Dr. Bob Past Performance

NFL

2016-20 NFL Best Bets are 281-193-2 (59.3%)  – 159-88-2 (64%) on Sides!

2016-20 NFL Strong Opinions are 182-144-8 (55.8%)

2020 NFL Best Bets were 59-27 for +33.0 Stars and the Strong Opinions were just 25-28-1.

The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, with adjustments for personnel, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.

2016-20 NFL Best Bets are 281-193-2 (59.4%)  – 159-88-2 on Sides, 96-83 on totals, 6-3 1st-half totals, 8-11 team totals, 11-7 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-20 NFL Strong Opinions are 182-144-8 (55.8%) – 78-81-7 sides, 67-50-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-1 1st-half totals, 4-4 Team Totals, 2-1 teasers, 26-6 Post-season prop bets.

 

Closing Line Value

The average closing line value on the 2020 NFL Best Bets was +3.4%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 3.4% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.

The Best Bets beat the closing line 79% of the time in the 2020 season.

2016 was the first season using the new play-by-play model. Prior to 2016 my NFL Best Bets were based on situational analysis and my original math model, which performed very well for many years but offered very little value in later years. My NFL Best Bets were 57.8% from 1987 through 1998 but were just 50.6% from 1999 through 2012, which is when I decided to stop handicapping the NFL until I had a better model.

The new play-by-play model was introduced in 2016 with very good results and an improvement to the model was introduced starting in week 11 of the 2017 season that improved results (165-102-1 on Best Bets since then).

The improvements to the play-by-play predictive model before the 2020 season obviously worked well and I look forward to another profitable season in 2021.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page

 

College Football

My College Football Best Bets are 2188-1810-75 (55%) on a Star Basis for +223.6 Stars Since 1999 (+214.8 Stars on Sides, -18.0 Stars on Totals, and +26.8 Stars on season win totals and futures) and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 724-622-18 (622-532-16 on Sides and 102-90-2 on Totals).

My 2020 College Football Best Bets 28-28-3 for -4.9 Stars (0-1 on 3-Stars, 8-7 on 2-Stars, 20-20-3 on 1-Stars with -0.15 of juice) and my Strong Opinions are 25-19-2 for the season (14-12-2 sides, 11-7 totals).

The Best Bets were just 2-5-3 on toss-up games (instead of 50%) and with 2 undeserved losses against zero lucky wins this season (my first college season without a lucky win). The Best Bets were just 28-28-3 but winning those two games I certainly deserved to win and going 3-4-3 on toss-up games instead of 2-5-3, would have resulted in a decent 31-25-3 record (55.3%), which is right at my all-time win percentage in college football. The Strong Opinions were 25-19-2 (57%), so overall my level of handicapping in 2020 was pretty solid, especially considering the amount of late-breaking news due to the Covid pandemic. I’ve has seasons when the luck has been on my side too and this season I won more close games than I lost in the NFL in 2020, which was been incredibly good (59-27 for 69% on Best Bets), so no complaints about the 2020 football season overall (87-55-3 on all 2020 Football Best Bets), although I suppose the few of you that didn’t have the NFL package have some complaints.

I still feel good about my math model and methodology as I head into the 2021 season. The Best Bet sides have been good for my entire career and the changes I made to my model prior to the 2017 season to predict totals better has worked well (Best Bet Over/Unders are 47-28-1 the last 4 seasons).

My 2019 College Football Best Bets were just 36-33-3 for -5.97 Stars, which includes 5-3 for +4.98 Stars on season win totals. It was an odd season, as my math model performed well overall (the Strong Opinions were 22-16 and the Free Analysis plays were profitable) but not that well on the Best Bets. The sub-par record on Best Bets is partially explained by being a randomly bad -17 in turnover margin (-11 in fumble margin) on my 49 Best Bet sides. That led to a -2.5 games in the luck department, which is the difference between being a decent 39-31-2 rather than 36-33-3 on the Best Bets.

