NFL

2016-23 NFL Best Bets are 417-298-8 (58.3%) – 50-27-2 in 2023

2016-23 NFL Strong Opinions are 303-248-13 (55.0%) – 40-36-2 in 2023

 

2016-23 NFL Best Bets are 417-298-8 (58.3%)  – 208-137-6 on Sides, 154-116 on totals, 8-7 1st-half totals, 25-18-2 team totals, 1-2 1st-half team totals, 20-17 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-23 NFL Strong Opinions are 303-248-13 (55.0%) – 114-113-10 sides, 101-75-1 totals, 2-2 1st-half sides, 7-7 1st-half totals, 19-13-1 Team Totals, 0-2 1st-half team totals, 6-2-1 teasers, 54-34 Post-season prop bets.

 

Closing Line Value

The average closing line value on the NFL Best Bets the last 5 seasons is +3.1%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 3.1% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.

2016 was the first season using the new play-by-play model. Prior to 2016 my NFL Best Bets were based on situational analysis and my original math model, which performed very well for many years but offered very little value in later years. My NFL Best Bets were 57.8% from 1987 through 1998 but were just 50.6% from 1999 through 2012, which is when I decided to stop handicapping the NFL until I had a better model.

The new play-by-play model was introduced in 2016 with very good results and an improvement to the model was introduced starting in week 11 of the 2017 season that improved results.

Improvements to the play-by-play predictive model are made annually as new metrics become available for testing.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page

 

College Football

My College Football Best Bets are 2427-1976-86 (55.1%) on a Star Basis, including season win totals, for +255.0 Stars Since 1999 and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 796-678-18.

 

My 2023 College Football Best Bets were just 35-33-2 for -9.7 Stars and the Strong Opinions were 23-15.

It was simply an unlucky season with more undeserved/unlucky losses than lucky wins.

The Best Bets are -13.6 Stars on the undeserved wins and losses tally (just 2 undeserved/lucky wins against 4 undeserved losses and an undeserved push). Both lucky wins were been 1-Star Best Bets for a +4.2 Stars swing (+2 Stars instead of -2.2 Stars) but losing (or pushing) Best Bets because of turnovers in games we surely otherwise would have won easily has cost us 17.8 Stars (-8.8 Stars instead of +9 Stars).

Those 5 unlucky games were games that without a doubt would have won easily had our teams been just -1 in turnovers. I’m talking about 5 games in which our team outgained their opponents by an average of 159.2 yards, with an average line of -1.2 points, that the stats (with turnovers projected by passes defended differential) projected an average win margin of 17.0 points – yet all 5 failed to win due to being randomly negative in turnovers with one having an onside kick recovered against them that led to the covering score.

I’ve had some lucky seasons over the years too but this season was certainly frustrating, especially after winning 66% of my College Best Bets the years before.

 

My 2022 College Football Best Bets were 40-21-2 (65.5%) for +28.45 Stars and the Strong Opinions were 22-17.

Unlike 2023, we had a good record on close games in 2022, as Best Bets decided by less than 7 points were 12-6-2. It still would have been a great season if I was even on the close games.

The math model worked incredibly well in 2022, as all sides with a predicted difference from the line of 4 points or more were 105-78-3 this past season (57.4%), which includes the games on the Free Analysis page. The record on such sides is 249-187-7 (57.1%) the last two seasons.

 

My 2021 College Football Best Bets were 52-40-2 (57%) and my Strong Opinions were 27-24 for the season.

The Best Bets decided by less than 7 points were 17-17-2, so the luck was even.

The math model worked incredibly well overall in 2021, as all sides with a predicted difference from the line of 4 points or more were 144-109-4 this season (56.9%), which includes the games on the Free Analysis page.

 

My 2018 to 2020 College Football Best Bets were 116-96-8 and the Strong Opinions were 69-52-2.

 

I suffered through a multi-year period from 2014-2017 in which my actual record wasn’t nearly as good as it should have been because I lost most of the toss-up games. From 2015 to 2017 I was a very unlucky 38-58-2 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or fewer (rather than about 50%, as expected) while being a very good 104-67 on Best Bets decided by more than 7 points. And, in 2014 I was -37 in fumble margin on my Best Bet sides, which is by far the worst fumble luck I’ve had in 33 years (fumbles are 90% random).

