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Lean – Under (44) – ATLANTA (-1.5) vs Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay’s defense had 6 sacks and a 57% pressure rate on Jalen Hurts last week and the pass rush will be a large factor again on Thursday night.
• Falcons’ backup right tackle Storm Norton surrendered an 8.3% pressure rate last week in his first start. He will struggle to contain edge defender Yaya Diaby, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Atlanta’s offense benefitted from a pick-six and a special teams score from a fumble recovery on a muffed punt in last week’s deceiving win over the Saints. Kirk Cousins had just a 35.0% dropback success rate in week 4.
• Buccaneers’ cornerback Zyon McCollum is conceding just 0.40 yards per cover snap (5th) and he will limit WR Drake London, who leads the Falcons with 31 targets.
• Atlanta’s offense will fall on the shoulders of RB Bijan Robinson as Tampa Bay’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.10 EPA/rush. Robinson is averaging 1.61 yards per route run (5th) and will be a contributor in the screen game as well because the Buccaneers are allowing a 55% success rate to opposing running backs (27th).
• Baker Mayfield leads the NFL with +17.1 EPA on passes under 2.5 seconds and he will continue getting the ball out quickly on Thursday night.
• Tampa Bay WR Chris Godwin has a 73% success rate (2nd) and he has a favorable matchup versus CB Dee Alford, who is surrendering 1.85 yards per slot cover snap (3rd-worst).
• Buccaneers backup RT Justin Skule has surrendered 3 sacks in as many games (3rd-most) and starter Luke Goedeke will be out for another game.
• Our model favors the Falcons by 0.3 with a predicted total of 42.1 points, but I’m using Atlanta in my spread pool based on a 51-128-5 ATS letdown situation that the Bucs apply to.

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Minnesota (-2.5) vs NY JETS

• Denver’s defense had a 43% blitz rate last week against Aaron Rodgers and New York’s quarterback averaged -0.29 EPA/play when the Broncos sent extra pass rushers.
• Rodgers is going to need to figure out answers to the blitz in a hurry as Minnesota’s defense has a 51.0% blitz rate (2nd-highest).
• The most obvious solution is a heavy-screen game. Jets RB Breece Hall is averaging 1.43 yards per route run (8th) but he will be limited by a Vikings defense that is conceding -0.28 EPA/target to opposing running backs (3rd).
• Instead, Rodgers will need to find WR Garrett Wilson when blitzed. Wilson got open on 16 routes last week, leading the NFL, and will line up across from Minnesota nickelback Byron Murphy, who is surrendering a league-high 2.03 yards per cover snap.
• Rodgers will get the ball out to Wilson quickly as rookie RT Olu Fashanu is not looking ready to be on the field. Fashanu had a rough NFL starting debut, allowing 6 of the 11 pressures charged to New York’s offensive line. The Vikings’ edge defenders have 22 pressures against right tackles.
• Minnesota’s interior offensive line is at fault for a league-high 66% of the pressures the Vikings have allowed, and they will struggle with the Jets interior defenders. Quinnen Williams 9 pressures (19th) and Javon Kinlaw ranks 11th in pass rushing efficiency.
• New York’s defense is allowing only a 26% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (2nd) and they will contain RB Aaron Jones, who is gaining 2.17 yards per route run (3rd).
• Minnesota WR Justin Jefferson is averaging 0.85 EPA/target (3rd) and head coach Kevin O’Connell will need to get him motioned into the slot. Jets outside cornerback Sauce Gardner has a 55% separation prevention rate (12th) and DJ Reed is conceding only 0.28 yards per cover snap on the other side (2nd). Meanwhile, New York nickelback Michael Carter is surrendering 1.41 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th-worst).
• The Vikings have a 69.1% motion rate (5th-highest) and the Jets defense is allowing 34% more yards per pass play against motion than not (31st).
• This game will be played in London on turf and there looks like possible rain on Sunday.
• Our model makes Minnesota a 2.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.6 points.

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CHICAGO (-4) vs Carolina

• Carolina’s defense will likely be down 5 starters this week as they’re missing both interior defenders, both linebackers, and safety Jordan Fuller. However, the Panthers can possibly limit Chicago’s offense with scheme.
• Caleb Williams’ yards per attempt versus the blitz is only 57% of his yards per attempt against a standard pass rush and his yppp versus single-high coverages is just 77% of his yppp against two-high safeties. Carolina’s defense has a 37.3% blitz rate (8th-highest) and a 51.2% single-high safety rate (5th-highest).
• The best answer for the Bears is to lean on RB D’Andre Swift, who had 165 scrimmage yards last week after a slow start to the season (he averaged just 38 scrimmage yards in the first three games).
• Carolina’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.60 EPA/target to opposing running backs and Swift leads RBs with a 72% success rate.
• Andy Dalton should have time in the pocket versus Chicago’s defense as Damien Lewis looks like he will be back in uniform this week and he leads all guards in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Panthers RT Taylor Moton ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency and he will limit edge rusher Montez Sweat, who leads the Bears with 11 pressures.
• Chicago interior defender Gervon Dexter has 9 pressures (19th) but he will be contained by RG Robert Hunt, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.
• Our model favors the Bears by 6.7 points, with a predicted total of 42.7 points, but I decided to use Carolina in my pool based on a 77-29-5 ATS situation.

