NBA Guru Best Bets: 792-667-23 for +126.9 Stars

The 2017-18 season was a disappointment for the NBA Guru, as he started the campaign with a 11-23-1 record for -28.6 Stars on his first 35 Best Bets. The performance the rest of the season was a pretty good 134-112-2 for +19.5 Stars despite some bad luck on close games and he nearly got all the way back to even with a very good run in the playoffs.

The NBA Guru finished the 2017-18 season at 145-135-3 (51.8%) on Best Bets (34-41-1 on sides, 59-50 on totals, 25-31-1 on 1st half sides, 27-13-1 on 1st half Totals) and 293-274-6 on a Star Basis (3-4 on 3-Stars, 142-131-3 on 2-Stars) for -9.1 Stars, which include -0.7 Stars in extra juice.  

However, the Guru’s level of handicapping was certainly better than his results, as his Best Bets covered the line by a combined 451.5 points (on 283 Best Bets, excluding -55 points due to overtime).  Normally an average cover margin of 1.60 ppg in the NBA would equate to a win percentage 55.8% (taking into account the distribution of type of play).   

The difference between the NBA Guru’s profitable level of handicapping and his actual win percentage (51.8%) was due to an incredibly unlucky record in close games and games decided by overtime.  His Best Bets were just 16-28-3 on games decided by 2 points or less rather than around 50% as expected (he was a combined 34-35-12 the previous 3 seasons on close games).  The difference between being 22-22-3 in those close games instead of 16-28 is 26.2 Stars.  The NBA Guru was also unlucky in going 1-3 on games decided due to overtime instead of 3-1 on those games, which is a difference of 8.4 Stars.

That’s a swing of 34.6 Stars due to poor luck, which is the major reason for the down season. However, the NBA Guru’s level of handicapping remains positive and his +126.9 Stars of profit in 6 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports is a better indication of his level of handicapping.

The NBA Guru is very optimistic about next season.  He started tracking a few new very unique metrics this past season that have showed promise.  Now, with a decent enough sample size he intends to implement them into his handicapping process next season after using those metrics in the playoffs (30-16-1 on playoff Best Bets).  The Guru also intends to release more plays in the morning next season to do a better job of beating the markets to the good numbers.

All 3 of the NBA Guru’s season win total plays (Strong Opinions) won.

For a detailed breakdown of NBA Guru’s records from past seasons you can check out his Past Performance page.