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Lean – NEW ENGLAND (+3.5) over Buffalo

· Josh Allen averaged 0.289 EPA/play the first nine weeks of the season (3rd) but is averaging 0.116 EPA/play since his ulnar collateral ligament injury (16th). Presumably, he will get healthier with more time but it’s safe to say Allen hasn’t been at his best recently.

· Buffalo’s offense has a 44.3% rush success rate (6th) but New England’s defense can shut the running backs down as they are allowing -0.117 EPA/rush (6th). I expect Bill Belichick to be extremely focused on stopping Josh Allen as a runner given the situation with Allen’s elbow.

· Allen ran for 169 yards in three games versus the Patriots last year. Allen has at least 30 rushing yards in all but two games this season and is coming off 78 rushing yards on 10 carries against the Lions on Thanksgiving.

· Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins ranks 22nd in pass blocking efficiency but he is out again this week. Buffalo right tackle Spencer Brown surrendered 6 pressures versus the Lions. New England edge defender Matthew Judon ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency and should collapse the pocket against the tackles.

· Patriots CB Jonathan Jones ranks 4th in coverage grade by PFF and he will limit wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who is averaging 0.49 EPA/target (7th).

· Mac Jones is coming off his best game of the season gaining 8.7 yppp in Minnesota.

· New England slot WR Jakobi Meyers is averaging 0.52 EPA/target (5th) and he has a favorable matchup across from Bills nickelback Taron Johnson, who is allowing 1.29 yards per cover snap in slot (7th-worst).

· Buffalo edge defender Gregory Rousseau ranked 8th in pass rushing efficiency before his ankle sprain and he will make his return to the field this week after sitting out since week 9. Edge rusher Von Miller has 45 pressures (8th) but he is out with a lateral meniscus tear.

· Patriots’ rookie LG Cole Strange will struggle versus interior defender Ed Oliver, who has a 12.4% pressure rate.

· Bill Belichick tends to have his defense playing better after a bad performance, as the Patriots are now 35-10 ATS in regular season games after allowing more than 28 points, including 23-2 ATS from -4 to dog and 8-0 ATS without Tom Brady.

· Our model favors the Bills by 3.0 points with a predicted total of 45.9 points. I’ll lean with New England ad +3.5 or more.

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BALTIMORE (-8) vs Denver

· The Ravens dropped five passes versus the Jaguars last week and still gained 6.1 yards per play. One of those drops was in the endzone by TE Mark Andrews, who has a 60% success rate (3rd).

· Baltimore’s offense now has 14 possessions into opponent territory in the last two games resulting in only 33 points which is roughly half of the expected scoring.

· RG Kevin Zeitler ranks 15th in pass blocking efficiency and should hold up across from Denver interior defender Dre’Mont Jones, who has 37 pressures (8th).

· Broncos edge rusher Baron Browning has a 15.4% pressure rate and Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley’s possible return will be worth monitoring. Stanley has conceded only three pressures in his six games.

· Baltimore’s ball carriers outside of Lamar Jackson are gaining 3.7 yards per carry in games with Stanley compared to 5.1 yards per rush without the starting left tackle (per Tom Strachan).

· Denver’s offensive line is a disaster without three starters as Russell Wilson had a 45% dropback pressure rate last week.

· Meanwhile, the Ravens defensive line is trending in the opposite direction due to signing edge rusher Jason Pierre-Paul and getting edge rusher Tyus Bowser in the lineup after he sat out to start the season because he tore his Achilles during the 2021 season finale. Baltimore’s defense has a 10.7% sack rate in the last three games.

· Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy is averaging 0.31 EPA/target (27th) but he is likely out again. Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey ranks 7th in coverage grade by PFF and he will shut down WR Courtland Sutton.

· Denver’s ground game will be smothered as Baltimore’s defense is conceding only 3.9 yards per rush (3rd).

· Our model favors the Ravens by 11.4 points, with a predicted total of 40.1 points but the situation strongly favors the Broncos, who apply to a 101-33-3 ATS bounce-back situation. I think 8 is the fair line given the situation.

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ATLANTA (pk) vs Pittsburgh

· The Steelers have faced the most difficult schedule this season according to our metrics and are coming off two wins in three weeks when the competition dropped against the Saints and Colts. The Falcons will be another below average team.

