Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Washington State (+2 -115)  26   Utah State  21

It looks like there’s been an overreaction to Washington State being without their head coach (both coordinators are still with the team) and to players that have entered the portals, as no impactful Cougars are expected to miss this game. Utah State, meanwhile, doesn’t have many losses but the one they do have, Braden Pegan, is their best wide receiver.

Washington State has a very good defense that yielded just 5.1 yards per play to opponents that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average FBS defense – despite giving up 9.3 yppl to Washington in week 4. That unit struggled a bit early in the season with bad performances against North Texas and Washington, but they held good offensive teams Ole Miss and James Madison to just 24 points each after their week 6 bye. I rate that unit at 0.7 yppl better than average after adjusting for quarterbacks faced and for the outliers. Reserve CB Kenny Worthy and LB Anthony Palano are both transferring and won’t play but I don’t see that as a negative, as Worthy broke up just 1 pass and had only 23 tackles while Palano (just 0.5 tackles for loss) was replaced in the starting lineup for missing too many tackles. It looks like all the starters are going to play for DC Jesse Bobbit, who was named the interim head coach for this game.

Utah State’s offense has been 0.2 yppl better than average this season, as their 6.3 yards per play (excluding garbage time) was against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack. Not having top WR Braden Pegan is worth 0.2 yards per pass play (0.1 yppl) as his 925 yards at 9.5 yards per target and team leading 53.5% success rate is a loss – although the rest of the wide receivers averaged a decent 8.6 yards per target. I project 314 yards at 5.3 yppl for the Aggies in this game.

Washington State’s offense is nothing special, although it improved when Zevi Eckhaus became the starting quarterback in week 4. Eckhaus has been 0.1 yards per pass play worse than average (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and he’s a good runner (438 yards on 83 runs). Leading rusher Kirby Vorhees won’t play in this game but his 576 yards at 4.2 yards per rush won’t be missed too much, although there is a bit of a downgrade given that the other 3 backs have combined for just 4.0 ypr on 127 runs. Wide Receiver and punt returner Tony Freeman has indicated he’s entering the transfer portal, although there were sources that said he’d play in this game and a story about a Cougars’ bowl practice on Saturday shows a picture of Freeman catching a pass, which is a good indication that he’s playing. The Cougars attack rates at 0.2 yppl worse than average heading into this game.

Utah State’s defense was pretty good for a Mountain West Conference team, as the Aggies allowed just 5.9 yppl to a collection of teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average FBS defense (adjusted for facing Boise State’s backup QB and half of the Air Force game without the Falcons’ best QB). I project 384 yards at 5.6 yppl for Washington State in this game.

Washington State is a better team and the line on this game would have been Cougars by 3.5 or 4 points had it not been for the coaching change. I don’t think that has any bearing on this game with the both of the Cougars’ coordinators still with the team and no significant losses among the transfers – the best of which (Freeman) being expected to play in this game given that he’s been practicing with the team and attended the new head coaches’ press conference. I favor Washington State by 5 points in this game, as they have a significant edge in special teams, which more than offsets Utah’s edge in projected turnovers (0.4 turnovers). There is more variance in games involving interim coaches, so I’ll resist making the Cougars a Best Bet.

Washington State is a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.