The Week 12 Free Analysis sides were 25-21 ATS and 3-5 on differences form the line of 4 points or more, which are historically profitable and are now tagged as Leans. The totals were 23-20. For the season, the Free Analysis sides are just 246-224-6 (and a very profitable 71-51-2 on differences of 4 points or more) while totals are 233-248-2.

 

The record on all Free Analysis sides is now 2310-2080-79 ATS since 2013, which is very good picking nearly every game over 8-plus years. The Free Analysis sides in which my predicted margin was 4 points or more away from the line are a profitable 758-637-29. Totals on the Free pages are now 2040-2005-33 in the 7-plus seasons I’ve been tracking them and the bigger differences of 6 points or more are no longer profitable long term.

 

The spreads posted are the consensus lines at the time I posted each analysis.

College Football Rotation

Buffalo @
Ball St.

Tue, Nov 23 4:00 PM PT

Rotation: 101, Odds: Ball St. -6, Total: 59.5

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Lean – BALL STATE (-6)  34   Buffalo  24

Western Mich @
Northern Ill

Tue, Nov 23 4:00 PM PT

Rotation: 103, Odds: Northern Ill +7, Total: 59

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Western Michigan (-7)  33   NORTHERN ILLINOIS  26

NIU QB Rocky Lombardi, a former starter at Michigan State, is out tonight. The line has adjusted and I have no opinion on this game.

Mississippi @
Mississippi St.

Thu, Nov 25 4:30 PM PT

Rotation: 111, Odds: Mississippi St. -2.5, Total: 64.5

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MISSISSIPPI STATE (-2.5)  33   Mississippi  30

Fresno St. @
San Jose St.

Thu, Nov 25 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 113, Odds: San Jose St. +7, Total: 52.5

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Fresno State (-7)  29   SAN JOSE STATE  23

Ohio @
Bowling Green

Fri, Nov 26 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 115, Odds: Bowling Green +6, Total: 48.5

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Lean – BOWLING GREEN (+6)  23   Ohio  25

Eastern Mich @
Central Mich

Fri, Nov 26 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 117, Odds: Central Mich -8.5, Total: 63.5

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CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-8.5)  38   Eastern Michigan  26

Boise St. @
San Diego St.

Fri, Nov 26 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 119, Odds: San Diego St. +3, Total: 44.5

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Boise State (-3)  24   SAN DIEGO STATE  20

Kansas St. @
Texas

Fri, Nov 26 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 121, Odds: Texas -2.5, Total: 53.5

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TEXAS (-2.5)  30   Kansas State  26

Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson is unlikely to play and Casey Thompson has been upgraded to probable for Texas and will be looking to bounce back from his worst game. Thompson should be fine against a Kansas State defense that’s allowed 68% completions this season and I expect big play receiver  Jordan Whittingham to be more involved in his second game back from injury after just 1 target last week (he’s still #2 on the team in receiving yards despite missing 4 games and having just one pass thrown to him last week).

Utah St. @
New Mexico

Fri, Nov 26 10:00 AM PT

Rotation: 123, Odds: New Mexico +16.5, Total: 48.5

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Utah State (-16.5)  32   NEW MEXICO  16

New Mexico doesn’t have a healthy quarterback that can throw the football, as the Lobos have averaged just 1.5 yards per pass play the last 5 games without starting quarterback Terry Wilson, who is still not listed on the depth chart. However, New Mexico’s heavy dose of running should work well enough against Utah State’s horrible run defense to keep this from getting too out of hand.  However, there isn’t any real value.

Iowa @
Nebraska

Fri, Nov 26 10:30 AM PT

Rotation: 125, Odds: Nebraska -1, Total: 41

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Lean – Iowa (+1)  21   NEBRASKA  18

Nebraska is 3-8 and Iowa is 9-2 yet the Cornhuskers have clearly been the better team from the line of scrimmage this season. However, Nebraska will be without their star quarterback Adrian Martinez and the Huskers continue to find ways to lose games. Part of the reason is bad special teams, which has cost them 3.6 points per game this season. Iowa, meanwhile, has the nation’s best specials teams and field position matters in what should be a low scoring game. I think the adjustment for Martinez should be more than the market has adjusted (line went from 3.5 to 1), as I value him as worth 4.7 points (3.1 for passing and 1.6 for his running).

