Game Analysis view analysis

Strong Opinion – NEW ENGLAND (-12.5) over NY Jets

• The Jets became the first team in NFL history to win a game while gaining less than 175 yards on offense and not forcing a takeaway, but the smoke and mirrors will end on Thursday night.
• New York’s defense benefited from weather conditions that were 2.8 points worse than average and an opposing offense averaging a league-low 4.1 yards per play in their first game without cornerback Sauce Gardner and interior defender Quinnen Williams, and they will not be afforded the same advantage this week. The Patriots are averaging 5.9 yppl (5th), and the weather looks clear.
• Jets WR Garrett Wilson is out. New York’s next highest receptions at wide receiver are 11 from Josh Reynolds.
• Justin Fields would like to get Jets TE Mason Taylor involved without Wilson on the field. Taylor has a 60% success rate (8th), but he will be shut down as New England’s defense is conceding 0.10 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (5th).
• It was New York RB Breece Hall who accounted for 78% of the team’s receiving yards last week, but the Patriots can key in and contain the screen game.
• Hall will also be limited on the ground, too, as New England’s defense is conceding -0.14 EPA/rush (4th).
• Our model favors the Patriots by 14.5 points, with a predicted total of 45.2 points, and the Jets apply to a negative 31-89-2 ATS letdown situation this week that is based on their 2-game win streak (both as underdogs).

New England is a Strong Opinion at -13 or less.

Game Analysis view analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Washington (+2.5 -105) over MIAMI

1-Star Best Bet 6-point Teaser (-120) – Washington (+8.5) with Baltimore (-1.5) at +7.5 and -2.5 or better

Lean – Over (47.5)

• The Commanders will be without two starting cornerbacks and three starting defensive linemen in this game, while the Dolphins are down two starters on the offensive line, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, likely cornerback Rasul Douglas, and traded away edge defender Jaelan Phillips, who has 38 pressures (10th).
• Washington and Miami are both allowing a 47% success rate this season, but our metrics have the Dolphins’ defense rated a half point better, given the current available personnel.
• However, the Commanders clearly have a better offense than the Dolphins. Marcus Mariota is averaging 0.07 EPA/play while Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 0.02 EPA/play.
• Mariota has a favorable matchup against Miami’s defense with the 2nd-highest cover 2 rate. Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s spread sets force defenders to cover wide areas and cover 2’s zone structure can struggle to account for multiple receivers flooding short zones. Bubble screens, quick outs, and jet motion stress the flat defenders, creating mismatches, and the Commanders are averaging 33% more yppp versus cover 2 compared to other coverages (4th).
• Washington also has a decided advantage on the ground with a 44.6% rush success rate (6th) compared to Miami’s 36.5% rush success rate (26th).
• The Commanders have a stronger offense, and the Dolphins have a stronger defense. I think the market has unjustifiably strayed away from a pick ’em game on a neutral site in Madrid and the situation strongly favors the Commanders.
• Washington’s 5 game straight up and spread losing streak is why there is value playing on them this week and the Commanders apply to a 52-6 ATS situation that plays on teams on a 5-games or more spread losing streak. Washington also applies to a 133-57-6 ATS blowout bounce-back situation based on last week’s 22-point loss to Detroit. Miami, meanwhile, applies to a 25-73-3 ATS letdown situation that applies to teams coming off an upset win as a big dog over a division foe.
• Our model favors the Commanders by 2.2 point, with a predicted total of 49.1 points, and the situation strongly favors Washington.

Washington is a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.

1-Star Best Bet 6-point Teaser (-120) – Washington (+8.5) with Baltimore (-1.5) at +7.5 and -2.5 or better.

Game Analysis view analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *NY GIANTS (+7) over Green Bay

