Game Analysis

Ohio State (-9.5)  22   Miami-Florida  15

This game will be decided by how each offense performs against an elite defense.

Miami’s offense has been 1.0 yards per play better than average this season (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) despite having an average rushing attack. Veteran quarterback Carson Beck has completed 74.5% of his passes and averaged 7.9 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would allow just 5.8 yppl against an average team. It may seem like Miami really struggled last week against Texas A&M, but the Hurricanes played at their normal level (5.7 yppl against an Aggies’ defense that would allow just 4.6 yppl at home to an average offense). Beck, however, managed just 4.0 yppp while the rushing attack took advantage of a sub-par A&M run defense.

Over the course of the season Beck did have some good performances against good pass defenses, but he was relatively better against worse defensive teams and the slope of the regression equation to predict his yppp as a function of the opposing pass defense is 1.51, which means that he was 1.51 yppp better  for every yard worse a pass defense was (and 1.51 yppp worse for every yard better the pass defense he faced was). The math model projects 5.81 yppp for Beck in this game but taking into account that Beck has been relatively worse against better pass defenses has me projecting just 5.3 yppp for Beck in this game (even with the boost of playing in a covered venue). That’s a difference of 1.6 points. Miami will not be able to run the ball (just 3.6 yprp projected) and I have the Hurricanes with just 235 total yards at 4.4 yppl in this game against an Ohio State defense that’s been best in the nation 2.1 yppl better than average.

Ohio State’s offense was 1.3 yppl better than average this season but they were missing WR Carnell Tate (14.8 yards per target against FBS opponents) for 3 games, including the game against Rutgers when All-American WR Jeremiah Smith (10.1 YPT) was also held out. I rate the Buckeyes’ offense at 1.5 yppl better than average with their full arsenal of weapons. However, that offense was also relatively worse against better defensive teams and averaged just 5.5 yppl against the 4 very good defensive units that they faced (Texas, Washington, Michigan and Indiana), who would combine to allow 4.5 yppl to an average team.

I think the Buckeyes could struggle a bit against an elite Miami defense that’s allowed just 4.5 yppl to FBS teams (with starters in the game) that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defense. That unit is a bit better than that that after adjusting for the time that star safety Keionte Scott missed (2 full games and most of 2 others). That defense was just as good, relatively, against good offensive teams as they’ve been overall and just held a very good Texas A&M attack to just 3 points at 4.4 yppl in their first playoff game. I project a modest 327 yards at 5.4 yppl for Ohio State in this game. I should note that head coach Ryan Day is going to take over playcalling for the Buckeyes. That could help, but it also adds another level of communication from Day to the booth to the quarterback, which could also be detrimental. I project 327 yards at 5.4 yppl for Ohio State in this game.

I get Ohio State by 7.1 points and just 37 total points.