NBA

Dr. Bob NBA

I no longer handicap the NBA, as I decided a few years ago to devote all of my attention to College Basketball.

Dr. Bob College Basketball

College Basketball Best Bets: 1992-1650-66 on a Star Basis for +171.5 Stars the last 7 seasons!

I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+459.3 Stars the last 26 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting.

The first four seasons using that predictive matchup model produced good results on Best Bets (1109-904-34, 55.1%) despite being an unlucky 8-18-2 on games decided by overtime (instead of 17-9-2 on those games had they been graded at the end of regulation) and winning only 46% of the close games (143-165-33 on Best Bets decided by less than 3 points) instead of the 50% expected in the long run.

Had we won 50% of the close games and had those games altered due to OT (i.e. dogs not covering) produce the results they would have in regulation then we’d have been 56.1% winners the last four seasons, which is incredibly good in Basketball. The new model has won despite the bad luck – particularly in the last two seasons (+77.25 Stars on Best Bets) and I expect even better results in the future.

Four Seasons with new matchup model: Best Bets are 1109-904-34 (55.1%) and Opinions are 894-772-28 (53.7%).

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