College Football Rotation

Game Analysis view matchup stats

BYU (-25.5)  40   Utah State  17

(Originally posted as BYU (-24.5) 40-19. Adjusted for Utah State QB Bonner being out).

My season win total bet on Utah State under 7 wins is looking good but for the first time all season my math shows value on the Aggies, who are 0-4 ATS and certainly unwanted by bettors. Utah State’s defense isn’t as bad as the 36 points per game allowed suggests, as they’ve yielded just 5.6 yards per play to a slate of opponents that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. That Aggies are also just 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively with their starting quarterback in the game and they outgained UNLV by 102 yards in last week’s 10-point loss to the Rebels (-6 in turnovers is why they lost).

Note: It appears as if Utah State’s starting quarterback Logan Bonner is out for the season with a broken foot. Bonner has been terrible so far with just 56% completions and 8 interceptions but there still could be some drop-off given that Legas hasn’t proven to be a good passer yet and Levi Williams (former Wyoming QB) is a good runner but an even more inconsistent passer.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Note: Tulane QB Michael Pratt is OUT tonight. I’ve adjusted my prediction to reflect that injury.

Lean – Under (53.5) – HOUSTON (-4.5)  25   Tulane  20

Originally posted as Lean – Under (55) – HOUSTON (-2.5)  25   Tulane  22

Both of these teams are better defensively than they are offensively and both teams run their offense at a slower than average pace. That combination should make it difficult to get to 55 total points, which is a bit above the national average for total points in regulation.

Tulane’s 3 games against FBS foes have averaged just 43.3 total points and the 68.5 total points per game that have been scored in Houston’s 4 games are buoyed by a total of 47 points being scored in their two overtime games. The Cougars’ games have averaged 56.8 points in regulation, which is relatively low given that their 4 opponents are collectively good on offense (0.7 yppl better than average) and bad on defense (0.4 yppl worse than average).

The projected scoring goes down a few points with Pratt out for Tulane and I expect the Green Wave to run the ball more, which will shorten the game.

Looks like solid value on the Under 52 or higher in this game with Pratt now out for Tulane.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Texas-San Antonio (-4.5)  31   MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE  30

Game Analysis view matchup stats

BOISE STATE (-6.5)  21   San Diego State  15

Boise State will likely get an upgrade at quarterback with 4-year starter Hank Bachmeier deciding to transfer this week. That decision was likely predicated by the new offensive coordinator dropping him to a backup role because of how horribly he was playing (4.6 yards per pass play). New quarterback Taylen Green got plenty of action against a good defense in week 1, completing 19 of 28 passes and averaging a respectable 5.0 yppp against a very good Oregon State pass defense. Green also ran for 111 yards on 10 runs, most of which came on a 74-yard scramble, so he adds a dimension that Bachmeier lacked. Boise State should be better offensively, as I expect Green to improve the pass attack by around 2 yards per pass play.

San Diego State’s offense has been even worse than the Boise offense so far, as the Aztecs have been 1.7 yards per play worse than average with an pass attack (if you can call it that) averaging a woeful 63 yards per game at 2.7 yppp. San Diego State can run the ball but Boise is better than average defending the run.

I’ll call this one right around the number but I wouldn’t be surprised if Boise’s offense is more improved than I project.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Washington (-3/-2.5)  33   UCLA  29

I am a believer in Washington and I used the Huskies as a Best Bet last week. U Dub has averaged 7.4 yards per play (with QB Penix in the game) while allowing just 4.6 yppl on defense (with the starters in) while facing a schedule of teams that is collectively only 0.5 yppl worse than average. UCLA hasn’t been nearly that good and my math favors Washington by 9 points using this year’s games only. However, UCLA applies to a 115-47-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

UNLV (-14)  29   New Mexico  15

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Illinois (+7)  21   WISCONSIN  24

Illinois looks like the real deal on defense, as the Illini have yielded an average of just 8 points per game and 4.0 yards per play against a decent slate of opposing offenses that combine to rate at just 0.5 yppl worse than average. Wisconsin’s offense exploded against two weak defensive teams, averaging 8.4 yppl against Illinois State and 8.9 yppl against New Mexico State (with starters in) but the Badgers managed just 14 points on 5.2 yppl against Washington State and only 14 points at 4.0 yppl against Ohio State before Braelon Allen busted a 75 yard run against the Buckeyes’ backups.

I’ll lean with Illinois at +7 points or more.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

PENN STATE (-25)  38   Northwestern  10

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

COASTAL CAROLINA (-9.5)  38   Georgia Southern  27

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

CLEMSON (-7)  25   North Carolina State  20

Clemson is improved offensively this season but their young secondary has allowed 65% completions and 6.6 yards per pass play despite facing quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.9 yppp against an average defense. NC State’s Devin Leary could take advantage of that but he needs to play better than he has been playing. Leary has averaged a decent 6.7 yppp but he’s faced 4 horrible pass defenses that would combine to allow 8.9 yppp to an average quarterback.

The NC State defense has been great, yielding just 11.8 points per game and 4.1 yppl (to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense), so they should slow down a Clemson attack that is only 0.6 yppl better than average.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Under (49) – PITTSBURGH (-22)  31   Georgia Tech  10

I’ll assume that Pitt WR Jared Wayne will play after missing last week (although he’s still listed as questionable) but the Panthers’ offense isn’t that much better than average even with Wayne and QB Slovis both in and Georgia Tech has been solid defensively. The Yellow Jackets have given up just 5.5 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense, so they should keep Pitt’s attack in check.