My 2018 College Football Best Bets were 52-35-2 (60%) and 75-49-3 on a Star Basis (2-0 on 3-Stars, 18-14-1 on 2-Stars and 32-21-1 on 1-Stars) for +20.85 Stars of profit (including -0.25 in extra juice). The Strong Opinions were 22-17 for the season.

I finally had a season in which I was even in close games and fumbles and had the positive results that my handicapping deserved after 3 seasons of losing a high percentage of close games (see below).

Unfortunately, my College Season Win Total Best Bets, which were 31-13-1 all-time entering the season, were 0-4 for -7.77 Stars. But, it was still a solidly profitable season at +13.08 Stars.

My 2017 College Best Bets were a decent 56-47-2 but I feel my level of handicapping was better than that record. My 101 Best Bets (excluding the 4 season win totals) combined to cover by a total of 229 points, which is an average of +2.3 points, despite my side Best Bets being -9 in fumble margin, which is random and worth about 36 points. A line differential of +2.3 points would normally equate to a win percentage of 56.1% winners, which is the best indicator of my handicapping level in 2017.

I suffered through a multi-year period from 2014-2017 in which my actual record wasn’t nearly as good as it should have been because I lost most of the toss-up games. From 2015 to 2017 I was a very unlucky 38-58-2 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or fewer (rather than about 50%, as expected) while being a very good 104-67 on Best Bets decided by more than 7 points. And, in 2014 I was -37 in fumble margin on my Best Bet sides, which is by far the worst fumble luck I’ve had in 31 years (fumbles are 90% random).

Some may have thought that the 2014-2017 seasons were an indication that my model didn’t work as well as it used to work, but my math model has actually continued to be very good overall (all predictions that varied from the line by 4 points or more are 647-554-32 the last five seasons) and it’s just random that I had four consecutive seasons of negative variance on my Best Bets (one in fumble margin and three in toss-up games) – although my Best Bets sides were still a profitable 117-100-3 from 2015-2017 despite the bad luck on close games. I have had my share of positive variance seasons too, which led to very high win percentages and a lot of profit, and the negative variance from 2014 to 2017 was inevitable at some point over a 3 decade career – and was unlikely to continue. In 2018 I was even in the luck department and had a very profitable season.

My college football handicapping the last seven seasons is as good as it’s ever been but it hasn’t shown in my record because of the negative variance of fumble luck in 2014 and a bad record on close games from 2015 to 2017.

Last season I wrote that I was looking forward to having a season that is even in fumbles and 50% on close games so I can have a winning percentage that reflects my level of handicapping – which is still very good (my average line differential on all Best Bets from 2015-20 is +2.3 points, which equates to 56% in the long run).