• The Giants are 2-8 for the third consecutive season, and they fired head coach Brian Daboll. Mike Kafka will serve as the interim and teams in the first game with an interim head coach are 16-7 ATS in the last 10 years because it acts as an emotional reset for the locker room, and new coaches generally deploy subtle scheme tweaks that haven’t been captured on film.
• Head coach is not the only major change for New York this week, as they are making a change at quarterback, starting Jameis Winston. The Giants are averaging 5.9 yards per pass play this season, and Winston’s career yppp is 6.7.
• New York is without WR Malik Nabers, but the offensive line ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency, and I think we could see Winston throw for his career average.  I’m not marking an upgrade yet, but I think many of us suspect Winston has been the top quarterback on this roster all year, and we’ll find out as long as Jaxon Dart is recovering from his concussion.
• Jordan Love’s -0.15 EPA/dropback last week was the 4th-lowest of his career as the Packers are down C Elgton Jenkins and have a banged-up group of receivers. TE Tucker Kraft is out, WR Matthew Golden couldn’t suit up last game because of a shoulder injury, and WR Jayden Reed is still out because of clavicle and foot injuries. WR Christian Watson, WR Dontayvion Wicks, and WR Savion Williams played despite being limited during the week.
• Kraft is the most substantial loss, and we’re adjusting Green Bay’s offense down 0.7 points, but it could be even more. Kraft still leads the team in receiving yards and has averaged 11.1 yards per target, which is easily the best of any receiver on the team. The Packers are averaging 1.5 yppl more when Kraft is on the field this year and 0.22 EPA/play better than when Kraft is off the field.
• Kraft’s loss will be felt extra in this matchup as the Giants have a 40% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest). Kraft is averaging a league-high 4.16 yards per route run against man coverage, and Green Bay’s backup TE Luke Musgrave is averaging only 0.56 yards per route run versus man coverage.
• New York’s defense will feel more secure in man-coverage on Sunday, likely getting back CB Paulson Adebo, who is allowing 7.0 yards per target compared to backup CB Deonte Banks surrendering 12.2 yards per target.
• The Packers would like to run the ball this week, but Green Bay’s running backs are 69 yards below expectation (30th).
• Our model favors the Packers by just 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 42.9 points, and Green Bay applies to an 11-43-1 ATS situation that applies to favorites coming off consecutive upset losses. New York, meanwhile, applies to a 54-19-1 ATS home dog contrary angle that is based on their bad record and current losing streak.

New York is a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 -115 odds or better (Strong Opinion at +6.5).

Game Analysis view analysis

Strong Opinion – BUFFALO (-5.5) over Tampa Bay

• Baker Mayfield admitted his oblique strain has impaired his speed and mobility but reiterated his refusal to use it as a crutch, saying he’s focused on adapting and that the team needs to execute better regardless.
• Those sentiments don’t inspire confidence, and the lack of pocket mobility is troublesome, as Tampa Bay’s offensive line ranks 29th in pass-blocking efficiency and will be without both starting guards, Cody Mauch and Ben Bredeson.
• Buccaneers’ third- and fourth-string guards Michael Jordan and Dan Feeney will struggle against a Bills defensive line with a 42% pressure rate (3rd).
• Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense is getting back CB Christian Benford and possibly nickelback Taron Johnson, who is conceding a league-low 0.65 yards per cover snap in the slot.
• Tampa Bay interior defender Vita Vea had 6 pressures last week against Patriots C Garrett Bradbury, but Vea will be contained in this game across from Bills C Connor McGovern, who ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.
• The Buccaneers will be without edge defender Haason Reddick again. Reddick has a 16.1% pressure rate compared to backup edge defender Anthony Nelson’s 11.2% pressure rate.
• The Bills will be without tight end Dalton Kincaid, who is worth 0.4 points according to our numbers. However, backup TE Dawson Know has a 67% success rate.
• High winds are in the forecast, and I expect Josh Allen with Buffalo’s offense to be able to navigate the conditions better than a gimpy Baker Mayfield behind a banged-up interior offensive line.
• Buffalo lost by 17 points as an 8-point favorite last week and teams that lose to the spread by 24 points or more are generally good bets to bounce-back (the Bills apply to an 85-28-1 ATS situation based on that premise). Tampa Bay isn’t 2nd in the league in turnover margin, which is mostly random and has made the Bucs appear to be better than they are. Tampa applies to a negative 39-80-5 ATS turnover differential indicator.
• Our model favors the Bills by 7.1 points, with a predicted total of 44.3 points, and the situation favors Buffalo in this game.

Buffalo is a Strong Opinion at -6 or less.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – Under (49) – PITTSBURGH (-5.5) vs Cincinnati

• Initially, the model and technical analysis for this game pointed towards the Bengals side and the under. You would need to value Cincinnati edge rusher Trey Hendrickson at around 3-4 points for this market to make sense, making him the most valuable non-quarterback in the league.
• Digging in, the Bengals defense is allowing 5.7 yppl and 0.06 EPA/play with Hendrickson on the field compared to 7.0 yppl and 0.34 EPA/play with Hendrickson off the field.
• Those splits imply Hendrickson has been worth 16.7 points per game by EPA and 5.7 points per game by yards per play.
• It’s plausible Hendrickson is, in fact, worth 3-4 points.
• Pittsburgh’s offense also has a favorable matchup in this game.  Aaron Rodgers is targeting his running backs on 23.8% of passes (3rd-most), and Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.39 EPA/target to opposing running backs.
• Rodgers is averaging 16% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush compared to a blitz, and the Bengals have a 76% standard pass rush rate (4th). Cincinnati’s defense will not be able to disrupt Rodgers without blitzing and without Hendrickson.
• Our model favors the Steelers by 6.3 points, with a predicted total of 48.1 points and this game applies to a 583-430-16 Under situation.

