NBA

NBA Guru Best Bets: 647-532-20 (55%) for +136.0 Stars

The NBA Guru won his game 5 3-Star Best Bet on Golden State -8.5 and also cashed his 2-Star play on the Warriors to win the series.

The NBA Guru was 93-100-4 on his Best Bets this past season, 28-40-1 on sides, 23-25-2 on totals, 23-24-1 on 1st half sides, 18-11 on 1st half totals and 1-0 on Series plays and 188-202-8 on a Star Basis (2-2 on 3-Stars, 91-98-4 on 2-Stars) for -34.4 Stars at -110 odds (with an extra -0.2 for added juice).

It was an uncharacteristic season but it’s very likely that the NBA Guru will be profitable going forward given his long term record of success.

NBA Guru 2015-16 Season Recap 

The NBA Guru ended the 2015-16 season at 104-71- 1 on his Best Bets (48-33 on Sides, 19-15- 1 on totals, 19-11 on 1st half sides, and 18-12 on 1st half totals) and 212-144- 2 on a Star Basis (4-2 on 3-Stars and 100-69- 1 on 2-Star Best Bets) for +53.6 Stars at -110 odds.

I won my game 5 3-Star Best Bet on Golden State -8.5, as the Warriors won by 9 points.

It was an extremely frustrating season in which the NBA situations that have worked at a profitable rate for years (53.5% for 12 seasons since I’ve been giving games a situational rating) were horrible this past season (255-287-9) and there was no way to see that coming. The other half of my NBA handicapping is my player-specific ratings and my line value plays, which are games in which my ratings have a significant difference from the line, were 179-163-6 in the 2016-17 season. That’s not a great record, obviously, but I’ve lost the majority of close games this season and line value plays over the last 4 years using my player-specific ratings have been profitable (447-368-12).

It was just a strange season in which patterns that have existed for years have been reversed. But, what really sucks is that the line value plays that go against situations are the ones that I tend to pass on, as over the years that has been the best strategy. This season, however, the line value plays that I passed on because a significant situation favors the other side are 58%. A lot of those I released as Opinions and NBA Opinions were 60% for the season (69-46-2).

Making matters worse is that I was just 27-45-4 on Best Bets decided by 3 points or less (based on the end of regulation score) and 1-2 in games decided by overtime (1 favorite that covered and 2 dogs that did not), which is just bad luck.

I would have had a losing season even if my luck was neutral but it certainly wouldn’t be nearly as bad.

I was just 137-166-4 on NBA Best Bets and 249-316-9 on a Star Basis (17-25-1 on 3-Stars, 78-100-3 on 2-Stars, and 42-41 on 1-Stars) for -105.7 Stars (including -7.0 on series plays and -0.1 Stars in extra juice). That’s nearly triple my previous worst NBA losing season in 29 years.