The Free Analysis sides were 19-18 against the spread in Week 7, including 8-2 on sides with a predicted margin that was 4 points or more from the spread. The Totals were 20-19, including 4-2 on differences from the line of 6 points or more, which is where they are historically profitable.

 

So far this season, Free Analysis sides are 143-134-2 overall and 55-40-1 on games with a difference or 4+ points from the spread. Totals are just 131-150 but 25-20 on differences of 6 points or more from the line.

 

The record on all Free Analysis sides is now 1482-1292-58 ATS since 2013, which is very good picking nearly every game over 4-plus years. The Free Analysis sides in which my predicted margin was 4 points or more away from the line are now 525-432-20. Totals on the Free pages are now 1194-1167-14 in the 4-plus seasons I’ve been tracking them.

 

The spreads posted are the consensus lines at the time I posted each analysis.

I am off to dinner with the family (in-laws in town) and will continue posting the free analysis around 8 pm Pacific.

Top 25

Vanderbilt @
(14) Kentucky

Sat, Oct 20 4:30 PM

Rotation: 311, Odds: Kentucky -12.5, Total: 46.5

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KENTUCKY (-12.5)  29   Vanderbilt  17

My math model favors Kentucky by 14 points in this game but the Wildcats apply to a 15-57-2 ATS situation that plays against favorites following their first loss when facing a team with a losing record. I’ll pass.

(20) Cincinnati @
Temple

Sat, Oct 20 9:00 AM

Rotation: 313, Odds: Temple -3.5, Total: 48.5

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(10) UCF @
East Carolina

Sat, Oct 20 4:00 PM

Rotation: 315, Odds: East Carolina +21.5, Total: 64.5

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Maryland @
(19) Iowa

Sat, Oct 20 9:00 AM

Rotation: 319, Odds: Iowa -10, Total: 44.5

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IOWA (-10)  27   Maryland  19

My math model favors Iowa by 9.7 points, so the line is fair, but the Hawkeyes are just 13-30 ATS as a favorite of more than 7 points following a victory under coach Ferentz, including 4-16 ATS after a conference win.

(6) Michigan @
(24) Michigan St.

Sat, Oct 20 9:00 AM

Rotation: 331, Odds: Michigan St. +7, Total: 41

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Michigan (-7)  25   MICHIGAN STATE  15

Michigan has not been as good on the road (10-6 straight-up and 6-10 ATS) as they’ve been at home under coach Jim Harbaugh, but most of those bad games were against equal or better teams (0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS as a road dog or pick). Michigan is 10-1 straight-up and a decent 5-5 ATS as a road favorite under Harbaugh and they should beat Michigan State by more than a touchdown.

Michigan State is coming off an upset win at Penn State but the Spartans were outplayed 4.7 yards per play to 6.3 yppl in that game and they’ve only outgained their opponents by 0.3 yppl this season. Michigan State is just average offensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the Spartans are a good 0.7 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). However, MSU’s mediocre attack doesn’t figure to have many scoring opportunities against a Michigan defense that sits atop my ratings at 2.0 yppl better than average (3.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team). Michigan has only allowed an average of 15.4 points per game and that’s about what they should allow to the Spartans in this game.

The Michigan offensive will determine whether they cover the number and the Wolverines actually have an advantage over MSU’s quality top unit. Michigan has averaged 38 points on 6.5 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), so they’re 0.2 yppl better than the Michigan State defense.

My math model favors Michigan by 11.7 points but my concern is that the Wolverines have scored only 37 points in two road games this season. I can live with the 17 points scored against a very good Notre Dame defense but scoring just 20 points against a mediocre Northwestern defense is cause for concern. I’m not going to let that one game distract me from the big picture – which is Michigan is much better than Michigan State.

(2) Ohio St. @
Purdue

Sat, Oct 20 4:30 PM

Rotation: 333, Odds: Purdue +12, Total: 68.5

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Ohio State (-12)  38   PURDUE  31

Ohio State has an elite passing quarterback in Dwayne Haskins and very good special teams. That’s it. The rest of the components (run offense, run defense, pass defense) are mediocre for the Buckeyes. Ohio State is actually a below average running team (5.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.9 yprp to an average team) while being slightly worse than average defending both the run (5.8 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yprp against an average team) and the pass (5.7 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.6 yppp). Hawkins has been great, however, averaging 9.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback and the Buckeyes are throwing the ball 4o times per game, which has been enough to keep them unbeaten despite their flaws in other areas.

