Game Analysis

Lean – Louisiana Tech (-10)  32   Coastal Carolina  18

Coastal Carolina started the season as a terrible team and ended the season as a terrible team. There were 5 games in the middle when the Chanticleers weren’t so bad. That coincided with Samari Collier taking over at quarterback. Collier was not only proved to be a better passer than MJ Morris and Tad Hudson but he added 440 yards on 63 runs (not including sacks, which are part of pass plays in my stats). Coastal Carolina scored 40 points or more in each of Collier’s 4 starts and they averaged only 18.1 points in the 8 games in which he did not start. Collier missed the final 2 games of the regular season and is unlikely to play (although it is possible).

Coastal Carolina’s offense rates at 1.0 yards per play worse than average for the season but they are significantly worse with Hudson starting at quarterback, which is very likely in this game. However, Louisiana Tech’s solid defense (just 21.3 ppg allowed and 0.3 yppl worse than average on a national scale) is without 5 key players. LB Kolbe Fields was hurt in week 5 (he was #3 tackler at the time) and 4 other starters have entered the transfer portal and are not on the depth chart for this game. Strong safety Jacob Fields led the team in takes and had 8 passes defended. Linebacker Mekhi Mason was the Bulldogs’ #2 tackler and had 14.5 total tackles for loss. Cornerback Jamal Shelby had 9 passes defended and was good in run support (6th on the team in tackles is good for a CB). The other loss was starting free safety Michael Richard, who had 6 passes defended and 5 tackles for loss. Wide receiver Cameron Wright is not listed on the depth chart for Coastal Carolina and while he did lead the team in receiving yards (just 274 yards) his absence is negligible. The losses on the Bulldogs’ defense are about the same value as the Coastal Carolina offense without Collier and I project 313 yards at 5.0 yppl for the Chanticleers in this game.

The Louisiana Tech offense got a late season boost when opening day starter Trey Kukuk was back at quarterback after injuries to Blake Baker and Evan Bullock. Baker was the best passer on the team and Kukuk rates at 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average but the Bulldogs offense turned run-heavy in the final two games with Kukuk and I’m sure they’ll stick with that approach against a Coastal Carolina defense that is terrible defending the run (231 yards at 5.9 yprp allowed). Kukuk ran 35 times for 315 yards in the final two games of the regular season and the Bulldogs ran 75% of the time. I expect the same in this game and project 306 rush yards at 5.8 yprp and 413 total yards at 5.8 yppl against a Chanticleers’ defense that has been 0.9 yppl worse than average.

The math favors Louisiana Tech by 14 points (with a small boost for playing in nearby Shreveport) with a total of 49.5 points if Collier does not play for Coastal Carolina. I’d get Louisiana Tech by around 9 points if Collier were 100% healthy and played the entire game.

Louisiana Tech would be a Lean at -10 or less if Collier is not listed as the starting QB for Coastal.