Game Analysis

Lean – Over (43) – Northwestern (-10.5)  29   Central Michigan  19

These teams appear to be intact with no vital opt outs or significant injuries. Central Michigan gets back their running quarterback Angel Flores, who ran for 534 yards on 100 runs in 8 games before missing the final 4 regular season contests. Coach Matt Drinkall says that Flores will play in this game but the Chippewas’ offense was no worse in the 4 games that he missed, although I expect them to run the ball more with Flores getting a few series a game again (he ran 100 times vs just 30 pass plays).

Central Michigan was 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively this season and I project just 275 yards at 5.3 yppl for the Chippewas against a Northwestern defense that was 0.2 yppl better than average.

Northwestern is a below average team on a national scale, averaging just 5.2 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team but they should move the ball pretty well in this game against a CMU defense that’s been 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 5.3 yppl against an average defense). I project 405 yards at 6.3 yppl for the Wildcats in the perfect dome conditions.

Overall, the math is projecting 680 total yards at a slightly better than average 5.8 yppl clip and the model is projecting 47.6 total points. I’ll lean over 44 points or less. No opinion on the side, as the math favors Northwestern by 10.6 points but big-dogs in minor bowl games tend to cover.