Nebraska is also without their best defensive player, LB JoJo Domann and the Huskers allowed 8.3 yards per play last week to Wisconsin in the first game that he missed. I value Domann’s absence as worth 1.3 points, which I don’t believe is in this line, as I would have favored Nebraska by 2.1 points with Martinez playing, which would be 3.4 points (right on market) if I didn’t adjust for Domann’s absence. I favor Iowa by 2.6 points in this game with the Cornhuskers’ most important offense and defensive players out.

UTEP @
UAB

Fri, Nov 26 11:00 AM PT

Rotation: 127, Odds: UAB -13.5, Total: 50

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UAB (-13.5)  30   Texas-El Paso  16

North Carolina @
No Carolina St.

Fri, Nov 26 4:00 PM PT

Rotation: 129, Odds: No Carolina St. -5.5, Total: 62

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1-Star Best Bet – *NC STATE (-5.5)  35   North Carolina  22

North Carolina has a very good offense (6.7 yards per play against FBS teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average attack) but the Tarheels are a bit worse than average on a national scale defensively and that offensive advantage that they have over most teams is mitigated by a very good NC State defense. The Wolfpack have yielded just 18.7 points per game and have been 0.9 yppl better than average defensively (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) and that unit has been better recently since making some changes to their starting lineup. Freshman LB Devon Betty was inserted into the starting lineup 3 games ago and has 4 tackles for loss in those 3 games and he now has 7.5 TFL in the last 6 gamers after barely playing in the first 5 games. Betty replaced Jaylon Scott, who has just 3 TFL the entire season and fewer tackles than Betty despite playing a lot more snaps. NC State has yielded just 4.3 yppl in the last 3 games against Florida State, Wake Forest, and Syracuse, who would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team. I only made a slight adjustment for the improvement shown defensively since Better was inserted into the lineup and I think NC State’s defense is probably better than how I currently rate that unit. The UNC offense against the NC State defense is close to a wash and I project the Tarheels with 352 yards at 5.4 yppl in this game.

NC State’s advantage is when they have the ball, as the Wolfpack offense (33 ppg and 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) is better than a North Carolina defense that’s allowing 33 points per game and 6.1 yppl to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. The math model projects 434 yards at 6.5 yppl for NC State in this game and the Wolfpack have an edge in special teams.

North Carolina has lost all 4 of their road games by 7 points or more, including losses to teams that are not close to as good as the NC State that they visit today (lost 10-17 at Virginia Tech and 22-45 at Georgia Tech). NC State is a 1-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less (Strong Opinion at -6.5).

Missouri @
Arkansas

Fri, Nov 26 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 131, Odds: Arkansas -14.5, Total: 62.5

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Lean – Missouri (+14.5)  29   ARKANSAS  39

Arkansas has really missed All-SEC safety Jalen Catalon, as the Razorbacks allowed just 11.1 yards per completion in 6 games with Catalon but have been much more susceptible to the deep pass in 5 games without him (13.5 ypc allowed). The Arkansas pass defense has gone from a strength to a weakness and Connor Bazelak is good enough to take advantage and keep this game relatively close despite his team’s bad defense.

South Florida @
UCF

Fri, Nov 26 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 133, Odds: UCF -18.5, Total: 62

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UCF (-17.5)  36  South Florida  22 

It appears as if UCF star QB Dillon Gabriel, who has missed the last 8 games, will likely sit out this week too despite practicing the last two weeks. He warmed up before last week’s game against U Conn but ultimately didn’t dress for the game and is not listed on the depth chart. It’s still possible that Gabriel could play but it looks like it’s going to be Mikey Keene, who has 1.4 yards per pass play worse than an average quarterback. UCF will likely focus on their ground game, which should work great against a bad USF run defense that’s allowed 6.1 yards per rushing play. I’ll still lean a bit with USF given how bad Keene has been.