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL SIDES RECORDS

Season 5-Star 4-Star 3-Star 2-Star 1-Star Strong Opinions Star Basis Best Bets Win Pct Futures Net Stars
WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT
1999 0 0 0 1 0 0 23 9 0 25 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 123 71 2 49 31 1 61.3% NA +44.9
2000 0 0 0 2 1 0 16 8 0 29 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 114 60 0 47 25 0 65.3% NA +48.0
2001 0 0 0 0 2 0 13 6 0 21 16 0 0 0 0 38 31 2 81 58 0 34 24 0 58.6% NA +17.2
2002 0 0 0 3 1 0 17 20 1 29 22 2 0 0 0 33 37 3 121 108 7 49 43 3 53.3% NA +2.2
2003 0 0 0 1 2 0 16 17 1 28 36 1 0 0 0 43 29 1 108 131 5 45 55 2 45.0% NA -36.1
2004 0 0 0 0 1 0 21 17 0 33 16 1 0 0 0 43 21 0 129 87 2 54 34 1 61.4% NA +33.3
2005 1 0 0 5 2 0 21 3 1 24 15 1 0 0 0 38 27 0 136 47 5 51 20 2 71.8% NA +84.3
2006 1 0 0 7 3 0 18 15 1 19 16 2 0 0 0 37 39 1 125 89 7 45 34 3 57.0% NA +27.1
2007 0 0 0 1 5 0 12 17 1 19 20 0 0 0 0 43 48 0 78 111 3 32 42 1 43.2% NA -44.1
2008 0 0 0 2 0 0 22 16 3 19 15 1 0 0 0 45 28 1 112 78 11 43 31 4 58.1% NA +26.2
2009 0 0 0 2 3 0 16 16 1 17 14 1 0 0 0 43 32 0 90 88 5 35 33 2 51.5% +4 -2.8
2010 0 0 0 3 2 0 15 14 0 28 18 1 0 0 0 33 37 1 113 86 2 46 34 1 57.5% +0.9 +19.3
2011 0 0 0 0 2 0 14 16 0 28 23 1 0 0 0 32 32 0 98 102 2 42 41 1 50.6% +12.9 -1.3
2012 0 0 0 0 1 0 19 8 0 28 24 0 0 0 0 26 29 0 113 76 0 47 33 0 58.8% -9.3 +20.1
2013 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 15 0 20 25 2 0 0 0 33 27 1 100 95 4 40 40 2 50.0% +5 +0.5
2014 0 0 0 1 2 0 21 13 0 23 21 0 10 21 0 27 25 0 123 110 0 55 57 0 49.1% +1.5 +3.5
2015 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 10 0 17 17 2 14 4 0 19 15 0 66 72 4 37 32 2 53.6% +5.6 -7.6
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 0 26 12 0 11 13 0 28 22 2 72 58 0 40 32 0 55.6% +9 +17.2
2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 22 18 1 14 14 0 17 19 2 70 62 2 40 36 1 52.6% NA +1.8
2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 15 11 0 20 17 1 14 13 0 56 39 1 37 28 1 56.9% -7.8 +5.3
2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 16 2 12 9 1 14 9 0 30 41 5 21 25 3 45.7% +5 -10.1
2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 7 0 20 20 3 14 12 2 36 37 3 28 28 3 50.0% NA -4.7
Total 2 0 0 28 28 0 299 232 9 487 400 19 101 98 5 620 532 16 2094 1706 70 917 758 33 54.7% +26.8 +244.2
Win Pct 100.0% 50.0% 56.3% 54.9% 50.8% 53.8% 55.1%

Futures Best Bets include Season Win Totals, which are 36-20-1, and conference and national championship futures plays.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTALS RECORDS

Season 5-Star 4-Star 3-Star 2-Star 1-Star Strong Opinions Star Basis Best Bets Win Pct Futures Net Stars
WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT
1999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 9 0 1 4 0 20.0% NA -7.9
2002 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 2 3 0 1 1 0.0% NA -2.2
2003 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 100.0% NA +2.0
2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 100.0% NA +2.0
2005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0.0% NA -2.2
2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2008 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2009 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 0.0% NA -4.4
2013 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
2014 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 8 15 0 9 10 0 18 10 1 28 40 0 18 25 0 41.9% NA -16.0
2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 5 8 0 11 12 0 13 14 0 9 11 0 45.0% NA -2.4
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 7 4 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 33.3% NA -2.4
2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 14 8 0 11 13 0 14 12 0 14 10 0 58.3% NA +0.8
2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 1 11 4 0 8 4 0 19 10 2 15 7 1 68.2% NA +8.0
2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 8 3 0 8 7 0 12 7 0 10 5 0 66.7% NA +4.3
2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7 6 0 11 7 0 9 6 0 8 6 0 57.1% NA +2.4
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 22 32 1 56 43 0 104 90 2 103 110 5 79 76 2 51.0% +0 -18
Win Pct 50.0% 40.7% 56.6% 53.6% 48.4%

 

College Basketball

My College Basketball Best Bets are a profitable +368.8 Stars the last 23 years (7582-6558-146 on a Star Basis).

I made some necessary changes to my College Basketball model and Best Bet selection process before the 2017-18 season and my Best Bets are a very profitable 689-580-24 the last four seasons and 1000-833-30 on a Star Basis (8-13 on 3-Stars, 295-227-6 on 2-Stars and 386-340-18 on 1-Stars) for +81.05 Stars of profit.

