I was 76-66-3 on my Free Basketball plays during the 2018-19 season and my Free Basketball Analysis is a profitable 700-597-17 the last 5 basketball seasons – and 1605-1421-56 over the previous 13 seasons.
Thursday, June 13
I have no play on game 6 but here is my analysis.
GOLDEN STATE (-2.5) vs Toronto
Golden State managed to win game 5 by just 1 point despite a huge advantage in 3-point variance, as the Warriors made 20 of 42 from beyond the arc (48%) while the Raptors converted on just 8 of 32 (25%) 3-pointers. Golden State has been outscored by 30 points in this series despite an advantage in 3-point percentage of 38.2% to 34.1%, which is a bigger discrepancy than projected. That does not bode well for the Warriors, who have been outscored by an average of 6 points per game in this series despite the positive variance.
The Raptors have been the clearly better team in this series but my ratings favor the Warriors by 2 points. The Warriors will certainly be playing with great emotion and desperation tonight but winning by just 1 point despite significantly positive 3-point variance in a must-win game 5 leads me to believe that playing with their backs to the wall doesn’t really help the Warriors. In fact, game 6 home teams down 2 games to 3 after a game 5 road win are just 8-14 straight up and 7-15 ATS as far back as my database goes (1990-91 season), including 3-10 SU & ATS since 2001.
I’m not going to play this game, as a Toronto win would cash our 0.5 Stars series play on the Raptors +235.
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