Dr. Bob Past Performance

NFL

 

2016 was the first season using the new play-by-play model and the results were even better than expected, as the NFL Best Bets were 100-69 (59.2%), including 66-26 (72%) on Best Bet sides. Strong Opinions were also profitable. Note: All NFL Best Bets were rated the same.

 

Year       Category                   Sides                   Totals                 All Plays              Win Pct.

2016      Best Bets                 66-26-0                34-43-0                100-69-0                 59.2%

               Strong Opinions    27-30-3                36-22-1                  64-52-4*               55.2%

*Includes a Super Bowl prop bet Strong Opinion win.

 

Prior to 2016 my NFL Best Bets were based on situational analysis and my original math model, which performed very well for many years but offered very little value in later years. My NFL Best Bets were 57.8% from 1987 through 1998 but were just 50.6% from 1999 through 2012, which is when I decided to stop handicapping the NFL until I had a better model.

The new play-by-play model was introduced in 2016 with very good results and I’m looking forward to another profitable season of NFL Best Bets using advanced metrics. I don’t expect the NFL model to win 72% of the side Best Bets, as last season’s incredible 66-26 Best Bet record on sides was influenced by winning a large majority of close games (31-12 on games decided by 7 points or less) rather than being around 50% in those games. However, that makes up for college football, where I had a winning season despite losing 66% of the close decisions in that sport. The NFL Best Bets decided by more than 7 were a very good 35-14, which is an indication of how well the new model performed. Last year’s NFL sides Best Bets should have been around 63% winners, which is still incredibly good, but not as good as the actual 72% win percentage.

The NFL totals, on the other hand, should have been better, as there were 3 Best Bet totals that lost due to overtime (zero OT wins) and all Best Bet totals decided by 7 points or fewer were just 13-20. Overall, the 2016 NFL Best Bets graded out at 57.4% rather than the 59.2% that they actually were, so we had some positive variance on our side – although not enough to make up for the negative variance in College Football.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

 

College Football

 

My College Football Best Bets are 1951-1602-59 (55%) on a Star Basis for +217.8 Stars Since 1999 (+221.7 Stars on Sides, -33.5 Stars on Totals, and +29.6 Stars on season win totals and futures) and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 609-528-13 (561-479-12 on Sides and 48-49-1 on Totals).

My 2016 College Best Bets were a profitable +14.2 Stars despite losing most of the close decisions – I was just 12-23 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or fewer, which is pretty unlucky. I had a great record on games that were clear cut, as I was 30-13 on Best Bets decided by more than 7 points, and the average line differential (how many points a bet wins or loses by) on my Best Bet sides was +3.8 points, which would equate to 61% long term, and is probably the best indicator of my handicapping level in 2016.

I’ve suffered through a multi-year period in which my actual record isn’t nearly as good as it should be because I’ve lost most of the toss-up games. The last two seasons I am just 23-43-2 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or fewer (rather than about 50%, as expected) while being a very good 65-36 on Best Bets decided by more than 7 points. In 2014 I was -37 in fumble margin on my Best Bet sides, which is by far the worst fumble luck I’ve had in 29 years (fumbles are 90% random). Thankfully, I had some positive variance in close games in my very good 2016 NFL season (see the NFL section above), which helped make up for some of the bad luck in college football.

Some may think the last few seasons are an indication that my model doesn’t work as well as it used to but my math model has actually continued to be very good overall (all predictions that varied from the line by 4 points or more were 177-137-3 (56.4%) last season) and it’s just random that I’ve had 3 consecutive seasons of negative variance on my Best Bets (one in fumble margin and two in toss-up games) – although my Best Bets sides have still been pretty good despite the bad luck on close games (77-64-2 on Best Bets sides the last two seasons). I have had my share of positive variance seasons too, which led to very high win percentages and a lot of profit, and the negative variance of the last three seasons is inevitable at some point over a nearly 3 decade career – and is unlikely to continue.