Game Analysis view analysis

Strong Opinion – Houston Team Total Under (21.5 -115) to -125 odds

Note: Some books have 23.5 and TT Under is good at 23.5 to -165

The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is the game Under 37.5 at 37 or more.

Lean – TENNESSEE (+5.5) over Houston

Lean – Under (37.5)

• The market is overrating Houston’s offense with Davis Mills after the insane comeback last week. The Texans were down to just a 2% win probability in the fourth quarter. Mills is averaging 0.9 yppp fewer than CJ Stroud, even after last week’s game.
• The Titans’ defense is underrated because they’ve been without interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who leads the NFL in pass-rushing efficiency. Simmons is scheduled to return this week and I expect him to play about half the snaps.
• Tennessee’s allowed 0.23 EPA/play in the last month, with interior defender Jeffery Simmons sidelined after allowing 0.08 EPA/play in the first 6 games with Simmons.
• The Titans’ offense will be getting a boost from WR Calvin Ridley, who missed the last three games. Ridley is averaging 0.34 more EPA/target than his backup, Chimere Dike.
• Houston’s defense has a 42% pressure rate (4th), and Cam Ward will have to get the ball out quickly as Tennessee’s offensive line ranks 30th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Our model favors the Texans by 5.4 points, with a predicted total of just 32.3. Tennessee applies to a 104-33-2 ATS contrary indicator that plays on bad teams have underperformed against the spread. But rather than trust the Titans’ offense we prefer the Houston Team Total Under.

The Houston Team Total Under is a Strong Opinion Under 21.5 to -125 odds (or Under 23.5 to -165).

The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is the game Under 37.5 at 37 or more.

Game Analysis view analysis

Strong Opinion – Chicago (+3) over MINNESOTA

• The Bears rank 4th in pass blocking efficiency, and they will limit the Vikings’ defense that is leading the NFL with a 44% pressure rate.
• Minnesota interior defenders Javon Hargrave and Jalen Redmond have combined for 43 pressures, but Chicago’s interior offensive line is at fault for only 37% of the allowed pressures (4th). Bears four-time All-Pro guard Joe Thuney has allowed pressure on 1.9% of pass plays this season, tying for the best rate of his career.
• Vikings Jonathan Greenard has 36 pressures (15th), but he is likely out this week. Greenard is worth half a point.
• Minnesota’s defense gets its pressure with a league-high 60% blitz rate, but it won’t work against the Bears, who are averaging 14% more yards per attempt against the blitz compared to a standard pass rush (3rd).
• Chicago head coach Ben Johnson’s offense is better against middle-field open coverages due to his ability to exploit lighter boxes and attack underneath zones. The Bears rank 5th relatively versus middle-field open coverages compared to middle-field closed, and Caleb Williams has a favorable matchup as the Vikings lead the NFL with a 69% middle-field open coverage rate.
• JJ McCarthy has not performed as well as the Vikings hoped he would this season, with just a 35% success rate outside of scripted plays. McCarthy is averaging only 5.0 yppp compared to Williams’ 6.7 yppp. Chicago has the decided advantage at quarterback this week.
• The Bears’ defense will again be without linebacker TJ Edwads, but they have improved since signing new primary slot defender CJ Gardner-Johnson, who had 2 sacks last game while leading the team in tackles. Gardner-Johnson is also conceding just 0.69 yards per cover snap in the slot.
• Our model makes Chicago a 1.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.9. There is a negative 55-107-5 ATS statistical indicator that applies to the Bears based on their extremely positive turnover margin and that will keep us from making Chicago a Best Bet even though the model accounts for turnover luck.

