Game Analysis

Tennessee (-3)  33   Illinois  29

Tennessee’s offense rated at 1.3 yards per play better than average against FBS opponents but they’ll be without their best wide receiver Chris Brazzell, who is opting out to prepare for the NFL draft. Brazzell led the Vols in receiving yards and with 11.2 yards per target on his 91 targets. I value Brazzell at 1.9 points and rate the Tennessee attack at 1.0 yppl better than average heading into this game.

The Illini defense was 0.7 yppl better than average against FBS opponents but they’ll be a bit shorthanded with the absence of elite edge rusher Gabe Jacas (11 sacks, NFL opt-out) and starting strong safety Matthew Bailey (surgery), who was the team’s leading tackler. I value those two players at 2.8 points, most of which is Jacas, who had 41% of the team’s sacks. Illinois is 0.4 yppl better than average defensively heading into this game and I project Tennessee’s offense to rack up 462 yards at 6.4 yppl in what is projected to be better than average scoring conditions in Nashville.

Illinois is nothing special on offense (I rate them just 0.3 yppl better than average FBS attack) but quarterback Luke Altymer threw just 5 interceptions all season (and only 6 last season) and they’ll only be down one starter – left tackle J.C. Davis, who is worth 0.1 yppl (about half a point).

The Vols’ defense was only 0.4 yppl better than average this season and will be missing leading tackler Arion Carter, starting CB Colton Hood, starting DT Jaxson Moi (injured), starting edge rusher Joshua Josephs, and reserve CB Boo Carter. I value those players as worth 3.9 points and I project Illinois with 406 yards at 6.1 yppl in this game against what is now a slightly worse than average defense.

Overall, the math favors Tennessee by 4.2 points with a total of 61.8 points and I suggest passing on this game.