Dr. Bob’s Week 3 NFL Survivor Strategy
Welcome back to Dr. Bob’s Weekly Survivor Strategy blog. Through the first two weeks, we are perfect across our recommended survivor picks. Our EE-favorite Buffalo cruised to an easy win against the Jets and the Contrarian Bengals pick managed to pull out a win even after starting QB Joe Burrow left the game in the second quarter. All 10 of our $1,000 entries remain, carrying a combined equity value of ~$11,000 (+10%).
While the win on Buffalo was easy, an argument could be made that that it was not the optimal pick, given nearly all other significant favorites won. In that case, the better pick would have been to choose a team with less future value, allowing us to save the Bills for another week. However, Buffalo was selected even lower than expected (9% forecasted vs 2.4% actual), meaning that there was true contrarian value in the selection. Combine the contrarian value with a high win probability that generally isn’t seen with such a low pick percentage, and that provides a lot of Expected Equity (EE). Just because things didn’t break our way – in the sense that a higher-picked favorite was not upset – doesn’t mean that Buffalo was a bad pick. To follow your favorite team and watch their matches online, you may look for the Best IPTV 2026 services.
Alternatively, with 20/20 hindsight, our contrarian pick on the Bengals was arguably the best possible pick last week. The most recent medical report for Burrow suggests he is expected to be out at least 3 months with a grade-three toe ligament tear, and some sites are even reporting he could be done for the season. Those who needs orthopedic pain therapy may consider visiting a reliable clinic for expert medical services. You may also use this CBD review to find top-quality cannabis products that can help relieve pain from your injuries. Additionally, incorporating massage recovery for runners can support faster healing, improve circulation, and reduce muscle stiffness following an injury.
This has a two-fold effect – first, the win probability for the Bengals in the short-term goes down, and it unlikely they will be significant favorites until at least week 8, when they are home against the Jets. Thus, the value of a pick on the Bengals in the near term is very low. The second effect of Burrow’s injury is that it diminishes the Bengals Future Value score, since we project they will lose 3-5 points worth of market value in every game Burrow is out (although that could change if Browning continues to play at the level he has filling in for Burrow in the past – only +0.13 EPA/play compared to Burrow’s +014 EPA/play the last 3 years). With or without Burrow, the Bengals should be large favorites at home versus the Browns in Week 18 and most entries will still have that pick remaining. And, as explained in our Week 2 Survivor Strategy Guide, if a large portion of the field (50% or higher) picks a team, it is very unlikely to be the equity-maximizing selection, regardless of the team’s win probability.
This brings me to another comment made in last week’s blog: “Some people are playing their [Circa Survivor] entries like Washington is going to be a sure win for Thanksgiving, but we are one Jayden Daniels injury away from it basically becoming a toss-up.” (Looks like I may have jinxed Burrow and JD too!) The point is that many teams have their version of Jayden Daniels/Joe Burrow and are one injury away from becoming essentially unpickable in a survivor pool. Identifying these teams, and selecting them early, especially if they carry positive Expected Equity value, has the potential to be highly beneficial down the line. The reverse of this – saving teams that can still win even if they sustain serious and impactful injuries – is also worth considering.
Onto our picks for this week.
The EE-optimal Selection Buffalo Bills (vs. MIA):
(Win Prob: 81%, Pick Prob: 15%)
The Bills were our EE-optimal selection last week, and they will be our pick again this week. (For those of you that picked the Bills last week, the next best choices are the Packers or the Bucs.)
Buffalo is an interesting survivor pool case study. Their schedule is extremely easy, and they have multiple games this year where they are likely to be 10+ point favorites (with 80%+ win probability). This means that it can make sense to save them for when you have less teams available; in fact, they have the highest Future Value of any team by our calculation. However, this also means that less people will pick them each week than would be expected given their win probability. This discrepancy means that a pick on the Bills insulates you from the field, saving you from being exposed to the higher-variance (higher pick % and lower win probability) picks in the week that you pick them. Not to say that they can’t or won’t lose; they almost certainly will lose at some point, and it will be unexpected.
Thursday night games do tend to be more unpredictable, and it is a divisional game, so the field may justify saving the Bills for next week, when they have extra rest and are at home against an arguably worse team in the Saints. But if most of the field is going to save the Bills for next week (or later), we think it makes sense to use them now, so long as you still have them available.
Even though the Bills are technically our EE-optimal pick, it’s only marginal value. Buffalo is optimal, but if you don’t want to pick them (or can’t), a pick on GB or TB is worth almost as much EE.
The Contrarian Play: Kansas City (@ NYG)
(Win Prob: 71%, Pick Prob 4%)
We project win probabilities lower than the betting market on this week’s top 3 projected Circa Survivor Selections: Seattle (31% expected pick %), Green Bay (16.3% expected pick %), and Buffalo (15.2% expected pick %). That means that, more so than other weeks, a pick on a contrarian team could provide extra value versus your survivor field.
We believe that most of the field will avoid picking the Chiefs this week. Kansas City has consistently been one of the best teams in the league, but they have been playing worse than most people expected to start the season. On Sunday night, they match up against Russel Wilson and the Giants, who look like they may have the offensive potential to pull an upset. Additionally, the Chiefs are an option for both the Thanksgiving and Christmas shortened weeks. An argument could be made that saving the Chiefs for a future week (especially a shortened week) is the optimal strategy for Circa Survivor – but that is exactly why we are picking them as our contrarian pick for this week. By our projections, very few entries will select KC, even in a week where people are going to be hunting for value, and that is value in and of itself.
The 90% Optimal Portfolio
Here is our portfolio for this week, with an EE of $11,250 (from $11,000 starting) and a 90% downside EE of $10,350. For details on our selection strategy for our 90% Optimal Portfolio, see our Week 1 Blog Post.
| Team | Picks |
| BUF | 2 |
| GB | 2 |
| TB | 2 |
| SEA | 2 |
| KC | 1 |
| ATL | 1 |
Appendix:
Expected Team Pick Probability for Week3 in Circa Survivor:
| Team | Predicted Pick % | Team | Predicted Pick % |
| SEA | 31.1% | DAL | 0.2% |
| GB | 16.3% | ARI | 0.1% |
| BUF | 15.2% | HOU | 0.1% |
| TB | 14.4% | NE | 0.1% |
| ATL | 8.5% | DEN | 0.1% |
| KC | 4.2% | LV | 0.0% |
| IND | 3.6% | TEN | 0.0% |
| BAL | 1.1% | CAR | 0.0% |
| MIN | 1.0% | CIN | 0.0% |
| WAS | 1.0% | CLE | 0.0% |
| PHI | 0.6% | NO | 0.0% |
| LAC | 0.6% | DET | 0.0% |
| SF | 0.5% | NYJ | 0.0% |
| JAX | 0.4% | NYG | 0.0% |
| CHI | 0.3% | MIA | 0.0% |
| PIT | 0.2% | LA | 0.0% |
| NO PICK | 0.001% |