Some may have thought that the 2014-2017 seasons were an indication that my model didn’t work as well as it used to work, but my math model has actually continued to be very good overall (all predictions that varied from the line by 4 points or more were 647-554-32) and it’s just random that I had four consecutive seasons of negative variance on my Best Bets (one in fumble margin and three in toss-up games) – although my Best Bets sides were still a profitable 117-100-3 from 2015-2017 despite the bad luck on close games. I have had my share of positive variance seasons too, which led to very high win percentages and a lot of profit, and the negative variance from 2014 to 2017 was inevitable at some point over a nearly 4 decade career – and was unlikely to continue.

Since 2018 the College Football Best Bets are 243-190-14 (56.1%) while the Strong Opinions have been 141-108-2 (56.6%).

 

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL SIDES RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1999	0	0	0	1	0	0	23	9	0	25	22	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	123	71	2	49	31	1	61.3%	NA	+44.9
2000	0	0	0	2	1	0	16	8	0	29	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	114	60	0	47	25	0	65.3%	NA	+48.0
2001	0	0	0	0	2	0	13	6	0	21	16	0	0	0	0	38	31	2	81	58	0	34	24	0	58.6%	NA	+17.2
2002	0	0	0	3	1	0	17	20	1	29	22	2	0	0	0	33	37	3	121	108	7	49	43	3	53.3%	NA	+2.2
2003	0	0	0	1	2	0	16	17	1	28	36	1	0	0	0	43	29	1	108	131	5	45	55	2	45.0%	NA	-36.1
2004	0	0	0	0	1	0	21	17	0	33	16	1	0	0	0	43	21	0	129	87	2	54	34	1	61.4%	NA	+33.3
2005	1	0	0	5	2	0	21	3	1	24	15	1	0	0	0	38	27	0	136	47	5	51	20	2	71.8%	NA	+84.3
2006	1	0	0	7	3	0	18	15	1	19	16	2	0	0	0	37	39	1	125	89	7	45	34	3	57.0%	NA	+27.1
2007	0	0	0	1	5	0	12	17	1	19	20	0	0	0	0	43	48	0	78	111	3	32	42	1	43.2%	NA	-44.1
2008	0	0	0	2	0	0	22	16	3	19	15	1	0	0	0	45	28	1	112	78	11	43	31	4	58.1%	NA	+26.2
2009	0	0	0	2	3	0	16	16	1	17	14	1	0	0	0	43	32	0	90	88	5	35	33	2	51.5%	+4	-2.8
2010	0	0	0	3	2	0	15	14	0	28	18	1	0	0	0	33	37	1	113	86	2	46	34	1	57.5%	+0.9	+19.3
2011	0	0	0	0	2	0	14	16	0	28	23	1	0	0	0	32	32	0	98	102	2	42	41	1	50.6%	+12.9	-1.3
2012	0	0	0	0	1	0	19	8	0	28	24	0	0	0	0	26	29	0	113	76	0	47	33	0	58.8%	-9.3	+20.1
2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	15	0	20	25	2	0	0	0	33	27	1	100	95	4	40	40	2	50.0%	+5	+0.5
2014	0	0	0	1	2	0	21	13	0	23	21	0	10	21	0	27	25	0	123	110	0	55	57	0	49.1%	+1.5	+3.5
2015	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	10	0	17	17	2	14	4	0	19	15	0	66	72	4	37	32	2	53.6%	+5.6	-7.6
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7	0	26	12	0	11	13	0	28	22	2	72	58	0	40	32	0	55.6%	+9	+17.2
2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	22	18	1	14	14	0	17	19	2	70	62	2	40	36	1	52.6%	NA	+1.8
2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15	11	0	20	17	1	14	13	0	56	39	1	37	28	1	56.9%	-7.8	+5.3
2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	16	2	12	9	1	14	9	0	30	41	5	21	25	3	45.7%	+5	-10.1
2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7	5	0	13	12	3	14	12	2	27	25	3	20	18	3	52.6%	NA	-0.5
2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	7	0	22	13	2	22	14	0	42	27	2	32	20	2	61.5%	+13.1	+25.4
2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	4	2	16	10	0	18	12	0	40	18	4	28	14	2	66.7%	+7.7	+27.9
2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12	12	0	15	12	2	17	12	0	39	39	2	27	25	2	51.9%	-1.1	-5.0
Total	2	0	0	28	28	0	299	233	9	520	421	21	147	125	9	677	570	16	2206	1778	78	996	807	39	55.2%	+46.5	+296.7
Win Pct	100.0%			50.0%			56.2%			55.3%			54.0%			54.3%			55.4%

