NFL

2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 222-166-2 (57.2%)  – 132-78-2 (63%) on Sides!

2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 157-116-7 (57.5%)

After a great 2018 NFL season (45-26 on Best Bets) the 2019 NFL season was a letdown as the Best Bets were just 40-39 (11-7 on 2-Star plays and 29-32 on 1-Stars) for +0.2 Stars of profit. The Strong Opinions were 34-23-3 for the season.

The 2019 NFL season was a frustrating, as we just weren’t been able to win as many close games as we lost in 2019 (5-10 on Best Bets decided by 3 points or less after being 11-7 on such games in 2018), but the long term results of the play-by-play model are still very good and the Best Bets and Strong Opinions combined for a solid 74-62-3 mark in 2019.

The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, with adjustments for personnel, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.

2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 222-166-2 (57.2%)  – 132-78-2 on Sides, 75-70 on totals, 2-3 1st-half totals, 5-9 team totals, 7-5 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 157-116-7 (57.5%) – 66-65-6 sides, 62-43-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-0 1st-half totals, 3-1 Team Totals, 2-1 teasers, 19-5 Post-season prop bets.

 

Closing Line Value

If you are among those that purchase plays by the week you’d be much better off subscribing to a 4-week or season package, as we are getting a lot of line value releasing Best Bets to subscribers early in the week.

In 2019 the average closing line value on the NFL Best Bets (not including the teasers and props) was +2.8%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 2.8% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.

The Best Bets beat the closing line 76% of the time in the 2019 season.

2016 was the first season using the new play-by-play model. Prior to 2016 my NFL Best Bets were based on situational analysis and my original math model, which performed very well for many years but offered very little value in later years. My NFL Best Bets were 57.8% from 1987 through 1998 but were just 50.6% from 1999 through 2012, which is when I decided to stop handicapping the NFL until I had a better model.

The new play-by-play model was introduced in 2016 with very good results and an improvement to the model was introduced starting in week 11 of the 2017 season that improved results (106-75-1 on Best Bets since then). I am very excited about the new improvements to the play-by-play predictive model and look forward to another profitable season in 2020.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page

 

College Football

My College Football Best Bets are 2152-1773-72 (55%) on a Star Basis for +226.5 Stars Since 1999 (+222.1 Stars on Sides, -20.4 Stars on Totals, and +26.8 Stars on season win totals and futures) and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 699-603-16 (606-520-14 on Sides and 93-83-2 on Totals).

My 2019 College Football Best Bets were just 36-33-3 for -5.97 Stars, which includes 5-3 for +4.98 Stars on season win totals. It was an odd season, as my math model performed well overall (the Strong Opinions were 22-16 and the Free Analysis plays were profitable) but not that well on the Best Bets. The sub-par record on Best Bets is partially explained by being a randomly bad -17 in turnover margin (-11 in fumble margin) on my 49 Best Bet sides. That led to a -2.5 games in the luck department, which is the difference between being a decent 39-31-2 rather than 36-33-3 on the Best Bets.

I still feel good about my math model and methodology as I head into the 2020 season. The Best Bet sides have been good for my entire career and the changes I made to my model prior to the 2017 season to predict totals better has worked well (Best Bet Over/Unders are 39-22-1 the last 3 seasons).

My 2018 College Football Best Bets were 52-35-2 (60%) and 75-49-3 on a Star Basis (2-0 on 3-Stars, 18-14-1 on 2-Stars and 32-21-1 on 1-Stars) for +20.85 Stars of profit (including -0.25 in extra juice). The Strong Opinions were 22-17 for the season.

I finally had a season in which I was even in close games and fumbles and had the positive results that my handicapping deserved after 3 seasons of losing a high percentage of close games (see below).

Unfortunately, my College Season Win Total Best Bets, which were 31-13-1 all-time entering the season, were 0-4 for -7.77 Stars. But, it was still a solidly profitable season at +13.08 Stars.

