My Tuesday Free plays were 3-0 with Indiana in the NBA and Arkansas and Pepperdine in College. I am now 10-11 for the season my Free Basketball plays this season.
My Free Basketball Analysis is a profitable 700-597-17 the last 5 basketball seasons – and 1605-1421-56 over the previous 13 seasons.
Tuesday, November 12
Opinion – Providence (-9) over NORTHWESTERN
Rotation #645 – 6 pm Pacific
Northwestern was a decent team last season (#70 in my ratings) on a national scale despite a horrible offense that ranked 338 out of 353 Division 1 teams in field goal percentage. Their only two good offensive players from that team, Vic Law and Dererk Pardon, have graduated and two were also good defensive players. Northwestern was expected to be worse but not so bad as to lose by 10 points as a 19 point favorite to Merrimack, a team playing their first season at the D-1 level. Northwestern did make just 2 of 16 3-pointers in that loss but Merrimack didn’t light it up from 3-point range (31%) and the Wildcats probably would have lost that game even if they did shoot their expected 33% from long range. What stands out is the lack of defense to go along with the horrible offense. Northwestern allowed 65% on 2-point shots to Merrimack, so they Cats could drop even more defensively than anticipated without Law and Pardon.
Providence returns the bulk of their talent from last year’s team and could be a Top-25 team this season. I have the Friars currently ranked #30 in my ratings but they’ve been better than that so far with wins of 46 points as an 18.5-point favorite in their opener and a 29-point win laying 16.5 to a pretty solid NJIT squad. I am not overreacting to Northwestern’s one horrible game, or Providence’s two really strong games, but my ratings still favor the Friars by 10.5 points and they apply to a 99-32-2 ATS road favorite momentum situation.
And, I have an NBA 1-Star Best Bet for just $15.
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