Coastal Carolina @
South Alabama

Fri, Nov 26 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 135, Odds: South Alabama +15, Total: 55.5

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Coastal Carolina (-15)  35   SOUTH ALABAMA  21

UNLV @
Air Force

Fri, Nov 26 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 137, Odds: Air Force -17.5, Total: 50.5

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Lean – Nevada-Las Vegas (+18/+17.5) 17   AIR FORCE  30

An Air Force offense that runs the ball 86% of the time plays into the strength of the UNLV defense, as the Rebels defend the run well (4.6 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yprp against an average defense). An option offense does not take full advantage of a horrible UNLV pass defense that’s 1.4 yppp worse than average. The matchup makes the UNLV defense 1.2 yppl better than it would be against a balanced attack. That’s a significant amount of value that is not in the line.

TCU @
Iowa St.

Fri, Nov 26 1:30 PM PT

Rotation: 139, Odds: Iowa St. -15, Total: 60.5

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IOWA STATE (-15)  38   Texas Christian  23

This is a letdown spot for Iowa State after last week’s emotionally crushing close loss to Oklahoma, but TCU’s running back are all questionable or out. I’ll pass.

Washington St. @
Washington

Fri, Nov 26 5:00 PM PT

Rotation: 141, Odds: Washington +1, Total: 44.5

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WASHINGTON (+1)  22  Washington State  21

Colorado @
Utah

Fri, Nov 26 1:00 PM PT

Rotation: 143, Odds: Utah -24, Total: 52

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UTAH (-24)  39   Colorado  15

Cincinnati @
East Carolina

Fri, Nov 26 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 155, Odds: East Carolina +14, Total: 57

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Cincinnati (-14)  34   EAST CAROLINA  22

Ohio St. @
Michigan

Sat, Nov 27 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 145, Odds: Michigan +7.5, Total: 65

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Lean – MICHIGAN (+7/+7.5)  27   Ohio State  30

My math model favors Ohio State by 6 points but Michigan applies to a 130-52-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation.

Army @
Liberty

Sat, Nov 27 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 147, Odds: Liberty -3.5, Total: 52.5

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LIBERTY (-3.5)  24   Army  21

The pace of play is going to be very slow and I think the under is the way to go if you’re playing this game.

Vanderbilt @
Tennessee

Sat, Nov 27 12:45 PM PT

Rotation: 149, Odds: Tennessee -31.5, Total: 64

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TENNESSEE (-31.5)  47   Vanderbilt  12

Miami Fla @
Duke

Sat, Nov 27 9:30 AM PT

Rotation: 151, Odds: Duke +21, Total: 67

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Miami-Florida (-21)  42   DUKE  22

Troy @
Georgia St.

Sat, Nov 27 11:00 AM PT

Rotation: 153, Odds: Georgia St. -6.5, Total: 50

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GEORGIA STATE (-6.5)  27   Troy  21

Pittsburgh @
Syracuse

Sat, Nov 27 4:30 PM PT

Rotation: 157, Odds: Syracuse +13.5, Total: 58

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Pittsburgh (-13.5/-13)  34   SYRACUSE  24

Navy @
Temple

Sat, Nov 27 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 159, Odds: Temple +13, Total: 42.5

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Navy (-13)  24   TEMPLE  14

Wake Forest @
Boston College

Sat, Nov 27 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 161, Odds: Boston College +5, Total: 64

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Wake Forest (-5)  34   BOSTON COLLEGE  29

West Virginia @
Kansas

Sat, Nov 27 4:00 PM PT

Rotation: 163, Odds: Kansas +15.5, Total: 55.5

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West Virginia (-15.5)  33   KANSAS  19

