Game Analysis

Fresno State (-5.5/-6) vs Miami-Ohio

Miami-Ohio’s offense averaged 5.6 yards per play in 12 games against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl to an average team. Starting quarterback Dequan Finn decided to leave the team after week 11 to focus on preparing for the NFL draft (despite having no chance of being drafted in my opinion – unless he’s going to try to be a receiver). Senior Henry Hesson got the first chance to replace Finn but he was terrible and freshman Thomas Gotkowski performed pretty well over the final 3 games – averaging 7.2 yards per pass play and adding 102 yards on 16 runs. Both quarterbacks played in the MAC Championship game, but Hesson was still terrible (3.7 yards per pass play on 23 pass plays) and Gotkowski is listed as the starter on the bowl depth chart. I don’t expect Gotkowski to be as good as Finn, who was 0.1 yppp better than average (7.2 yppp against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB), as Gotkowski’s 15.7 yards per completion is unlikely to continue and his 50.0% completion percentage is more indicative of his performance level. However, Hesson was so bad (33.8% completions against FBS teams) that the team’s completion percentage against FBS opponents was just 50.3% and Gotkowski should be able to play at the average level of the 3 quarterbacks – which makes the Redhawks’ offense still 0.6 yppl worse than average (they were -0.4 yppl with Finn).

Miami WR Kam Perry has declared his intention to enter the transfer portal and he’s extremely valuable given his nation’s best 23.0 yards per catch and 9.6 yards per target on 88 targets (vs FBS opponents). The rest of Miami’s wide receivers combined for just 7.2 YPT and not having Perry would be a significant blow to the Redhawks’ offense. However, Perry is listed as a starter on the depth chart while others intending to transfer, or that have opted-out, are not listed on DC, which indicates that the depth chart has been updated. It’s still possible that Perry will not play but he travelled with the team and I’ll assume that he will play.

Fresno State has a solid defense that allowed just 21.3 points and 5.0 yppl to FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team (adjusted for facing backup quarterbacks against Boise State and San Jose State). That unit looks pretty much intact aside from a couple of injuries (LB Thunderbird has been out and S Wilson is listed as a starter on the depth chart after missing the regular season finale). I project just 268 total yards at 4.6 yppl if Perry does not play for Miami and 284 yards at 4.9 yppl if Perry plays (resulting in a difference of 1.7 points). For now, I’ll assume that Perry is 50/50 to play.

Fresno State was 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively this season as the Bulldogs struggled to throw the ball effectively with E.J. Warner at quarterback. Warner was 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average, which prompted a late season change to Carson Conklin. However, Conklin was much worse, as he averaged only 3.2 yppp on 92 pass plays in 3 games against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. The coaching staff wisely went back to Warner, the better of two evils, in the final two games as they tried to secure a spot in the MWC Championship game, but now Conklin is listed on the depth chart above Warner – although with an “or” designation – and I suspect that either or both will play in this game. I’ll make no adjustment to Fresno’s team yppp rating, but they’d likely be much worse if Conklin gets most of the snaps.

Miami has a good defense that was 0.2 yppl better than average in the regular season. However, that unit will be without DE Trick and LB Hondru (neither is on the bowl depth chart), who combined for 142 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 8 other tackles for loss and 10 passes defended. Those two are worth 2.3 points. I project Fresno to gain 332 yards at 5.1 yppl in this game based on Warner getting the same percentage of the team’s pass plays as he had in the regular season (73%).

There’s a lot of variance in projecting this game, as Fresno’s two quarterbacks have been very different in effectiveness during the regular season and it is uncertain how many snaps each will get given that they’re listed as co-starters. With Miami WR Perry now expected to play and Fresno QB Warner getting 73% of the pas plays I would get Fresno by 3.1 points and a total of 42.5 points. The Bulldogs do apply to a 50-9-1 ATS bowl situation and I want no part of this game.