Game Analysis

OKLAHOMA (-1)  21   Alabama  18

Alabama outplayed Oklahoma 5.3 yards per play for 4.5 yppl in the Crimson Tide’s 21-23 home loss to the Sooners in week 12. The reason Alabama lost that game was a -3 in turnover margin, including one that was returned for an Oklahoma touchdown. While it’s likely that the turnovers are not a factor in this game (I project Oklahoma with 0.2 more turnovers) I don’t believe that Alabama will have the yards per play advantage that they had in the first meeting.

Heavy winds are expected in Norman on Friday night (15 to 18 mph with gusts into the high 20s). The wind will likely affect Alabama’s pass-heavy offense more than it will affect an Oklahoma team that should be able to run the ball at a decent rate, as Alabama is a mediocre running team and Oklahoma has the best run defense in the nation in terms of compensated yards per rushing play allowed.

Alabama’s offense was 0.8 yards per play better than average this season, averaging just 5.6 yppl but doing so against FBS teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average attack. Oklahoma’s defense, meanwhile, is 1.9 yppl better than average, yielding just 4.5 yppl with starters in the game against FBS opponents that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defense (excluding the Kent State game in which the Flashes held out their starting quarterback). The Sooners completely dominated the 4 mediocre to bad offensive teams that they faced (Temple, Kent State, Auburn and LSU) and weren’t as good relatively against the 7 better than average attacks that they faced – rating at 1.5 yppl better than average in those games (0.4 yppl worse than their overall rating).

Alabama’s offense, meanwhile, was relatively worse against good defensive teams, as they averaged 7.5 yppl against bad to slightly better than average defensive teams ULM, Wisconsin, Vandy, and Tennessee while averaging only 21.5 points and 4.8 yppl in 8 games against good defensive teams. Those 8 teams would combine to allow 4.5 yppl to an average team so Bama was just 0.3 yppl better than average against good defensive teams, which is 0.5 yppl worse than their overall offensive rating. Oklahoma’s defense was 0.4 yppl worse than their overall rating against good defensive teams, however, so Alabama should come pretty close to the 301 yards at 4.45 yppl that I project for this game in the heavy winds.

Oklahoma’s offense sputtered at times against good defensive teams but the Sooners rate at 0.5 yppl better than average after accounting for the tough schedule of defensive units that they faced. Alabama’s defense has been very good against the pass (5.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.0 yppp against an average defense) but the Tide don’t defend the run nearly as well (5.0 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yprp) and Oklahoma is projected to average 4.9 yprp in this game, which gives them a huge advantage in the wind against an Alabama offense projected to average only 3.3 yprp.

Oklahoma’s offense was 0.4 yppl better against the 7 good defensive teams that they faced (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 4.5 yppl), which is just 0.1 yppl worse than their overall rating.

I don’t think either team will throw the ball well in the wind against the good pass defenses (5.4 yppp projected for Alabama and 5.2 yppp projected for Oklahoma), but the Sooners should have significantly more success running the ball and they’ll likely be enjoying better field position (#8 in net starting field position while Bama is #102) and they have an elite place-kicker while Alabama has had negative field goal value this season.

I favor Oklahoma by 3.4 points with 39.0 total points with the weather adjustments helping the Sooners a bit (and obviously lowering the total points by a couple of points).