Futures Best Bets include Season Win Totals, which are 55-24-1, and conference and national championship futures plays.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTALS RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2001	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	9	0	1	4	0	20.0%	NA	-7.9
2002	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	1	1	0.0%	NA	-2.2
2003	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	100.0%	NA	+2.0
2004	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	100.0%	NA	+2.0
2005	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0.0%	NA	-2.2
2006	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2008	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2009	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2010	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2011	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	4	0	0	4	0	0	2	0	0.0%	NA	-4.4
2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	+0.0
2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8	15	0	9	10	0	18	10	1	28	40	0	18	25	0	41.9%	NA	-16.0
2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	5	8	0	11	12	0	13	14	0	9	11	0	45.0%	NA	-2.4
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	7	4	0	2	4	0	2	4	0	33.3%	NA	-2.4
2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	14	8	0	11	13	0	14	12	0	14	10	0	58.3%	NA	+0.8
2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	1	11	4	0	8	4	0	19	10	2	15	7	1	68.2%	NA	+8.0
2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	8	3	0	8	7	0	12	7	0	10	5	0	66.7%	NA	+4.3
2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	6	0	11	7	0	9	6	0	8	6	0	57.1%	NA	+2.4
2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	7	16	0	5	10	0	11	24	0	9	20	0	31.0%	NA	-15.4
2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	4	0	4	5	0	5	4	0	4	4	0	50.0%	NA	+0.6
2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	3	0	6	3	0	3	7	0	3	5	0	37.5%	NA	-4.7
Total	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	25	38	1	69	66	0	119	108	2	122	145	5	95	105	2	47.5%	+0	-37.5
Win Pct							50.0%			39.7%			51.1%			52.4%			45.7%

 

College Basketball

My College Basketball Best Bets are a profitable +459.3 Stars the last 26 years (8602-7399-322 on a Star Basis and -2.9 in extra juice), including +171.5 Stars of profit the last 7 seasons (+77.25 Stars the last 2 Seasons).

New Matchup Model

Starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting.

The first four seasons using that predictive matchup model produced good results on Best Bets (1109-904-34, 55.1%) despite being an unlucky 8-18-2 on games decided by overtime (instead of 17-9-2 on those games had they been graded at the end of regulation) and winning only 46% of the close games (143-166-34 on Best Bets decided by less than 3 points) instead of the 50% expected in the long run.

Had we won 50% of the close games and had those games altered due to OT (i.e. dogs not covering) produce the results they would have in regulation then we’d have been 56.1% winners the last four seasons, which is incredibly good in Basketball. The new model has won despite the bad luck – particularly in the last two seasons (+77.25 Stars on Best Bets) and I expect even better results in the future.

The Opinions, which I recommend playing for 0.5 Stars each, are 894-772-27 (53.7%) in four seasons with the new model.

The 2023-24 College Best Bets were 292-229-7 for +37.35 Stars and the Opinions were 252-230-9.

The 2022-23 College Best Bets were 302-240-10 (55.7%) while the Opinions were 288-242-7 (54.3%).

The College Basketball Best Bets have been profitable with the new matchup model despite the bad luck and I expect the results to be even better going forward without the negative variance on close games and OT games.

More information on the new College Basketball model.

For details on my subscription packages you can visit the Best Bets page.

