Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – Oregon Team Total Under (34.5 -130) to -140 odds

Or, Under 35.5 to -165. Or, Under 33.5 -115 or better.

Alternate play is a 1-Star Best Bet on James Madison at +21 (Strong Opinion at +20.5)

James Madison (+21)  13   OREGON  28

This did not work out the way I was hoping as far as value when I saw the line last week and knew I was going to bet the Oregon Team Total Under. The line on this game was Oregon -21.5 and a total of 50 points (an Oregon TT of 35.5 -110), but the total has dropped significantly, and Oregon is now favored by 21 points.

My math is showing value on James Madison and the Under, which made Oregon’s Team Total Under the best bet I could make. I like that better than James Madison plus the points because I could see a scenario where the Dukes; inconsistent offense gets completely shut down by an elite Oregon defense. Unfortunately, I must wait until game day to play Team Totals and instead of getting Under 35.5 points I have to settle for a lower number (or worse odds) and a lower Star rating.

James Madison’s defense looks legit to me. The Dukes allowed an average of just 15.9 points and 4.1 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average FBS defense and that unit proved itself against good offensive teams. They held Louisville to just 264 total yards in a competitive 14-28 road loss to what was a healthy Cardinals’ offense and 78 of those yards came on one run with a few minutes left in the game that turned a 7-point deficit into a 14-point loss. Louisville averaged just 3.6 yards per play aside from that one big play and the Dukes also limited very good offensive teams Old Dominion and Texas State to a combined 5.1 yppl. Overall, in 3 games against good offensive teams that Dukes were 1.3 yppl better than average, which the same as their overall defensive rating.

Oregon is clearly the best offensive team that ODU has faced, as the Ducks have been 1.7 yppl better than average offensively this season (7.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) but those numbers are skewed by the 1352 yards at 11.3 yppl in two games against bad defensive teams Oklahoma State and Rutgers. The Ducks faced 5 good defensive teams this season (Penn State before losing their top LB Tony Rojas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Washington) and they averaged just 5.4 yppl and 20.8 points per game (in regulation) with 26 points being the most points they scored in regulation against those good defensive teams. Those opponents would combine to allow 4.7 yppl to an average team, so the Ducks were just 0.7 yppl better than average offensively against good defensive teams, which is significantly worse than their +1.7 yppl overall rating. James Madison’s defense is better than the average rating of the 5 best defenses that Oregon faced and averaged just 21 points per game against. My math is projecting 28.3 points for Oregon using their season rating with all games weighed equally and it’s likely they’ll score fewer points than that given their strong pattern of playing relatively worse against better defensive teams.

Rather than just isolating those 5 games against good teams I thought it would be better to use a regression equation using all 12 games that projects Oregon’s yards per play as a function of their opponent’s yppl compensated rating (adjusted for site). The correlation coefficient for that equation is 0.88, which is extremely high (1.0 is perfect correlation), and the slope of the equation is 2.03, which means that for every yard better a defense was the Ducks’ offense was 2.03 yards worse.

Using JMU’s defensive rating in that equation would project just 5.4 yppl for Oregon in this game, which is lower than the 6.1 yppl that the model predicts weighing all of the Ducks’ offensive performances equally. I think there is certainly enough evidence to suggest that Oregon is relatively worse offensively against better defensive teams and that James Madison has been equally good defensively against better offensive teams as they’ve been overall this season.

I project Oregon scoring just 28.3 points using all of their offensive games equally and it would be just 24.6 points using the 5.5 yppl that the regression equation would predict (adjusted up for better than average weather conditions). That’s not unreasonable considering that they averaged only 20.8 points in regulation against 5 teams with good defensive units – with a maximum of 26 points in those games. I like the Ducks’ team total under even if I weigh Oregon’s offensive performances equally.

There is also value on James Madison, but the Dukes averaged only 3.4 yards per play against Louisville, the one very good defense that they faced this season – although they did rack up 87 points on 948 yards at 7.6 yppl against better than average defensive teams Old Dominion and Washington State and overall their regression equation projecting offensive yppl as a function of the opposing defenses rating has a slope of just 0.53, which means that their offense was relatively better against better defensive teams – although I still think they’ll really struggle in this game, as they did in their game against the best defense they faced this season (Louisville).  I project just 254 yards at 4.2 yppl for James Madison in this game.

Based on the historical performance of my math predictions for bowl games, and the actual side and total lines, the “True” line on this game is 18.7 and 44.7 total points. In a sample nearly 600 games of favorites and totals in that range (which averaged a line of 18.7 points and a total of 44.7 points) 64.9% of the favorites scored 35 points or fewer and 61.5% scored fewer than 34 points or fewer (55.6% 33 points or fewer).

Oregon’s Team Total Under 34.5 points is a 1-Star Best Bet at -140 odds or better. Under 35.5 points at -165 or better and Under 33.5 points at -115 odds or better.