My college football handicapping the last three seasons is as good as it’s ever been but it hasn’t shown in my record because of the negative variance of fumble luck in 2014 and a bad record on close games the last two seasons. I’m looking forward to having a season that is even in fumbles and 50% on close games so I can have a winning percentage that reflects my level of handicapping – which is still very good. After 3 negative luck seasons I expect the future to be more profitable than the recent pass – assuming my luck is neutral.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL SIDES RECORDS

Season 5-Star 4-Star 3-Star 2-Star 1-Star Strong Opinions Star Basis Best Bets Win Pct Futures Net Stars
WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT
1999 0 0 0 1 0 0 23 9 0 25 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 123 71 2 49 31 1 61.3% NA +44.9
2000 0 0 0 2 1 0 16 8 0 29 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 114 60 0 47 25 0 65.3% NA +48.0
2001 0 0 0 0 2 0 13 6 0 21 16 0 0 0 0 38 31 2 81 58 0 34 24 0 58.6% NA +17.2
2002 0 0 0 3 1 0 17 20 1 29 22 2 0 0 0 33 37 3 121 108 7 49 43 3 53.3% NA +2.2
2003 0 0 0 1 2 0 16 17 1 28 36 1 0 0 0 43 29 1 108 131 5 45 55 2 45.0% NA -36.1
2004 0 0 0 0 1 0 21 17 0 33 16 1 0 0 0 43 21 0 129 87 2 54 34 1 61.4% NA +33.3
2005 1 0 0 5 2 0 21 3 1 24 15 1 0 0 0 38 27 0 136 47 5 51 20 2 71.8% NA +84.3
2006 1 0 0 7 3 0 18 15 1 19 16 2 0 0 0 37 39 1 125 89 7 45 34 3 57.0% NA +27.1
2007 0 0 0 1 5 0 12 17 1 19 20 0 0 0 0 43 48 0 78 111 3 32 42 1 43.2% NA -44.1
2008 0 0 0 2 0 0 22 16 3 19 15 1 0 0 0 45 28 1 112 78 11 43 31 4 58.1% NA +26.2
2009 0 0 0 2 3 0 16 16 1 17 14 1 0 0 0 43 32 0 90 88 5 35 33 2 51.5% +4 -2.8
2010 0 0 0 3 2 0 15 14 0 28 18 1 0 0 0 33 37 1 113 86 2 46 34 1 57.5% +0.9 +19.3
2011 0 0 0 0 2 0 14 16 0 28 23 1 0 0 0 32 32 0 98 102 2 42 41 1 50.6% +12.9 -1.3
2012 0 0 0 0 1 0 19 8 0 28 24 0 0 0 0 26 29 0 113 76 0 47 33 0 58.8% -9.3 +20.1
2013 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 15 0 20 25 2 0 0 0 33 27 1 100 95 4 40 40 2 50.0% +5 +0.5
2014 0 0 0 1 2 0 21 13 0 23 21 0 10 21 0 27 25 0 123 110 0 55 57 0 49.1% +1.5 +3.5
2015 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 10 0 17 17 2 14 4 0 19 15 0 66 72 4 37 32 2 53.6% +5.6 -7.6
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 0 26 12 0 11 13 0 28 22 2 72 58 0 40 32 0 55.6% +9 +17.2
Total 2 0 0 28 28 0 293 227 9 433 348 16 35 38 0 561 479 12 1902 1527 59 791 641 25 55.2% +29.6 +251.9
Win Pct 100.0% 50.0% 56.3% 55.4% 47.9% 53.9% 55.5%

Futures Best Bets include Season Win Totals, which are 24-10, and conference and national championship futures plays.

