Game Analysis

Georgia (-6.5)  30   Mississippi  25

It’s still hard to say how much not having Lane Kiffin will affect the Ole Miss offense. They actually played better than expected against Tulane in their first playoff game (514 yards at 7.8 yards per play) but I suspect there will be a negative impact in this game. Even so, I still would rather have Mississippi plus the points.

Mississippi’s offense was 1.6 yards per play better than average with Trinidad Chambliss at quarterback this season and I project 390 yards at 5.9 yppl for the Rebels against a Georgia defense that was 1.4 yppl better than average this season. Georgia is without LB Gabe Harris, who is third on the team in total tackles for loss (6.5) and he’s worth 0.4 points. Ole Miss averaged 5.9 yppl and scored 35 points in a loss at Georgia earlier this season so 6.0 yppl seems reasonable.

Georgia’s offense was just 0.5 yppl better than average this season (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense) but they tend to play very vanilla scheme’s as huge favorites, so I decided to discard their early season games against Marshall and Austin Peay. Georgia’s pass game gets a boost with the return from injury of WR Colbie Young, who missed the last 6 games after averaging 10.8 yards per target over the first 7 games of the season. I still rate Georgia’s offense at just 0.7 yards per play better than average even after taking out their first 2 games and giving their pass game a 0.2 yppp boost for getting Young back.

Mississippi’s defense was just 0.5 yppl better than average this season (barely worse than Georgia’s offense) and I don’t expect them to play as horribly as they did in their loss at Georgia when the Bulldogs gained 513 yards at 6.7 yppl. That was Gunner Stockton’s best game and I consider it a fluke. I project 415 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Bulldogs in this game, even with a boost for being in a dome.

The math only favors Georgia by 3.3 points (and 56.7 total points) and I’ll dock Ole Miss a bit for Kiffin not calling plays for the Rebels, which should matter more against a good defense than it did against Tulane.