My Week 11 Free Analysis sides were 10-11 ATS and 3-3 on differences form the line of 4 points or more. The totals were 10-12 (1-0 on differences or 6 points or more, which are historically profitable). For the season, the Free Analysis sides are just 87-100-1 (26-27 on differences of 4 points or more) while totals are 91-102-4 (12-9 on differences from the line of 6 points or more).

 

The Free Analysis hasn’t been as good as it usually is so far this season but the Best Bets and Strong Opinions are winning and I expect the results of the Free Analysis to turn around given the long term record of profitability.

 

Last season, the Free Analysis sides were 288-262-10, and 81-70-5 on games with a difference or 4+ points from the spread. Totals were just 289-298-9 but a profitable 39-28 on differences of 6 points or more (28-11 the final 9 weeks).

 

The record on all Free Analysis sides is now 2002-1790-73 ATS since 2013, which is very good picking nearly every game over 7-plus years. The Free Analysis sides in which my predicted margin was 4 points or more away from the line are a profitable 676-570-27. Totals on the Free pages are now 1732-1698-30 in the 6-plus seasons I’ve been tracking them.

 

The spreads posted are the consensus lines at the time I posted each analysis.

With College Basketball starting this week I won’t have time to do writeups on the Free Analysis games. Just as much work was put into adjusting the math model to get the projected scores.

College Football Rotation

Colorado St. @
Air Force

Thu, Nov 26 11:00 AM PT

Rotation: 127, Odds: Air Force PK, Total:

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This game has been cancelled.

New Mexico @
Utah St.

Thu, Nov 26 4:00 PM PT

Rotation: 129, Odds: Utah St. +6, Total: 49

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New Mexico (-6)  29   UTAH STATE  22

I probably would have played New Mexico here if starting quarterback Tevaka Tuioti were back from his concussion, as backup Trae Hall is a full yard per pass play worse than Tuioti on a compensated YPPP basis (4.8 yppp on 86 pass play against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB) ad his running (5.6 yards per run on 43 career runs) isn’t nearly as impactful as Tuioti’s 164 yards on 16 runs so far this season.

However, Utah State’s horrible offense (4.1 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average FBS offense) could get worse with starting quarterback Jason Shelley kicked off the team. New QB Andre Peasley hasn’t proven he can throw the ball (just 53 yards on 26 career pass plays) and the Aggies’ only decent receiver, Deven Thompkins, has decided to transfer. Thompkins caught 20 of 30 passes thrown to him for an average of 7.1 yards per target, which is really good considering how bad the quarterbacking has been. The rest of the Utah State wide receivers have combined for just 3.2 yards per target, so I don’t expect much from the Aggies’ aerial attack, even against a horrible New Mexico pass defense that’s allowed 317 pass yards per game at 9.0 yards per pass play. Peasley could make an impact with his legs, however, as he’s run for his 183 yards on 13 career runs. That’s a small sample but indicative that he can move the chains with his running.

I project a 7 point win for the Lobos given the updated personnel for each team.

UCF @
South Florida

Fri, Nov 27 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 131, Odds: South Florida +25, Total: 67

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Central Florida (-25)  49   SOUTH FLORIDA  22

(2) Notre Dame @
(25) North Carolina

Fri, Nov 27 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 135, Odds: North Carolina +6, Total: 68.5

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Notre Dame (-6)  35   NORTH CAROLINA  32

My math model favors Notre Dame by 6.2 points but North Carolina applies to a 56-13-3 ATS high-scoring home dog situation.

Stanford @
California

Fri, Nov 27 1:00 PM PT

Rotation: 137, Odds: California +2, Total: 52

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Stanford (-2)  25   CALIFORNIA  23

(9) Oregon @
Oregon St.

Fri, Nov 27 4:30 PM PT

Rotation: 139, Odds: Oregon St. +13, Total: 64

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Oregon (-13)  40   OREGON STATE  27

(15) Iowa St. @
(20) Texas

Fri, Nov 27 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 143, Odds: Texas -1, Total: 56.5

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TEXAS (-1)  28   Iowa State  26

Nebraska @
Iowa

Fri, Nov 27 10:00 AM PT

Rotation: 147, Odds: Iowa -13.5, Total: 53.5

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IOWA (-13.5)  35   Nebraska  20

Wyoming @
UNLV

Fri, Nov 27 1:00 PM PT

Rotation: 151, Odds: UNLV +16.5, Total: 52

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This game is part of Dr. Bob Best Bets package. Purchase this week's College Football Best Bets now for just $75.

Southern Miss @
UAB

Fri, Nov 27 9:30 AM PT

Rotation: 153,

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I have not completed my analysis on this game. I start posting the Free Analysis on Thursday and usually have all analysis completed by early Saturday morning.