NFL

2016-21 NFL Best Bets are 325-236-3 (57.9%)

2016-21 NFL Strong Opinions are 223-179-9 (55.5%)

 

The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.

2016-21 NFL Best Bets are 325-236-3 (57.9%)  – 170-110-2 on Sides, 114-97 on totals, 7-6 1st-half totals, 16-14-1 team totals, 16-9 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-21 NFL Strong Opinions are 223-179-9 (55.5%) – 89-91-7 sides, 80-59-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-4 1st-half totals, 9-9 Team Totals, 5-1-1 teasers, 35-14 Post-season prop bets.

 

Closing Line Value

The average closing line value on the NFL Best Bets in the 2021 season was +3.5%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 3.5% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model. The average closing line value on our NFL Best Bets in the 2020 season was +3.4%

The Best Bets beat the closing line 81% of the time last season and 79% of the time in 2020.

 

2016 was the first season using the new play-by-play model. Prior to 2016 my NFL Best Bets were based on situational analysis and my original math model, which performed very well for many years but offered very little value in later years. My NFL Best Bets were 57.8% from 1987 through 1998 but were just 50.6% from 1999 through 2012, which is when I decided to stop handicapping the NFL until I had a better model.

The new play-by-play model was introduced in 2016 with very good results and an improvement to the model was introduced starting in week 11 of the 2017 season that improved results (165-102-1 on Best Bets since then).

The improvements to the play-by-play predictive model before the 2020 season obviously worked well and I look forward to another profitable season in 2021.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page

 

College Football

My College Football Best Bets are 2255-1864-77 (55%) on a Star Basis for +237.3 Stars Since 1999 and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 750-644-18.

My 2021 College Football Best Bets 52-40-2 (57%) and my Strong Opinions were 27-24 for the season.

The math model worked well overall in 2021, as all sides with a predicted difference from the line of 4 points or more were 144-109-4 this season (56.9%), which includes the games on the Free Analysis page.

Thus, I feel good about my math model and methodology as I head into the 2022 season.

My 2020 College Football Best Bets were just 28-28-3 for -4.9 Stars (0-1 on 3-Stars, 8-7 on 2-Stars, 20-20-3 on 1-Stars with -0.15 of juice) and my Strong Opinions are 25-19-2 for the season (14-12-2 sides, 11-7 totals).

The Best Bets were just 2-5-3 on toss-up games (instead of 50%) and with 2 undeserved losses against zero lucky wins this season (my first college season without a lucky win). The Best Bets were just 28-28-3 but winning those two games I certainly deserved to win and going 3-4-3 on toss-up games instead of 2-5-3, would have resulted in a decent 31-25-3 record (55.3%), which is right at my all-time win percentage in college football. The Strong Opinions were 25-19-2 (57%), so overall my level of handicapping in 2020 was pretty solid, especially considering the amount of late-breaking news due to the Covid pandemic. I’ve has seasons when the luck has been on my side too and I won more close games than I lost in the NFL in 2020, which was been incredibly good (59-27 for 69% on Best Bets), so no complaints about the 2020 football season overall (87-55-3 on all 2020 Football Best Bets), although I suppose the few of you that didn’t have the NFL package have some complaints.

My 2019 College Football Best Bets were just 36-33-3 for -5.97 Stars, which includes 5-3 for +4.98 Stars on season win totals. It was an odd season, as my math model performed well overall (the Strong Opinions were 22-16 and the Free Analysis plays were profitable) but not well on the Best Bets. The sub-par record on Best Bets is partially explained by being a randomly bad -17 in turnover margin (-11 in fumble margin) on my 49 Best Bet sides. That led to a -2.5 games in the luck department, which is the difference between being a decent 39-31-2 rather than 36-33-3 on the Best Bets.

My 2018 College Football Best Bets were 52-35-2 (60%) and 75-49-3 on a Star Basis (2-0 on 3-Stars, 18-14-1 on 2-Stars and 32-21-1 on 1-Stars) for +20.85 Stars of profit (including -0.25 in extra juice). The Strong Opinions were 22-17 for the season.

I finally had a season in which I was even in close games and fumbles and had the positive results that my handicapping deserved after 3 seasons of losing a high percentage of close games (see below).

Unfortunately, my College Season Win Total Best Bets, which were 31-13-1 all-time entering the season, were 0-4 for -7.77 Stars. But, it was still a solidly profitable season at +13.08 Stars.