· Atlanta’s offense has a 45.3% rush success rate (4th) and they call a run play on a league-high 52.5% of snaps, but they will be shut down on the ground this week. Pittsburgh’s defense is conceding only 3.4 yards per rush in the four games with edge defender TJ Watt on the field.

· Watt will battle pass rushing versus Falcons RT Kaleb McGary, who ranks 14th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Atlanta has started five different left guards in five weeks, and it will be a favorable matchup for interior defender Cameron Heyward against whomever the Falcons put across from him. Heyward has 32 pressures this season (13th).

· Marcus Mariota will not have his tight end Kyle Pitts, who is out for the season. Top receiver Drake London will be contained by Steelers cornerback Cameron Sutton, who ranks 17th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Kenny Pickett had five carries for 34 yards last Monday night and he will likely look to scramble again this week with his receivers blanketed.

· Atlanta cornerback AJ Terrell only conceded 1 reception for 3 yards in shadow coverage versus Terry McLaurin last week and he will shut down WR George Pickens, who is averaging 0.42 EPA/target (12th).

· Falcons’ backup CB Darren Hall surrendered two touchdowns last game but he will be fine against Pittsburgh’s second wide receiver Diontae Johnson, who has just a 44% success rate.

· Atlanta’s defense is allowing 0.122 EPA/dropback (28th) but they’ve limited tight ends to 6.8 yards per target (12th). TE Pat Freiermuth is averaging 1.73 yards per route run (5th) but Pickett likely won’t be able to get him the ball too much.

· Falcons’ interior defender Grady Jarrett has 36 pressures (9th), but Steelers guards Kevin Dotson and James Daniels are both tied for 8th in pass blocking efficiency. Colts Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner did not have a pressure against Pittsburgh’s guards last week.

· Our model favors the Steelers by 0.4 with a predicted total of 43.4.

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Lean – PHILADELPHIA (-5) over Tennessee

· Tennessee is 1-4 versus teams with a winning record and 6-0 in the other games.

· The Titans cannot play from behind as the offensive line ranks 28th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Ryan Tannehill will be under pressure if the Eagles jump out to a lead. Philadelphia’s defense has an impressive 8.7% sack rate (4th).

· Tennessee’s offensive line is also blocking for only 0.8 yards before contact on running plays this season.

· Titans’ rookie WR Treylon Burks is averaging 9.3 yards per target but he will be limited by CB James Bradberry, who ranks 9th in coverage grade by PFF.

· The Eagles had 11 explosive runs of 10+ yards on their way to 363 rushing yards last Sunday night. Jalen Hurts set career-highs with 88 rushing yards on scrambles and 70 rushing yards on designed runs against the Packers.

· Tennessee’s defense is conceding a league-low 32.1% rush success rate and will force Hurts to be them through the air.

· Hurts is gaining just 5.3 yppp in two games without tight end Dallas Goedert, who is 2nd in the league averaging 0.74 EPA/target.

· This is a better matchup for Philadelphia’s wide receivers than the Packers and Colts though.  AJ Brown is averaging 0.40 EPA/target (16th) and he will want to have a massive game after the Titans didn’t re-sign him this offseason.

· Tennessee interior defender Jeffery Simmons has 36 pressures (9th), but only two pressures in two games since coming back from a left ankle sprain and he will likely be contained again on Sunday. Eagles C Jason Kelce ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency and did not allow a single pressure last week.

· Our model makes Philadelphia an 8.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.3.

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Washington (-2.5) vs NY GIANTS

· These division rivals are trending in the opposite directions with the Giants dropping three of the last four games while the Commanders have the best record in the NFL (6-1) since week 6.

· Washington’s offense is averaging -0.036 EPA/dropback since week 6 (26th). The ride will eventually stop for Taylor Heinicke but maybe not this week.

· New York’s defense leads the league with a 42.3% blitz rate which makes them susceptible to screens as they allow 6.1 yards per target to running backs (24th). Commanders RB Antonio Gibson is averaging 1.71 yards per route run (3rd) and you can bet he will try to catch the Giants in a blitz.

· Washington WR Terry McLaurin is averaging 0.38 EPA/target (18th) and he will look to get deep versus New York’s secondary missing two starters in safety Xavier McKinney and cornerback Adoree Jackson, who ranks 23rd in coverage grade by PFF.