Kentucky @
Louisville

Sat, Nov 27 4:30 PM PT

Rotation: 165, Odds: Louisville -3, Total: 57.5

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2-Star Best Bet – **LOUISVILLE (-2.5)  34   Kentucky  24

Louisville’s pass offense has predictably been better without WR Braden Smith, who quit the team after gaining just 68 yards on 20 targets in the first 4 games of the season. The rest of the Cardinals’ receivers are averaging over 10 yards per target and Louisville’s pass offense has been 2.4 yards per pass play better than average in 6 games without Smith (8.8 yppp against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average team). Louisville also has a strong rushing attack with QB Malik Cunningham leading the way and the Cardinals should move the ball pretty easily against an overrated Kentucky defense that’s been just 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average FBS defense).

Louisville’s defense is actually a bit better than Kentucky’s defense (the Cardinals’ stop unit is 0.3 yppl better than average) and Kentucky’s offense, while good, is not as good as Louisville’s attack. My math model favors Louisville by 9 points and the Cardinal apply to a 48-4 ATS subset of a 135-48-4 ATS home momentum situation.

Louisville is a 2-Star Best Bet at -2.5 or less and 1-Star at -3 up to -115 odds.

Houston @
Connecticut

Sat, Nov 27 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 167, Odds: Connecticut +32.5, Total: 54.5

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Houston (-32.5)  42   CONNECTICUT  13

Maryland @
Rutgers

Sat, Nov 27 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 169, Odds: Rutgers +1.5, Total: 53

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Lean – Maryland (-1.5)  30  RUTGERS  24

Maryland is a better team than Rutgers and all of the Terrapins’ losses have been against good teams (Iowa, Ohio State, Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan)

Georgia @
Georgia Tech

Sat, Nov 27 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 171, Odds: Georgia Tech +35.5, Total: 54.5

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Georgia (-35.5)  44   GEORGIA TECH  6 (Yates at QB for Georgia Tech)

Jordan Yates is starting at quarterback for Georgia Tech and he’s 2.4 yards per pass play worse than Jeff Sims and was the main reason that the Yellow Jackets were shutout last week by Notre Dame. Georgia Tech probably won’t score more than 3 points against Georgia’s starters.

 

Indiana @
Purdue

Sat, Nov 27 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 173, Odds: Purdue -15, Total: 50.5

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Lean – PURDUE (-17)  35   Indiana  14

Indiana QB Michael Penix is still out and the backups have combined to be 2.1 yards per pass play worse than average (3.9 yppp on 201 pass plays against opposing starting defenses that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB).

Virginia Tech @
Virginia

Sat, Nov 27 12:45 PM PT

Rotation: 175, Odds: Virginia -7, Total: 63.5

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VIRGINIA (-7)  34   Virginia Tech  28

Brennan Armstrong returned last week but he didn’t run the ball in order to protect his injury (4 yards on 3 runs). Not having Armstrong’s running (434 yards at 7.8 yards per run before the injury) tilts the scales towards Virginia Tech, although I’d pass this game.

Northwestern @
Illinois

Sat, Nov 27 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 177, Odds: Illinois -6.5, Total: 44.5

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ILLINOIS (-6.5)  26   Northwestern  18

Akron @
Toledo

Sat, Nov 27 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 179, Odds: Toledo -28.5, Total: 57.5

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TOLEDO (-28.5)  43   Akron  15

Texas Tech @
Baylor

Sat, Nov 27 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 181, Odds: Baylor -14, Total: 51.5

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Lean – Texas Tech (+14)  20   BAYLOR  30

The math model favors Baylor by 13 points if Bohanon is able to play (his backup played well last week so there may not be a drop off if Bohanon can’t play) and I’ll lean with Texas Tech on the basis of a 28-97-2 ATS big home favorite letdown situation that applies to a Baylor team coming off two upset wins.

