College Football

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My College Football Best Bets are 2485-2033-93 (55.0%) on a Star Basis, including season win totals, for +253.0 Stars Since 1999 and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 814-704-19.

I am now 37-30-2 on my College Best Bets this season.

Weekly an season recap below.

2018-2024 College Football Results: 

Best Bets: 285-227-17 (55.7%)
Strong Opinions: 161-135-3 (54.4%)

College Bowl Update

The Bowl Best Bets are 3-1 so far with a loss on Tulane +13.5 but wins on the Notre Dame Team Total Under 29, the USC Team Total Over 24 and BYU +3 over Colorado. The Bowl Strong Opinions are 1-2 and the Leans are 10-7.

For the season the game Best Bets are now 37-30-2 for +1.4 Stars and the Strong Opinions are 20-27-1.

The Season win totals ended up at 5-7-1 for -5.95 Stars but would have been 7-6 for +3.35 Stars if not for one unlucky Hail Mary pass costing us 9.3 Stars – the most (by far) I’ve ever lost on one play (Win Total recap below).

Win Totals Best Bets Results:

I lost for just the second time ever on my season win totals, but one unlucky play cost us 9.3 Stars, as the Hail Mary that allowed Jacksonville State to beat Louisiana Tech led to us losing 3.0 Stars on the Jacksonville State Under 7.5 wins (+110) instead of winning 3.3 Stars and it also cost us a win on Louisiana Tech’s Team Total Over 5 wins for 3-Stars, which ended up pushing instead of winning.

Thus, the Win totals ended up being 5-7-1 for -5.95 Stars instead of 7-6 for +3.35 Stars. I am now 60-31-2 for +37.15 Stars all-time on season win totals.

Jacksonville State (3-Stars Under 7.5 +110) (LOST, -3.0 Stars) Went 8-4 the season. That Hail Mary win against Louisiana Tech was the killer in what ended up being a 6.3-Stars swing from +3.0 Stars to -3.3 Stars.

Louisiana Tech (3-Stars Over 5 -110) (PUSH) won their final game to finish 5-7. Louisiana Tech has been frustrating all season as they lost 3 games in overtime and 4 games in total on the final play of the game. The loss to Jacksonville State on a Hail Mary pass cost us 3 Stars.

Memphis (2-Stars Under 9 -115)(LOST, -2.3 Stars) They upset Tulane as a double-digit dog in the final week to get to 10- wins.

Miss State (2-Stars Over 4 -120) (LOST, -2.4 Stars) The Bulldogs were 2-10.

Iowa State (2-Stars Over 7.5 -135) (WON, +2.0 Stars). The Cyclones were 10-2.

LSU (2-Stars Under 9 +105) (WON, +2.1 Stars).The Tigers were 8-4.

Troy (2-Stars Under 6.5 -130) (WON, +2.0 Stars) was 4-8.

UAB (2-Stars Over 6.5 +125) (LOST, -2.0 Stars). UAB was just 3-9.

USC (2-Stars Over 7.5 -110) (LOST, -2.2 Stars) was just 6-6. This one is the most frustrating given that 5 of their 6 losses were one-possession games that went down to the wire, with multiple 4^th-quarter blown leads.

Arizona (1-Star Over 7.5 -115) (LOST, -1.15 Stars). The Wildcats were just 4-8 and this was my worst bet, as I underestimated the coaching change.

Indiana (1-Star Over 5.5 -150) (WON, +1.0 Stars). The Hoosiers were 11-1.

South Florida (1-Star Under 7.5 -140) (WON, +1.0 Stars). USF was 6-6.

Virginia Tech (1-Star over 8.5 +110) (LOST, -1.0 Stars). The Hokies were just 6-6.

The Free Analysis page Leans were 5-6 in week 12 and are now 79-56-2 on the season.

The sides overall were 18-18-1 in Week 12 with the Leans (i.e 4 or more point differences between my predicted margin and the line) going 4-4. The totals were 20-20 overall, including 1-2 on the specified Leans (that includes the Team Total Loss).

For the season the record on all sides is 232-210-8 ATS (153-125-6 on 2 point differences from the line or more), including 60-41-2 on Leans, and the record on all totals this season is 245-215-4 with the specified Leans being 19-15.

The record on all Free Analysis sides is now 3111-2890-108 ATS since 2013, which is very good picking nearly every game over 11-plus years. The Free Analysis sides in which my predicted margin was 4 points or more away from the line (i.e Leans) are a profitable 944-784-34.

Totals on the Free pages are now 2918-2752-59 in the 10-plus seasons I’ve been tracking them. Starting in 2022 I have chosen selected Leans on totals and those are now 72-40-1 in 2-plus seasons (19-15 this season).

The spreads posted are the consensus lines at the time I posted each analysis.

Check out this week’s College Football Free Analysis.