Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved significantly since sending this analysis to my subscribers, as Troy is now a 3 point favorite. Still not a Lean on either side for me.

Jacksonville State (+1.5)  25   Troy  25

The line on this game is spot on but a pretty good bowl situation favors Jacksonville State.

Troy quarterback Goose Crowder has been upgraded to probable, but he averaged just 5.5 yards per pass play against FBS defenses that would combine to allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Troy’s leading rusher Tae Meadows hit the transfer portal but he averaged just 3.7 yards per rush against FBS opponents (he had 186 yards on 23 runs against an FCS opponent), which is slightly less than the other backs, so I made no adjustment for that loss. Troy is a bad offensive team that averaged just 4.7 yards per play against FBS teams that would allow (5.9 yppl to an average team) – and I rate that unit at 1.0 yppl worse than average with Crowder behind center.

Jacksonville State’s defense rated at 0.7 yards per play worse than average, as the Gamecocks have allowed 6.0 yppl to FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average FBS defense an that unit has a bit of an edge in this game. I project 371 yards at 5.7 yppl for Troy in what is expected to be very still conditions in Montgomery on Tuesday night.

Jacksonville State started the season with the horrible Gavin Wimsatt at quarterback and that unit improved when Caden Creel took over as the starter in week 7 for the final 8 games. Creel is not a great passer, as he rates at 1.3 yards per pass play worse than average after taking into account the mostly bad defensive units that he faced, but he takes care of the ball (just 2 interceptions in his 8 starts after throwing 2 after coming off the bench versus Southern Miss in week 5) and is a very effective runner. Creel ran for over 1,100 yards at 7.4 yards per run/scramble and running back Cam Cook added 1659 yards at 5.6 ypr. The Gamecocks average over 250 rush yards per game and match up pretty well against a Troy defense that is worse defending the run (0.6 yprp worse than average) than they are defending the pass (0.1 yppp worse than average). I project 382 yards at 5.7 yppl for Jacksonville State in this game.

While Jacksonville State has a slight edge from the line of scrimmage and in projected turnover margin (+0.3), the Gamecocks are at a significant disadvantage in special teams and overall the math favors Troy by 1.8 points with 50.0 total points. There is a decent 71-31-2 ATS bowl angle that applies to Jacksonville State that plays on the better running team, so I’ll shade the prediction a couple of points towards the Gamecocks.