Wisconsin @
Minnesota

Sat, Nov 27 1:00 PM PT

Rotation: 183, Odds: Minnesota +7, Total: 39

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Wisconsin (-7)  23   MINNESOTA  14

Miami Ohio @
Kent State

Sat, Nov 27 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 185, Odds: Kent State +1, Total: 65.5

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Miami-Ohio (-1)  36   KENT STATE  32

Louisiana Tech @
Rice

Sat, Nov 27 10:00 AM PT

Rotation: 187, Odds: Rice +4, Total: 53

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Louisiana Tech (-4)  29   RICE  22 (with Constantin at QB for Rice)

Check back closer to game time, as it’s possible that Constantin doesn’t start for Rice. The Owls’ best receiver is also questionable. But, I’d lean with Louisiana Tech even if both play.

UTSA @
North Texas

Sat, Nov 27 11:00 AM PT

Rotation: 189, Odds: North Texas +10, Total: 59.5

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Lean – NORTH TEXAS (+10)  26   Texas-San Antonio  32

North Texas is playing their best football of the season and the Mean Green apply to a 107-39-3 ATS home underdog momentum situation. UTSA, meanwhile, applies to a 13-48-2 ATS unbeaten road favorite angle. The math model also leans with North Texas (UTSA by 8), so I’ll lean with the double-digit home dog.

Arizona @
Arizona St.

Sat, Nov 27 1:00 PM PT

Rotation: 191, Odds: Arizona St. -20, Total: 53

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Lean – ARIZONA STATE (-20)  38   Arizona  14

The math favors Arizona State by 22 points and the Sun Devils apply to a 72-16-1 ATS big home favorite situation.

Charlotte @
Old Dominion

Sat, Nov 27 11:00 AM PT

Rotation: 193, Odds: Old Dominion -9.5, Total: 55.5

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Lean – OLD DOMINION (-9.5)  35   Charlotte  21

I’ve been on Old Dominion a few times since they switched quarterbacks from the horrible D.J. Mack Jr. (3.6 yards per pass play) to Hayden Wolff, who has averaged 6.6 yppp in his 5 starts (against teams that would allow 7.3 yppp). Wolff is coming off his best game (9.6 yppp) against a better than average Middle Tennessee State pass defense and now faces the second worst pass defense in the nation. Charlotte has allowed 8.6 yppp to a slate of opposing quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.8 yppp against an average FBS defense.

ODU also has an underrated defense that’s yielded just 5.6 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. Charlotte is 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively with QB Chris Reynolds in the game and I don’t expect the 49ers will be able to stay within 10 points of what their defense gives up.

Massachusetts @
New Mexico St.

Sat, Nov 27 12:00 PM PT

Rotation: 195, Odds: New Mexico St. -6.5, Total: 59

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NEW MEXICO STATE (-6.5)  33   Massachusetts  26

Georgia Southern @
Appalachian State

Sat, Nov 27 11:30 AM PT

Rotation: 197, Odds: Appalachian State -24.5, Total: 55

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APPALACHIAN STATE (-24.5)  42   Georgia Southern  14

BYU @
USC

Sat, Nov 27 7:30 PM PT

Rotation: 199, Odds: USC +7, Total: 64

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Brigham Young (-7)  39   USC  29

California @
UCLA

Sat, Nov 27 7:30 PM PT

Rotation: 201, Odds: UCLA -6.5, Total: 58

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Strong Opinion – California (+7)  29   UCLA  30

I don’t know who to root for. Cal is a Strong Opinion in this game and I went to college in Berkeley and am a faithful Golden Bear supporter. However, a UCLA win would get them to 8-4 and cash my season win total over 7 Best Bet. From a gambling perspective I obviously would like UCLA to win by less than 7 points. But, Cal needs this game to keep their bowl hopes alive and I wouldn’t mind going to a bowl game as a fan.

From a handicapping perspective, I think Cal is a better team than UCLA right now. The Bears offense with Chase Garbers at quarterback (i.e. excluding that Arizona debacle when 20 players were out) has averaged 6.7 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and the Bears rate at 0.9 yppl better than average offensively even after adjusting for last week’s outlier (10.3 yppl against Stanford). That’s basically the same as UCLA’s +1.0 yppl offensive rating with Thompson-Robinson in the game.