· The Giants and Commanders have the best interior pass rush in the NFL. Washington defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne have combined for 75 pressures. New York interior defender Dexter Lawrence ranks 6th in pass rushing efficiency and interior defender Leonard Williams ranks 26th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Both Daniel Jones and Heinicke will confront pressure up the middle. Jones will be behind backup center Nick Gates and backup guard Jack Anderson while Washington backup C Tyler Larsen ranks 2nd worst pass blocking efficiency among centers since taking over in week 6.

· Feels like we’ve been saying it for weeks but Commanders edge defender Chase Young could make his debut in this game. Young would line up across from Giants rookie right tackle Evan Neal, who has surrendered 5 sacks in seven games.

· Washington’s defense is allowing -0.119 EPA/rush (5th) and should shut down Saquon Barkley on the ground. However, Barkley will be vital as a receiver as Commanders’ linebacker Jamin Davis surrendered 110 yards in coverage last week.

· Our model makes Washington a 2.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.1.

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Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (-4) over Miami

· San Francisco’s defense hasn’t allowed a second half score since week 7, but the Dolphins have the right scheme to attack the 49ers coverage. The primary weaknesses in cover 3 are the seams (the area between the deep zones) and the flats (the area near the line of scrimmage towards each sideline).

· Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for a 56% seam target rate (2nd-highest) and leads the NFL with a 9.1-yard average depth of target to the seams. Tagovailoa had 262 passing yards and a touchdown targeting the seams last week.

· Miami WR Tyreek Hill has a 37% target rate versus single-high safety coverages (2nd). Hill is averaging 0.52 EPA/target (6th).

· The Dolphins would be the perfect offense to expose San Francisco’s cover 3 if LT Terron Armstead did not suffer a pec injury last week. Backup tackle Brandon Shell allowed five pressures on 20 snaps after coming in for Armstead against the Texans. Meanwhile, Austin Jackson surrendered six pressures from his right tackle spot last week.

· Armstead is the key to Miami’s pass protection. The Dolphins concede a 27% pressure rate with Armstead compared to a 51% pressure rate without him. San Francisco’s edge rush alone is producing 12.5 pressures a game and Tagovailoa likely won’t have time to attack the seams on Sunday.

· Jaelan Phillips, Christian Wilkins, Bradley Chubb and Melvin Ingram all had at least 3 pressures for Miami’s defensive line last week. However, Jimmy Garoppolo is cashing in on a 49ers offensive line ranked 7th in pass blocking efficiency. Garoppolo is averaging 0.235 EPA/play (5th).

· The Dolphins are allowing 6.1 yards per target to running backs (26th) and they will struggle against RB Christian McCaffrey, who is averaging 1.84 yards per route run (2nd).

· Our model makes San Francisco a 3.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.9.

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Lean – Indianapolis (+11) over DALLAS

· Indianapolis has only been beaten by more than a touchdown in two of Matt Ryan’s ten starts and they could be competitive again on Sunday night.

· Jonathan Taylor is averaging 24.7 touches per game since Jeff Saturday became head coach and he will get plenty of touches again in this game. The Cowboys rush defense ranks 26th by our metrics and Dallas has struggled at times to contain running backs out of the backfield allowing 6.0 yards per target.

· Colts slot receiver Paris Campbell has a 59% success rate (12th) and Ryan will look for him on the crucial downs versus Cowboys backup nickelback DaRon Bland, who is allowing 1.02 more yards per slot cover snap than starter Jourdan Lewis.

· The main concern for the Indianapolis offense will be Ryan’s lack of mobility against a Dallas pass rush leading the NFL with an 11.5% sack rate.

· The Cowboys are averaging 0.004 EPA/rush but the Colts are conceding only 3.9 yards per carry (5th) and this game will have to be won with Dak Prescott’s passing.

· Indianapolis is surrendering 8.2 yards per target to tight ends (26th) and they will struggle against TE Dalton Schultz, who is averaging 1.72 yards per route run in the seven weeks he wasn’t out for the majority or entirety of the game (4th).

· Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb is averaging 2.46 yards per route run in the slot (5th) and he will most likely line up against backup nickelback Brandon Facyson as Colts Pro Bowl nickelback Kenny Moore is dealing with a shin injury.

· Cowboys left tackle Tyler Smith surrendered 3 quarterback hits last week and the rookie could struggle versus edge defender Yannick Ngakoue, who ranks 19th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Our model makes Dallas an 8.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 44.3.

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