NFL Preseason Week 2 Angle – 2021

Winning preseason games often comes down to which coach/team is more motivated to win and the second week of the preseason offers a good investment opportunity based on motivation. In general, most NFL coaches don’t really care about winning a preseason game, but I’ve found that teams that lose their first preseason game have been good bets against teams that already have a win under their belt, which makes them even less likely to care about winning.

Teams playing their 2nd preseason game that lost their preseason opener are 104-65-3 Against The Spread (ATS) since 1994 when facing teams coming off a win in their preseason opener.

Situations are only meaningful if they make sense and that’s a pretty solid situation that makes sense to me since it speaks to a team’s motivation, which is a key factor in preseason games.

A subset of that situation is an even better 62-16-1 ATS and I’ve posted the qualifying plays each year since 2014. The qualifying games are not likely to continue to win at such a high percentage but the record since 2014, when I started posting the plays, is 17-6. Let’s hope for more of the same this year.

Note: Underdogs of 3 points or more are 23-3 ATS and 17-9 straight-up when qualifying in this angle.  

This year’s qualifying plays to that 62-16-1 ATS subset are:  

 

Thursday, August 19

Philadelphia (+1.5/+2) over New England (LOST)

 

Saturday, August 21

Green Bay (+2) over NY Jets (LOST)

Seattle (+6) over Denver (LOST)

L.A. Rams (+7) over Las Vegas (WON)

 

Sunday, August 22

San Francisco (-4.5) over L.A. Chargers (WON)

2021-22 Best Bet Subscription Services

2020 Football Best Bets were 87-55-3 (61.3%)

The football season is approaching and the summer has been spent updating the models that have produced profitable results over many years and that led to a very profitable 87-55-3 (61.3%) record on the 2020 Football Best Bets (NFL and College combined). All of my 2020-21 Football and Basketball Best Bets were a combined 252-186-6 for 57.5% winners, as the Best Bets based on the new College Basketball Model were 165-131-3 (55.7%) despite winning only 40% of the close games (more details below).

Note: I didn’t do the NBA last season and will once again skip the NBA so I can spend more time with my family once March Madness is over. The NBA Guru, who has contributed his Best Bets to my clients for the past 9 years with great success (54.6% winners and +213.9 Stars of profit) is undecided if he will continue his service in 2021-22 so no packages include the NBA as of now.

 

NFL Best Bets Service

The NFL Best Bets are now 281-193-2 (59.3%) while the NFL Strong Opinions are 182-144-8 (55.8%) in 5 seasons since using a model that is based on advanced metrics derived from play-by-play data.

The Best Bet sides have been extremely good, at 159-88-2 (64.4%) over all 5 seasons, and the Best Bet totals have been 65-46 (58.6%) the last 3 seasons since improving the weather adjustments.

That model continues to improve as the play-by-play data gets more detailed (allowing for more predictive metrics to be added) and last season’s NFL Best Bets were an incredibly good 59-27 (69%), which was helped a bit by winning more close games than we lost.

It’s highly unlikely that the incredible win percentage from 2020 can be replicated but winning 59% of Best Bets and 56% of Strong Opinions are 5 seasons is strong evidence that the NFL Best Bets are likely to be solidly profitable again in 2021.

 

The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.

 

2016-20 NFL Best Bets are 281-193-2 (59.4%)  – 159-88-2 on Sides, 96-83 on totals, 6-3 1st-half totals, 8-11 team totals, 11-7 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-20 NFL Strong Opinions are 182-144-8 (55.8%) – 78-81-7 sides, 67-50-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-1 1st-half totals, 4-4 Team Totals, 2-1 teasers, 26-6 Post-season prop bets.

 

Closing Line Value The average closing line value on our NFL Best Bets in the 2020 season was +3.4%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 3.4% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model. The Best Bets beat the closing line 79% of the time this season.

You can subscribe to my NFL season package for $1295.

The NFL and College Football combination package is just $1995.

I also have a package that includes my College Basketball Best Bets season package with the NFL and College Football package, which will save you another $300.

You can subscribe to my Dr. Bob Football & Basketball package for $2995.  

Note: If the season is cut short refunds for the remainder of the season will be issued.

