Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (51.5) – Oregon (-2.5)  24   Texas Tech  21

The 51 points that Oregon put up against a good James Madison defense was the first time all season that the Ducks had scored more than 26 points against a good defense. In the previous 5 games against good defensive teams (Penn State before losing their top LB Tony Rojas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Washington) Oregon averaged just 5.4 yppl and 20.8 points per game (in regulation) with 26 points being the most points they scored in regulation against those other good defensive teams. I still don’t trust their offense to be explosive against a good defense and Texas Tech’s defense is the best that the Ducks have faced this season.

Excluding the games against bad defensive teams Oklahoma State, Oregon State and Rutgers – and adjusting for being without WR Moore for 4 games, WR Bryant for 3 games and TE Sadiq for 1 game (all 3 missed the Iowa game) – I have Oregon’s offense 1.9 yards per play better than average.

The Red Raiders defense is also 1.9 yppl better than average, as that unit has yielded just 3.9 yards per play (with starters in the game) in 12 games against FBS teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. They held the best offensive teams that they faced (Utah) to just 10 points on 259 yards at 3.8 yppl and 5.1 yppl was the most they gave up in any game this season (excluding garbage time). I project Oregon with 350 yards at 5.4 yppl in this game.

Texas Tech’s offense averaged 6.3 yppl this season against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack but quarterback Behren Morton missed the equivalent of 3 full games (2 games and half of 2 others) and Morton was 2.1 yppp better than his backup. Morton, like Oregon QB Moore, was relatively better against bad defenses, but he was still 1.3 yppp better than average after excluding the games against bad defensive teams and I rate the Red Raiders’ attack at 0.8 yppl better than average with Morton at quarterback.

Oregon also has an elite defense that yielded just 4.4 yppl (with starters in the game) against teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense. I project 326 yards at 4.8 yppl for Texas Tech in this game.

I think this game is going to be lower scoring than expected with both offenses relatively worse against better defensive teams. I get 45.3 total points (and Oregon by 3.0 points) and the Under is a Strong Opinion at 51 points or higher.