My 2017 College Best Bets were a decent 56-47-2 but I feel my level of handicapping was better than that record. My 101 Best Bets (excluding the 4 season win totals) combined to cover by a total of 229 points, which is an average of +2.3 points, despite my side Best Bets being -9 in fumble margin, which is random and worth about 36 points. A line differential of +2.3 points would normally equate to a win percentage of 56.1% winners, which is the best indicator of my handicapping level in 2017.

I suffered through a multi-year period from 2014-2017 in which my actual record wasn’t nearly as good as it should have been because I lost most of the toss-up games. From 2015 to 2017 I was a very unlucky 38-58-2 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or fewer (rather than about 50%, as expected) while being a very good 104-67 on Best Bets decided by more than 7 points. And, in 2014 I was -37 in fumble margin on my Best Bet sides, which is by far the worst fumble luck I’ve had in 31 years (fumbles are 90% random).

Some may have thought that the 2014-2017 seasons were an indication that my model didn’t work as well as it used to work, but my math model has actually continued to be very good overall (all predictions that varied from the line by 4 points or more are 610-519-28 the last four seasons) and it’s just random that I had four consecutive seasons of negative variance on my Best Bets (one in fumble margin and three in toss-up games) – although my Best Bets sides were still a profitable 117-100-3 from 2015-2017 despite the bad luck on close games. I have had my share of positive variance seasons too, which led to very high win percentages and a lot of profit, and the negative variance from 2014 to 2017 was inevitable at some point over a 3 decade career – and was unlikely to continue. In 2018 I was even in the luck department and had a very profitable season.

My college football handicapping the last six seasons is as good as it’s ever been but it hasn’t shown in my record because of the negative variance of fumble luck in 2014 and a bad record on close games from 2015 to 2017.

Last season I wrote that I was looking forward to having a season that is even in fumbles and 50% on close games so I can have a winning percentage that reflects my level of handicapping – which is still very good (my average line differential on all Best Bets from 2015-19 is +2.6 points, which equates to 57% in the long run).

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL SIDES RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1999	0	0	0	1	0	0	23	9	0	25	22	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	123	71	2	49	31	1	61.3%	NA	+44.9
2000	0	0	0	2	1	0	16	8	0	29	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	114	60	0	47	25	0	65.3%	NA	+48.0
2001	0	0	0	0	2	0	13	6	0	21	16	0	0	0	0	38	31	2	81	58	0	34	24	0	58.6%	NA	+17.2
2002	0	0	0	3	1	0	17	20	1	29	22	2	0	0	0	33	37	3	121	108	7	49	43	3	53.3%	NA	+2.2
2003	0	0	0	1	2	0	16	17	1	28	36	1	0	0	0	43	29	1	108	131	5	45	55	2	45.0%	NA	-36.1
2004	0	0	0	0	1	0	21	17	0	33	16	1	0	0	0	43	21	0	129	87	2	54	34	1	61.4%	NA	+33.3
2005	1	0	0	5	2	0	21	3	1	24	15	1	0	0	0	38	27	0	136	47	5	51	20	2	71.8%	NA	+84.3
2006	1	0	0	7	3	0	18	15	1	19	16	2	0	0	0	37	39	1	125	89	7	45	34	3	57.0%	NA	+27.1
2007	0	0	0	1	5	0	12	17	1	19	20	0	0	0	0	43	48	0	78	111	3	32	42	1	43.2%	NA	-44.1
2008	0	0	0	2	0	0	22	16	3	19	15	1	0	0	0	45	28	1	112	78	11	43	31	4	58.1%	NA	+26.2
2009	0	0	0	2	3	0	16	16	1	17	14	1	0	0	0	43	32	0	90	88	5	35	33	2	51.5%	+4	-2.8
2010	0	0	0	3	2	0	15	14	0	28	18	1	0	0	0	33	37	1	113	86	2	46	34	1	57.5%	+0.9	+19.3
2011	0	0	0	0	2	0	14	16	0	28	23	1	0	0	0	32	32	0	98	102	2	42	41	1	50.6%	+12.9	-1.3
2012	0	0	0	0	1	0	19	8	0	28	24	0	0	0	0	26	29	0	113	76	0	47	33	0	58.8%	-9.3	+20.1
2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	15	0	20	25	2	0	0	0	33	27	1	100	95	4	40	40	2	50.0%	+5	+0.5
2014	0	0	0	1	2	0	21	13	0	23	21	0	10	21	0	27	25	0	123	110	0	55	57	0	49.1%	+1.5	+3.5
2015	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	10	0	17	17	2	14	4	0	19	15	0	66	72	4	37	32	2	53.6%	+5.6	-7.6
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7	0	26	12	0	11	13	0	28	22	2	72	58	0	40	32	0	55.6%	+9	+17.2
2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	22	18	1	14	14	0	17	19	2	70	62	2	40	36	1	52.6%	NA	+1.8
2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15	11	0	20	17	1	14	13	0	56	39	1	37	28	1	56.9%	-7.8	+5.3
2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	16	2	12	9	1	14	9	0	30	41	5	21	25	3	45.7%	+5	-10.1
Total	2	0	0	28	28	0	299	231	9	479	393	19	81	78	2	606	520	14	2058	1669	67	889	730	30	54.9%	+26.8	+248.9
Win Pct	100.0%			50.0%			56.4%			54.9%			50.9%			53.8%			55.2%

