I have decided to release one of my NFL season win totals a bit early since I think the line is likely to move against me.
The play below is being posted at no charge but other season win total Best Bets will be reserved for subscribers.
My NFL Best Bets are 182-127-2 (58.9%) the last 3 seasons since I began using models based on advanced play-by-play metrics and the NFL Best Bets were 45-26 (63.3%) last season.
Note: The odds on this play moved this morning after I sent it out to those that subscribed to my NFL service last season.
2-Star Best Bet – New York Giants – Under 6 Wins (-135)
The Giants won 5 games last season and finished 24th in our end of season ratings. I believe they will be significantly worse on both sides of the ball in 2019.
During the last 2 years, Eli Manning played 16 games with Odell Beckham and 15 games without the star wide receiver on the field. The Giants offense averaged 21.6 points per game with Beckham compared to only 16.8 points per game in the games he missed. Beckham is not worth 5 points, but he was a huge factor for this offense and I expect the 38-year-old quarterback to struggle without him, especially considering New York’s other troubles at wide receiver. Golden Tate is suspended for the first four games (pending appeal) and I do not expect him to make a major impact even when he comes back. Tate is a bit overrated and ranks 20th out of the 25 players to see at least 500 targets in expected points added per non-turnover target during the last 5 seasons. Corey Coleman is out for the season with a torn ACL and Sterling Shepard picked up a thumb injury, although it looks like he’ll probably be ready to go for week 1.
The Giants offensive line should be improved this season and Saquon Barkley is an electric talent, but a team’s ability to run the ball does not contribute significantly to overall scoring success. Eli Manning will likely flounder with limited weapons and there’s a decent chance we see Pat Shurmur give rookie Daniel Jones a shot under center, which would decrease New York’s offensive rating further.
Meanwhile, on defense the Giants are without their three best players from a year ago at this point. Defensive tackle Snack Harrison, who led the league in run stop percentage last year for the 5th-straight season, was traded in the middle of last season. New York also traded their best pass rusher, Olivier Vernon, and did not replace him with any player of similar value. The Giants enter this season with one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. Additionally, safety Landon Collins, who’s made 3 consecutive Pro Bowls, is now in Washington. Those 3 players are worth nearly 2.5 points combined according to our metrics. New York did add hybrid defender Jabrill Peppers, but overall we rate their defensive talent last in the league behind the Dolphins and Raiders.
The Giants have the 8th-easiest schedule in 2019, but even after accounting for that, our simulations show 4 wins is more likely than 7. I expect New York to be picking near the top of the draft again and the Giants should really be focused on a rebuild, rather than trying to extend Eli Manning’s career.
Take the Giants Under 6 wins at -140 odds or less for 2-Stars (1-Star at -145 or -150).
Note: I have a book that has Under 6.5 at -160, which is actually better. You can play Under 6.5 up to -180.
Dr Bob Sports NFL Best Bet Service
I had a great 2018 NFL season with the updated version of the model that uses advanced play-by-play metrics with adjustments for personnel.
The 2018 NFL Best Bets were 45-26 for +15.65 Stars while the Strong Opinions were 31-22 for the season.
The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.
2016-18 NFL Best Bets are 182-127-2 (58.9%) – 114-63-2 on sides, 62-57 on totals, 1-2 1st-half totals, 2-3 team totals, 3-1 teasers, 0-1 season win totals.
2016-18 NFL Strong Opinions are 123-93-4 (56.9%) – 54-53-3 sides, 52-35-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-0 1st-half totals, 1-0 Team Totals, 11-4 Post-season prop bets.
Closing Line Value
If you are among those that purchase plays by the week you’d be much better off subscribing to a 4-week or season package, as we are getting a lot of line value releasing Best Bets to subscribers early in the week. In 2018 the average closing line value on our 68 Best Bets (not including the 3 teasers) was +2.8%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 2.8% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.
Dr Bob College Football
My College Football Best Bets are 2113-1728-67 (55%) on a Star Basis for +232.7 Stars Since 1999 (+222.7 Stars on Sides, -32.7 Stars on Totals, and +29.6 Stars on season win totals and futures) and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 637-560-15 (578-498-14 on Sides and 59-62-1 on Totals).
My 2018 College Football Best Bets were 52-35-2 (60%) and 75-49-3 on a Star Basis (2-0 on 3-Stars, 18-14-1 on 2-Stars and 32-21-1 on 1-Stars) for +20.85 Stars of profit (including -0.25 in extra juice). The Strong Opinions were 22-17 for the season.
I finally had a season in which I was even in close games and fumbles and had the positive results that my handicapping deserved after 3 seasons of losing a high percentage of close games (see below).
Unfortunately, my College Season Win Total Best Bets, which were 31-13-1 all-time entering this past season, were 0-4 for -7.77 Stars. But, it was still a solidly profitable season at +13.08 Stars.
Dr Bob Basketball
My Basketball Best Bets were a very profitable +86.7 Stars on all Basketball Best Bets the last two seasons.
My Basketball Best Bets (College and NBA) are a very profitable +435.1 Stars (at -110 odds) the last 21 years and I’m 54.2% winners on my Basketball Best Bets over 30 years for an average profit of +29.5 Stars.
I am a very profitable 393-311-15 (56%) on my College Basketball Bet Bets the last 2 seasons after making changes to my process – most notably releasing most plays in the morning when the lines are weakest.
My NBA Best Bets were a solid 90-76-1 last season. I started the season slowly but rallied with a 51-31-1 run to finish the season.
NBA Guru Basketball
The NBA Guru was 131-82-4 on Best Bets this past season (65-34-4 sides, 47-31 totals, 14-4 on 1st-half sides, 5-13 on 1st-half totals) and 262-164-8 on a Star Basis (all Best Bets have been for 2-Stars) for +80.7 Stars (with an extra -0.9 for added juice).
In 7 seasons with Dr Bob Sports the NBA Guru is 923-749-27 on his Best Bets and 1921-1556-55 on a Star Basis (75-58-1 on 3-Stars and 848-691-26 on 2-Stars) for a profit of 207.6 Stars at -110 odds (with an extra -1.7 for added juice).
Best Bet full-game Sides are 334-274-10
Best Bet full-game Totals are 328-271-7
Best Bet 1st-half Sides are 145-121-7
Best Bet 1st-half Totals are 116-83-3
Playoff series Best Bets are 1-0
Each week during the season I will continue to provide free information on about 50-60 NFL and College games each week.
The Free analysis in the College Football section has been a profitable 1626-1431-62 ATS on all games the last 6 years, including 569-473-22 (54.6%) on games with a predicted difference of 4 points or more from the line.
My Basketball Free Analysis is 700-597-17 (54.0%) the last five seasons and is profitable over 13 seasons since I’ve been posting Free Analysis in basketball.
I hope you have enjoyed the free analysis in previous seasons and will continue to visit weekly this upcoming season. Even if you’re not a gambler you can gain insight into your favorite teams by visiting my Free Analysis pages.
If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] (or just reply to this email).
p.s. Follow me on twitter (@drbobsports) for weekly trends and updates on free plays.