and the offense ranked 22^nd in rush play EPA from week 11 on without Dobbins. Having him for an entire season improves the offense by 0.6 points per game.

Denver’s defense led the NFL in EPA per play allowed and was third in points per game allowed (18.3 ppg) in 2024 and they followed that up with a 6^th rated EPA while once again ranking 3^rd in points allowed (18.3 ppg again). That unit wasn’t actually quite that good, as they faced Kansas City in week 17 without Patrick Mahomes and faced the Chargers in week 18 with Trey Lance at quarterback instead of Justin Herbert.

Through week 16 the Broncos’ defense was #10 in EPA per play allowed but they were #1 in success rate. That was against a schedule of opponents that was 0.027 EPA per play worse than average offensively (about 1.6 points per game) so the Broncos weren’t as good as their full season metrics indicate. All the key players are back this season (only DE John Franklin-Myers has departed) and Denver enters 2026 as my 6^th best defensive unit.

Kansas City Preview

I don’t understand how Patrick Mahomes is still considered one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Mahomes put up elite numbers from 2018 through 2022 but in 4 of those 5 seasons he had an elite wide receiver in Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce in his prime. In the last 3 seasons, Mahomes has averaged a modest 6.2 yards per pass play, which is not much better than the league average of 6.0 yppp. In his 4 seasons with Hill, Mahomes averaged a combined 7.5 yppp. To further make my point that perhaps it was Hill more than Mahomes that made those offenses so good I want to point out that Hill averaged 9.3 yards per target from 2018 through 2021 playing with Mahomes and he averaged 9.6 YPT in 4 seasons playing in Miami with Tua Tagovailoa.

This Kansas City offense has been nothing special in recent years, although they do eat up clock and run significantly more plays per game than their opponents, which makes them better than their yards per play numbers. In regular season games with Mahomes at quarterback the Chiefs have been #11, #9, and #8 last season in EPA per play and that’s about where they should be this season.

Then again, it may be all Matt Nagy’s fault. Nagy was the offensive coordinator the last 3 years and while those were all without elite WR Tyreek Hill it should be noted that the 2022 season without Hill was an elite offensive season for Kansas City, as they were #1 in points scored, #1 in EPA, #1 in success rate, and #1 in red zone touchdown percentage. The OC for that team was Eric Bieniemy, who is back at that position for the Chiefs this season. Hmmm.

Adding former Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker will help the offense given that last year’s backs combined for just 3.7 yards per run despite decent run blocking (14^th in yards before contact per rush but 28^th in yards after contact). Walker gained 1027 yards at 4.6 ypr in the regular season and won Super Bowl MVP last season. Walker hasn’t been as good over his 4-year career (4.3 ypr) but he’s going to add a big-play element that the Chiefs haven’t had in recent years. Walker has had nearly twice as many 20+ yard runs over the last 4 years than all KC running backs combined. However, Mahomes added 1.7 points per game with his running last season, and I don’t see him running much as he recovers from his ACL/LCL injury.

Kansas City wasn’t nearly as bad as their 6-11 record suggests, as they were 6-8 with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback while going just 1-7 in one-score games with Mahomes. Those are games the Chiefs usually win (they were 12-0 in one-score games the year before) and had they gone just 3-5 in those close games that 6-8 record would have been 8-6.

The Chiefs defense ranked 12^th last season in EPA per play but ranked 6^th in the league in scoring defense at 19.3 points per game allowed. That’s not variance. In 7 seasons with Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator the points per game allowed rank for Kansas City is on average 6 spots better than their EPA ranking, which is exactly the difference last season. This year’s defense doesn’t look nearly as good on paper, as CB Trent McDuffie and LB Leo Chenal have been replaced with unproven young players. Other departures (FS Cook, DT Nnadi, DE Danna, and CB Watson) are replaceable but the losing a pair of star players on the defense should make them a couple of points worse.

Spagnuolo still has stud DT Chris Jones and excellent LB Drue Tranquill, but the rest of the players are mediocre or unproven, and based on overall talent/experience I’d rate the Chiefs’ defense as #17 or #18 best in the league. However, I have them slotted in as the #11 defense based on Spagnuolo’s history of allowing fewer points per game than expected.

Kansas City could be very good again if the Chiefs’ offensive decline over the last 3 years was a function of OC Matt Nagy, which is something I’ll keep my eye on early in the season.

Game Preview

I have Denver higher than the betting market rating heading into the season and, while I have the KC on market, the Chiefs could be better than expected if their offensive decline the last 3 seasons was a function of OC Matt Nagy. Kansas City also has a problem on the offensive line as LT Josh Simmons is expected to miss this game and undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson is slated to take his spot. That’s a significant downgrade. My current rating favor Kansas City by 1 point with a total of 43.5 points. I’d certainly lean with Denver if this line gets to +3 -115 or better.