The difference in these teams is defensively, as Cal’s defense has been 0.5 yppl better than average this season while the Bruins have been just average on the stop side of the ball. The only reason this is not a Best Bet is because of a 102-36-1 ATS home momentum situation that applies to the UCLA. Cal is a Strong Opinion at +7 or more (-115 odds or better).

Oregon St. @
Oregon

Sat, Nov 27 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 203, Odds: Oregon -7, Total: 60.5

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OREGON (-7)  33   Oregon State  26

FIU @
Southern Miss

Sat, Nov 27 12:00 PM PT

Rotation: 205, Odds: Southern Miss -13, Total: 46

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SOUTHERN MISS (-13)  28   Florida International  18

The Southern MIss Wildcat offense worked great against better teams as an underdog the last two weeks but shortening the game and not taking advantage of one of the worst pass defenses in the nation (FIU) is not ideal for a double-digit favorite.

Notre Dame @
Stanford

Sat, Nov 27 5:00 PM PT

Rotation: 207, Odds: Stanford +20.5, Total: 53

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2-Star Best Bet – **Stanford (+20.5)  24   NOTRE DAME  35

Stanford is 0-6 straight up and 0-6 ATS since upsetting Oregon and Notre Dame is 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS since losing Cincinnati. However, the line on this game has really gotten out of hand, especially given that the Irish have been very lucky in regard to the quarterbacks that they’ve faced this season while Stanford played two recent games with inept quarterbacks while young star Tanner McKee was sidelined.

Notre Dame has faced 4 teams that were playing their worst quarterback, as they faced Toledo before they switched to Finn as their starter, faced Purdue when Plummer was starting instead of O’Connell (Plummer had 38 pass plays to O’Connnell’s 18 in that game), faced Virginia two weeks ago without Brennan Armstrong, who was leading the nation in total yards from scrimmage, and were lucky to face Georgia Tech last week with Yates at quarterback instead of Simms (Yates is 2.4 yppp worse). The adjustments made for quarterbacks faced is significant, as overall they’ve faced quarterbacks that are 0.7 yppp worse than if they had faced each team’s starting quarterback, which works out to 2.5 points in quarterback luck. Note Dame also faced Wisconsin early in the season before the Badgers rushing attack started thriving with Allen as the main runner.

Stanford, meanwhile, has an overall offensive rating of -0.1 yards per play (5.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) but the Cardinal averaged just 10.5 points on 205 total yards at 4.0 yppl in weeks 10 and 11 without Mckee. The Stanford offense played poorly last week in the Big Game against a solid Cal defense in McKee’s return to the lineup but for the season the Cardinal attack is 0.3 yppl better with McKee in the game, which equates to a couple of points. Notre Dame’s defense rates at just 0.4 yppl better tan average after accounting for the quarterbacks they’ve faced (and adjusting for facing Wisky early in the season when their run game was terrible). Stanford’s offense is not that much worse than the Notre Dame defense, which has been even worse without All-American S Kyle Hamilton (after adjusting for opposing QB’s faced). Notre Dame’s defense rated at worse than average against both USC and North Carolina (relative to how good those offense are) in the two games without Hamilton against competent offensive teams – the other games were vs Navy (1.2 yppl worse than average offense), Virginia without Armstrong and Georgia Tech with Yates at QB. I made a 0.2 yppl adjustment for Hamilton being out and Stanford is projected to gain a decent 357 yards at 5.8 yppl even with two of their receivers likely out (Tremayne, who has missed most of the season, and Humphreys), although Michael Wilson, considered their best receiver coming into the season, has played the last few games after missing the first 8 games.

Stanford’s defense was abused last week by Cal for 10.3 yards per play but even with that outlier the Cardinal stop unit is only 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season. Notre Dame’s offense has been 0.6 yppl better than average and should move the ball well in this game (I project 444 yards at 6.4 yppl). Notre Dame should score a good number of points but their overrated defense is likely to give Stanford enough scoring opportunities to keep this game relatively competitive.

