Game Analysis

Minnesota (-2)  23   New Mexico  21

My math favors New Mexico in this game by 3 points but Minnesota applies to a 50-8-1 ATS bowl situation and I suggest passing on this game.

New Mexico has been the better teams from the line of scrimmage this season on both sides of the ball. The Lobos have been 0.1 yppl worse than average on offense (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) while Minnesota’s offense has been 0.7 yppl worse than average (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl). New Mexico’s defense has been 0.2 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense, while the Gophers’ defense has been 0.1 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average D).

It’s possible (I think likely) that Minnesota’s top receiver Le’Meke Brockington will not play in this game after declaring for the NFL draft and thanking his teammates and coaches on an Instagram post. However, Brockington’s 7.2 yards per target is the same as the rest of the Gophers’ wide receivers (against FBS opponents). It’s also possible that New Mexico’s best defensive player, DE Keyshawn James-Newby, could opt out, although he is listed as a starter on the bowl depth chart.

The math favors New Mexico by 3 points and 44 total points but that strong situation applying to Minnesota will keep me off this game.