New Matchup Model

Starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting. The first season using that predictive matchup model produced very good results on Best Bets (55.7%) despite winning only 40% of the close games (bets decided by less than 3 points).

More information on the new College Basketball model.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE BASKETBALL RECORDS

Season 5-Star 4-Star 3-Star 2-Star 1-Star Strong Opinions Star Basis Best Bets Win Pct Futures Net Stars
WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT
1998 0 0 0 4 1 0 44 29 2 58 47 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 264 185 14 106 77 6 57.9% NA +60.5
1999 0 0 0 8 5 0 47 35 4 52 54 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 277 233 16 107 94 6 53.2% NA +20.7
2000 0 0 0 1 1 0 45 53 0 92 61 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 323 285 6 138 115 3 54.5% NA +9.5
2001 0 0 0 2 2 0 48 29 2 102 85 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 356 265 12 152 116 5 56.7% NA +64.5
2002 0 0 0 5 5 0 74 68 4 85 80 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 412 384 22 164 153 9 51.7% NA -10.4
2003 0 0 0 5 4 1 76 48 4 114 86 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 476 332 28 195 138 11 58.6% NA +110.8
2004 0 0 0 8 11 1 68 61 2 79 79 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 394 385 16 155 151 6 50.7% NA -29.5
2005 0 0 0 2 8 0 76 47 1 85 59 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 406 291 5 163 114 2 58.8% NA +85.9
2006 0 0 0 10 10 0 62 46 1 51 57 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 328 292 5 123 113 2 52.1% NA +6.8
2007 0 0 0 4 6 1 61 58 4 55 64 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 309 326 22 120 128 8 48.4% NA -49.6
2008 0 0 0 2 2 0 55 41 3 60 64 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 293 259 11 117 107 4 52.2% NA +8.1
2009 0 0 0 1 1 0 42 41 1 79 59 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 288 245 9 122 101 4 54.7% NA +18.5
2010 0 0 0 2 2 0 40 40 2 81 56 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 290 240 10 123 98 4 55.7% NA +26.0
2011 0 0 0 2 3 0 59 56 1 97 77 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 379 334 9 158 136 4 53.7% NA +11.6
2012 0 0 0 6 1 0 70 53 1 122 130 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 478 423 9 198 184 4 51.8% NA +12.7
2013 0 0 0 5 5 0 60 63 4 124 116 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 448 441 20 189 184 8 50.7% NA -37.1
2014 0 0 0 1 0 0 27 28 1 74 75 7 56 47 2 45 43 3 289 281 19 158 150 10 51.3% NA -20.1
2015 0 0 0 0 1 0 17 14 1 82 74 0 70 54 0 79 65 2 285 248 3 169 143 1 54.2% NA +12.2
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 22 2 89 81 6 56 46 1 55 41 1 288 274 19 163 149 9 52.2% NA -13.4
2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 0 125 76 1 80 84 6 52 36 0 348 257 8 211 167 7 55.8% NA +65.3
2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 73 57 3 109 83 5 39 39 2 255 209 11 182 144 8 55.8% -0.6 +24.5
2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 73 69 1 56 67 5 31 32 1 208 211 7 131 138 6 48.7% -0.8 -24.9
2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 25 1 141 106 2 153 131 5 189 156 4 165 131 3 55.7% -0.5 +16.9
Total 0 0 0 68 68 3 997 845 40 1876 1631 66 568 487 21 454 387 14 7583 6556 285 3509 3031 130 53.7% -1.9 +369.5
Win Pct 50.0% 54.1% 53.5% 53.8% 54.0% 53.6%

 

NBA

My NBA Best Bets have been profitable over my career as a public handicapper but I’ve struggled the last few years. However, I also have an NBA only handicapper in the NBA Guru, who has an outstanding track record in his 8 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports (and 4 seasons prior while I was monitoring his plays). The NBA Guru has a Best Bet record of 1016-839-28 on Best Bets for +194.9 Stars in 8 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports.