You might think that Stanford may have thrown in the towel on their season given their long losing streak and no hope for a bowl game but teams playing their final game of the season that are on a losing streak, have lost 3 or more consecutive games to the spread, and are facing a team that is on a winning streak are 52-26-1 ATS, including 17-6 ATS for a team on a 5 games or more losing streak. So, there is certainly no historical evidence that Stanford is likely to lay down here. Stanford is a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 or more and a 1-Star down to +18.

Hawaii @
Wyoming

Sat, Nov 27 12:00 PM PT

Rotation: 209, Odds: Wyoming -11, Total: 48.5

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WYOMING (-11)  34   Hawaii  20

Oklahoma @
Oklahoma St.

Sat, Nov 27 4:30 PM PT

Rotation: 211, Odds: Oklahoma St. -4.5, Total: 49.5

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1-Star Best Bet – *OKLAHOMA STATE (-3.5)  30   Oklahoma  19

Rotation #212 – 4:30 pm Pacific

Oklahoma’s offense is better with dual-threat QB Caleb Williams behind center, as the Sooners have been 1.7 yards per play better than average with Williams in the game (relative to the defenses he’s faced and weighted by the plays against each defense), which is much better than the +0.6 yppl rating with Rattler at QB.

However, Oklahoma State has the nation’s second-best defense, as that unit has yielded just 14.8 points per game on 253 yards at 4.3 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defensive team. The Oklahoma State defense is better than the Oklahoma offense with Williams and the Sooners have averaged just 21 points the last two weeks against Baylor and Iowa State defenses that are good but are 1.2 yppl worse than the Oklahoma State defense.

Oklahoma State is nothing special on offense, as they rate at just 0.2 yppl better than average, but the Oklahoma defense is only 0.3 yppl better than average and Cowboys should score a decent number of points.

The yards per play projections for this game aren’t that significantly in favor of Oklahoma State (5.6 yppl to 5.0 yppl) but the Sooners’ boom or bust offense tends to have them running significantly fewer plays than their opponents (-4.6 in play differential) while Oklahoma State’s methodical offense and 3-and-out type of defense has the Cowboys averaging a +14.4 play differential. I project Oklahoma State to have 444 total yards to just 279 for Oklahoma in this game and the Cowboys also apply to a 75-17-2 ATS home favorite momentum situation. Oklahoma State is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and a Strong Opinion up to -5 points.

Tulsa @
SMU

Sat, Nov 27 1:00 PM PT

Rotation: 213, Odds: SMU -6.5, Total: 62.5

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SMU (-6.5)  34   Tulsa  28

Alabama @
Auburn

Sat, Nov 27 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 215, Odds: Auburn +20.5, Total: 57

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Alabama (-20.5)  37   AUBURN  19

Finley is a big downgrade at quarterback from Bo Nix, who was having his best season and protects the ball well. However, even after the adjustment of 5.3 points the math model still leans a bit with Auburn.

Tulane @
Memphis

Sat, Nov 27 4:30 PM PT

Rotation: 217, Odds: Memphis -6, Total: 58

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MEMPHIS (-6)  32   Tulane  26

Clemson @
South Carolina

Sat, Nov 27 4:30 PM PT

Rotation: 219, Odds: South Carolina +11.5, Total: 43

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1-Star Best Bet – *Clemson Team Total Under (27.5 -110)

Alternate play is game Under (43)

Clemson (-11.5)  21   SOUTH CAROLINA  14

I’ve lost my last few plays on the Clemson team total under, but the Tigers have only played one better than average offensive game all season relative to the game site and level of defense they faced (last week against Wake Forest) and they are legitimately just 2-9 on their team totals (the final play defensive TD against Florida State was a fluke) while averaging just 23.0 points per game in regulation against FBS teams that are collectively just 0.2 yppl better than average defensively. South Carolina is 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense) and the Gamecocks’ defense has allowed more than 20 points only 4 times in 11 games and all of those were against better than average offensive teams Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Missouri – and Missouri only scored 24 on the Gamecocks’ defense (they added a defensive TD).

