Game Analysis

Mississippi State (-3)  27   Wake Forest  24

Mississippi State was just 5-7 this season but the Bulldogs got a bowl invitation due to lack of available teams. Surprisingly, they remain pretty much intact for this game, aside from a couple of not too impactful defensive players and quarterback Blake Shapen, who was replaced by dual-threat freshman Kamario Taylor in the final game of the regular season.

Taylor isn’t the passer that Shapen is but he’s a much better runner and an overall upgrade to the offense based on the 4-game sample in which Taylor saw action. Taylor rates at 0.2 yards per pass play worse than average but he ran for 333 yards on 42 runs over the final 4 games, including 184 yards on 17 runs in the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss. Shapen, meanwhile, averaged only 3.6 yards on his 77 runs and I rate the offense at 0.5 yppl better than average with Taylor at quarterback, which is 0.3 yppl better than the Bulldogs’ season rating.

Wake Forest has an outstanding defense that allowed just 4.6 yppl to FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. The Demon Deacons will be without DT Mateen Ibirogba and likely DE Nuer Gatkuoth, who missed the last game due to injury and just lost his appeal to the NCAA for another year of eligibility and has entered the NFL draft. Those two are worth a combined 1.5 points. I project 398 yards at 5.2 yppl for Mississippi State in this game.

Wake Forest is offensively challenged, as they were 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively this season and they’ll be a bit worse heading into this game. The Demon Deacons’ top running back Demond Claiborne has declared for the NFL draft and reportedly won’t play in this game. Claiborne ran for 907 yards at 5.1 ypr but he had 193 yards on 10 runs against a horrible FCS defense, which is a game that I took out of my model, and managed just 4.2 ypr against FBS opponents. The next two backs combined for just 3.7 ypr against FBS teams, so it’s still a downgrade to the rushing attack to not have Claiborne. Wake Forest will also be without wide receivers Chris Barnes and Micah Mays Jr., who have both entered the transfer portal, but those two combined for just 7.4 yards per target on 94 targets against FBS opponents while the rest of the wide receivers combined for 8.6 yards per target against FBS foes.

Mississippi State’s defense is just 0.2 yppl better than average (6.2 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defense) and not having #3 safety Tony Mitchell and injured backup LB Derion Gullette should have a negligible effect on that unit. I project 361 yards at 5.3 yppl for Wake Forest in this game.

Mississippi State has an edge in projected turnovers (0.8 points) and in special teams (0.2 points) and overall, the math favors the Bulldogs by 3.2 points with 51.2 total points. I suggest passing on this game.