NFL

 

2016 was the first season using the new play-by-play model and the results were even better than expected, as the NFL Best Bets were 100-69 (59.2%), including 66-26 (72%) on Best Bet sides. Strong Opinions were also profitable.

 

Year       Category                   Sides                   Totals                 All Plays              Win Pct.

2016      Best Bets                 66-26-0                34-43-0                100-69-0                 59.2%

               Strong Opinions    27-30-3                36-22-1                  64-52-4*               55.2%

*Includes a Super Bowl prop bet Strong Opinion win.

 

Prior to 2016 my NFL Best Bets were based on situational analysis and my original math model, which performed very well for many years but offered very little value in later years. My NFL Best Bets were 57.8% from 1987 through 1998 but were just 50.6% from 1999 through 2012, which is when I decided to stop handicapping the NFL until I had a better model.

The new play-by-play model was introduced in 2016 with very good results and I’m looking forward to another profitable season of NFL Best Bets using advanced metrics. I don’t expect the NFL model to win 72% of the side Best Bets, as last season’s incredible 66-26 Best Bet record on sides was influenced by winning a large majority of close games (31-12 on games decided by 7 points or less) rather than being around 50% in those games. However, that makes up for college football, where I had a winning season despite losing 66% of the close decisions in that sport. The NFL Best Bets decided by more than 7 were a very good 35-14, which is an indication of how well the new model performed. Last year’s NFL sides Best Bets should have been around 63% winners, which is still incredibly good, but not as good as the actual 72% win percentage.

The NFL totals, on the other hand, should have been better, as there were 3 Best Bet totals that lost due to overtime (zero OT wins) and all Best Bet totals decided by 7 points or fewer were just 13-20. Overall, the 2016 NFL Best Bets graded out at 57.4% rather than the 59.2% that they actually were, so we had some positive variance on our side – although not enough to make up for the negative variance in College Football.

 

College Football

 

My College Football Best Bets are 1951-1602-59 (55%) on a Star Basis for +217.8 Stars Since 1999 (+221.7 Stars on Sides, -33.5 Stars on Totals, and +29.6 Stars on season win totals and futures) and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 609-528-13 (561-479-12 on Sides and 48-49-1 on Totals).

My 2016 College Best Bets were a profitable +14.2 Stars despite losing most of the close decisions – I was just 12-23 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or fewer, which is pretty unlucky. I had a great record on games that were clear cut, as I was 30-13 on Best Bets decided by more than 7 points, and the average line differential (how many points a bet wins or loses by) on my Best Bet sides was +3.8 points, which would equate to 61% long term, and is probably the best indicator of my handicapping level in 2016.

Currently, I’m going through a multi-year period in which my actual record isn’t nearly as good as it should be because I’ve lost most of the toss-up games. The last two seasons I am just 23-43-2 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or fewer (rather than about 50%, as expected) while being a very good 65-36 on Best Bets decided by more than 7 points. In 2014 I was -37 in fumble margin on my Best Bet sides, which is by far the worst fumble luck I’ve had in 29 years (fumbles are 90% random).

Some may think the last few seasons are an indication that my model doesn’t work as well as it used to but my math model has actually continued to be very good overall and it’s just random that I’ve had 3 consecutive seasons of negative variance on my Best Bets (one in fumble margin and two in toss-up games) – although my Best Bets sides have still been pretty good despite the bad luck on close games (77-64-2 on Best Bets sides the last two seasons). I have had my share of positive variance seasons too, which led to very high win percentages and a lot of profit, and the negative variance of the last three seasons is inevitable at some point over a nearly 3 decade career – and is unlikely to continue.

