NFL

2016-22 NFL Best Bets are 368-271-6 (57.6%)

2016-22 NFL Strong Opinions are 263-212-11 (55.4%)

 

2016-22 NFL Best Bets are 368-271-6 (57.5%)  – 187-122-5 on Sides, 133-111 on totals, 8-6 1st-half totals, 20-18-1 team totals, 18-15 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-22 NFL Strong Opinions are 263-212-11 (55.4%) – 106-100-9 sides, 86-66-1 totals, 2-2 1st-half sides, 6-6 1st-half totals, 15-13 Team Totals, 5-2-1 teasers, 43-23 Post-season prop bets.

 

Closing Line Value

The average closing line value on the NFL Best Bets the last 4 seasons is +3.2%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 3.3% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.

2016 was the first season using the new play-by-play model. Prior to 2016 my NFL Best Bets were based on situational analysis and my original math model, which performed very well for many years but offered very little value in later years. My NFL Best Bets were 57.8% from 1987 through 1998 but were just 50.6% from 1999 through 2012, which is when I decided to stop handicapping the NFL until I had a better model.

The new play-by-play model was introduced in 2016 with very good results and an improvement to the model was introduced starting in week 11 of the 2017 season that improved results.

Improvements to the play-by-play predictive model are made annually as new metrics become available for testing.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page

 

College Football

My College Football Best Bets are 2380-1923-78 (55.3%) on a Star Basis, including season win totals, for +264.7 Stars Since 1999 and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 772-661-18.

My 2022 College Football Best Bets were 40-21-2 (65.5%) for +28.45 Stars and the Strong Opinions were 22-17.

The math model worked incredibly well in 2022, as all sides with a predicted difference from the line of 4 points or more were 105-78-3 this past season (57.4%), which includes the games on the Free Analysis page. The record on such sides is 249-187-7 (57.1%) the last two seasons.

Thus, I feel good about my math model and methodology as I head into the 2023 season.

My 2021 College Football Best Bets were 52-40-2 (57%) and my Strong Opinions were 27-24 for the season.

The math model worked incredibly well overall in 2021, as all sides with a predicted difference from the line of 4 points or more were 144-109-4 this season (56.9%), which includes the games on the Free Analysis page.

My 2020 College Football Best Bets were just 28-28-3 for -4.9 Stars (0-1 on 3-Stars, 8-7 on 2-Stars, 20-20-3 on 1-Stars with -0.15 of juice) and my Strong Opinions were 25-19-2 for the season (14-12-2 sides, 11-7 totals).

The 2020 Best Bets were just 2-5-3 on toss-up games (instead of 50%) and with 2 undeserved losses against zero lucky wins (my first college season without a lucky win). The Best Bets were just 28-28-3 but winning those two games I certainly deserved to win and going 3-4-3 on toss-up games instead of 2-5-3, would have resulted in a decent 31-25-3 record (55.3%), which is right at my all-time win percentage in college football. The Strong Opinions were 25-19-2 (57%), so overall my level of handicapping in 2020 was pretty solid, especially considering the amount of late-breaking news due to the Covid pandemic. I’ve has seasons when the luck has been on my side too and I won more close games than I lost in the NFL in 2020, which was been incredibly good (59-27 for 69% on Best Bets), so no complaints about the 2020 football season overall (87-55-3 on all 2020 Football Best Bets), although I suppose the few of you that didn’t have the NFL package have some complaints.

My 2019 College Football Best Bets were just 36-33-3 for -5.97 Stars, which includes 5-3 for +4.98 Stars on season win totals. It was an odd season, as my math model performed well overall (the Strong Opinions were 22-16 and the Free Analysis plays were profitable) but not well on the Best Bets. The sub-par record on Best Bets is partially explained by being a randomly bad -17 in turnover margin (-11 in fumble margin) on my 49 Best Bet sides. That led to a -2.5 games in the luck department, which is the difference between being a decent 39-31-2 rather than 36-33-3 on the Best Bets.

My 2018 College Football Best Bets were 52-35-2 (60%) and 75-49-3 on a Star Basis (2-0 on 3-Stars, 18-14-1 on 2-Stars and 32-21-1 on 1-Stars) for +20.85 Stars of profit (including -0.25 in extra juice). The Strong Opinions were 22-17 for the season.

I finally had a season in which I was even in close games and fumbles and had the positive results that my handicapping deserved after 3 seasons of losing a high percentage of close games (see below).

Unfortunately, my College Season Win Total Best Bets, which were 31-13-1 all-time entering the season, were 0-4 for -7.77 Stars. But, it was still a solidly profitable season at +13.08 Stars.

