Game Analysis

MISSISSIPPI (-17)  39   Tulane  21

Tulane is not a good team and the Green Wave already lost in Oxford to Ole Miss by a score of 10-45 while being dominated from the line of scrimmage 282 at 4.2 yards per play to 548 yards at 7.9 yppl.

Tulane is just 0.1 yppl better than average on offense and they’re average defensively after compensating for opponents faced. The Green Wave are lucky to be here, as they only beat North Texas in the AAC Championship game because of a +5 in turnover margin (outgained 348 at 4.8 yppl to 418 yards at 6.1 yppl).

Ole Miss is elite offensively and 0.5 yppl better than average on defense and my math model projects a 20-point Rebels’ win with a 544 yards (7.4 yppl) to 327 yards (5.2 yppl) advantage from the line of scrimmage.

The question is how much Lane Kiffin calling plays is worth and I deducted a couple of points for that. Kiffin’s departure also adds variance and I don’t recommend betting on this game.