For more information on recent seasons see the 2016 College Football Season Recap.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTALS RECORDS

Season 5-Star 4-Star 3-Star 2-Star 1-Star Strong Opinions Star Basis Best Bets Win Pct Futures Net Stars
WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT
1999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 9 0 1 4 0 20.0% NA -7.9
2002 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 2 3 0 1 1 0.0% NA -2.2
2003 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 100.0% NA +2.0
2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 100.0% NA +2.0
2005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0.0% NA -2.2
2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2008 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2009 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 0.0% NA -4.4
2013 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2014 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 8 15 0 9 10 0 18 10 1 28 40 0 18 25 0 41.9% NA -16.0
2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 5 8 0 11 12 0 13 14 0 9 11 0 45.0% NA -2.4
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 7 4 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 33.3% NA -2.4
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 15 25 0 16 22 0 66 59 2 49 75 3 32 48 1 40.0% +0 -33.5
Win Pct 50.0% 37.5% 42.1% 52.8% 39.5%

 

College Basketball

 

My College Basketball Best Bets are a profitable +287.7 Stars the last 19 years (6583-5723-116 on a Star Basis). The 2016-17 season was disappointing, as my Best Bets were just 163-149-9 – although I rallied from a 13-20 start to the season. The good news is that my line value plays, based on significant differences between my ratings and the line, were pretty good at 111-95-2 and the games applying to significant situations were also good (121-94-7). My problem last season is that I didn’t trust my methods as much as I should have and passed on too many games I should have played, which is why my opinions were so good (57.3%). I expect to bounce-back with a profitable College season in 2017-18.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE BASKETBALL RECORDS

Season 5-Star 4-Star 3-Star 2-Star 1-Star Strong Opinions Star Basis Best Bets Win Pct Futures Net Stars
WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT
1998 0 0 0 4 1 0 44 29 2 58 47 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 264 185 14 106 77 6 57.9% NA +60.5
1999 0 0 0 8 5 0 47 35 4 52 54 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 277 233 16 107 94 6 53.2% NA +20.7
2000 0 0 0 1 1 0 45 53 0 92 61 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 323 285 6 138 115 3 54.5% NA +9.5
2001 0 0 0 2 2 0 48 29 2 102 85 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 356 265 12 152 116 5 56.7% NA +64.5
2002 0 0 0 5 5 0 74 68 4 85 80 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 412 384 22 164 153 9 51.7% NA -10.4
2003 0 0 0 5 4 1 76 48 4 114 86 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 476 332 28 195 138 11 58.6% NA +110.8
2004 0 0 0 8 11 1 68 61 2 79 79 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 394 385 16 155 151 6 50.7% NA -29.5
2005 0 0 0 2 8 0 76 47 1 85 59 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 406 291 5 163 114 2 58.8% NA +85.9
2006 0 0 0 10 10 0 62 46 1 51 57 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 328 292 5 123 113 2 52.1% NA +6.8
2007 0 0 0 4 6 1 61 58 4 55 64 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 309 326 22 120 128 8 48.4% NA -49.6
2008 0 0 0 2 2 0 55 41 3 60 64 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 293 259 11 117 107 4 52.2% NA +8.1
2009 0 0 0 1 1 0 42 41 1 79 59 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 288 245 9 122 101 4 54.7% NA +18.5
2010 0 0 0 2 2 0 40 40 2 81 56 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 290 240 10 123 98 4 55.7% NA +26.0
2011 0 0 0 2 3 0 59 56 1 97 77 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 379 334 9 158 136 4 53.7% NA +11.6
2012 0 0 0 6 1 0 70 53 1 122 130 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 478 423 9 198 184 4 51.8% NA +12.7
2013 0 0 0 5 5 0 60 63 4 124 116 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 448 441 20 189 184 8 50.7% NA -37.1
2014 0 0 0 1 0 0 27 28 1 74 75 7 56 47 2 45 43 3 289 281 19 158 150 10 51.3% NA -20.1
2015 0 0 0 0 1 0 17 14 1 82 74 0 70 54 0 79 65 2 285 248 3 169 143 1 54.2% NA +12.2
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 22 2 89 81 6 56 46 1 55 41 1 288 274 19 163 149 9 52.2% NA -13.4
Total 0 0 0 68 68 3 989 832 40 1581 1404 60 182 147 3 179 149 6 6583 5723 255 2820 2451 106 53.5% +0 +287.7
Win Pct 50.0% 54.3% 53.0% 55.3% 54.6% 53.5%

 

NBA

 

My NBA Best Bets have been profitable over my career as a public handicapper but the 2016-17 NBA season was nearly 3 times worse than any previous season in any sport in my 29 years. I have decided to leave the NBA handicapping to the NBA Guru, who has an outstanding track record in his 5 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports (and 4 seasons prior while I was monitoring his plays). The NBA Guru has a Best Bet record of 647-532-20 (55%) and a profit of +136.0 Stars in 5 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports. I will focus my attention towards my college basketball analysis, which is likely to enhance my performance in that sport. However, I will continue to post some NBA plays on my Basketball Free Analysis page.

