My Monday Free Opinion on Oklahoma +8.5 lost big at Kansas. I am now 122-96-1 on my Free plays this season – 81-71-1 on my Free Bets (9-3 College, 72-68-1 NBA) and 41-25 on my Free Basketball Opinions this season (31-18 College, 10-7 NBA).
I was 105-86-3 on my Free Analysis during the 2016-17 basketball season (16-15 on Free Best Bets and 89-71-3 on Opinions), which followed a record of 161-135-7 on the Free Analysis in the 2015-16 basketball season (38-32-2 on Free Best Bets and 123-103-5 on Opinions). Over 10 seasons I am 178-164-8 on my Free Basketball Best Bets and 993-881-41 on my Free Basketball Opinions.
Wednesday, February 21
Opinion – COLORADO (+3) over Southern Cal
Rotation #770 – 7:30 pm Pacific
Colorado has among the nation’s strongest home courts, mostly due to their altitude advantage against fellow Pac-12 teams that, aside from Utah, are all at sea-level and not used to playing in thin air. The difference in Colorado’s conference performance home and road is staggering, as the Buffaloes are just 16-45 straight up and 23-37-1 ATS in Pac-12 road games while going 46-15 straight up and 36-25 ATS in Pac-12 home games, including 25-14 ATS when not laying more than 6 points. Colorado has been a home underdog 13 times in Pac-12 play and the Buffs are 9-4 straight up in those games, including 2-0 this season with wins over Arizona and Arizona State. In addition to the team trend, the Buffaloes apply to a 136-60-6 ATS home revenge situation. My ratings favor USC by just 2 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll lean with Colorado plus the points in this one.
My College Basketball Best Bets are now 277-206-5 on a Star Basis for +50.4 Stars.
I have a College season Best Bets package is only $395, which is less than $10 a day.
Dr Bob Basketball
My Basketball Best Bets (College and NBA) are a very profitable +348.4 Stars (at -110 odds) the last 19 years and I’m 54.1% winners on my Basketball Best Bets over 29 years for an average profit of +28.5 Stars.
Last basketball season was by far my worst season in any sport in my 29 years as a professional handicapper (just 300-315-13 on Best Bets) and the NBA was the culprit. As I mentioned above regarding the NBA Guru, the patterns that have existed for decades in the NBA suddenly reversed themselves last season (the NBA situations were just 255-287-9 after being 53.5% the 12 prior seasons) and the ‘line value’ plays based on my player-specific ratings were just 179-163-6 last season (although 110-82-1 from mid-January on).
The problem was that the line value plays that I passed on because a significant situation favored the other side were 58% while the ones I played were just 48%, which is pretty bad selection luck. Most of the line value plays I passed on were posted as opinions and NBA Opinions were 69-46-2 (60%) last season.
What I learned during my analysis of my methods is that the NBA situations no longer deserve nearly as much weight as I’ve been giving them and my NBA ‘line value’ plays tend to work much better from January on. Overall the NBA ‘line value’ plays, which are games that my player-specific ratings show a significant difference from the line, are still a very good 447-368-16 (54.8%) and that is what I’ll be basing my NBA plays on this season.
You may have noticed that the price for my Basketball package has been nearly cut in half this season (just $895), which is because I’ve decided not to charge for my NBA plays after having such a bad 2016-17 season.
I’ll focus my attention on College Basketball early in the season and will release some NBA plays more regularly from January on, when my ratings are historically at their best.
My College Basketball Best Bets were just 163-149-9 last season (150-129-9 after a bad start) and they should have been better given how well my College Basketball methods worked overall.
My College Basketball ‘line value’ plays were a solid 111-95-2 and are 284-236-8 (54.5%) the last 3 seasons while the significant College situations (a 4 or 5 rating on a scale from 1 to 5) are now 854-743-37 (53.5%) over many seasons after going 121-94-7 last season.
Overall, my College Basketball methods worked really well last season but I simply did not release enough games as Best Bets, as the winners happened to be on the games I passed on (i.e. the opinions I released). It was just one of those years when the opinions won (55-41-1, 57.3%) while the Best Bets were just 52.2%. But, at least my methods worked at a profitable level and hopefully those percentages are reversed in the upcoming season.
I will be focusing much more on my College Basketball analysis but will still release NBA plays – but only those plays that qualify as ‘line value’ plays, which have been good – and mostly from January on when my ratings have been particularly profitable.