My college football handicapping the last three seasons is as good as it’s ever been but it hasn’t shown in my record because of the negative variance of fumble luck in 2014 and a bad record on close games the last two seasons. I’m looking forward to having a season that is even in fumbles and 50% on close games so I can have a winning percentage that reflects my level of handicapping – which is still very good. After 3 negative luck seasons I expect the future to be more profitable than the recent pass – assuming my luck is neutral.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL SIDES RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1999	0	0	0	1	0	0	23	9	0	25	22	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	123	71	2	49	31	1	61.3%	NA	+44.9
2000	0	0	0	2	1	0	16	8	0	29	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	114	60	0	47	25	0	65.3%	NA	+48.0
2001	0	0	0	0	2	0	13	6	0	21	16	0	0	0	0	38	31	2	81	58	0	34	24	0	58.6%	NA	+17.2
2002	0	0	0	3	1	0	17	20	1	29	22	2	0	0	0	33	37	3	121	108	7	49	43	3	53.3%	NA	+2.2
2003	0	0	0	1	2	0	16	17	1	28	36	1	0	0	0	43	29	1	108	131	5	45	55	2	45.0%	NA	-36.1
2004	0	0	0	0	1	0	21	17	0	33	16	1	0	0	0	43	21	0	129	87	2	54	34	1	61.4%	NA	+33.3
2005	1	0	0	5	2	0	21	3	1	24	15	1	0	0	0	38	27	0	136	47	5	51	20	2	71.8%	NA	+84.3
2006	1	0	0	7	3	0	18	15	1	19	16	2	0	0	0	37	39	1	125	89	7	45	34	3	57.0%	NA	+27.1
2007	0	0	0	1	5	0	12	17	1	19	20	0	0	0	0	43	48	0	78	111	3	32	42	1	43.2%	NA	-44.1
2008	0	0	0	2	0	0	22	16	3	19	15	1	0	0	0	45	28	1	112	78	11	43	31	4	58.1%	NA	+26.2
2009	0	0	0	2	3	0	16	16	1	17	14	1	0	0	0	43	32	0	90	88	5	35	33	2	51.5%	+4	-2.8
2010	0	0	0	3	2	0	15	14	0	28	18	1	0	0	0	33	37	1	113	86	2	46	34	1	57.5%	+0.9	+19.3
2011	0	0	0	0	2	0	14	16	0	28	23	1	0	0	0	32	32	0	98	102	2	42	41	1	50.6%	+12.9	-1.3
2012	0	0	0	0	1	0	19	8	0	28	24	0	0	0	0	26	29	0	113	76	0	47	33	0	58.8%	-9.3	+20.1
2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	15	0	20	25	2	0	0	0	33	27	1	100	95	4	40	40	2	50.0%	+5	+0.5
2014	0	0	0	1	2	0	21	13	0	23	21	0	10	21	0	27	25	0	123	110	0	55	57	0	49.1%	+1.5	+3.5
2015	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	10	0	17	17	2	14	4	0	19	15	0	66	72	4	37	32	2	53.6%	+5.6	-7.6
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7	0	26	12	0	11	13	0	28	22	2	72	58	0	40	32	0	55.6%	+9	+17.2
Total	2	0	0	28	28	0	293	227	9	433	348	16	35	38	0	561	479	12	1902	1527	59	791	641	25	55.2%	+29.6	+251.9
Win Pct	100.0%			50.0%			56.3%			55.4%			47.9%			53.9%			55.5%

Futures Best Bets include Season Win Totals, which are 24-10, and conference and national championship futures plays.

For more information on recent seasons see the 2016 College Football Season Recap.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTALS RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2001	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	9	0	1	4	0	20.0%	NA	-7.9
2002	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	1	1	0.0%	NA	-2.2
2003	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	100.0%	NA	+2.0
2004	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	100.0%	NA	+2.0
2005	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0.0%	NA	-2.2
2006	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2008	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2009	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2010	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2011	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	4	0	0	4	0	0	2	0	0.0%	NA	-4.4
2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8	15	0	9	10	0	18	10	1	28	40	0	18	25	0	41.9%	NA	-16.0
2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	5	8	0	11	12	0	13	14	0	9	11	0	45.0%	NA	-2.4
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	7	4	0	2	4	0	2	4	0	33.3%	NA	-2.4
Total	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	15	25	0	16	22	0	66	59	2	49	75	3	32	48	1	40.0%	+0	-33.5
Win Pct							50.0%			37.5%			42.1%			52.8%			39.5%

 

College Basketball

 

My College Basketball Best Bets are a profitable +287.7 Stars the last 19 years (6583-5723-116 on a Star Basis). The 2016-17 season was disappointing, as my Best Bets were just 163-149-9 – although I rallied from a 13-20 start to the season. The good news is that my line value plays, based on significant differences between my ratings and the line, were pretty good at 111-95-2 and the games applying to significant situations were also good (121-94-7). My problem last season is that I didn’t trust my methods as much as I should have and passed on too many games I should have played, which is why my opinions were so good. I expect to bounce-back with a profitable College season in 2017-18.

