Game Analysis

Note: The Under has moved far out of range and there is no play at the current total of 52 points.

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (55.5 -105) – Pittsburgh (-11.5)  29   East Carolina  20

My math would favor Pitt by 10.3 points (52.6 total points) with no adjustments (other than downgrading Pitt’s offense for starting Heintschel at quarterback since week 6) and ECU is losing more with opt outs and transfers than the Panters are.

Pitt’s offense was just 0.2 yards per play better than average for the season and is worse since Mason Heintschel took over at quarterback, as the Panthers have been just average in 8 games since switching quarterbacks (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). Pitt won’t have versatile running back Desmond Reid, who has opted-out. Reid has been banged up most of the season and his rushing numbers are down (just 4.6 yrp on 60 runs) but Reid is an elite receiver out of the backfield and averaged 11.7 yards on 27 targets this season (and 11.1 YPT on 73 targets in 2024). The other two backs have combined for 4.8 ypr but just 5.2 YPT on 45 targets. That’s a difference of about 0.4 yards per pass play for the season, which works out to 1.6 points.

East Carolina looks like they’ll have their defense intact, although they’ll be without their coordinator, and that unit rates at 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defense). So, don’t be fooled by the 20.3 points per game that the Pirates allowed. They’re not a good defense.

East Carolina’s offense is also not as good as it seems, as their 6.0 yppl against FBS teams came against opposing defenses that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack. ECU will be without starting quarterback Katin Houser, WR Yannick Smith and TE Jayvontay Conner, who have all entered the transfer portal and will not play. Obviously, not having Houser is a blow to the offense but Smith led the team in yards per target (10.1 YPT) and success rate and Conner averaged 9.5 yards on his 35 targets this season.

Replacing Houser, who averaged 7.4 yards per pass play will likely be a combination of veteran Mike Wright and freshman Chaston Ditta. Wright is not a good passer but he is a good runner while Ditta’s style fits the offense a bit better but is not considered a good runner. I project the offense to be 4.4 points worse without Houser and two very effective pass-catchers.

Pitt’s defense was 1.1 yppl better than average this season but the Panthers aren’t going to be as good without LB Kyle Louis, who has opted out to focus on the NFL draft process. Louis is worth 1.4 points based on my algorithm, but it looks as if fellow star LB Rasheem Biles will play, as he’s listed on the depth chart (Louis is not). Biles missed 3 games this season and still led the Panthers in tackles and tackles for loss.

There were a few other minor adjustments and the math favors Pitt by 12.1 points with just 49.2 total points. The losses impact the offenses significantly more than they impact the defenses and I think the total is high even if everyone was playing. Pitt does apply to a negative 15-55-1 ATS big favorite in a minor bowl game situation so I have no interest in the side.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 55 points or more (Strong Opinion to 54).