My 2017 College Best Bets were a decent 56-47-2 but I feel my level of handicapping was better than that record. My 101 Best Bets (excluding the 4 season win totals) combined to cover by a total of 229 points, which is an average of +2.3 points, despite my side Best Bets being -9 in fumble margin, which is random and worth about 36 points. A line differential of +2.3 points would normally equate to a win percentage of 56.1% winners, which is the best indicator of my handicapping level in 2017.

I suffered through a multi-year period from 2014-2017 in which my actual record wasn’t nearly as good as it should have been because I lost most of the toss-up games. From 2015 to 2017 I was a very unlucky 38-58-2 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or fewer (rather than about 50%, as expected) while being a very good 104-67 on Best Bets decided by more than 7 points. And, in 2014 I was -37 in fumble margin on my Best Bet sides, which is by far the worst fumble luck I’ve had in 33 years (fumbles are 90% random).

Some may have thought that the 2014-2017 seasons were an indication that my model didn’t work as well as it used to work, but my math model has actually continued to be very good overall (all predictions that varied from the line by 4 points or more were 647-554-32) and it’s just random that I had four consecutive seasons of negative variance on my Best Bets (one in fumble margin and three in toss-up games) – although my Best Bets sides were still a profitable 117-100-3 from 2015-2017 despite the bad luck on close games. I have had my share of positive variance seasons too, which led to very high win percentages and a lot of profit, and the negative variance from 2014 to 2017 was inevitable at some point over a 3 decade career – and was unlikely to continue. In 2018 I was even in the luck department and had a very profitable season.

My college football handicapping the last eight seasons is as good as it’s ever been but it hasn’t shown in my record because of the negative variance of fumble luck in 2014 and a bad record on close games from 2015 to 2017.

My average line differential on all Best Bets from 2015-21 is +1.9 points, which equates to 55% in the long run and last year showed that my math model is working as well as ever. Hopefully, that overall success of the model will translate into more Best Bet wins this season instead of winning on the Leans posted on the Free Analysis page.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL SIDES RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1999	0	0	0	1	0	0	23	9	0	25	22	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	123	71	2	49	31	1	61.3%	NA	+44.9
2000	0	0	0	2	1	0	16	8	0	29	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	114	60	0	47	25	0	65.3%	NA	+48.0
2001	0	0	0	0	2	0	13	6	0	21	16	0	0	0	0	38	31	2	81	58	0	34	24	0	58.6%	NA	+17.2
2002	0	0	0	3	1	0	17	20	1	29	22	2	0	0	0	33	37	3	121	108	7	49	43	3	53.3%	NA	+2.2
2003	0	0	0	1	2	0	16	17	1	28	36	1	0	0	0	43	29	1	108	131	5	45	55	2	45.0%	NA	-36.1
2004	0	0	0	0	1	0	21	17	0	33	16	1	0	0	0	43	21	0	129	87	2	54	34	1	61.4%	NA	+33.3
2005	1	0	0	5	2	0	21	3	1	24	15	1	0	0	0	38	27	0	136	47	5	51	20	2	71.8%	NA	+84.3
2006	1	0	0	7	3	0	18	15	1	19	16	2	0	0	0	37	39	1	125	89	7	45	34	3	57.0%	NA	+27.1
2007	0	0	0	1	5	0	12	17	1	19	20	0	0	0	0	43	48	0	78	111	3	32	42	1	43.2%	NA	-44.1
2008	0	0	0	2	0	0	22	16	3	19	15	1	0	0	0	45	28	1	112	78	11	43	31	4	58.1%	NA	+26.2
2009	0	0	0	2	3	0	16	16	1	17	14	1	0	0	0	43	32	0	90	88	5	35	33	2	51.5%	+4	-2.8
2010	0	0	0	3	2	0	15	14	0	28	18	1	0	0	0	33	37	1	113	86	2	46	34	1	57.5%	+0.9	+19.3
2011	0	0	0	0	2	0	14	16	0	28	23	1	0	0	0	32	32	0	98	102	2	42	41	1	50.6%	+12.9	-1.3
2012	0	0	0	0	1	0	19	8	0	28	24	0	0	0	0	26	29	0	113	76	0	47	33	0	58.8%	-9.3	+20.1
2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	15	0	20	25	2	0	0	0	33	27	1	100	95	4	40	40	2	50.0%	+5	+0.5
2014	0	0	0	1	2	0	21	13	0	23	21	0	10	21	0	27	25	0	123	110	0	55	57	0	49.1%	+1.5	+3.5
2015	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	10	0	17	17	2	14	4	0	19	15	0	66	72	4	37	32	2	53.6%	+5.6	-7.6
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7	0	26	12	0	11	13	0	28	22	2	72	58	0	40	32	0	55.6%	+9	+17.2
2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	22	18	1	14	14	0	17	19	2	70	62	2	40	36	1	52.6%	NA	+1.8
2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15	11	0	20	17	1	14	13	0	56	39	1	37	28	1	56.9%	-7.8	+5.3
2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	16	2	12	9	1	14	9	0	30	41	5	21	25	3	45.7%	+5	-10.1
2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	8	7	0	20	20	3	14	12	2	36	37	3	28	28	3	50.0%	NA	-4.7
2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	7	0	22	13	2	22	14	0	42	27	2	32	20	2	61.5%	+13.1	+25.4
Total	2	0	0	28	28	0	299	232	9	497	407	19	123	111	7	642	546	16	2136	1733	72	949	778	35	55.0%	+39.9	+269.6
Win Pct	100.0%			50.0%			56.3%			55.0%			52.6%			54.0%			55.2%