 

NBA Guru Past Performance

 

Season                        Win                  Loss                Push        Win Pct              Profit

2016-17                         93                  100                     4                 48.2%        -34.4 Stars

2015-16                       104                    71                     1                 59.4%       +53.6 Stars

2014-15                       106                    69                     7                 60.6%       +61.2 Stars

2013-14                       196                  177                     6                 52.5%         +7.9 Stars

2012-13                       148                  115                     2                 56.3%       +47.7 Stars


5 Years                        647                  532                   20                54.9%     +136.0 Stars

 

For a more detailed chart of NBA Guru Best Bets and a season by season recap you can visit the NBA Guru Past Performance page.

For details on available subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

 

DR. BOB NBA BASKETBALL RECORDS

Season 5-Star 4-Star 3-Star 2-Star 1-Star Strong Opinions Star Basis Best Bets Win Pct Futures Net Stars
WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT
1998 0 0 0 4 3 0 22 22 2 32 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 146 112 6 58 42 2 58.0% NA +22.8
1999 0 0 0 2 4 0 35 29 3 71 46 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 255 195 13 108 79 5 57.8% NA +40.5
2000 0 0 0 2 3 0 22 16 3 76 64 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 226 188 15 100 83 6 54.6% NA +19.2
2001 0 0 0 1 2 0 23 15 1 55 39 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 183 131 7 79 56 3 58.5% NA +38.9
2002 0 0 0 2 1 0 31 29 1 38 55 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 177 201 5 71 85 2 45.5% NA -44.1
2003 0 0 0 2 1 0 24 21 1 54 42 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 188 151 11 80 64 5 55.6% NA +21.9
2004 0 0 0 2 1 0 28 24 3 38 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 168 134 9 68 54 3 55.7% NA +20.6
2005 0 0 0 3 1 1 20 21 1 48 31 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 168 129 11 71 53 4 57.3% NA +26.1
2006 0 0 0 2 0 0 22 25 2 24 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 122 123 6 48 49 2 49.5% NA -13.3
2007 0 0 0 0 2 0 29 18 0 32 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 151 102 0 61 40 0 60.4% NA +38.8
2008 0 0 0 2 0 0 19 18 0 27 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 119 120 0 48 51 0 48.5% NA -13.0
2009 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 18 1 39 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 138 110 3 59 46 1 56.2% NA +17.0
2010 0 0 0 1 0 0 19 13 0 40 48 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 141 135 6 60 61 3 49.6% +11 +3.5
2011 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 14 0 36 42 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 108 126 2 48 56 1 46.2% -1.8 -32.4
2012 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 14 0 55 42 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 167 126 6 74 56 3 56.9% +0.4 +28.8
2013 0 0 0 2 0 0 25 21 1 61 56 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 205 175 11 88 77 5 53.3% -8 +4.5
2014 0 0 0 2 1 0 17 19 0 64 36 4 40 42 1 57 49 4 227 175 9 123 98 5 55.7% -1 +33.5
2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 16 0 51 66 1 32 32 3 63 50 3 185 212 5 100 114 4 46.7% +1.3 -46.9
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 25 1 78 100 3 42 41 0 69 46 2 249 316 9 137 166 4 45.2% -7.1 -105.7
Total 0 0 0 27 19 1 421 378 20 919 818 33 114 115 4 189 145 9 3323 2961 134 1481 1330 58 52.7% -5.2 +60.7
Win Pct 58.7% 52.7% 52.9% 49.8% 56.6% 52.9%