Game Analysis

Missouri State (pick)  28   Arkansas State  27

These two teams are pretty much intact with just one opt out on Missouri State’s offensive line and a starting offensive lineman questionable for Arkansas State. My math comes up with Missouri State by 1.2 points and 54.7 total points, which is right on market.

Missouri State has been 0.1 yards per play better than an average offensive team this season with Jacob Clark at quarterback, averaging 6.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl to an average FBS attack. That unit has an advantage over an Arkansas State defense that’s been 0.7 yppl worse than average (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense) – although the Red Wolves are relatively much better defending the pass (0.5 yppp worse than average) than defending the run (1.0 yprp worse than average) and Missouri State has a pass-heavy offense. I project 401 yards at 6.5 yppl for Missouri State.

Arkansas State’s offense has been 1.1 yppl worse than average (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average offense) and that unit is at a disadvantage against a Bears’ defense that rated at 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl) even with the 10.5 yppl they gave up in their opening game to USC. I’ve adjusted for that outlier and project 382 yards at 5.2 yppl for the Red Wolves.

Missouri State has a significant advantage from the line of scrimmage but the Bears are horrible on special teams while Arkansas State has good special teams units – which closes the gap a bit. I have Missouri State by 1.2 points with 54.7 total points.