Futures Best Bets include Season Win Totals, which are 47-20-1, and conference and national championship futures plays.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTALS RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2001	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	9	0	1	4	0	20.0%	NA	-7.9
2002	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	1	1	0.0%	NA	-2.2
2003	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	100.0%	NA	+2.0
2004	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	100.0%	NA	+2.0
2005	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0.0%	NA	-2.2
2006	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2008	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2009	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2010	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2011	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	4	0	0	4	0	0	2	0	0.0%	NA	-4.4
2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8	15	0	9	10	0	18	10	1	28	40	0	18	25	0	41.9%	NA	-16.0
2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	5	8	0	11	12	0	13	14	0	9	11	0	45.0%	NA	-2.4
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	7	4	0	2	4	0	2	4	0	33.3%	NA	-2.4
2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	14	8	0	11	13	0	14	12	0	14	10	0	58.3%	NA	+0.8
2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	1	11	4	0	8	4	0	19	10	2	15	7	1	68.2%	NA	+8.0
2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	8	3	0	8	7	0	12	7	0	10	5	0	66.7%	NA	+4.3
2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	6	0	11	7	0	9	6	0	8	6	0	57.1%	NA	+2.4
2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	7	16	0	5	10	0	11	24	0	9	20	0	31.0%	NA	-15.4
Total	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	24	36	1	63	59	0	109	100	2	114	134	5	88	96	2	47.8%	+0	-33.4
Win Pct							50.0%			40.0%			51.6%			52.2%			46.0%

 

College Basketball

My College Basketball Best Bets are a profitable +382.7 Stars the last 24 years (7991-6914-305 on a Star Basis).

I made some necessary changes to my College Basketball model and Best Bet selection process before the 2017-18 season and my Best Bets are a very profitable 1039-884-38 the last five seasons and 1408-1191-50 on a Star Basis (12-16 on 3-Stars, 345-275-12 on 2-Stars and 682-593-26 on 1-Stars) for +94.25 Stars of profit.

New Matchup Model

Starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting.

The first two seasons using that predictive matchup model produced profitable results on Best Bets (515-435-17 for 54.2%) but have fallen short of expectations due to a very unlucky 71-90-17 on close games (bets decided by less than 3 points) and having horrible overtime luck (4-8-1 on Best Bets decided due to overtime instead of being 9-4 on those games – had they been graded at the end of regulation), which resulted in a swing of 14.7 Stars.

The close games should be 50% over time and the Best Bets the last two seasons would have been 529-422-16 (55.6%) had we been 80-81-17 on the close games (instead of 71-90-17) and been 9-4 on the games decided by overtime (instead of 4-8-1 in those games).

The Opinions, which I recommend playing for 0.5 Stars each, are 364-300-11 (54.8%) in two seasons with the new model.

The College Basketball Best Bets have been profitable with the new matchup model despite the bad luck and I expect the results to be even better going forward without the negative variance on close games and OT games.