Chicago is a Strong Opinion at +3 -115 odds or better.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – Carolina (+3.5) over ATLANTA

• Carolina has lost a record 11-straight games when closing as the favorite after falling to the Saints last week.
• Bryce Young averaged only 2.1 yppp against the New Orleans blitz, and the Panthers rank 27th relatively versus the blitz compared to a standard pass rush because of communication errors with a constantly changing offensive line.
• There will be no reprieve for Young on Sunday as the Falcons’ defense has a 52% blitz rate (2nd-highest).
• Carolina will try to win this game with their running backs, with screens, and on the ground. Atlanta linebacker Divine Deablo remains sidelined. Deablo is conceding 0.31 yards per cover snap, while backup linebackers JD Bertrand and Ronnie Harrison are combining to surrender 1.43 yards per cover snap.
• Furthermore, the Falcons are surrendering a 47.7% rush success rate (29th), and the Panthers are 8th in EPA/rush.
• Atlanta’s offense is averaging 41% more yards per attempt versus zone compared to man-coverage (2nd), and Michael Penix has a favorable matchup against Carolina’s defense with an 86% zone coverage rate (2nd-highest).
• Penix will need to look downfield. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson is gaining 1.93 yards per route run (2nd), but the Panthers are allowing just -0.16 EPA/target to opposing running backs (6th).
• Our model makes Atlanta a 5.6-point favorite, with a predicted total of 45.7 points, but the Panthers apply to a 120-50-5 ATS situation that plays on teams after a horrible offensive performance.

Game Analysis view analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *JACKSONVILLE (+3 -115) over LA Chargers

Lean – Under (44)

• The Chargers are without both starting tackles after Joe Alt’s season-ending ankle surgery. Backup LT Austin Deculus continues to struggle, surrendering 5 pressures in week 10. Deculus has allowed pressure on 12.4% of pass plays, which is the second-worst rate among all offensive tackles. Backup RT Trey Pipkins ranks 8th-worst in pass blocking efficiency on true sets.
• Justin Herbert’s 2.21-seconds time to throw against the Steelers was the fastest of his career, as the shorthanded offensive line is completely handicapping this offense.
• Los Angeles scored 25 points last on Sunday night but averaged only 4.6 yards per play.
• Jacksonville edge rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker have combined for 66 pressures, and the pair will wreak havoc on Deculus and Pipkins.
• Chargers RG Mekhi Becton ranks 6th worst in pass blocking efficiency, and he will struggle lined up across from interior defender Arik Armstead, who has 31 pressures (6th).
• The Jaguars’ defense is conceding a league-low 0.03 EPA/target to opposing wide receivers, and they will contain Herbert, who is the only quarterback in the NFL targeting wide receivers on more than 70% of his passes.
• Jacksonville’s offense traded for WR Jakobi Meyers at the deadline, and he averaged 2.56 yards per route run in his first game.
• Trevor Lawrence could also benefit from possibly getting back WR Brian Thomas and TE Brenton Strange, who had a 67% success rate in the first 5 weeks of the season before going on the IR.
• Our model favors the Chargers by just 0.1, with a predicted total of 43.0 points, and the Chargers apply to a 118-213-9 ATS situation.

Jacksonville is a 1-Star Best Bet at +2.5 or more.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – Seattle (+3) over LA RAMS

• Matthew Stafford’s 20 touchdown passes versus the blitz are already more than all but two quarterbacks in a full season in the last decade. The Seahawks are not going to fall into the trap, as Seattle’s defense has only a 24% blitz rate (30th).
• Los Angeles had a 45% rate of 13 personnel last week, averaging 6.7 yppl against the 49ers, but the Seahawks should have an answer. Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald is only of the only in the NFL to get away with staying in nickel when opponents put more tight ends on the field, and as a result, the Seahawks rank 6th relatively versus heavy personnel passing.
• Rams’ wide receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams have gotten 52% of the targets this season, but they will be limited as Seattle’s defense is allowing only a 46% success rate to opposing wide receivers (4th).
• Los Angeles is conceding -0.16 EPA/rush (3rd), and they will contain the Seahawks’ ground game on Sunday.
• Seattle forces defenses into base personnel by using 3WR sets on only 36% of snaps. The Seahawks have faced base defense on a league-high 49% of offensive snaps, and they will look to pass when the Rams put a third linebacker on the field. Los Angeles is surrendering 31% more yppp versus heavy personnel compared to light personnel (31st).
• Sam Darnold’s main concern will be at center after starter Jalen Sundell exited Sunday’s game with a knee injury and is expected to miss several weeks. Sundell was replaced by Olu Oluwatimi, and it led to some snapping issues for the Seahawks’ offense.
• Our model favors the Rams by 3.1 points, but the matchups significantly favor the Seahawks. The model predicted total is 49.0 points but his game applies to a 177-109-5 Under situation.

