Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved since I sent this out to subscribers on Thursday morning (due to NC State RB Smothers’ transfer portal news), but I still Lean with Memphis.

Lean – Memphis (+4.5)  28   NC State  27

Memphis lost their head coach and offensive coordinator to Arkansas but the veterans on the team rallied the troops, led by senior quarterback Brendon Lewis. With no reported opt outs and just one injury of note (RT Travis Burke), the Tigers should be able to overcome the coaching change and at least keep it close against an NC State team that may be without their leading rusher Hollywood Smothers, who may not play after declaring his intention to enter the transfer portal when it opens in January.

Lewis has a solid season, as he completed 70% of his passes (although for just 6.2 yards per pass play) and ran for 840 yards on 110 runs with just 6 interceptions thrown. The Tigers averaged over 200 yards both on the ground and through the air, but their 6.2 yards per play was against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl. NC State’s defense has allowed 6.5 yppl to FBS opponents and has been 0.4 yppl worse than average after compensating for opposing offenses faced so the Tigers should move the ball pretty well. I project 384 yards at 5.7 yppl for Memphis.

NC State’s offense is 0.6 yppl better than average and the Wolfpack should move the ball at a decent clip against a Memphis defense that rates as average – very good defending the run and worse than average defending the pass. I project NC State with 385 yards at 6.3 yppl.

The Wolfpack have the overall advantage from the line of scrimmage, but Memphis has an edge in special teams (1.5 points) and in projected turnovers (0.8 points) and overall I get the NC State by just 1.2 points (assuming NC State RB Smothers is 50/50 to play). The Tigers, however, apply to a 58-23 ATS bowl situation that plays on underdogs with the better defense and I’ll lean with Memphis at +3 or more.