Winning preseason games often comes down to which coach/team is more motivated to win and the second week of the preseason offers a good investment opportunity based on motivation. In general, most NFL coaches don’t really care about winning a preseason game, but I’ve found that teams that lose their first preseason game have been good bets against teams that already have a win under their belt, which makes them even less likely to care about winning.
Teams playing their 2nd preseason game that lost their preseason opener are 104-62-3 Against The Spread (ATS) since 1994 when facing teams coming off a win in their preseason opener.
Situations are only meaningful if they make sense and that’s a pretty solid situation that makes sense to me since it speaks to a team’s motivation, which is a key factor in preseason games.
A subset of that situation is an even better 62-15-1 ATS and I’ve posted the qualifying plays each of the last 6 years. The qualifying games are not likely continue to win at such a high percentage but the record the last 6 years since I started posting the plays is 17-5. Let’s hope for more of the same this year.
This year’s only qualifying play to that 62-15-1 ATS subset is:
Saturday, August 17
Indianapolis (-2.5/-3) over Cleveland (Lost)
Dr Bob Sports NFL Best Bet Service
I had a great 2018 NFL season with the updated version of the model that uses advanced play-by-play metrics with adjustments for personnel.
The 2018 NFL Best Bets were 45-26 for +15.65 Stars while the Strong Opinions were 31-22 for the season.
The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.
2016-18 NFL Best Bets are 182-127-2 (58.9%) – 114-63-2 on sides, 62-57 on totals, 1-2 1st-half totals, 2-3 team totals, 3-1 teasers, 0-1 season win totals.
2016-18 NFL Strong Opinions are 123-93-4 (56.9%) – 54-53-3 sides, 52-35-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-0 1st-half totals, 1-0 Team Totals, 11-4 Post-season prop bets.
Closing Line Value
If you are among those that purchase plays by the week you’d be much better off subscribing to a 4-week or season package, as we are getting a lot of line value releasing Best Bets to subscribers early in the week. In 2018 the average closing line value on our 68 Best Bets (not including the 3 teasers) was +2.8%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 2.8% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model.
Dr Bob College Football
My College Football Best Bets are 2113-1728-67 (55%) on a Star Basis for +232.7 Stars Since 1999 (+222.7 Stars on Sides, -32.7 Stars on Totals, and +29.6 Stars on season win totals and futures) and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 637-560-15 (578-498-14 on Sides and 59-62-1 on Totals).
My 2018 College Football Best Bets were 52-35-2 (60%) and 75-49-3 on a Star Basis (2-0 on 3-Stars, 18-14-1 on 2-Stars and 32-21-1 on 1-Stars) for +20.85 Stars of profit (including -0.25 in extra juice). The Strong Opinions were 22-17 for the season.
I finally had a season in which I was even in close games and fumbles and had the positive results that my handicapping deserved after 3 seasons of losing a high percentage of close games (see below).
Unfortunately, my College Season Win Total Best Bets, which were 31-13-1 all-time entering this past season, were 0-4 for -7.77 Stars. But, it was still a solidly profitable season at +13.08 Stars.
Dr Bob Basketball
My Basketball Best Bets were a very profitable +86.7 Stars on all Basketball Best Bets the last two seasons.
My Basketball Best Bets (College and NBA) are a very profitable +435.1 Stars (at -110 odds) the last 21 years and I’m 54.2% winners on my Basketball Best Bets over 30 years for an average profit of +29.5 Stars.
I am a very profitable 393-311-15 (56%) on my College Basketball Bet Bets the last 2 seasons after making changes to my process – most notably releasing most plays in the morning when the lines are weakest.
My NBA Best Bets were a solid 90-76-1 last season. I started the season slowly but rallied with a 51-31-1 run to finish the season.
NBA Guru Basketball
The NBA Guru was 131-82-4 on Best Bets this past season (65-34-4 sides, 47-31 totals, 14-4 on 1st-half sides, 5-13 on 1st-half totals) and 262-164-8 on a Star Basis (all Best Bets have been for 2-Stars) for +80.7 Stars (with an extra -0.9 for added juice).
In 7 seasons with Dr Bob Sports the NBA Guru is 923-749-27 on his Best Bets and 1921-1556-55 on a Star Basis (75-58-1 on 3-Stars and 848-691-26 on 2-Stars) for a profit of 207.6 Stars at -110 odds (with an extra -1.7 for added juice).
Best Bet full-game Sides are 334-274-10
Best Bet full-game Totals are 328-271-7
Best Bet 1st-half Sides are 145-121-7
Best Bet 1st-half Totals are 116-83-3
Playoff series Best Bets are 1-0
Each week during the season I will continue to provide free information on about 50-60 NFL and College games each week.
The Free analysis in the College Football section has been a profitable 1626-1431-62 ATS on all games the last 6 years, including 569-473-22 (54.6%) on games with a predicted difference of 4 points or more from the line.
My Basketball Free Analysis is 700-597-17 (54.0%) the last five seasons and is profitable over 13 seasons since I’ve been posting Free Analysis in basketball.
I hope you have enjoyed the free analysis in previous seasons and will continue to visit weekly this upcoming season. Even if you’re not a gambler you can gain insight into your favorite teams by visiting my Free Analysis pages.
If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] (or just reply to this email).
p.s. Follow me on twitter (@drbobsports) for weekly trends and updates on free plays.