Game Analysis

Arizona (+1)  26   Southern Methodist 26

Arizona is a better team than SMU and my math model would favor Arizona by 3.8 points with a total of 50.2 points. The question in this game is the potential opt outs. Both teams have players that could opt out but neither coach has discussed the matter.

Arizona head coach Brett Brennan said that there could be opt outs, but he wouldn’t announce them if there were because he doesn’t want to give SMU any knowledge of who may be sitting. I’m not sure what to make of that. There could be opt outs and he’s simply not going to tell us, or maybe there are no opt outs. The depth chart that Arizona released for this bowl game was the depth chart for their regular season finale against Arizona State so there’s really no way of knowing who’s opting out unless a player publicly announces it – which none have. All-American CB Treydan Stukes has accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl and players that are willing to play in such games also tend to play in their bowl game.

SMU’s depth chart shows all starters playing in this game and I’ll assume that’s the case. The Mustangs entered the season overrated after last season’s team was selected as a playoff team. SMU is a good team but they’re not close to as good as last season’s squad. The offense is good, rating at 0.9 yards per play better than average (6.3 yppl against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) but their defense is just 0.4 yppl better than average (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team (adjusted for facing backup quarterbacks against Clemson and Louisville).

The Mustangs have a slight edge (0.1 yppl) with their defense against an Arizona offense that’s just 0.3 yppl better than average but Wildcats’ defense has an even bigger advantage. Arizona’s defense allowed just 18.9 points per game and just 4.6 yppl against teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team, which gives that unit a 0.3 yppl advantage over SMU’s offense.

I project 401 yards at 5.5 yppl for Arizona and 354 yards at 5.5 yppl for SMU. The mustangs are projected to run fewer plays, as their bend-but-don’t break defense faces an average of 74 plays per game and they’re -7 in play differential per game (against FBS opponents). SMU does have an edge in special teams (0.8 points) but Arizona has a 1.6 points advantage in projected turnovers thanks to one of the best secondaries in the nation. The Mustangs had 19 interceptions and doubled the national average in interception percentage. Some of that is random but Arizona had 74 passes defended (19 picks and 55 other passes broken up) and allowed just 53.0% completions. That equates to a predicted interception percentage of 4.3%, which is still very high. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings threw 10 picks this season (and 11 last season) while Arizona QB Noah Fifita threw just 5 interceptions.

The model only predicts a difference of 0.4 interceptions in this game, but that equates to 1.6 points. Overall, the math favors Arizona by 3.8 points. SMU does look better in a compensated points model, which favors the Mustangs by 0.8 points. However, SMU’s extremely good red-zone defense is likely more good fortune that skill. The 5.3 yards per play that the Mustangs have allowed to FBS opponents is not that much better than the national average but their 3.6 points per red-zone opportunity allowed is elite and mostly random. The best 5 defenses in the nation (Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Miami-Florida and Texas Tech) gave up an average of 4.3 points per redzone opportunity and if SMU did the same then they’d be 2.1 points worse.

Arizona should be favored by around a field goal in this game assuming that they don’t have any opt outs but the Wildcats do apply to a 38-92-1 ATS bowl situation that will keep me from leaning their way.