Game Analysis

Indiana (-7)  28   Alabama  20

It may seem strange the Indiana is favored by a touchdown over Alabama but the Hoosiers should be favored by more than 7 points based on my math, which favors Indiana by 8.5 points with 48.3 total points.

Alabama’s offense depends on the arm of Ty Simpson, as the Crimson Tide simply don’t have their usual strong rush attack this season (4.2 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.1 yprp to an average team). Simpson averaged 6.5 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Simpson only threw 5 interceptions but he should have thrown more based on his 38 passes defended against (which projects to 7.8 interceptions).

Indiana has an elite defense that allowed just 11.8 points per game and rates at 1.3 yppl better than average. The Hoosiers have proven themselves against better offensive teams by holding Oregon and Ohio State to an average of just 15 points. I project 322 yards at 5.3 yppl for Alabama in this game.

Indiana’s offense averaged 6.8 yppl against FBS teams with starters in the game against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average offense and their rating would be higher if they didn’t go run-heavy in blowout wins. Indiana ran the ball 58% of the time but just 52% of the time when the games were competitive and I expect more passing than normal in this game, which will boost their offense a bit. I project 386 yards at 6.4 yppl for the Hoosiers in this game against an Alabama defense that was 1.1 yppl better than average this season (5.1 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense).

Kalen DeBoer’s teams have a strong tendency to play their best against better teams, as he is now 13-3 straight up and 14-2 ATS when favored by less than 3 points, a pick, or underdog (2-1 this year with a split of 2 games against Georgia and a win over Oklahoma in their first playoff game). However, Indiana’s Curt Cignetti is 33-17 ATS in his career in all games at the FBS level and the Hoosiers are 2-0 straight up (both as underdogs) against the elite teams that they’ve played this season (at Oregon and vs Ohio State).