NBA

  • Dr. Bob NBA Season

    I am a very profitable +467.8 Stars (at -1.10 odds) the last 18 years on my Basketball Best Bets (and 54.3% on my Basketball Best Bets over 28 seasons for an average profit of +33.8 Stars).

    Get all NBA Basketball Best Bets, including NBA Playoffs, from now through the end of the 2016-2017 season. In addition to the emails with analysis, you can also choose to receive texts of each Best Bet. The texts are sent to everyone at precisely the same time, which allows you to beat the line moves. You can also view the Best Bets analysis on the site.

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Dr. Bob

Dr Bob Basketball Best Bets +467.5 Stars Last 18 Years
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Dr Bob’s Basketball Package include both College Basketball and NBA Best Bets and the Basketball Best Bets are 54.3% for an average profit of +33.8 Stars per season over 28 years.

Dr. Bob Basketball Full Season $925
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Free Analysis

I was 161-135-7 on the Free Analysis in the 2015-16 basketball season (38-32-2 on Free Best Bets and 123-103-5 on Opinions). Over 9 seasons I am 162-149-8 on my Free Basketball Best Bets and 904-810-38 on my Free Basketball Opinions.

Check back around 3:30 pm Pacific for an update on my Basketball Free Analysis page.

I split a couple of close games on Thursday, as I won 2-Stars with Memphis +8 (lost by only 7 at San Antonio) and lost a 2-Star Best Bet on New York +12, who lost by 15 at Portland thanks to some extreme 3-point shooting variance (i.e. luck) of 23% to 52% for the Blazers. Great bet. Bad result.

With the splitting of two close games I am now  just 20-38-4 on Best Bets decided by 3 points or less (based on the end of regulation score) and I’ve had two underdogs (+5 and +3.5) that have failed to cover in overtime (a 4 game swing) with zero favorites that have covered in OT.

My bad record on close games and games decided by OT is not an excuse. It’s a fact. And, the fact is my handicapping has been considerably better than my record. I wouldn’t be having a good season if my luck was neutral but it certainly wouldn’t be nearly as bad.

It’s been an extremely frustrating season but despite my poor season record (mostly due to a horrible first month) I still feel very confident in my NBA ratings. My ‘line value plays’ are games in which my ratings have a significant difference from the line and line value plays are 144-134-6 (70-58-1 lately). That’s not a great record, obviously, but line value plays over the last 4 years using my player-specific ratings have been profitable (367-320-14). Unfortunately, the NBA situations that have worked at a profitable rate for years (53.5% for 12 seasons since I’ve been giving games a situational rating) have been horrible this season (181-208-6).

It’s just been a strange season in which patterns that have existed for years have been reversed. But, what really sucks is that the line value plays that go against situations are the ones that I tend to pass on, as over the years that has been the best strategy. This season, however, the line value plays that I pass on because a significant situation favors the other side are 58%. A lot of those I’ve released as Opinions and Opinions are 23-10 recently and 59% for the season.

The fact that my ‘line value plays’ have won at a very good rate when I don’t play them and have lost when I make a line value play a Best Bet is incredibly frustrating and another form of bad luck, as it makes no sense that line value plays I’m passing on are 58% and the line value plays I’m playing are 46%. Part of that is due to losing 66% of the close games, which is just bad luck.

I expect my NBA handicapping t0 be profitable going forward, as I trust that years of profitable results is more indicative of my future than what’s happened so far this season. It’s highly unlikely that I’ll continue to win just 35% of the close games and I expect to win as long as I split the close ones going forward, which is to be expected.

I also won’t make any Best Bets that aren’t line value plays, or at least a combination of a good situation and nearly a line value play.

I am 101-128-4 on NBA Best Bets and 181-237-9 on a Star Basis (11-18-1 on 3-Stars, 58-73-3 on 2-Stars, and 32-37 on 1-Stars) for -79.7 Stars. That’s more than double my previous worst NBA losing season in 29 years and I expect to reduce that deficit over the final few months of the season.

  • NBA Guru Basketball Season

    The NBA Guru: +170.4 Stars in his 4 Seasons with Dr. Bob Sports.

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    Get a full season of NBA plays, through the 2016-17 NBA Playoffs, from the NBA Guru delivered via email (and via text) and available to view on the website.

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NBA Guru

210-140- 8 (60.0%) on NBA Best Bets Last 2 Seasons
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The NBA Guru is +170.4 Stars in his 4 Seasons with Dr. Bob Sports, including +114.8 Stars the last 2 seasons!

In those 4 seasons with Dr Bob Sports the NBA Guru is 554-432- 16 (56.2%) on his Best Bets (206-160-4 on Sides, 199-164- 5 on totals, 84-62- 5 on 1st half sides and 65-46- 2 on 1st half totals) and 1178-916- 33 on a Star Basis (70-52- 1 on 3-Stars and 484-380- 15 on 2-Stars) for a profit of 170.4 Stars at -110 odds.

NBA Guru Full Season $925
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Dr. Bob and NBA Guru Full Seasons $1595
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Free Analysis

Check the Free Analysis page around 3:45 pm Pacific each day for an update.

The NBA Guru won his Thursday Strong Opinion on Memphis +8.

Strong Opinions are now 206-177 (54%) lifetime.

NBA Guru Best Bets: 618-499-19 (55.3%) for +150.8 Stars

The NBA Guru had no Best Bets on Thursday.

The NBA Guru is 64-67-2 on his Best Bets this season, 21-27-1 on sides, 17-15-1 on totals, 15-18 on 1st half sides and 11-7 on 1st half totals and 129-135-4 on a Star Basis (1-1 on 3-Stars, 63-66-2 on 2-Stars) for -19.6 Stars at -110 odds (with an extra -0.1 for added juice).

It’s been an uncharacteristic season so far but it’s very likely that the NBA Guru will be profitable for the season given his long term record of success.

NBA Guru 2015-16 Season Recap 

The NBA Guru ended the 2015-16 season at 104-71- 1 on his Best Bets (48-33 on Sides, 19-15- 1 on totals, 19-11 on 1st half sides, and 18-12 on 1st half totals) and 212-144- 2 on a Star Basis (4-2 on 3-Stars and 100-69- 1 on 2-Star Best Bets) for +53.6 Stars at -110 odds.