My Thursday 1-Star Best Bet on San Antonio lost and my Opinions on Philadelphia and New Orleans both won (and my series play on the Pelicans is now up 3-0). I am now 160-138-2 on my Free plays this season – 110-101-2 on my Free Bets (11-4 College, 99-97-2 NBA) and 50-37 on my Free Basketball Opinions this season (34-24 College, 16-13 NBA).
I was 105-86-3 on my Free Analysis during the 2016-17 basketball season (16-15 on Free Best Bets and 89-71-3 on Opinions), which followed a record of 161-135-7 on the Free Analysis in the 2015-16 basketball season (38-32-2 on Free Best Bets and 123-103-5 on Opinions). Over 10 seasons I am 178-164-8 on my Free Basketball Best Bets and 993-881-41 on my Free Basketball Opinions.
Friday, April 20
**Boston (+6.5) over MILWAUKEE
Friday – 6:35 pm Pacific
As I wrote about in games 1 and 2, there has been a market overreaction to the injuries to Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart. Both are good players, but veteran big man Al Horford, 2nd-year man Jaylen Brown and rookie Jayson Tatum are the top-3 on the team in plus-minus per 48 minutes and those 3 players have a plus-minus of +14.1 points per 48 minutes playing without Irving and Smart this season (+75 points in 256.0 minutes), including +14 points in 46.65 minutes together in this series (+14.4 points per 48 minutes). The bench isn’t as deep due to those two injuries but taking Semi Ojeleye (-195 plus-minus in 1165 minutes this season) and Abdel Nader (-111 in 522.5 minutes) out of the rotation for game 2 certainly helped (Boston is -15 points when either, or both, of those two negative impact players are in the game in this series).
Milwaukee, meanwhile, has been a below average team since Jabari Parker joined the rotation after missing the first few months of the season. The Bucks have been outscored by 5.8 points per 48 minutes (-93 points in 767.4 minutes) when Parker has been in the game (-29 in the first 2 games of this series) and they’re just 13-20 ATS in the 33 games he’s played in this season, including just 5-14 ATS against teams with a winning record. This is nothing new, as Parker had a plus-minus of -89 points last season while the team was +70 points when he was on the bench. My ratings, based on current rotations, favors Milwaukee by just 1 ½ points after adding 1.5 additional points for the Bucks for losing the first two games. I’ll take the Celtics in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 1-Star down to +5.
Note: This game was posted on Wednesday when the line was +6.5.
I may add more analysis later today on Friday’s games.
Series Plays (all posted before Game 1)
Series Play – 1-Star on San Antonio (+720) over Golden State
Series Play – 2-Stars on New Orleans (+185) over Portland
Series Play – 2-Stars on Utah (+115) over Oklahoma City
Check back each day for updates or follow me on Twitter (@drbobsports) to get tweets when I add a play.
I’m down in the NBA so far but I’ve had a good Basketball season overall thanks to a really good College Basketball season. My College Best Bets were 211-167-7 and 348-257-8 on a Star Basis (6-7 on 3-Stars, 125-76-1 on 2-Stars and 80-84-6 on 1-Stars) for +65.3 Stars at -110 odds.