Game Analysis

San Francisco (-2) vs Kansas City

Lean – Over (47.5)

· The market would’ve favored San Francisco by 5 over Kansas City at the end of the regular season. This may sound crazy now but remember the 49ers were -6.5 on Christmas hosting the Ravens, who were 4.5-point favorites over the Chiefs last round.

· Both these teams have seen their opponents have a higher success rate than them in the playoffs with the Chiefs having a -0.3% net success rate and the 49ers having a -0.6% net success rate. So, what’s changed in the postseason to justify the market dropping San Francisco’s win probability 14 percentage points?

· The Chiefs are +0.18 net EPL/play versus the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens while the 49ers are +0.10 net EPA/play against the Packers and Lions. A decent-sized gap especially considering the difference in opponent quality. Kansas City’s playoff opponents on average have been 2.1 points better than San Francisco’s opponents according to our numbers and the Chiefs have had two road games.

· Furthermore, there is the sense the 49ers are lucky to be here after Green Bay’s win probability was as high as 80% in the Divisional Round and Detroit’s win probability was above 90% in the second half of the Conference Championship.

· Ultimately, Brock Purdy had to use his legs with his Redzone run on the game-winning drive versus the Packers – adding 7% of win probability-  and he added 10.6 expected points on scrambles against the Lions. The 49ers wouldn’t have made it here without Purdy’s mobility that is an element that San Francisco didn’t have with Jimmy Garoppolo 4 years ago when they lost of the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

San Francisco Offense vs Kansas City Defense

· I don’t think Shanahan will want to put as much on Purdy’s plate this week considering the Chiefs were the only defense in the NFL to concede a lower dropback success rate (39.7%) than rush success rate (39.9%).

· Baltimore’s game plan in the AFC Championship reflects they did not expect Kansas City’s defense to put so many defensive backs on the field. The Chiefs finished with a 41% Dime personnel rate, which completely stifled Lamar Jackson in the second half when he averaged -0.33 EPA/play versus those looks.

· Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been content to let teams run the ball while devoting resources to shut down passing attacks and force long drives. Kyle Shanahan is the type of coach happy to conduct long drives and continue running if the numbers are there. Shanahan’s 49ers had an 82% run play rate in the NFC Championship versus the Packers four years ago – the last time they made the Super Bowl.

· San Francisco’s offense will be under center when the Chiefs use lighter personnel and RB Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL with 5.6 yards per carry when Purdy is under center. The 49ers will get in their 21 personnel package, which they used at a rate 5x the league average with All-Pro fullback Kyle Juszczyk on the field, and they’ll attempt to exploit Kansas City’s defense with zone running schemes.

· The Chiefs allowed a 39.9% rush success rate in the regular season (15th) but they were among the worst in the league versus zone runs (51.9% success allowed, which ranked 29th) and San Francisco’s offense calls zone blocking on 75% of their carries.

· The 49ers have averaged a league-high 0.43 EPA/play versus the blitz this season and just 0.21 EPA/play when not blitzed, and I expect Chiefs’ DC Spagnuolo to blitz less than he normally does and employ his four-man defensive line to rush Purdy. San Francisco’s doesn’t have a particularly impressive offensive line so Spagnuolo will hope Kansas City’s front can get home with a standard pass rush.

· The 49ers ranked 23rd in pass-blocking efficiency this year which was the 2nd-worst in the Kyle Shanahan era slightly above the 2020 offensive line that finished 24th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· It’s basically All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams and a bunch of replacement-level players protecting Purdy.

· San Francisco RT Colton McKivitz surrendered 9 sacks this year (4th-most) and he will struggle across from edge defender George Karlaftis, who ranked 16th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· McKivitz will also have reps against Kansas City All-Pro DT Chris Jones, who had 75 pressures (2nd) and occasionally lines up across from tackles on crucial downs. Nevertheless, Jones does the majority of his damage on the interior where he will have another favorable matchup versus 49ers RG Jon Feliciano, who didn’t even earn the starting role coming out of training camp but had to take over for Spencer Burford, who ranked 54th in pass blocking efficiency out of 56 qualifying guards. Feliciano hasn’t been too much better, allowing a 6.6% pressure rate compared to Burford’s 7.8%.