Game Analysis view analysis

San Francisco (-3) at ARIZONA

• The 49ers are getting healthier, while the Cardinals are going in the other direction. Brock Purdy should be under center this week, upgrading San Francisco’s offense by 3.2 points from Mac Jones. Purdy is averaging 8.0 yppp for his career and 7.6 yppp in two starts this season. Jones is averaging 6.7 yppp this year.
• The 49ers will also likely be getting back WR Ricky Pearsall, who is averaging 2.29 yards per route run, while San Francisco’s other wide receivers, Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, and Demarcus Robinson have combined for 1.45 yards per route run.
• Arizona’s defense will likely be without CB Will Johnson, who is allowing 0.42 yards per cover snap fewer than backup Denzel Burke.
• Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison had an appendectomy, and he is worth 1 point according to our numbers. Harrison is averaging 0.55 more EPA/target than backup WR Greg Dortch.
• San Francisco’s defense got back edge defender Bryce Huff last week, and he ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Our model favors the 49ers by 5.0 points, with a predicted total of 51.6 points, but I used Arizona in my spread pool at +3 (would have chosen SF at -2.5 or less) based on a 158-62-6 ATS blowout bounce-back situation. I passed the over because of a 583-430-16 Under angle that applies to this game.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – Baltimore (-7.5) over CLEVELAND

• Lamar Jackson threw a quick pass (under 2.5 seconds) on 66% of his attempts in Minnesota, and he will look to do the same on Sunday against Cleveland’s pass rush with a 10.3% sack rate (3rd).
• The Ravens are averaging 12% more yards per attempt against man coverage compared to zone (3rd), and Jackson has a favorable matchup against a Browns defense leading the NFL with a 40% man-coverage rate. Cleveland’s Cover 1 is susceptible to well-executed crossers, rub routes, and quarterback mobility.
• However, this game could have the highest sustained winds of any game this season, making the passing attack less impactful, and the Browns are conceding -0.20 EPA/rush (2nd).
• The wind would make it nearly impossible for Cleveland’s passing attack because Dillon Gabriel has a weak arm. Gabriel is averaging just 6.1 air yards per attempt (3rd-lowest) and has a -5.0% completion percentage versus expectation.
• Baltimore All-Pro CB Marlon Humphrey could be out, but he is allowing 10.2 yards per target this season compared to backup CB Chidobe Awuzie conceding 5.8 yards per target.
• Our model favors the Ravens by 10.8 with a predicted total of 38.9.

Game Analysis view analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *First Half Over (22.5 -120) – Kansas City vs Denver

Strong Opinion – Kansas City (-4 -105)

• Patrick Mahomes is averaging 0.30 EPA/play since week 7 (3rd) when WR Rashee Rice came off suspension.
• This will be the first game of the season that Kansas City’s offense will have all 11 starters on the field, with LT Josh Simmons coming back. Simmons ranks 20th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will limit Denver edge defender Nik Bonitto, who has 46 pressures (5th).
• Overall, the Chiefs rank 2nd in pass blocking efficiency, and they will neutralize the Broncos’ pass rush with a 43% pressure rate (2nd).
• Kansas City center Creed Humphrey’s 0.8% pressure rate allowed leads all offensive linemen, and he will call out Denver’s blitzes on Sunday. The Broncos have a 42% blitz rate (4th-highest), and Mahomes ranks 10th relatively versus the blitz.
• Mahomes will have time in the pocket to look downfield and attack Denver backup cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine, who is surrendering 3.4 more yards per target than Pat Surtain.
• The first half over is better in this game because of key numbers. Full game 43 and 44 capture 7.7% of outcomes by our numbers, while 45 and 46 capture just 5.3% of outcomes. Meanwhile, first-half 21 and 22 capture only 4.9% of outcomes, while halftime 23 and 24 capture 14.5% of outcomes.
• I think the Bo Nix early game struggles compared to the fourth quarter are more noise than signal. Nix had a 47.0% success rate in the first half of games last season compared to a 43.9% success rate in the second half. If anything, Broncos head coach Sean Payton might emphasize a fast start for his offense more so in this game, given the troubles they’ve had out of the gates in 2025.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 8.0 points, with a predicted total of 49.3 points.

The First-half Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 22.5 -125 odds or better. If you have higher than -125 odds (or 23) then play the game over (44.5) at 45 or less.

Kansas City is a Strong Opinion at -4.5 or less.

Game Analysis view analysis

Note: The Best Bet total is now out of range but the Under would be a Strong Opinion if it goes back up to 47 points.