 

College Football Best Bets Service

My College Football Best Bets are 2188-1810-75 (55%) on a Star Basis for +223.6 Stars Since 1999 and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 724-622-18 (625-533-16 on Sides and 99-89-2 on Totals).

 

2020 College Season Recap

My 2020 College Best Bets were just 28-28-3 for -4.9 Stars (0-1 on 3-Stars, 8-7 on 2-Stars, 20-20-3 on 1-Stars with -0.15 of juice) and my Strong Opinions were 25-19-2 for the season (14-12-2 sides, 11-7 totals).
 
The Best Bets were just 2-5-3 on toss-up games (instead of 50%) and with 2 undeserved losses against zero lucky wins this season (my first college season without a lucky win). The Best Bets were just 28-28-3 but winning those two games I certainly deserved to win and going 3-4-3 on toss-up games instead of 2-5-3, would have resulted in a decent 31-25-3 record (55.3%), which is right at my all-time win percentage in college football. The Strong Opinions were 25-19-2 (57%), so overall my level of handicapping in 2020 was pretty solid, especially considering the amount of late-breaking news due to the Covid pandemic.
 
I’ve had seasons when the luck has been on my side too and I won more close games than I lost in the NFL in 2020, which was incredibly good (59-27 for 69% on Best Bets), so no complaints about the 2020 football season overall (87-55-3 on all Football Best Bets), although I suppose the few of you that didn’t have the NFL package have some complaints.  
 
 
 
I also have a package that includes my College Basketball Best Bets season package with the NFL and College Football package, which will save you another $300.
 
 
Note: If the season is cut short refunds for the remainder of the season will be issued.
 

College Basketball Best Bets Service

College Basketball Best Bets: 976-808-29 on a Star Basis for +81.05 Stars the last 4 seasons!

I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+368.8 Stars the last 23 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting. The first season using that predictive matchup model produced very good results on Best Bets (55.7%) despite winning only 40% of the close games (bets decided by less than 3 points).

 

2020-21 College Basketball Season Recap

Best Bets were 165-131-3 and Opinions were 153-131-5 Best Bets finished the season on an 87-53 run and were 165-131-3 (55.7%) for the season despite being just 18-27-3 on games decided by less than 3 points and the average line differential on the 299 Best Bets is +1.81 points, which is very good (projects to 57.1% winners). The Opinions were a profitable 153-131-5 for the season.

 

Closing Line Value:

Most of the plays are released in the morning to take advantage of softer lines and the release line on the Best Bets beat the closing line 79% of the time while the average closing line value on the 299 Best Bets was 0.99 points and 3.56% towards your chance of winning.

The results of the 2020-21 Best Bets based on the closing line would have still been 55.2% winners, which is not much lower than the actual Best Bet win percentage of 55.7%, but that small difference was a function of how few close games we won last season. In a normal season the difference between betting games as they are being released using our text service and betting them later would be greater – although still profitable.

The Opinions also had significant closing line value, as the totals beat the closing line 83% of the time with an average closing line value of 4.82% per bet while the side Opinions beat the closing line 72% of the time with an average CLV of 2.04%.

I realize that my reputation and following is part of the reason that the plays achieved closing line value, but the amount of CLV is an indication that the model is on the right side more often than not and I expect that to be the case going forward.

 

Best Bets (120-98-3 for +7.9 Stars, +1.49 average line differential)

Extra Game Best Bets (45-33 for +8.75 Stars, +2.71 Avg. Line Diff)

Side Opinions (67-56-3, +0.48 Avg. Line Diff)

Totals Opinions (85-75-2, +2.78 Avg. Line Diff)

Futures Plays (0-1 for -0.50 Stars)

 

More information on the new College Basketball model.

You can subscribe to the College Basketball season package for $1295.

View All Dr. Bob Sports Best Bet subscription packages

 

NFL Free Analysis

Check out the NFL Free Analysis page for in-depth analysis of each week’s NFL games, with recommendations on spread winners and over/unders. My model’s predicted spread and total is included in every write-up.

College Football Free Analysis

Predictions on College games that are not Best Bets are posted on the College Football Free analysis pages.

The record on all Free Analysis sides is now 2064-1856-73 ATS since 2013, which is very good picking nearly every game over 8 years. The Free Analysis sides in which my predicted margin was 4 points or more away from the line are a profitable 688-587-27.

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