My 2017 College Best Bets were a decent 56-47-2 but I feel my level of handicapping was better than that record. My 101 Best Bets (excluding the 4 season win totals) combined to cover by a total of 229 points, which is an average of +2.3 points, despite my side Best Bets being -9 in fumble margin, which is random and worth about 36 points. A line differential of +2.3 points would normally equate to a win percentage of 56.1% winners, which is the best indicator of my handicapping level in 2017.

I suffered through a multi-year period from 2014-2017 in which my actual record wasn’t nearly as good as it should have been because I lost most of the toss-up games. From 2015 to 2017 I was a very unlucky 38-58-2 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or fewer (rather than about 50%, as expected) while being a very good 104-67 on Best Bets decided by more than 7 points. And, in 2014 I was -37 in fumble margin on my Best Bet sides, which is by far the worst fumble luck I’ve had in 33 years (fumbles are 90% random).

Some may have thought that the 2014-2017 seasons were an indication that my model didn’t work as well as it used to work, but my math model has actually continued to be very good overall (all predictions that varied from the line by 4 points or more were 647-554-32) and it’s just random that I had four consecutive seasons of negative variance on my Best Bets (one in fumble margin and three in toss-up games) – although my Best Bets sides were still a profitable 117-100-3 from 2015-2017 despite the bad luck on close games. I have had my share of positive variance seasons too, which led to very high win percentages and a lot of profit, and the negative variance from 2014 to 2017 was inevitable at some point over a 3 decade career – and was unlikely to continue. In 2018 I was even in the luck department and had a very profitable season.

My college football handicapping the last nine seasons is as good as it’s ever been but it hasn’t shown in my record because of the negative variance of fumble luck in 2014 and a bad record on close games from 2015 to 2017.

My average line differential on all Best Bets from 2015-22 is +2.1 points, which equates to 57% in the long run, and the last two years have showed that my math model is working as well as ever.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL SIDES RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1999	0	0	0	1	0	0	23	9	0	25	22	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	123	71	2	49	31	1	61.3%	NA	+44.9
2000	0	0	0	2	1	0	16	8	0	29	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	114	60	0	47	25	0	65.3%	NA	+48.0
2001	0	0	0	0	2	0	13	6	0	21	16	0	0	0	0	38	31	2	81	58	0	34	24	0	58.6%	NA	+17.2
2002	0	0	0	3	1	0	17	20	1	29	22	2	0	0	0	33	37	3	121	108	7	49	43	3	53.3%	NA	+2.2
2003	0	0	0	1	2	0	16	17	1	28	36	1	0	0	0	43	29	1	108	131	5	45	55	2	45.0%	NA	-36.1
2004	0	0	0	0	1	0	21	17	0	33	16	1	0	0	0	43	21	0	129	87	2	54	34	1	61.4%	NA	+33.3
2005	1	0	0	5	2	0	21	3	1	24	15	1	0	0	0	38	27	0	136	47	5	51	20	2	71.8%	NA	+84.3
2006	1	0	0	7	3	0	18	15	1	19	16	2	0	0	0	37	39	1	125	89	7	45	34	3	57.0%	NA	+27.1
2007	0	0	0	1	5	0	12	17	1	19	20	0	0	0	0	43	48	0	78	111	3	32	42	1	43.2%	NA	-44.1
2008	0	0	0	2	0	0	22	16	3	19	15	1	0	0	0	45	28	1	112	78	11	43	31	4	58.1%	NA	+26.2
2009	0	0	0	2	3	0	16	16	1	17	14	1	0	0	0	43	32	0	90	88	5	35	33	2	51.5%	+4	-2.8
2010	0	0	0	3	2	0	15	14	0	28	18	1	0	0	0	33	37	1	113	86	2	46	34	1	57.5%	+0.9	+19.3
2011	0	0	0	0	2	0	14	16	0	28	23	1	0	0	0	32	32	0	98	102	2	42	41	1	50.6%	+12.9	-1.3
2012	0	0	0	0	1	0	19	8	0	28	24	0	0	0	0	26	29	0	113	76	0	47	33	0	58.8%	-9.3	+20.1
2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	15	0	20	25	2	0	0	0	33	27	1	100	95	4	40	40	2	50.0%	+5	+0.5
2014	0	0	0	1	2	0	21	13	0	23	21	0	10	21	0	27	25	0	123	110	0	55	57	0	49.1%	+1.5	+3.5
2015	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	10	0	17	17	2	14	4	0	19	15	0	66	72	4	37	32	2	53.6%	+5.6	-7.6
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7	0	26	12	0	11	13	0	28	22	2	72	58	0	40	32	0	55.6%	+9	+17.2
2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	22	18	1	14	14	0	17	19	2	70	62	2	40	36	1	52.6%	NA	+1.8
2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15	11	0	20	17	1	14	13	0	56	39	1	37	28	1	56.9%	-7.8	+5.3
2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	16	2	12	9	1	14	9	0	30	41	5	21	25	3	45.7%	+5	-10.1
2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	8	7	0	20	20	3	14	12	2	36	37	3	28	28	3	50.0%	NA	-4.7
2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	7	0	22	13	2	22	14	0	42	27	2	32	20	2	61.5%	+13.1	+25.4
2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	4	2	16	10	0	18	12	0	40	18	4	28	14	2	66.7%	+7.7	+27.9
Total	2	0	0	28	28	0	299	232	9	509	411	21	139	121	7	660	558	16	2176	1751	76	977	792	37	55.2%	+47.6	+297.5
Win Pct	100.0%			50.0%			56.3%			55.3%			53.5%			54.2%			55.4%