1-Star Best Bet – *PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) over Detroit

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (48.5 -115)

• Detroit’s offense had a 58.8% success rate in week 10 (2nd) with Dan Campbell taking over calling the plays, but Campbell’s feeling the need to make the change signals an underlying problem to me rather than a buy signal based on last week.
• The Commanders went into the Lions game without four starters on defense, and then interior defender Daron Payne got ejected while they lost another two cornerbacks in Trey Amos and Jonathan Jones. It was a convenient time for Campbell to take over, but I don’t believe he is on the level of former OC Ben Johnson, and I expect the Lions’ success rate to remain ~2% below last season.
• Campbell will be calling plays against the league’s top defense, according to our metrics, after the Eagles traded for cornerback Michael Carter and edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, who had 8 pressures in his debut for Philadelphia.
• Jordan Love was pressured on 40.5% of his dropbacks against the Eagles, and the Packers’ offense averaged just 3.9 yppl last Monday night.
• Jared Goff’s top two targets are WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam LaPorta, and both will struggle with their matchups on Sunday night. St. Brown is averaging 0.54 EPA/target (11th), and LaPorta is averaging 2.00 yards per route run (4th). Philadelphia nickelback Cooper DeJean is allowing just 0.66 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd), and the Eagles are conceding a league-low 38% success rate to opposing tight ends.
• Jalen Hurts is averaging 13% more yards per attempt versus man coverage compared to zone (2nd), and he has a favorable matchup as Detroit’s defense has a 38% man-coverage rate (3rd-highest).
• Eagles’ C Cam Jurgens ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency, but he could be sidelined again and is worth a half point by our metrics.
• Our model favors the Eagles by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 44.9 points.

Philadelphia is a 1-Star Best Bet at -2.5 or less and the Under (now out of range) is a 1-Star Best Bet at 47.5 or more (Strong Opinion at 47).

Game Analysis view analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Dallas (-3.5 Even) over LAS VEGAS

• The betting market has the Dallas defense implied as the worst in the NFL, but I disagree. The Cowboys are allowing 6.1 yppl (29th), but they are getting healthier and traded for three-time Pro Bowl interior defender Quinnen Williams. We have Dallas rated as the 24th defense with the current personnel.
• Cowboys LB DeMarvion Overshown and rookie CB Shavon Revel will make their season debuts on Monday night, taking snaps from LB Kenneth Murray and backup cornerbacks Reddy Steward and Trikweze Bridges. Murray has only a 4.1% run stop rate (6th-worst). Steward and Bridges are surrendering a combined 1.54 yards per cover snap.
• The trade for Williams gives Dallas one of the best interior pass-rushing trios in the NFL. Williams has beaten a league-high 57 double teams for a pressure since 2022, while Kenny Clark and Osa Odighizuwa rank 16th and 18th, respectively, in pass-rushing efficiency.
• The Raiders just lost their best remaining offensive lineman for weeks in RG Jackson Powers-Johnson, who was allowing a 5.1% pressure rate. Backup guard Alex Cappa is surrendering a 12.6% pressure rate, and he will struggle with Williams, Clark, and Odighizuwa.
• Additionally, Las Vegas LG Dylan Parham played only 33 snaps last week due to a high ankle sprain, according to head coach Pete Carroll’s post-game comments. Parham is going to suit up for this game, but likely won’t be pushing off the injured ankle at full capacity, further weakening the Raiders’ interior offensive line.
• Las Vegas left tackle Kolton Miller is sidelined, and backup Stone Forsythe ranks 53rd in pass blocking efficiency out of 61 qualifying tackles since taking over the job in week 5.
• The Raiders traded WR Jakobi Meyers at the deadline, and Geno Smith averaged only 3.6 yards per pass play last week in his first game without Meyers with the banged-up offensive line.
• Dak Prescott is one of four quarterbacks with a Turnover Worthy Play Rate below 2%. I expect Prescott to take care of the ball while throwing downfield to WR George Pickens, who has 7 receptions with at least 20 air yards (4th).
• Our model favors the Cowboys by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 47.4 points, and Dallas tends to play better against mediocre and bad teams (now 34-12-1 in the Prescott era favored by more than 3 points against a .500 or worse team). The Raiders, meanwhile, apply to an 11-45 ATS Monday night home team angle.

Dallas is a 1-Star Best Bet at -3.5 -105 or better (or -3 to -125 odds) and would be a Strong Opinion to -3.5 -115 odds.