· Jones and Karlaftis should dominate but the Chiefs defensive line took a hit in the AFC Title with Charles Omenihu’s torn ACL. Omenihu had a 12.2% pressure rate, and his pass-rushing snaps will be given to Mike Danna and Malik Herring, who are combining for a 7.8% pressure rate. Omenihu is worth 0.4 points according to our metrics.

· About half of San Francisco’s receiving production this year went to their two wide receivers, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Aiyuk gained 3.01 yards per route run (3rd) and Samuel averaged 0.45 EPA/target (9th).

· Kansas City’s defense conceded a league-low 43.8 yards per game to opposing WR1’s but the question in this game is which 49ers wide receiver the Chiefs consider more dangerous and will try to contain with CB L’Jarius Sneed, who allowed only 0.75 yards per cover snap (9th).

· Kansas City’s defense has conceded just 37% of opposing targets to outside wide receivers and Aiyuk leads San Francisco with 76% on his snaps aligned outside. I believe it is most likely we see Sneed versus Aiyuk for the majority of snaps, freeing up Samuel on the inside.

· Samuel had no restrictions on his shoulder in the Conference Championship as he had a team-high 8 receptions. The Chiefs lead the NFL with two-high safety coverages on 63% of snaps and Samuel has been Purdy’s outlet against this kind of defense.

· Deebo had a 27% target share versus two-high in 11 games when the 49ers receiving corps with intact this season, compared to Aiyuk’s 18% target share and TE George Kittle’s 16% target share in those weeks.

· Kittle led tight ends with 0.66 EPA/target but he will be limited by Kansas City’s defense, which conceded just a 47% success rate to tight ends (5th).

· Purdy is 0.31 EPA/play better than average on screens this season and he will throw plenty to Samuel and RB Christian McCaffrey. The Chiefs yield screens and swing passes to avoid gashing plays down the field and running backs have 28 targets in three games versus Kansas City’s defense in the postseason.

· McCaffrey’s 56% pass success rate led the league’s running backs this year and it jumps to a 61% success rate against man coverage. The Chiefs call the 7th-most man coverage in the NFL.

· McCaffrey will also give Kansas City’s defense problems when lined up in the slot or out wide, as his 250 receiving yards from those positions was more than 100 more than any other running back in 2023.

Kansas City Offense vs San Francisco Defense

· Patrick Mahomes completed 26 of 28 attempts with less than 10 air yards in the win over the Ravens, which continued a trend we’ve seen from the Chiefs offense since they traded Tyreek Hill. Opponents have utilized two high safeties to limit Kansas City’s explosiveness for the last two seasons with San Francisco’s defense being the notable exception.

· The 49ers challenged Mahomes with more players near the line of scrimmage last year in week 7 and he responded with 41% of his attempts having at least 10 air yards. Mahomes threw for 423 yards and the Chiefs scored 44 points in Santa Clara. Mahomes averaged 0.70 EPA/play which is the most San Francisco’s defense has surrendered since 2020.

· The 49ers are not well positioned to adjust and call abnormal coverages with their safeties in this game because they’re not especially strong at the position since S Talanoa Hufanga tore his ACL in week 11. San Francisco’s defense is surrendering 0.13 EPA/dropback more since their All-Pro safety was sidelined.

· Andy Reid exposed the 49ers edge rushers’ width and aggressiveness last season and I believe defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will instruct Nick Bosa and Chase Young to not get up field as much to avoid getting beaten laterally like we also saw against the Packers and Lions. San Franciso’s defense is surrendering a 75% rush success rate outside the tackles in the playoffs.

· Bosa ranked 7th in pass-rushing efficiency but Kansas City RT Jawaan Taylor stands a chance of containing the Pro Bowl edge defender if his wide 9 width rush is partially shackled.

