West Region (1) Gonzaga (30-3) Gonzaga has been the 3rd best team in the nation this season in my compensated ratings behind Duke (games with Zion only) and Virginia and the Zags are the only team to beat Duke when the Blue Devils had all of their stars playing. However, the Bulldogs also lost their other two games …
South Region (1) Virginia (29-3) Virginia enters the tournament with the best compensated net efficiency in the nation, although they’d be second to Duke when excluding the Blue Devils’ games without Zion Williamson. Speaking of Duke, two of Virginia’s three losses were to Duke by a combined 12 points, but 3-point variance had a lot to do with …
Midwest Region (1) North Carolina (27-6) North Carolina is a deserving #1 seed and the Tarheels have a pretty easy path to the regional final but their only win against a healthy elite team was at home against Gonzaga in a game they made a randomly high 52% of their 3-point shots. Their two wins against Duke were games …
East Region (1) Duke (29-5) Duke is certainly deserving of the #1 overall seed, as they are 24-1 when they have all of their starters healthy, with their only loss by 2 points to Gonzaga (due to negative 3-point variance) and quality wins over high seeded teams Kentucky, Auburn, Texas Tech, Florida State twice, Virginia twice and North Carolina. …
The last two seasons I’ve asked the NBA Guru to share his thoughts on NBA win total plays he like. His 2016-17 NBA season win totals went 4-0 and the 2017-18 NBA Wins totals were 3-0. The NBA Guru is happy to share his thoughts again on a few 2018-19 NBA season win totals. Once again, these will be considered as Strong Opinions. The …
Pittsburgh Steelers Market Implied Wins: 10.2 The Steelers won 13 games last season but stumbled in the playoffs, a familiar feeling as of late. The Ben Roethlisberger era in Pittsburgh can be split into two sections: his first 7 years averaging 11 wins per season with 3 AFC Titles and the second half of his career averaging 10.4 wins per …
Jacksonville Jaguars Market Implied Wins: 9.1 The Jaguars reached the AFC Championship game in 2017 on the back of their defense, which ranked 2nd in the league in points allowed. The Jacksonville stop unit was led up front by Calais Campbell and earned the nickname Sacksonville with an 8.8% sack rate (2nd). However, much of the damage was against backup quarterbacks and …
New England Patriots Market Implied Wins: 11.2 The Patriots reached the Super Bowl for the second straight season in 2017 but fell victim to their roller coaster secondary in the end. Bill Belichick’s defenses play a ‘bend but don’t break’ scheme finishing top 8 in yards allowed per point allowed in all but one of the last 15 seasons, including …
Los Angeles Chargers Market Implied Wins: 9.1 It’s fair to say the 2017 Chargers were defined by their kicking, an obvious rarity even in a sport called football. Los Angeles was 1-4 in games decided by 3 points including late field goal misses in the first two weeks of the season. The Chargers converted just two-thirds of their field goal attempts, …
The following are the 3 College Season Win Totals Best Bets that I released to my subscribers on Friday morning, August 24 (I added the final one on Thursday the 30th). Due to the past success of my season win totals (31-13-1, including 18-4-1 the last 5 years), the odds on these moved significantly and to the point where …
