Game Analysis

Lean – Over (55.5) – USC (-6.5) vs TCU

USC’s offense averaged 7.4 yards per play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. However, they started the season with over 1,400 yards at 11.7 yppl against Missouri State and Georgia Southern and I rated the Trojans’ offense at 1.9 yppl better than average after adjusting for the outliers.

USC will be without their top 3 pass-catchers as wide receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, along with TE Lake McRee, have all opted out to prepare for the NFL draft process. Lemon and Lane combined for 1901 yards at 10.2 yards per target while the other Trojans’ wide receivers combined to average 9.2 YPT. Not having those top 2 wide receivers will also allow TCU to move a safety into run support more often. I value the 3 lost receivers at 4.0 points. USC’s offense still rates at 1.4 yppl better than average without those receivers, as the rushing attack is still 1.1 yards per rushing play better than average and the Trojans always have excellent depth at wide receiver (and have performed well in bowl games without NFL bound receivers in recent years).

TCU’s defense was 0.5 yards per play better than average during the regular season and they should be at full strength with star safety Bud Clark expected to play after missing the final two regular season games. I project 475 total yards at 6.8 yppl for USC in this game, with a boost from playing in a covered stadium.

TCU’s offense rates at 0.7 yppl better than average but I have them rated as average without quarterback Josh Hoover, who averaged 7.4 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback. TCU will also be without #2 receiver Jordan Dwyer due to injury but Dwyer’s 8.6 yards per target was lower than the average of the TCU receivers and the next 3 wide receivers on the depth chart (excluding leading receiver McAlister) combined for 9.0 yards per target.

Former Vanderbilt starter Kenny Seals will get the start for the Horned Frogs, but Seals has averaged only 5.4 yards on his 754 career pass plays and averaged only 5.8 yppp in his best season (2020). TCU’s offensive system and receivers are better than what Seals had at Vanderbilt but I still can’t assume he’ll be better than an average FBS quarterback – even in a good system.

USC’s defense was also 0.5 yppl better than average in the regular season but the Trojans will be down 4 starters and another key contributor. Safeties Fitzgerald (All-American) and Ramsey will not play, along with LB Gentry and defensive ends Lucas and Stewart (no starts by had 7.5 total tackles for loss). I value those players as worth a combined 5.5 points. I rate the USC defense at 0.2 yppl worse than average for this game and project 390 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Horned Frogs. That includes a bit of a deduction for TCU OC Kendal Briles not calling plays in this game (he left for South Carolina).

I would have predicted 64 total points for this game with no adjustments. TCU’s loss of QB Hoover is pretty much evened out by all the losses on USC’s defense and I don’t think the Trojans’ offense will fall off as much as the market is suggesting, as there is always plenty of quality depth at the receiving position. I favor USC by 6.5 points with a total of 61.3 total points. I’ll Lean Over 57 points or less.