Game Analysis

Western Michigan (-3)  25   Kennesaw State  22

Winds of 15 to 17 MPH with gusts into the 20s are expected in Conway during the 3 hours of this game and the heavy winds favor Western Michigan, as the Broncos are projected to run the ball more and run it more efficiently with quarterback Broc Lowry leading the way. However, the math still only favors the Broncos by 2.9 points (and 46.7 total points).

Lowry ran for over 1,000 yards, despite not starting until week 4, and the Broncos ran for over 200 yards in 8 of their last 9 games. Lowry isn’t a great passer (0.7 yards per pass play worse than average) but he also doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way very often (just 21 passes defended against) and threw just 2 interceptions (projected for just 4). Kennesaw State is 0.5 yards per rushing play worse than average defending the run (and 0.5 yppp worse than average against the pass) and I project 365 yards at 5.5 yards per play for Western Michigan.

Kennesaw’s offense also improved with a quarterback change, as Amari Odom was a significant upgrade from Dexter Williams II. Odom completed 67% of his passes and has been 1.0 yards per pass play better than an average FBS quarterback, which is very good for a CUSA QB. The Owls do not run the ball well, as they averaged just 4.6 yprp against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp to an average team, but overall the offense rates at 0.1 yppl better than average with Odom in the game.

Western Michigan has a solid defense that yielded an average of just 18 points per game and 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for facing the worst of quarterbacks from Michigan State, Northern Illinois, and Miami-Ohio). I project just 337 yards at 5.4 yppl for Kennesaw State in the windy conditions.

Overall the math favors Western Michigan by 2.9 points, which includes about a full point edge in projected turnovers. Pass.