Futures Best Bets include Season Win Totals, which are 36-20-1, and conference and national championship futures plays.

For more information on recent seasons read the following:

2017 College Football Season Recap.

2016 College Football Season Recap.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTALS RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2001	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	9	0	1	4	0	20.0%	NA	-7.9
2002	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	1	1	0.0%	NA	-2.2
2003	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	100.0%	NA	+2.0
2004	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	100.0%	NA	+2.0
2005	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0.0%	NA	-2.2
2006	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2008	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2009	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2010	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2011	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	4	0	0	4	0	0	2	0	0.0%	NA	-4.4
2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8	15	0	9	10	0	18	10	1	28	40	0	18	25	0	41.9%	NA	-16.0
2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	5	8	0	11	12	0	13	14	0	9	11	0	45.0%	NA	-2.4
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	7	4	0	2	4	0	2	4	0	33.3%	NA	-2.4
2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	14	8	0	11	13	0	14	12	0	14	10	0	58.3%	NA	+0.8
2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	1	11	4	0	8	4	0	19	10	2	15	7	1	68.2%	NA	+8.0
2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	8	3	0	8	7	0	12	7	0	10	5	0	66.7%	NA	+4.3
Total	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	21	32	1	49	37	0	93	83	2	94	104	5	71	70	2	50.4%	+0	-20.4
Win Pct							50.0%			39.6%			57.0%			52.8%			47.5%

 

College Basketball

My College Basketball Best Bets are a profitable +352.6 Stars the last 22 years (7393-6402-142 on a Star Basis).

I made some necessary changes to my College Basketball model and Best Bet selection process before the 2017-18 season and my Best Bets are a very profitable 524-449-21 the last three seasons and 811-677-26 on a Star Basis (8-13 on 3-Stars, 271-202-5 on 2-Stars and 245-234-16 on 1-Stars) for +64.9 Stars at -110 odds.