Futures Best Bets include Season Win Totals, which are 55-23-1, and conference and national championship futures plays.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTALS RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2001	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	9	0	1	4	0	20.0%	NA	-7.9
2002	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	1	1	0.0%	NA	-2.2
2003	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	100.0%	NA	+2.0
2004	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	100.0%	NA	+2.0
2005	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0.0%	NA	-2.2
2006	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2008	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2009	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2010	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2011	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	4	0	0	4	0	0	2	0	0.0%	NA	-4.4
2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8	15	0	9	10	0	18	10	1	28	40	0	18	25	0	41.9%	NA	-16.0
2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	5	8	0	11	12	0	13	14	0	9	11	0	45.0%	NA	-2.4
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	7	4	0	2	4	0	2	4	0	33.3%	NA	-2.4
2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	14	8	0	11	13	0	14	12	0	14	10	0	58.3%	NA	+0.8
2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	1	11	4	0	8	4	0	19	10	2	15	7	1	68.2%	NA	+8.0
2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	8	3	0	8	7	0	12	7	0	10	5	0	66.7%	NA	+4.3
2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	6	0	11	7	0	9	6	0	8	6	0	57.1%	NA	+2.4
2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	7	16	0	5	10	0	11	24	0	9	20	0	31.0%	NA	-15.4
2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	4	0	4	5	0	5	4	0	4	4	0	50.0%	NA	+0.6
Total	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	25	36	1	66	63	0	113	105	2	119	138	5	92	100	2	47.9%	+0	-32.8
Win Pct							50.0%			41.0%			51.2%			51.8%			46.3%

 

College Basketball

My College Basketball Best Bets are a profitable +422.6 Stars the last 25 years (8307-7165-315 on a Star Basis and -2.9 in extra juice), including +134.15 Stars of profit the last 6 seasons.

New Matchup Model

Starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting.

The first three seasons using that predictive matchup model produced good results on Best Bets (817-675-27, 54.8%) despite winning only 45% of the close games (108-132-27 on Best Bets decided by less than 3 points) instead of the 50% expected in the long run, and being an unlucky 8-13-2 on games decided by overtime (instead of 13-9-1 on those games had they been graded at the end of regulation).

Had we won 50% of the close games and had those games altered due to OT (i.e. dogs not covering) produce the results they would have in regulation then we’d have been 55.9% winners the last three seasons, which is incredibly good in Basketball. The new model has won despite the bad luck and I expect even better results in the future.

The Opinions, which I recommend playing for 0.5 Stars each, are 642-542-18 (54.2%) in three seasons with the new model.

The 2022-23 College Best Bets were 302-240-10 (55.7%) while the Opinions were 288-242-7 (54.3%).

The College Basketball Best Bets have been profitable with the new matchup model despite the bad luck and I expect the results to be even better going forward without the negative variance on close games and OT games.