The Georgia Tech offense is terrible and has averaged only 6.7 points in 3 games against FBS teams (Clemson, Ole Miss, and UCF) and Pitt’s defense is just as good or better than those opponents. If Georgia Tech can avoid having a punt blocked for a TD then this game should go under (they’ve had 4 punts blocked, including 2 for TDs vs Clemson).

Game Analysis view matchup stats

MARYLAND (-7.5)  34   Michigan State  24

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Over (52.5) – DUKE (-2.5)  30   Virginia  29

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Virginia Tech (+9)  27   NORTH CAROLINA  31

Virginia Tech has offensive issues that could be temporarily solved by how bad North Carolina’s defense is (over 500 yards allowed per game at 7.4 yppl) and the Hokies have a strong defense under their new coaching staff (just 17.5 ppg and 4.0 yards per play allowed). UNC is elite offensively but they have trouble winning by margins because their defense is so bad (two wins against FBS teams were by a combined 9 points in which they gave up 89 points). The Tarheels also apply to a negative 86-183-4 ATS first conference home game situation.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

East Carolina (-9.5)  37   South Florida  26

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Northern Illinois (-4.5)  28   BALL STATE  27

Game Analysis view matchup stats

MINNESOTA (-11.5) vs Purdue

Purdue’s star QB Aidan O’Connell is a game time decision and I can’t forecast this game without knowing his status.

If I get an update I’ll post a prediction.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Navy (+14)  13   AIR FORCE  23

Teams the run the triple-option offense know how to defend that offense, which is why the under is now 50-15-3 in games between Navy, Army, and Air Force. The market has adjusted for that trend, as the totals have been much lower recently. However, the last 4 such games, all with totals of 40 points or lower, have still gone under with an average of just 26.5 total points scored.

Historically, the option team versus option team games have been about 6 points lower scoring than my math model projects, which puts this one at 36 points. I lean with Navy at +14 or more as big underdogs in games with low totals tends to do well and my math calls for a 10 point game.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – BAYLOR (-2.5)  33   Oklahoma State  26

Oklahoma State’s defense was among the best in the nation last season but the star players from that unit, and the star defensive coordinator, are gone and the Cowboys have allowed 6.1 yards per play in two games against FBS opponents Central Michigan and Arizona State, who would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average defense. I assume that the Oklahoma State’s defense is much better than they’ve shown but my math likes Baylor here even after blending in the Cowboys’ prior (i.e. their preseason rating).

Baylor has been consistently good so far this season with last week’s win at Iowa State being their most impressive showing (and their only loss was in OT on the road against a ranked BYU team). I’ll lean with Baylor at -3 or less.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

KANSAS (+3)  29   Iowa State  29

Game Analysis view matchup stats

South Alabama (-8.5)  28   LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE  18

Game Analysis view matchup stats

MEMPHIS (-18.5)  34   Temple  14

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Cincinnati (-10) at TULSA

Tulsa quarterback Davis Brin is having a great season so far but he’s listed as day-to-day. I’ll wait for more definitive information on his status before posting a predicted score.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

EASTERN MICHIGAN (-20)  36   Massachusetts  18

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

NEW MEXICO STATE (-14.5)  34   Florida International  16

I’d lean with New Mexico State at -14 or less.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

WASHINGTON STATE (-4)  26   California  24

Game Analysis view matchup stats

ARIZONA (-17.5)  39   Colorado  21

Game Analysis view matchup stats

USC (-25.5)  39   Arizona State  16

USC is looking a bit overrated now, as their 4-0 start has been aided by a very fortunate +14 in turnover margin. This line would have been around 13 or 14 points prior to the season.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

OREGON (-17)  43   Stanford  23

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Under (54.5) – MISSISSIPPI (-6.5)  26   Kentucky  21

Mississippi’s offense gets all the publicity but the Rebels’ defense has allowed an average of just 10 points per game and 4.3 yards per play to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense. Kentucky has been below average offensively but should perk up with the debut of superstar RB Chris Rodriguez, who ran for 1379 yards at 6.1 ypr last season but was suspended for the first 4 games of this campaign. I expect Kavosley Smoke (5.1 yprp  since the beginning of last season and 5.2 ypr this season) to get the start but Rodriguez will take the reps of backups that have combined for just 3.0 ypr on 42 runs this season.

Kentucky’s defense is just as good as the Ole’Miss offense and I think it will be a challenge for these teams to top 54 total points. I’ll lean Under 54 points or more.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

KANSAS STATE (-7.5)  30   Texas Tech  20

Game Analysis view matchup stats

OHIO STATE (-39.5)  51   Rutgers  12

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – TCU (+5.5)  35   Oklahoma  36

My ratings favor Oklahoma by just 4.5 points in this game and TCU applies to a 131-58-4 ATS home underdog momentum situation that has me leaning with the Horned Frogs at +5 or more.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Michigan (-10.5)  23   IOWA  13

Game Analysis view matchup stats

TEXAS (-9)  34   West Virginia  23

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Louisiana State (-8)  30   AUBURN  21

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Under (54) – Georgia (-29)  37   MISSOURI  10

Georgia has allowed just 8 points per game to a slate of opponents that are collectively 0.6 yards per play better offensively than Missouri is, so I don’t expect the Tigers to score more than 10 points. Georgia’s offense is potent and the Bulldogs are averaging 42.3 points, but Missouri has been really good defensively in limiting their 4 opponents to just 4.6 yards per play. Those teams would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team, so the Tigers are likely to hold Georgia below their points average. The 40 points that Missouri gave up to Kansas State is misleading as the Wildcats gained just 340 yards at 5.4 yppl in that game and should have scored around 23 points.

I’ll lean Under 54 points or more.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Game Analysis view matchup stats