Those changes have had a huge positive impact that I expect to continue going forward.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE BASKETBALL RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1998	0	0	0	4	1	0	44	29	2	58	47	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	264	185	14	106	77	6	57.9%	NA	+60.5
1999	0	0	0	8	5	0	47	35	4	52	54	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	277	233	16	107	94	6	53.2%	NA	+20.7
2000	0	0	0	1	1	0	45	53	0	92	61	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	323	285	6	138	115	3	54.5%	NA	+9.5
2001	0	0	0	2	2	0	48	29	2	102	85	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	356	265	12	152	116	5	56.7%	NA	+64.5
2002	0	0	0	5	5	0	74	68	4	85	80	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	412	384	22	164	153	9	51.7%	NA	-10.4
2003	0	0	0	5	4	1	76	48	4	114	86	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	476	332	28	195	138	11	58.6%	NA	+110.8
2004	0	0	0	8	11	1	68	61	2	79	79	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	394	385	16	155	151	6	50.7%	NA	-29.5
2005	0	0	0	2	8	0	76	47	1	85	59	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	406	291	5	163	114	2	58.8%	NA	+85.9
2006	0	0	0	10	10	0	62	46	1	51	57	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	328	292	5	123	113	2	52.1%	NA	+6.8
2007	0	0	0	4	6	1	61	58	4	55	64	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	309	326	22	120	128	8	48.4%	NA	-49.6
2008	0	0	0	2	2	0	55	41	3	60	64	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	293	259	11	117	107	4	52.2%	NA	+8.1
2009	0	0	0	1	1	0	42	41	1	79	59	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	288	245	9	122	101	4	54.7%	NA	+18.5
2010	0	0	0	2	2	0	40	40	2	81	56	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	290	240	10	123	98	4	55.7%	NA	+26.0
2011	0	0	0	2	3	0	59	56	1	97	77	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	379	334	9	158	136	4	53.7%	NA	+11.6
2012	0	0	0	6	1	0	70	53	1	122	130	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	478	423	9	198	184	4	51.8%	NA	+12.7
2013	0	0	0	5	5	0	60	63	4	124	116	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	448	441	20	189	184	8	50.7%	NA	-37.1
2014	0	0	0	1	0	0	27	28	1	74	75	7	56	47	2	45	43	3	289	281	19	158	150	10	51.3%	NA	-20.1
2015	0	0	0	0	1	0	17	14	1	82	74	0	70	54	0	79	65	2	285	248	3	169	143	1	54.2%	NA	+12.2
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	18	22	2	89	81	6	56	46	1	55	41	1	288	274	19	163	149	9	52.2%	NA	-13.4
2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	7	0	125	76	1	80	84	6	52	36	0	348	257	8	211	167	7	55.8%	NA	+65.3
2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	73	57	3	109	83	5	39	39	2	255	209	11	182	144	8	55.8%	-0.6	+24.5
2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	73	69	1	56	67	5	31	32	1	208	211	7	131	138	6	48.7%	-0.8	-24.9
Total	0	0	0	68	68	3	997	845	40	1852	1606	65	427	381	19	301	256	9	7394	6400	281	3344	2900	127	53.6%	-1.4	+352.6
Win Pct				50.0%			54.1%			53.6%			52.8%			54.0%			53.6%

 

NBA

My NBA Best Bets have been profitable over my career as a public handicapper but I’ve struggled the last few years. However, I also have an NBA only handicapper in the NBA Guru, who has an outstanding track record in his 8 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports (and 4 seasons prior while I was monitoring his plays). The NBA Guru has a Best Bet record of 1016-839-28 on Best Bets for +194.9 Stars in 8 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports.

NBA Guru Past Performance

Season                        Win                  Loss                Push        Win Pct              Profit

2019-20                       121                   104                    1                 53.8%         +12.3 Stars

2018-19                        131                   82                     4                 61.4%        +80.7 Stars

2017-18                        145                  135                     3                51.8%          -9.1 Stars

2016-17                         93                  100                     4                 48.2%        -34.4 Stars

2015-16                       104                    71                      1                59.4%       +53.6 Stars

2014-15                       106                    69                     7                 60.6%       +61.2 Stars

2013-14                       196                  177                     6                 52.5%         +7.9 Stars

2012-13                       148                  115                     2                 56.3%       +47.7 Stars

---

8 Seasons                  1044                 853                   28                55.0%      +219.9 Stars

For a more detailed chart of NBA Guru Best Bets and a season by season recap you can visit the NBA Guru Past Performance page.

For details on available subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB NBA BASKETBALL RECORDS