Purdue won’t be able to stop Haskins from being just as good as he’s been all season but the Boilermakers have a very good offense that’s averaged 6.9 yards per play in 6 games against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, and they should be able to score a good number of points against a mediocre Ohio State defense. One thing the Buckeyes’ defense has been good at is bending but not breaking, as they’ve only allowed 19.1 points per game despite allowing 5.8 yppl. However, a lot of that discrepancy is surely random and my math favors the Buckeyes by just 10 points in this game.

I’m calling for an even close game because Purdue has my highest technical analysis rating, applying to a 46-8-1 ATS subset of a 130-52-2 ATS situation while Ohio State applies to a 12-46 ATS unbeaten road favorite situation.

(1) Alabama @
Tennessee

Sat, Oct 20 12:30 PM

Rotation: 335, Odds: Tennessee +28.5, Total: 57

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Alabama (-28.5)  44   TENNESSEE  15

It’s tough to play against Alabama because they can pretty much win these types of games by as many points as they’d like by playing their starters longer than they have been playing them. However, I played Tennessee as a Best Bet last week and I do think the Vols are a bit underrated (although not as much as before they won straight up at Auburn). Unfortunately, the Vols apply to a negative 28-83-2 ATS home underdog letdown situation based on last week’s upset win.

(18) Penn St. @
Indiana

Sat, Oct 20 12:30 PM

Rotation: 343, Odds: Indiana +14.5, Total: 59.5

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Penn State (-14.5)  35   INDIANA  22

My math model favors Penn State by 15.5 points but back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State have knocked the Nittany Lions out of playoff contention and they may be feeling sorry for themselves rather than focusing on Indiana this week. In fact, Penn State applies to a 3-34-2 ATS situation that applies to road favorites coming off their first two losses of the season.

Illinois @
(23) Wisconsin

Sat, Oct 20 9:00 AM

Rotation: 345, Odds: Wisconsin -24.5, Total: 57

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WISCONSIN (-24.5)  41   Illinois  19

Extreme winds are expected, which will affect the passing game, but Illinois runs the ball really well (252 rushing yards at 6.2 yards per rushing play) and Wisconsin has had trouble defending the run (5.6 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average just 4.9 yprp against an average team). Wisconsin will also be able to run effectively against slightly below average run defense but the Badgers will be hurt more by the wind in the passing game because Illinois sucks throwing the ball anyway and throws mostly short passes. I’ll lean slightly with Illinois plus the points and I’ll still lean over despite the win (I’d project 65.7 points without a wind adjustment).

(12) Oregon @
(25) Washington St.

Sat, Oct 20 4:30 PM

Rotation: 367, Odds: Washington St. -3, Total: 68

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Colorado @
(15) Washington

Sat, Oct 20 12:30 PM

Rotation: 369,

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I have not completed my analysis on this game. I start posting the Free Analysis on Thursday and usually have all analysis completed by early Saturday morning.

Connecticut @
(21) South Florida

Sat, Oct 20 4:00 PM

Rotation: 381,

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I have not completed my analysis on this game. I start posting the Free Analysis on Thursday and usually have all analysis completed by early Saturday morning.

(9) Oklahoma @
TCU

Sat, Oct 20 9:00 AM

Rotation: 383,

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I have not completed my analysis on this game. I start posting the Free Analysis on Thursday and usually have all analysis completed by early Saturday morning.

(16) No Carolina St. @
(3) Clemson

Sat, Oct 20 12:30 PM

Rotation: 389,

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I have not completed my analysis on this game. I start posting the Free Analysis on Thursday and usually have all analysis completed by early Saturday morning.

(22) Mississippi St. @
(5) LSU

Sat, Oct 20 4:00 PM

Rotation: 403,

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I have not completed my analysis on this game. I start posting the Free Analysis on Thursday and usually have all analysis completed by early Saturday morning.