· Chiefs left tackle Donovan Smith will line up against Young, who has not been the same since he was traded from Washington. Young is averaging 2.9 pressures per game for the 49ers compared to 5.4 pressures per game in the first 8 weeks with the Commanders.

· Kansas City’s interior offensive line was at fault for only 36% of the pressures this season (2nd-fewest) thanks to C Creed Humphrey ranking 4th in pass blocking efficiency and All-Pro LG Joe Thuney. However, Thuney will likely miss this game with a pectoral issue.

· Thuney was conceding just a 5% pressure rate, but backup guard Nick Allegretti has filled in well so far also allowing a 5% pressure rate. Allegretti will have his hands full against 49ers DT Javon Hargrave, who had 52 pressures (12th).

· San Francisco interior defender Arik Armstead ranked 10th in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be limited by Humphrey and RG Trey Smith.

· Mahomes has been pressured on a third of his dropbacks this postseason but he has only been sacked twice and is adding and average of 1 expected point per scramble. Also, Mahomes had 6 rushes for 44 yards, excluding kneel downs, in the last Super Bowl versus this defense.

· Mahomes has shown an ability to raise his play in the playoffs throughout his career with only a 1.7% PFF turnover-worthy play rate compared to 2.8% in the regular season.

· Scrambling more and protecting the ball has resulted in Mahomes averaging 0.31 EPA/play in the postseason compared to 0.27 EPA/play in the regular season, which equates to 1.4 points per game better when the stakes are higher and the defenses are tougher.

· Mahomes’ running mate throughout this era has been TE Travis Kelce, whose 156 playoff receptions passed Jerry Rice for most in NFL history last game.

· Kelce had a 60% success rate this year (4th) but the 49ers allowed -0.06 EPA/target to tight ends (2nd). However, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson found a blueprint for getting a tight end involved versus San Francisco’s defense as rookie Sam LaPorta had 9 catches for 97 yards in the NFC Title.

· The 49ers are surrendering a 46% success rate versus screens this year (27th) and Patrick Mahomes had a league-leading 14.8% screen rate. Kelce leads the NFL with 5 receptions on screens during this year’s playoffs and he should get a couple more on Sunday.

· Chiefs WR Rashee Rice averaged 2.39 yards per route run (10th) and 47.2% of his targets were from the slot. Rice has a favorable matchup on the inside as San Francisco nickelback Deommodore Lenoir is allowing 1.21 yards per cover snap in the slot since becoming the starter in week 10 (6th-worst).

· The 49ers defense has surrendered 293 rushing yards the last two games and RB Isiah Pacheco has 63 carries already in the playoffs.

· However, I do not think San Francisco’s porous run defense will play much of a role this week as Kansas City’s offense had the league’s highest pass play rate adjusted for the situation and they won’t take the ball out of Mahomes’ hands unless they have a commanding lead like they did versus Miami and Baltimore. This game is more likely to be back-and-forth like when the Chiefs were in Buffalo and Pacheco had just 15 rushes.

· Our model using this season’s metrics only would favor San Francisco by 3.3 points, but priors (i.e. preseason ratings) are a significant factor in the Super Bowl and overall the model favors the 49ers by 1.8 points, with a predicted total of 49.4 points.

The trends do favor Kansas City, as teams coming off two upset wins are 11-1-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1980 (10-0 ATS since 2001) and teams coming off 2 playoff games in which they were pick or favorites (SF) are just 4-17-1 ATS (against teams not off 2 favorite/pick games), including 0-14-1 ATS from dog to -7.

 

Prop Plays (Strong Opinions)

Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 Carries (-115) to -130

· The Chiefs were the only defense in the NFL to concede a lower dropback success rate (39.7%) than rush success rate (39.9%).

· Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been content to let teams run the ball while devoting resources to shut down passing attacks and force long drives. Kyle Shanahan is the type of coach happy to conduct long drives and continue running if the numbers are there. Reminder: Shanahan’s 49ers had an 82% run play rate in the NFC Championship versus the Packers four years ago the last time they made the Super Bowl.

