College Football Rotation
Sat, Dec 9 12:00 PM PT
Rotation: 103, Odds: Navy +3, Total: 27.5
Game Analysis view matchup stats
Army (-3) 14 Navy 12
Teams that run the option are usually best at defending the option because they see it every day in practice. That has resulted in games between Air Force, Navy, and Army being 53-16-3 Under. That trend gets bet every time and the oddsmakers set the total lower than they normally would and it still goes down (the total on this game went from 31.5 down to 27.5 points).
Last season all 3 games between the military schools was under in regulation despite the market betting the total down (Army-Navy was 10-10 before OT led to the game going over) and both such games have gone under this season with Navy vs Air Force having just 23 total points and Army vs Air Force totaling 26 points. You’re paying a premium now to follow that trend but I certainly don’t want to go against it and in this case I think the total should be 26.5 points, which is based on the difference between years of results of games between the 3 military academies and the math model predictions of what the total would normally be if the well-known trend wasn’t dragging the total down.