Game Analysis

Lean – Navy (-7) vs Cincinnati

The math would favor Cincinnati by 5.4 points with everyone playing but Cincinnati will be without 8 starters, including QB Brendan Sorsby, and some key reserves (including CB Arnold, who broke up 13 passes).

I get Navy by 7.6 points (and 53.3 total points) after adjusting for all of those losses, and I’ll lean with Navy -7 or less given that the 3 military academies are a combined 43-15 ATS in bowl games. That record is an even better 28-5 ATS for the teams with a season win percentage of greater than 0.667, including 13-0 ATS since 2013 (Navy is 10-2).