DR. BOB COLLEGE BASKETBALL RECORDS

Season	5-Star			4-Star			3-Star			2-Star			1-Star			Strong Opinions			Star Basis			Best Bets			Win Pct	Futures	Net Stars
	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T	W	L	T
1998	0	0	0	4	1	0	44	29	2	58	47	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	264	185	14	106	77	6	57.9%	NA	+60.5
1999	0	0	0	8	5	0	47	35	4	52	54	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	277	233	16	107	94	6	53.2%	NA	+20.7
2000	0	0	0	1	1	0	45	53	0	92	61	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	323	285	6	138	115	3	54.5%	NA	+9.5
2001	0	0	0	2	2	0	48	29	2	102	85	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	356	265	12	152	116	5	56.7%	NA	+64.5
2002	0	0	0	5	5	0	74	68	4	85	80	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	412	384	22	164	153	9	51.7%	NA	-10.4
2003	0	0	0	5	4	1	76	48	4	114	86	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	476	332	28	195	138	11	58.6%	NA	+110.8
2004	0	0	0	8	11	1	68	61	2	79	79	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	394	385	16	155	151	6	50.7%	NA	-29.5
2005	0	0	0	2	8	0	76	47	1	85	59	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	406	291	5	163	114	2	58.8%	NA	+85.9
2006	0	0	0	10	10	0	62	46	1	51	57	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	328	292	5	123	113	2	52.1%	NA	+6.8
2007	0	0	0	4	6	1	61	58	4	55	64	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	309	326	22	120	128	8	48.4%	NA	-49.6
2008	0	0	0	2	2	0	55	41	3	60	64	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	293	259	11	117	107	4	52.2%	NA	+8.1
2009	0	0	0	1	1	0	42	41	1	79	59	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	288	245	9	122	101	4	54.7%	NA	+18.5
2010	0	0	0	2	2	0	40	40	2	81	56	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	290	240	10	123	98	4	55.7%	NA	+26.0
2011	0	0	0	2	3	0	59	56	1	97	77	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	379	334	9	158	136	4	53.7%	NA	+11.6
2012	0	0	0	6	1	0	70	53	1	122	130	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	478	423	9	198	184	4	51.8%	NA	+12.7
2013	0	0	0	5	5	0	60	63	4	124	116	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	448	441	20	189	184	8	50.7%	NA	-37.1
2014	0	0	0	1	0	0	27	28	1	74	75	7	56	47	2	45	43	3	289	281	19	158	150	10	51.3%	NA	-20.1
2015	0	0	0	0	1	0	17	14	1	82	74	0	70	54	0	79	65	2	285	248	3	169	143	1	54.2%	NA	+12.2
2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	18	22	2	89	81	6	56	46	1	55	41	1	288	274	19	163	149	9	52.2%	NA	-13.4
2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	7	0	125	76	1	80	84	6	52	36	0	348	257	8	211	167	7	55.8%	NA	+65.3
2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	73	57	3	109	83	5	39	39	2	255	209	11	182	144	8	55.8%	-0.6	+24.5
2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	73	69	1	56	67	5	31	32	1	208	211	7	131	138	6	48.7%	-0.8	-24.9
2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	25	1	141	106	2	153	131	5	189	156	4	165	131	3	55.7%	-0.5	+16.9
2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	50	48	6	296	253	8	211	169	6	408	358	20	350	304	14	53.5%	-1	+13.2
2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	11	0	288	229	10	288	242	7	316	251	10	302	240	10	55.7%	NA	+39.9
2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5	0	289	224	7	252	230	9	295	234	7	292	229	7	56.0%	NA	+37.6
Total	0	0	0	68	68	3	1001	848	40	1943	1695	72	1441	1193	46	1205	1028	36	8602	7399	322	4453	3804	161	53.9%	-2.9	+460.2
Win Pct				50.0%			54.1%			53.4%			54.7%			54.0%			53.8%

 

NBA

My NBA Best Bets have been profitable over my career as a public handicapper but I’ve struggled the last few years and no longer handicap the NBA. However, I also had an NBA only handicapper in the NBA Guru, who had an outstanding track record in his 11 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports. The NBA Guru has a Best Bet record of 1369-1142-39 on Best Bets for +232.15 Stars in 11 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports. The NBA Guru has since moved on and I no longer have an NBA product.

 

NBA Guru Past Performance

Season                        Win                  Loss                Push        Win Pct              Profit

2022-23                        55                    53                      2                 50.9%          -8.25 Stars

2021-22                        96                    75                       3                56.1%        +26.5 Stars

2020-21                       174                  161                     6                 51.9%          -6.0 Stars

2019-20                       121                  104                     1                 53.8%       +12.3 Stars

2018-19                        131                   82                     4                 61.4%       +80.7 Stars

2017-18                        145                  135                     3                51.8%          -9.1 Stars

2016-17                         93                   100                     4                48.2%        -34.4 Stars

2015-16                       104                    71                     1                 59.4%       +53.6 Stars

2014-15                       106                    69                     7                 60.6%       +61.2 Stars

2013-14                       196                  177                     6                 52.5%         +7.9 Stars

2012-13                       148                  115                     2                 56.3%       +47.7 Stars

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11 Seasons                1369                1142                   39               54.5%      +232.15 Stars

DR. BOB NBA BASKETBALL RECORDS