My College Best Bets are 2046-1684-64 (55%) on a Star Basis for +222.1 Stars Since 1999, including season win totals and futures, and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 639-559-15.
I have started this season 6-3 on my Best Bets and 5-3 on my Strong Opinions (see Recap below).
Week 4 is the week when I start having 5 to 10 Best Bets per week and I should have this week’s Best Bets and Strong Opinions available by Thursday.
Details on my College Football subscriptions are below.
The Free Analysis sides were 23-13-1 against the spread in Week 3, including 8-5 on sides with a predicted margin that was 4 points or more from the spread. The Totals were 20-16, including 3-2 on differences from the line of 6 points or more, which is where they are historically profitable.
So far this season, Free Analysis sides are 65-50-1 overall and 28-17 on games with a difference or 4+ points from the spread. Totals are just 54-60 and 7-5 on differences of 6 points or more from the line.
The record on all Free Analysis sides is now 1394-1208-57 ATS since 2013, which is very good picking nearly every game over 4-plus years. The Free Analysis sides in which my predicted margin was 4 points or more away from the line are now 498-409-19. Totals on the Free pages are now 1117-1077-14 in the 4-plus seasons I’ve been tracking them.
Check out this week’s College Football Free Analysis.
Week 3 Recap and Season to Date Results
College Best Bets 6-3 for +2.5 Stars!
I had my first losing week of the season but the damage wasn’t bad since I had just one Best Bet this week and it was a 1-Star play. That Best Bet was on Eastern Michigan +4 and the Eagles lost by 7 points to Buffalo.
All 3 of my Best Bet losses this season have been decided by 4 points or less while my 6 Best Bet winners have won the bet by an average of 15.4 points. The Eastern Michigan game was close and the stats would project only a 5 points loss, but I will grade it as a deserved loss since the last score by EMU to pull within 7 points came in the final minute of the game and the turnover luck was even.
My Strong Opinions were 2-2 based on the release lines, winning with Indiana -14 and the Colorado State at Florida Over 56.5 and losing with Maryland -16.5 and with the SMU-Michigan Under. The CSU-Florida total went up to 59.5 points but it was only a Strong Opinion at 58 or less and the game totaled 58 points, so nobody lost that game as a Strong Opinion. Strong Opinions are now 5-3 this season (4-2 sides, 1-1 totals).
Overall, my ratings performed better than I expected in week 3, as the predictions on all sides were 25-16-1 against the spread in Week 3, including 9-6 on sides with a predicted margin that was 4 points or more from the spread. The predictions on all Totals were 22-17, including 4-3 on differences from the line of 6 points or more, which is where they are historically profitable.
So far this season, all side predictions are 72-54-1 ATS overall and 32-21 on games with a difference or 4+ points from the spread (that includes Best Bets and Strong Opinions), so my ratings have been good so far this season and the math model starts to kick in this week. You can view all predictions in the College Free Analysis section.
I have found that week 3 is the trickiest week to handicap, which is why I had only 1 Best Bet, but I will start having 5 to 10 Best Bets per week starting in week 4.
For details on last season you can visit my 2017 College Football Recap page.
NFL Service – Results of new Play-by-Play model:
2016-17 NFL Best Bets are 137-101-2 (58.0%) – 92-48-2 on sides, 44-48 on totals, 1-2 1st-half totals, 0-1 team totals, 0-1 teasers, 0-1 season win totals.
2016-17 NFL Strong Opinions are 92-71-4 (56.4%) – 41-43-3 sides, 43-27-1 totals, 1-0 1st-half totals, 7-1 Super Bowl prop bets.