Game Analysis

Louisville (-12)  27   Toledo  17

Note: Louisville’s star RB Isaac Brown has been upgraded to probable, as has #2 Keyjuan Brown, and the recent line movement also could be an indication that some of Toledo’s great defensive talent may be opting out of this game (although I haven’t seen anything on that). I’ve added 2 points to Louisville’s offense to reflect that possibility.

Louisville’s offense is based on their explosive rushing attack, as quarterback Miller Moss has been just average (6.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB). Top RB Isaac Brown (782 yards at 8.6 ypr) has been injured but was upgraded to expected to play, as has Keyjuan Brown (592 yards at 7.3 ypr), who missed the last two games. The run game will still be good with the Browns leading the way.  However, Louisville will be without their top WR Chris Bell, who is injured. Bell led the team in receiving yards and averaged 8.4 yards per target while the other wide receivers combined for just 6.9 YPT. Bell is worth about a point.

Toledo had an elite defense that allowed just 13.3 points per game and 3.9 yards per play (with starters in the game) to FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average FBS stop unit. However, the Rockets will be without impact starters DE Malachi Davis, S Braden Awls, and LB Chris D’Appolonia, who combined for 156 tackles, 7 sacks, 12.5 other tackles for loss and 14 passes defended. I project those 3 players to be worth 3.2 points. It’s possible other starters could be out too, but the rest of the unit has been practicing, and I’ll assume that they’ll play. I project just 350 yards at 5.3 yppl for Louisville in this game, which includes worse than average scoring conditions (double-digit winds are expected).

Toledo’s offense averaged 6.3 yards per play against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack but the Rockets will likely be without starting quarterback Tucker Gleason, who was downgraded to doubtful. Backup Kelieb Osborne looked pretty capable taking over for Gleason against Central Michigan with 92 yards on 9 pass plays and 70 yards on 10 runs. There would certainly be no dropoff if he plays like that, but I’ll assume a standard adjustment from starter to backup in the pass game.

Louisville had a very good defense that rates at 1.1 yards per play better than average and has been good against both the run (0.7 yprp better than average) and the pass (1.6 yppp better than average). Two starting defensive linemen have opted out (DT Rene Konga and DE Wesley Bailey) and I value those two as worth 1.8 points. I project 291 yards at 4.8 yppl for the Rockets, but there is more variance in that projection given the limited sample of Toledo backup Osborne.

The math would have favored Louisville by just 5.5 points with no adjustments and the players likely to miss this game for Toledo are now more valuable than the players likely to miss this game for the Rockets (I get Louisville by 7.5 points with a total of 43.3 points). However, Toledo being without their defensive coordinator and co-DC could have an affect on the Rockets’ elite defense. It is also possible that other key Toledo defenders don’t play, so I’ve added a couple of points to the projection to account for that possibility. I’d rather have Toledo but this is not a game I recommend betting.