· The Chiefs surrendered a 51.9% rush success rate versus zone runs (29th) and San Francisco’s run offense has a favorable matchup as they already call zone run on 75% of their carries.

 

Shortest Touchdown Over 1.5 Yards (+115) to -110

· This happened in only 47% of games this season and neither of teams are “tush push” offenses.

· The Chiefs have not run a QB sneak since Patrick Mahomes dislocated his kneecap while attempting a quarterback sneak in 2019 which makes it harder for them to convert 1 yard.

· Bill Vinovich’s crew does not like to call the huge DPI in the endzone that puts the ball at the 1-yard line. Vinovich’s crew averaged just 13.1 yards of pass interference per game this season (5th-lowest).

 

Kyle Juszczyk Over 3.5 Receiving Yards (-120) to -130

(Alternate play – Over 0.5 Receptions at -160 or better)

· The 49ers will get in their 21 personnel package which they used at a rate 5x the league average with All-Pro fullback Kyle Juszczyk on the field as long as the Chiefs are using lighter personnel.

· Kyle Shanahan has faced Steve Spagnuolo’s defense twice with Juszczyk in San Francisco. Juszczyk had 39 receiving yards in Super Bowl LIV and 34 receiving yards last season versus Kansas City’s defense.

 

Chiefs First Sack (-170) to -180

· Andy Reid exposed the 49ers edge rushers’ width and aggressiveness last season and I believe defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will instruct Nick Bosa and Chase Young to not get upfield as much to avoid getting beaten laterally like we also saw against the Packers and Lions. San Franciso’s defense is surrendering a 75% rush success rate outside the tackles in the playoffs.

· Bosa ranked 7th in pass-rushing efficiency but Kansas City RT Jawaan Taylor stands a chance of containing the Pro Bowl edge defender if his wide 9 width rush is partially shackled.

· The Chiefs led the NFL with 30 hold calls against their offense but the tackles will likely get away with them on Sunday as Bill Vinovich’s crew averaged a league-low 1.4 offensive holding penalties per game.

 

Christian McCaffrey Over 129 Scrimmage Yards (-115) to -130

(Alternate – split play between over rush yards and over receiving yards)

· In addition to the analysis above about carries, we think McCaffrey will be a major part of the passing game.

· The Chiefs lead the NFL using two-high safety coverages on 63% of snaps thus yielding screens and swing passes to avoid gashing plays down the field.

· Running backs have 28 targets in three games versus Kansas City’s defense in the postseason.

· Purdy is 0.31 EPA/play better than average on screens.

· McCaffrey’s 56% pass success rate led the league’s running backs this year and it jumps to a 61% success rate against man coverage. The Chiefs call the 7th-most man coverage in the NFL.

· McCaffrey will also give Kansas City’s defense problems when lined up in the slot or out wide as his 250 receiving yards from those positions was more than 100 more than any other running back in 2023.

 

Deommodore Lenoir Over 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-105) to -120

· Chiefs WR Rashee Rice averaged 2.39 yards per route run (10th) and 47.2% of his targets were from the slot. Rice has a favorable matchup on the inside as San Francisco nickelback Deommodore Lenoir is allowing 1.21 yards per cover snap in the slot since becoming the starter in week 10 (6th-worst) and the Chiefs will want to get the rookie WR the ball.

· The 49ers are surrendering a 46% success rate versus screens this year (27th) and Patrick Mahomes had a league-leading 14.8% screen rate. Typically screens attack the area of the field where the nickelback is whether it be Rice or Kelce.

· Lenior has been on the field for 100% of the defensive snaps in the playoffs and had 5 tackles + assists versus both the Packers and Lions.

· Kyle Hamilton was Baltimore’s slot corner versus Kansas City’s offense and had 11 combined tackles. Bills nickelback Taron Johnson had 6 tackles + assists versus the Chiefs the week before. Dolphins nickelback Kader Kohou had 7 combined tackles in Kansas City in the opening round.