Clemson’s offense has averaged only 5.1 yppl this season against FBS teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average offense and it’s ridiculous that the market thinks they’re likely to score at the national average of 27 points against a team with a defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average and runs their offense at a slow pace.

The weather conditions (1 mph wind and no rain) add 1.3 points to Clemson’s scoring projection, but I still get just 20.7 points for the Tigers based on the projected box score with weather adjustment and a model based purely on points projects the same. The Clemson Team Total is a 1-Star Best Bet at 27 points or higher. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is the game under 43.

Western Kentucky @
Marshall

Sat, Nov 27 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 221, Odds: Marshall -1.5, Total: 73.5

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Lean – MARSHALL (+1)  38   Western Kentucky  34

Note: The line moved from -1.5 to +1 and Marshall is now a lean.

Marshall has the best pass defense of any team that Western Kentucky’s pass-heavy attack has faced all season and the Thundering Herd should win this game if Grant Wells can limit his interceptions to 1 or fewer (he’s thrown 12 this season and is projected at 1.45 picks for this game).

Penn St. @
Michigan St.

Sat, Nov 27 12:30 PM PT

Rotation: 223, Odds: Michigan St. +3.5, Total: 51.5

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Updated prediction 

Lean – Penn State (-5)  32   MICHIGAN STATE  22

Previous prediction – Penn State (-4)  30   MICHIGAN STATE  23

Update – QB Thorne and RB Walker are both going to play. But, some MSU players will not play due to the flu. The number of starters out was way overblown (it looks like just 1).

Florida St. @
Florida

Sat, Nov 27 9:00 AM PT

Rotation: 225, Odds: Florida -3, Total: 58.5

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FLORIDA (-3)  31   Florida State  27

The Wildcard in this game is Florida freshman quarterback Anthony Richardson in his first start. Richardson isn’t as accurate as injured starter Emory Jones but his running ability is next level great. I’d favor Florida by 5.5 points with Jones and the Gators could be just as good or better with Richardson. Florida’s emotional state is also in question but I think I’d rather have the Gators here – although I wouldn’t recommend a bet.

Texas A&M @
LSU

Sat, Nov 27 4:00 PM PT

Rotation: 227, Odds: LSU +6, Total: 46.5

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Texas A&M (-6)  24   LSU  17

UL Monroe @
UL Lafayette

Sat, Nov 27 1:00 PM PT

Rotation: 229, Odds: UL Lafayette -21.5, Total: 55.5

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Lean – LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-21.5)  40   UL Monroe  13

Texas State @
Arkansas St.

Sat, Nov 27 11:00 AM PT

Rotation: 231, Odds: Arkansas St. -2, Total: 62.5

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ARKANSAS STATE (-2)  32   Texas State  30

Middle Tenn St @
Florida Atl.

Sat, Nov 27 4:00 PM PT

Rotation: 233, Odds: Florida Atl. -4, Total: 50

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FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-4)  25   Middle Tennessee State  21

Nevada @
Colorado St.

Sat, Nov 27 6:00 PM PT

Rotation: 235, Odds: Colorado St. +3.5, Total: 57.5

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Strong Opinion – COLORADO STATE (+3.5)  33   Nevada  31

Colorado State is just 3-8 but the Rams have outgained their opponents 416 yards at 5.6 yards per play to 368 yards at 5.3 yppl and rate as average offensively and just 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively after adjusting for their schedule. Nevada is 7-4 but the Wolf Pack aren’t any better than CSU from the line of scrimmage, as they’ve been 0.2 yppl better than average offensively and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively.

These teams are dead-even from the line of scrimmage and I project the Rams to outgain Nevada on their home field tonight. Nevada does have an advantage in special teams but there’s enough value here to make Colorado State a Strong Opinion at +3.5 points or more.