The Free Analysis page Leans were 6-5 in Week 13 (1-5 on Friday and 5-0 on Saturday) and are now 80-66-2 for the season after going 169-116-4 last 2 seasons. The sides with a 4 points or more differential from the line (i.e. the Leans) were 4-5 and the totals Leans were 2-0 (I counted the Temple Team Total Over Loss as a side since the total difference in my total prediction from the line was 9 points and the game did go over) and are 24-17 this season after going 29-8-1 last season.


The record of all Free Analysis sides was 16-32-1 ATS in week 13 and the totals were 36-16.


The record on all Free Analysis sides is now 2879-2690-100 ATS since 2013, which is very good picking nearly every game over 10-plus years. The Free Analysis sides in which my predicted margin was 4 points or more away from the line (i.e Leans) are a profitable 884-743-32. Totals on the Free pages are now 2673-2537-55 in the 9-plus seasons I’ve been tracking them. Starting in 2022 I choose selected Leans on totals and those are now 53-25-1.


The spreads posted are the consensus lines at the time I posted each analysis.

College Football Rotation

Army vs

Sat, Dec 9 12:00 PM PT

Rotation: 103, Odds: Navy +3, Total: 27.5

Game Analysis view matchup stats

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Army (-3)  14   Navy  12

Teams that run the option are usually best at defending the option because they see it every day in practice. That has resulted in games between Air Force, Navy, and Army being 53-16-3 Under. That trend gets bet every time and the oddsmakers set the total lower than they normally would and it still goes down (the total on this game went from 31.5 down to 27.5 points).

Last season all 3 games between the military schools was under in regulation despite the market betting the total down (Army-Navy was 10-10 before OT led to the game going over) and both such games have gone under this season with Navy vs Air Force having just 23 total points and Army vs Air Force totaling 26 points. You’re paying a premium now to follow that trend but I certainly don’t want to go against it and in this case I think the total should be 26.5 points, which is based on the difference between years of results of games between the 3 military academies and the math model predictions of what the total would normally be if the well-known trend wasn’t dragging the total down.