More information on the new College Basketball model.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE BASKETBALL RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1998	0	0	0	4	1	0	44	29	2	58	47	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	264	185	14	106	77	6	57.9%	NA	+60.5
1999	0	0	0	8	5	0	47	35	4	52	54	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	277	233	16	107	94	6	53.2%	NA	+20.7
2000	0	0	0	1	1	0	45	53	0	92	61	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	323	285	6	138	115	3	54.5%	NA	+9.5
2001	0	0	0	2	2	0	48	29	2	102	85	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	356	265	12	152	116	5	56.7%	NA	+64.5
2002	0	0	0	5	5	0	74	68	4	85	80	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	412	384	22	164	153	9	51.7%	NA	-10.4
2003	0	0	0	5	4	1	76	48	4	114	86	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	476	332	28	195	138	11	58.6%	NA	+110.8
2004	0	0	0	8	11	1	68	61	2	79	79	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	394	385	16	155	151	6	50.7%	NA	-29.5
2005	0	0	0	2	8	0	76	47	1	85	59	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	406	291	5	163	114	2	58.8%	NA	+85.9
2006	0	0	0	10	10	0	62	46	1	51	57	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	328	292	5	123	113	2	52.1%	NA	+6.8
2007	0	0	0	4	6	1	61	58	4	55	64	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	309	326	22	120	128	8	48.4%	NA	-49.6
2008	0	0	0	2	2	0	55	41	3	60	64	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	293	259	11	117	107	4	52.2%	NA	+8.1
2009	0	0	0	1	1	0	42	41	1	79	59	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	288	245	9	122	101	4	54.7%	NA	+18.5
2010	0	0	0	2	2	0	40	40	2	81	56	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	290	240	10	123	98	4	55.7%	NA	+26.0
2011	0	0	0	2	3	0	59	56	1	97	77	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	379	334	9	158	136	4	53.7%	NA	+11.6
2012	0	0	0	6	1	0	70	53	1	122	130	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	478	423	9	198	184	4	51.8%	NA	+12.7
2013	0	0	0	5	5	0	60	63	4	124	116	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	448	441	20	189	184	8	50.7%	NA	-37.1
2014	0	0	0	1	0	0	27	28	1	74	75	7	56	47	2	45	43	3	289	281	19	158	150	10	51.3%	NA	-20.1
2015	0	0	0	0	1	0	17	14	1	82	74	0	70	54	0	79	65	2	285	248	3	169	143	1	54.2%	NA	+12.2
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	18	22	2	89	81	6	56	46	1	55	41	1	288	274	19	163	149	9	52.2%	NA	-13.4
2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	7	0	125	76	1	80	84	6	52	36	0	348	257	8	211	167	7	55.8%	NA	+65.3
2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	73	57	3	109	83	5	39	39	2	255	209	11	182	144	8	55.8%	-0.6	+24.5
2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	73	69	1	56	67	5	31	32	1	208	211	7	131	138	6	48.7%	-0.8	-24.9
2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	25	1	141	106	2	153	131	5	189	156	4	165	131	3	55.7%	-0.5	+16.9
2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	50	48	6	296	253	8	211	169	6	408	358	20	350	304	14	53.5%	-1	+13.2
2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	11	0	288	229	10	288	242	7	316	251	10	302	240	10	55.7%	NA	+39.9
Total	0	0	0	68	68	3	1001	848	40	1940	1690	72	1152	969	39	953	798	27	8307	7165	315	4161	3575	154	53.8%	-2.9	+422.6
Win Pct				50.0%			54.1%			53.4%			54.3%			54.4%			53.7%

 

NBA

My NBA Best Bets have been profitable over my career as a public handicapper but I’ve struggled the last few years. However, I also have an NBA only handicapper in the NBA Guru, who has an outstanding track record in his 9 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports (and 4 seasons prior while I was monitoring his plays). The NBA Guru has a Best Bet record of 1218-1014-34 on Best Bets for +213.9 Stars in 9 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports.

NBA Guru Past Performance

Season                        Win                  Loss                Push        Win Pct              Profit

2022-23                        55                    53                      2                 50.9%          -8.25 Stars

2021-22                        96                    75                       3                56.1%        +26.5 Stars

2020-21                       174                  161                     6                 51.9%          -6.0 Stars

2019-20                       121                  104                     1                 53.8%       +12.3 Stars

2018-19                        131                   82                     4                 61.4%       +80.7 Stars

2017-18                        145                  135                     3                51.8%          -9.1 Stars

2016-17                         93                   100                     4                48.2%        -34.4 Stars

2015-16                       104                    71                     1                 59.4%       +53.6 Stars

2014-15                       106                    69                     7                 60.6%       +61.2 Stars

2013-14                       196                  177                     6                 52.5%         +7.9 Stars

2012-13                       148                  115                     2                 56.3%       +47.7 Stars

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11 Seasons                1369                1142                   379               54.5%      +232.15 Stars

For a more detailed chart of NBA Guru Best Bets and a season by season recap you can visit the NBA Guru Past Performance page.

For details on available subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB NBA BASKETBALL RECORDS