In week 11 my Free Analysis sides were just 14-22 overall, but were a decent 9-8 on games with a difference or 4+ points from the spread. Totals were 23-17, including 2-3 on differences of 6 points or more from the line, which are historically profitable (37-29 last season and now 26-25 this season after starting 0-5 in week 1).

 

For the season, the Free Analysis sides are now 218-201-9, and 68-56-5 on games with a difference or 4+ points from the spread. Totals are now just 215-225-8 and 26-25 on differences of 6 points or more (although 15-8 the last 5 weeks).

 

The record on all Free Analysis sides is now 1844-1632-71 ATS since 2013, which is very good picking nearly every game over 6-plus years. The Free Analysis sides in which my predicted margin was 4 points or more away from the line are now 637-529-27. Totals on the Free pages are now 1562-1519-24 in the 5-plus seasons I’ve been tracking them.

 

The spreads posted are the consensus lines at the time I posted each analysis and that is the line is use to grade the Free Analysis.

Once again, I will not have time to do any written analysis on these games. I will still put in just as much time adjusting the math model for current personnel/injuries and will incorporate some situational analysis but this time of year, with basketball overlapping with football, I just don’t have the time to write up the Free games. 

College Football Rotation

Eastern Mich @
Akron

Tue, Nov 12 3:00 PM PT

Rotation: 301, Odds: Akron +17, Total: 46.5

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Eastern Michigan (-17)  34   AKRON  14

Akron is 0-9 ATS while losing 7 of their 9 games by 21 points or more (the exceptions being UAB and an equally bad UMass team). The oddsmakers can’t seem to make the line big enough and my math favors Eastern Michigan by 20 points in this game.

Western Mich @
Ohio

Tue, Nov 12 3:30 PM PT

Rotation: 303, Odds: Ohio +1, Total: 62.5

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Western Michigan (-1) 33   OHIO  32

Bowling Green @
Miami Ohio

Wed, Nov 13 5:00 PM PT

Rotation: 305, Odds: Miami Ohio -17, Total: 49

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MIAMI-OHIO (-17)  33   Bowling Green  12

Miami-Ohio has a really good defense, as the RedHawks have yielded just 5.5 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team. That unit held their own against good teams Iowa, Cincinnati, and Ohio State (on a relative yards per play allowed basis) and they’ve given up just 4.9 yppl and 23.8 points per game to MAC opponents that are 1.1 yppl better than Bowling Green’s offense with Grant Loy at quarterback.

Bowling Green has faced only two defenses that are average or better defensively and they were shutout in both games by Kansas State and Notre Dame. The Falcons are averaging just 14 points per game against defenses that are 0.9 yppl worse than Miami’s defense and I project just 12 points for the Falcons in this game. Miami-Ohio tends to struggle offensively (just 4.8 yppl and 19.5 points per game) but the RedHawks have moved the ball pretty well in their last 3 games against bad defensive teams (6.2 yppl) and Bowling Green’s defense is the worst unit they’ve faced this season (1.3 yppl worse than average).

My math favors Miami-Ohio by 19 points even after adjusting for Bowling Green’s offense being improved the last 5 games with Grant Loy at quarterback, and the RedHawks apply to an 88-23-2 ATS big home favorite momentum situation tonight. So, I like Miami-Ohio here and I also lean under, as the slower pace that Bowling Green has run their offense at in 5 games with Loy at quarterback (they run more with Loy, who leads the team in rushing) has not been factored into the total on this game.

Northern Ill @
Toledo

Wed, Nov 13 5:00 PM PT

Rotation: 307, Odds: Toledo -2.5, Total: 55

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TOLEDO (-2.5)  28  Northern Illinois  27

Still no word on Toledo’s star running back Bryant Koback (as of 3:15 pm Pacific) and the Rockets’ quarterback situation is a bit murky as well, although it looks like Eli Peters will start again. I’ll assume Koback plays and that Peters is at quarterback for Toledo and I’d lean slightly with Northern Illinois – but certainly not worth betting.

 

Buffalo @
Kent State

Thu, Nov 14 4:00 PM PT

Rotation: 311,

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I have not completed my analysis on this game. I start posting the Free Analysis on Thursday and usually have all analysis completed by early Saturday morning.

North Carolina @
Pittsburgh

Thu, Nov 14 5:00 PM PT

Rotation: 313,

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I have not completed my analysis on this game. I start posting the Free Analysis on Thursday and usually have all analysis completed by early Saturday morning.

Louisiana Tech @
Marshall

Fri, Nov 15 4:00 PM PT

Rotation: 315,

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I have not completed my analysis on this game. I start posting the Free Analysis on Thursday and usually have all analysis completed by early Saturday morning.

Fresno St. @
San Diego St.

Fri, Nov 15 6:30 PM PT

Rotation: 317,

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I have not completed my analysis on this game. I start posting the Free Analysis on Thursday and usually have all analysis completed by early Saturday morning.

West Virginia @
Kansas St.

Sat, Nov 16 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 319,

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I have not completed my analysis on this game. I start posting the Free Analysis on Thursday and usually have all analysis completed by early Saturday morning.

Virginia Tech @
Georgia Tech

Sat, Nov 16 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 321,

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I have not completed my analysis on this game. I start posting the Free Analysis on Thursday and usually have all analysis completed by early Saturday morning.