NBA Guru Past Performance

Season                        Win                  Loss                Push        Win Pct              Profit

2019-20                       121                   104                    1                 53.8%         +12.3 Stars

2018-19                        131                   82                     4                 61.4%        +80.7 Stars

2017-18                        145                  135                     3                51.8%          -9.1 Stars

2016-17                         93                  100                     4                 48.2%        -34.4 Stars

2015-16                       104                    71                      1                59.4%       +53.6 Stars

2014-15                       106                    69                     7                 60.6%       +61.2 Stars

2013-14                       196                  177                     6                 52.5%         +7.9 Stars

2012-13                       148                  115                     2                 56.3%       +47.7 Stars


8 Seasons                  1044                 853                   28                55.0%      +219.9 Stars

For a more detailed chart of NBA Guru Best Bets and a season by season recap you can visit the NBA Guru Past Performance page.

For details on available subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB NBA BASKETBALL RECORDS

Season 5-Star 4-Star 3-Star 2-Star 1-Star Strong Opinions Star Basis Best Bets Win Pct Futures Net Stars
WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT WLT
1998 0 0 0 4 3 0 22 22 2 32 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 146 112 6 58 42 2 58.0% NA +22.8
1999 0 0 0 2 4 0 35 29 3 71 46 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 255 195 13 108 79 5 57.8% NA +40.5
2000 0 0 0 2 3 0 22 16 3 76 64 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 226 188 15 100 83 6 54.6% NA +19.2
2001 0 0 0 1 2 0 23 15 1 55 39 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 183 131 7 79 56 3 58.5% NA +38.9
2002 0 0 0 2 1 0 31 29 1 38 55 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 177 201 5 71 85 2 45.5% NA -44.1
2003 0 0 0 2 1 0 24 21 1 54 42 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 188 151 11 80 64 5 55.6% NA +21.9
2004 0 0 0 2 1 0 28 24 3 38 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 168 134 9 68 54 3 55.7% NA +20.6
2005 0 0 0 3 1 1 20 21 1 48 31 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 168 129 11 71 53 4 57.3% NA +26.1
2006 0 0 0 2 0 0 22 25 2 24 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 122 123 6 48 49 2 49.5% NA -13.3
2007 0 0 0 0 2 0 29 18 0 32 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 151 102 0 61 40 0 60.4% NA +38.8
2008 0 0 0 2 0 0 19 18 0 27 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 119 120 0 48 51 0 48.5% NA -13.0
2009 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 18 1 39 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 138 110 3 59 46 1 56.2% NA +17.0
2010 0 0 0 1 0 0 19 13 0 40 48 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 141 135 6 60 61 3 49.6% +11 +3.5
2011 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 14 0 36 42 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 108 126 2 48 56 1 46.2% -1.8 -32.4
2012 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 14 0 55 42 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 167 126 6 74 56 3 56.9% +0.4 +28.8
2013 0 0 0 2 0 0 25 21 1 61 56 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 205 175 11 88 77 5 53.3% -8 +4.5
2014 0 0 0 2 1 0 17 19 0 64 36 4 40 42 1 57 49 4 227 175 9 123 98 5 55.7% -1 +33.5
2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 16 0 51 66 1 32 32 3 63 50 3 185 212 5 100 114 4 46.7% +1.3 -46.9
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 25 1 78 100 3 42 41 0 69 46 2 249 316 9 137 166 4 45.2% -7.1 -105.7
2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 10 0 62 64 2 38 30 0 14 15 0 198 188 4 112 104 2 51.9% +2 -6.8
2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 28 27 1 62 48 0 36 30 0 118 105 2 90 76 1 54.2% +1.9 +4.4
2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 40 33 1 23 28 0 29 25 0 103 97 2 63 62 1 50.4% -3 -6.7
2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA +0.0
Total 0 0 0 27 19 1 433 390 20 1049 942 37 237 221 4 268 215 9 3742 3351 142 1746 1572 62 52.6% -4.3 +51.6
Win Pct 58.7% 52.6% 52.7% 51.7% 55.5% 52.8%