More information on the new College Basketball model.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE BASKETBALL RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1998	0	0	0	4	1	0	44	29	2	58	47	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	264	185	14	106	77	6	57.9%	NA	+60.5
1999	0	0	0	8	5	0	47	35	4	52	54	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	277	233	16	107	94	6	53.2%	NA	+20.7
2000	0	0	0	1	1	0	45	53	0	92	61	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	323	285	6	138	115	3	54.5%	NA	+9.5
2001	0	0	0	2	2	0	48	29	2	102	85	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	356	265	12	152	116	5	56.7%	NA	+64.5
2002	0	0	0	5	5	0	74	68	4	85	80	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	412	384	22	164	153	9	51.7%	NA	-10.4
2003	0	0	0	5	4	1	76	48	4	114	86	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	476	332	28	195	138	11	58.6%	NA	+110.8
2004	0	0	0	8	11	1	68	61	2	79	79	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	394	385	16	155	151	6	50.7%	NA	-29.5
2005	0	0	0	2	8	0	76	47	1	85	59	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	406	291	5	163	114	2	58.8%	NA	+85.9
2006	0	0	0	10	10	0	62	46	1	51	57	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	328	292	5	123	113	2	52.1%	NA	+6.8
2007	0	0	0	4	6	1	61	58	4	55	64	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	309	326	22	120	128	8	48.4%	NA	-49.6
2008	0	0	0	2	2	0	55	41	3	60	64	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	293	259	11	117	107	4	52.2%	NA	+8.1
2009	0	0	0	1	1	0	42	41	1	79	59	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	288	245	9	122	101	4	54.7%	NA	+18.5
2010	0	0	0	2	2	0	40	40	2	81	56	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	290	240	10	123	98	4	55.7%	NA	+26.0
2011	0	0	0	2	3	0	59	56	1	97	77	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	379	334	9	158	136	4	53.7%	NA	+11.6
2012	0	0	0	6	1	0	70	53	1	122	130	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	478	423	9	198	184	4	51.8%	NA	+12.7
2013	0	0	0	5	5	0	60	63	4	124	116	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	448	441	20	189	184	8	50.7%	NA	-37.1
2014	0	0	0	1	0	0	27	28	1	74	75	7	56	47	2	45	43	3	289	281	19	158	150	10	51.3%	NA	-20.1
2015	0	0	0	0	1	0	17	14	1	82	74	0	70	54	0	79	65	2	285	248	3	169	143	1	54.2%	NA	+12.2
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	18	22	2	89	81	6	56	46	1	55	41	1	288	274	19	163	149	9	52.2%	NA	-13.4
2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	7	0	125	76	1	80	84	6	52	36	0	348	257	8	211	167	7	55.8%	NA	+65.3
2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	73	57	3	109	83	5	39	39	2	255	209	11	182	144	8	55.8%	-0.6	+24.5
2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	73	69	1	56	67	5	31	32	1	208	211	7	131	138	6	48.7%	-0.8	-24.9
2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	25	1	141	106	2	153	131	5	189	156	4	165	131	3	55.7%	-0.5	+16.9
2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	50	48	6	296	253	8	211	169	6	408	358	20	350	304	14	53.5%	-1	+13.2
Total	0	0	0	68	68	3	1001	848	40	1926	1679	72	864	740	29	665	556	20	7991	6914	305	3859	3335	144	53.6%	-2.9	+382.7
Win Pct				50.0%			54.1%			53.4%			53.9%			54.5%			53.6%

 

NBA

My NBA Best Bets have been profitable over my career as a public handicapper but I’ve struggled the last few years. However, I also have an NBA only handicapper in the NBA Guru, who has an outstanding track record in his 9 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports (and 4 seasons prior while I was monitoring his plays). The NBA Guru has a Best Bet record of 1218-1014-34 on Best Bets for +213.9 Stars in 9 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports.

NBA Guru Past Performance

Season                        Win                  Loss                Push        Win Pct              Profit

2021-22 (thru 4/16) 76                    62                     3                 55.1%          +15.3 Stars

2020-21                       174                  161                     6                 51.9%          -6.0 Stars

2019-20                       121                  104                     1                 53.8%       +12.3 Stars

2018-19                        131                   82                     4                 61.4%       +80.7 Stars

2017-18                        145                  135                     3                51.8%          -9.1 Stars

2016-17                         93                   100                     4                48.2%        -34.4 Stars

2015-16                       104                    71                     1                 59.4%       +53.6 Stars

2014-15                       106                    69                     7                 60.6%       +61.2 Stars

2013-14                       196                  177                     6                 52.5%         +7.9 Stars

2012-13                       148                  115                     2                 56.3%       +47.7 Stars

---

8 Seasons                  1218                1014                   34                54.6%      +213.9 Stars

For a more detailed chart of NBA Guru Best Bets and a season by season recap you can visit the NBA Guru Past Performance page.

For details on available subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB NBA BASKETBALL RECORDS