NFL Futures Best Bet (2020)


I have decided to release one of my NFL futures Best Bets a bit early since I think the line is likely to move against us.

The play below is being posted at no charge but other season win total Best Bets will be reserved for subscribers.


My NFL Best Bets are a very profitable 222-166-2 (57.2%) the last 4 seasons, since I began using models based on advanced play-by-play metrics, and the NFL Strong Opinions are 157-116-7 (57.5%) during that time frame.


2016-19 NFL Best Bets are 222-166-2 (57.2%)  – 132-78-2 on Sides, 75-70 on totals, 2-3 1st-half totals, 5-9 team totals, 7-5 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-19 NFL Strong Opinions are 157-116-7 (57.5%) – 66-65-6 sides, 62-43-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-0 1st-half totals, 3-1 Team Totals, 2-1 teasers, 19-5 Post-season prop bets.


Closing Line Value

If you are among those that purchase plays by the week you’d be much better off subscribing to a season package, as we are getting a lot of line value releasing Best Bets to subscribers early in the week, while you can also use systems that let you have the best expert NFL picks to do your betting.

The average closing line value on our NFL Best Bets (not including the teasers and props) is +2.8%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 2.8% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.

The Best Bets beat the closing line 76% of the time last season.

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Note: Refunds will be given should the NFL cancel their season and partial refunds will be given if the season gets cut short.


1-Star Best Bet – Detroit +550 to win the NFC North


Lions Offense

Matt Stafford was great before getting injured last year in his first season with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell – averaging 7.6 yards per pass play on nearly 300 passing attempts. For reference, the Chiefs averaged 7.5 yards per pass play (2nd) in the 2019 season.

Stafford and Bevell were able to attack teams downfield with Kenny Golladay (lead the NFL with 36 deep targets). Stafford also has above average options underneath with Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola, and last year’s first round pick tight end TJ Hockenson – tight ends usually make their biggest jump forward between year 1 and year 2.

The offensive line ranked 17th in pass blocking efficiency last season and I expect they will be around league-average again replacing right tackle Rick Wagner with Halapoulivaati Vaitai and they have plenty of decent options at right guard to take over for Graham Glasgow.

Rookie running back De’Andre Swift should provide an upgrade at that position in an offense that should finish the season around league-average.


Lions Defense

At first glance it might seem like the Lions’ defense could take a step back without Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay, but I think the secondary will be improved this season. Detroit added former Pro Bowl cornerback Desmond Trufant along with third-overall pick in the draft, cornerback Jeff Okudah. Duron Harmon, who played for the excellent New England secondary in 2019, provides an upgrade at safety. I also expect nickelback Justin Coleman to bounce back after allowing 1.45 yards per slot cover snap in 2019, as Coleman surrendered just 1.05 yards per cover snap in the slot the two years prior.

The Lions were unlucky to only force 0.4 interceptions per game in 2019 (last) and they are very likely get more picks in 2020. In fact, over the last 5 seasons, teams that had less than 0.5 interceptions per game go on to average 0.5 more picks per game in the following season.

The front 7 has two really solid players in edge rusher Trey Flowers and linebacker Jamie Collins, both of whom graded in the top 20 at their position by PFF last year.

We think Matt Patricia’s defense should finish just below average this season.


NFC North notes

Green Bay won this division last season with a stellar 13-3 record. However, the Packers were 8-1 in close games last season and four of those wins came against backup quarterbacks so the 13-3 record is definitely fluky. Historically, teams finish around .500 in one-score games regardless of quarterback or team quality so the Packers were more like a 10-6 or 9-7 team than a 13-3 team last season.

According to Sharp Football Analysis, in the last 30 years, there have been 18 teams to improve by six or more wins from one year to the next by winning at least 12 games like Green Bay did in 2019. On average, those 18 teams lost 5.9 more games the following year. The Packers didn’t make any significant off-season addition in free agency or the draft and we think there is a decent chance that they could fall below .500 again like they were in 2018.

Green Bay and Chicago were the 5th and 2nd-luckiest teams respectively scoring touchdowns instead of field goals in the redzone last season (relative to overall offensive quality), a statistic that isn’t very sticky year-to-year.

Interior defender Eddie Goldman opted out for Chicago and he will be tough to replace. Goldman has finished top 10 in run stop percentage each of the past two seasons. The Bears defense also loses Prince Amukamara, who finished 25th among cornerbacks allowing just 1.02 yards per cover snap.

Minnesota finished 5th in fumble luck last year. The Vikings’ +11 turnover margin was the big difference from 2018 (where they finished with a net zero margin).

I believe the loss of wide receiver Steffon Diggs and offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski will be a notable blow for Minnesota’s offense, potentially on the order of 2 to 2.5 points.

On defense, the Vikings lose Pro Bowl edge defender Everson Griffen, interior defender Linval Joseph, and all three starting cornerbacks. Also, their best offseason signing, interior defender Michael Pierce, has opted out.

Mike Zimmer might be the best defensive coach in the league, but this group will likely regress towards league-average. Minnesota finished 8-8 in 2018 and should regress back to around .500 without the turnover luck this season and with less talent on both sides of the ball.



Detroit went 3-12-1 last season but they were 3-4-1 in Stafford’s starts and could have easily been better than that. The Lions blew a 15-point fourth quarter lead to the Cardinals, lost to the Chiefs due to a 100-yard fumble return touchdown, blew a 9-point fourth quarter lead to the Packers, and lost another one-score game in which they out-gained the Raiders by a full yard per play.

Because the Lions finished last in their division, they will face an easier schedule. Detroit’s extra opponents that the rest of the division won’t face this season are Arizona/Washington giving them a clear schedule advantage over the Packers and Vikings, who face San Francisco/Philadelphia and Seattle/Dallas respectively.

Minnesota and Green Bay are also unlucky to be scheduled to face two opponents coming off a bye (rather than one or zero).

Our projections currently have the Lions winning a very close division with the win count finishing Detroit 8.3, Minnesota 8.1, Chicago 8.0, and Green Bay 7.5. I would agree with those that feel the Packers’ projection looks a little low for a team led by Aaron Rodgers, but the Lions would still have a 25% chance to win the division even if we assume all the teams are projected to finish exactly 8-8. If you want to add excitement to the football season, check out UFABET เดิมพันฟุตบอลสุดมันส์.

The current odds are +550 (15.4% implied probability to win the division) and I would play Detroit to win their division for 1-Star at +400 (20% implied probability) or better.

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Note: Refunds will be given should the NFL cancel their season and partial refunds will be given if the season gets cut short.

If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected].

p.s. Follow me on twitter (@drbobsports) for weekly trends and updates on free plays.

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