DR. BOB COLLEGE BASKETBALL RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1998	0	0	0	4	1	0	44	29	2	58	47	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	264	185	14	106	77	6	57.9%	NA	+60.5
1999	0	0	0	8	5	0	47	35	4	52	54	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	277	233	16	107	94	6	53.2%	NA	+20.7
2000	0	0	0	1	1	0	45	53	0	92	61	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	323	285	6	138	115	3	54.5%	NA	+9.5
2001	0	0	0	2	2	0	48	29	2	102	85	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	356	265	12	152	116	5	56.7%	NA	+64.5
2002	0	0	0	5	5	0	74	68	4	85	80	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	412	384	22	164	153	9	51.7%	NA	-10.4
2003	0	0	0	5	4	1	76	48	4	114	86	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	476	332	28	195	138	11	58.6%	NA	+110.8
2004	0	0	0	8	11	1	68	61	2	79	79	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	394	385	16	155	151	6	50.7%	NA	-29.5
2005	0	0	0	2	8	0	76	47	1	85	59	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	406	291	5	163	114	2	58.8%	NA	+85.9
2006	0	0	0	10	10	0	62	46	1	51	57	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	328	292	5	123	113	2	52.1%	NA	+6.8
2007	0	0	0	4	6	1	61	58	4	55	64	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	309	326	22	120	128	8	48.4%	NA	-49.6
2008	0	0	0	2	2	0	55	41	3	60	64	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	293	259	11	117	107	4	52.2%	NA	+8.1
2009	0	0	0	1	1	0	42	41	1	79	59	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	288	245	9	122	101	4	54.7%	NA	+18.5
2010	0	0	0	2	2	0	40	40	2	81	56	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	290	240	10	123	98	4	55.7%	NA	+26.0
2011	0	0	0	2	3	0	59	56	1	97	77	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	379	334	9	158	136	4	53.7%	NA	+11.6
2012	0	0	0	6	1	0	70	53	1	122	130	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	478	423	9	198	184	4	51.8%	NA	+12.7
2013	0	0	0	5	5	0	60	63	4	124	116	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	448	441	20	189	184	8	50.7%	NA	-37.1
2014	0	0	0	1	0	0	27	28	1	74	75	7	56	47	2	45	43	3	289	281	19	158	150	10	51.3%	NA	-20.1
2015	0	0	0	0	1	0	17	14	1	82	74	0	70	54	0	79	65	2	285	248	3	169	143	1	54.2%	NA	+12.2
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	18	22	2	89	81	6	56	46	1	55	41	1	288	274	19	163	149	9	52.2%	NA	-13.4
Total	0	0	0	68	68	3	989	832	40	1581	1404	60	182	147	3	179	149	6	6583	5723	255	2820	2451	106	53.5%	+0	+287.7
Win Pct				50.0%			54.3%			53.0%			55.3%			54.6%			53.5%

 

NBA

 

My NBA Best Bets have been profitable over my career as a public handicapper but the 2016-17 NBA season was nearly 3 times worse than any previous season in any sport in my 29 years. I have decided to leave the NBA handicapping to the NBA Guru, who has an outstanding track record in his 5 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports (and 4 seasons prior while I was monitoring his plays). The NBA Guru has a Best Bet record of 647-532-20 (55%) and a profit of +136.0 Stars in 5 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports. I will focus my attention towards my college basketball analysis, which is likely to enhance my performance in that sport. However, I will continue to post some NBA plays on my Basketball Free Analysis page.

 

NBA Guru Past Performance

 

Season                        Win                  Loss                Push        Win Pct              Profit

2016-17                         93                  100                     4                 48.2%        -34.4 Stars

2015-16                       104                    71                     1                 59.4%       +53.6 Stars

2014-15                       106                    69                     7                 60.6%       +61.2 Stars

2013-14                       196                  177                     6                 52.5%         +7.9 Stars

2012-13                       148                  115                     2                 56.3%       +47.7 Stars

---

5 Years                        647                  532                   20                54.9%     +136.0 Stars

 

For a more detailed chart of NBA Guru Best Bets and a season by season recap you can visit the NBA Guru Past Performance page.

 

DR. BOB NBA BASKETBALL RECORDS