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Buffalo (-1) vs HOUSTON

• Buffalo’s defense matched Baltimore’s heavy personnel packages with Base on 42% of snaps last week, despite missing both starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard, and the Ravens averaged 7.1 yppl on those plays. The Bills should have Bernard back in uniform this week which will make it harder for Houston’s offense to bully them.
• Buffalo’s defense will also likely get back starting nickelback Taron Johnson, whose backup Cam Lewis is surrendering 1.94 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 32nd out of 33 qualifying nickelbacks.
• Bills edge defender Von Miller has 3.0 sacks (13th) but has been suspended 4 games and is worth a half point to Buffalo’s defense.
• The Bills use two-high safeties on 72.9% of snaps (2nd-most) but the rate could be affected by the likely absence of S Taylor Rapp. Houston’s offense versus two-high has a yards per pass play just 84% of their yards per pass play against single-high safety coverages (28th).
• CJ Stroud hit Texans WR Nico Collins for 12 receptions and 150 yards last week, but the connection will be contained by Buffalo’s outside cornerbacks on Sunday. CB Christian Beneford has a league-high 76% separation prevention rate and CB Rasul Douglas is conceding only a 9% target rate (4th).
• Houston LG Kenyon Green ranks 7th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency but he gets a break this week with DT Ed Oliver out this week.
• The Texans have a 10.7% sack rate (5th) which will drop in this matchup against Josh Allen, who has just a 4.7% sack rate (6th).
• Houston edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter have combined for 34 pressures, but they will be limited by Buffalo’s tackles. RT Spencer Brown and LT Dion Dawkins, who rank 7th and 16^th, respectively, in pass block efficiency.
• The Texans are conceding a league-low 22% success rate to opposing tight ends and they will likely limit TE Dalton Kincaid, who is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (5th). Houston’s defense also won’t have to worry about Bills’ WR Khalil Shakir, who is out this week.
• Our model favors the Bills by 0.2 points with a predicted total of 47.2 points.

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Lean – Over (46) – JACKSONVILLE (-3) vs Indianapolis

• Trevor Lawrence leads the NFL with 9 completions on passes with at least 20 air yards, but his short passing has been a major challenge for Jacksonville’s offense.
• Lawrence has a career-high 21% off-target rate and a -8.5% completion percentage versus expectation (3rd-worst). Lawrence was -0.5% versus expectation last year and I expect his short passing to improve.
• Only 30% of Lawrence’s passing yards have come after the catch but the Jaguars are likely to have TE Evan Engram back in uniform this week. Engram had 528 yards after the catch last season, ranking 2nd among tight ends.
• Anthony Richardson has only 2 yards passing versus the blitz this season, but he is averaging 8.3 yppp against a standard pass rush and he has a favorable matchup on Sunday as Jacksonville’s defense leads the NFL with an 82.1% standard pass rush rate.
• Jaguars edge defender Josh Hines-Allen got a concussion in the third quarter last game and is likely out this week. Hines-Allen ranked 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency last season and is worth 1.7 points by our metrics.
• Jacksonville’s pass rush will not be able to get home without Hines-Allen. Jaguars’ interior defender Roy Robertson-Harris ranks 17th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will likely be kept in check by LG Quenton Nelson, who has conceded 4 pressures (9th).
• Jacksonville’s defense will also possibly be without both starting linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd, who are worth 0.9 points combined.
• The Jaguars call middle-field open coverage on 65.6% of snaps (5th-highest) and they will struggle as Indianapolis is averaging 41% more yards per pass play versus middle-field open than middle-field closed coverage (2nd).
• Colts’ slot WR Josh Downs was out to start the year but he had 9 targets for 82 yards last week and he has a favorable matchup on the inside across from nickelback Jarrian Jones, who is allowing 1.40 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th-worst).
• Rain is expected in Jacksonville during the game, which is the only factor stopping this game from flying over.
• Our model favors the Jaguars by 6.1 with a predicted total of 48.5 (weather adjustment includes, as it always is).

Game Analysis view analysis

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DENVER (-3/-2.5) vs Las Vegas

• Bo Nix had -7 passing yards in the first half last week and finished the game averaging 2.4 yards per attempt which was the lowest for a winning quarterback in the last 60 years.
• Nix has only a 37.9% success rate in the first month of his career (31st) but the positive takeaway is he’s been difficult for opposing defenses to get on the ground. Nix has only an 8% pressure-to-sack rate (2nd).
• Denver’s defense has been one of the surprises of the season, as that unit has allowed -0.17 EPA/play (3rd).
• The Broncos have a 46.4% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest) and Gardner Minshew’s dink-and-dunk could struggle against the scheme this week. The Raiders yards per attempt against man is only 66% of the yards per attempt versus zone coverage (29th).
• Las Vegas RT Thayer Munford is likely out again and backup DJ Glaze is surrendering an 8.5% pressure rate. Glaze will get trounced by Denver edge defender Jonathon Cooper, who ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• The Raiders could also be without starting RG Dylan Parham while LG Cody Whitehair has surrendered 8 pressures (12th-most). The Las Vegas interior offensive line will lose out to Zach Allen, who ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency.
• It looks like the Raiders will be without their two most valuable players again this week in edge rusher Maxx Crosby and wide receiver Davante Adams, who has a 59% success rate (14th).
• Las Vegas WR Tre Tucker has an 88% separation rate (3rd) and had 41 yards filling in for Adams last week, but he will likely struggle getting open against CB Pat Surtain, who is conceding only 0.60 yards per cover snap (13th).
• The Broncos are allowing -0.29 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (2nd) and they will limit rookie TE Brock Bowers, who is gaining 2.06 yards per route run (3rd).
• Our model makes Denver a 5.7-point favorite, with a predicted total of 36.6 points, but the Broncos apply to a 42-95-1 ATS letdown situation that applies to teams that have allowed single-digit points in their last two games. The line is my pool was 3 points and I used the Raiders. If your pool line is -2.5 then Denver is a slightly better choice.

Game Analysis view analysis

Game Analysis view analysis

Game Analysis view analysis

Game Analysis view analysis

Game Analysis view analysis