Game Analysis

Lean – Nebraska (+14.5)  22   Utah  31

Nebraska’s offense put up decent numbers over the course of the season, but that unit was really inconsistent and now are without their star running back Emmett Johnson (1451 yards at 5.8 ypr) and starting quarterback Dylan Raiola. Raiola was injured in week 10 and is now expected to transfer, which leaves the keys to the offense in the hands of TJ Lateef. Lateef had a great first start against UCLA (13 of 15 passing for 205 yards and no sacks) but he struggled against Penn State and Iowa (3.8 yards per pass play in those games) and will likely struggle in this game. Backup running backs Mozee and Nelson have just 142 rushing yards on 34 runs between them (4.2 ypr) and I rate Nebraska’s offense at 0.6 yards per play worse than average for this game (they were +0.3 yppl in the regular season).

Utah’s defense was not as good as usual this season (just 0.5 yppl better than average) and that unit won’t be at full strength without injured star DE John Henry Daley (2nd Team All-American with 11.5 sacks and 6 other tackles for loss) and DE Logan Fano (4.5 sacks), who opted out. Those two are worth 0.4 yppl and 2.4 points (most of it being Daley). I project 333 yards at 5.1 yppl for Nebraska in this game, which includes a boost for playing in a covered stadium.

Utah’s offense is lead by dynamic quarterback Devon Dampier, who is a better than average passer (+0.9 yppp rating) and an elite runner (753 yards at 6.5 yards per). The Utes will be down both of their starting tackles, including Outland Trophy winner Spencer Fano, and leading WR Ryan Davis (not worth that much) and I rate the Utah offense at 0.7 yppl better than average heading into this game.

Nebraska’s defense was 0.3 yppl better than average in the regular season and they’re intact aside from edge rusher Dasan McCullough, who has opted out and is worth 0.6 points. The Cornhuskers had a good pass defense (aside from the final two games) and ended up at 0.8 yards per pass play better than average. The run defense, however, is horrible (5.7 yprp allowed) and that’s a problem against a very good Utah ground game. I project 443 yards at 6.5 yppl for the Utes in this game.

Utah has a significant edge from the line of scrimmage and in projected turnovers (1.6 points worth) but Nebraska has better special teams units (0.9 points better) and were #12 in the nation in net field position. Overall, the math favors Utah by just 12.5 points and the situation strongly favors Nebraska. The Cornhuskers apply to a 61-20-4 ATS bowl situation and Utah applies to a 15-56-1 ATS minor bowl big favorite angle.