Game Analysis

Army (-7.5)  27   Connecticut  16

Connecticut will be without their star quarterback Joe Fagnano and 6 other starters have entered the transfer portal with most questionable to doubtful to play. Fagnano had an efficient season, as he averaged 7.6 yards per pass play (against FBS opponents that would allow 7.5 yppp to an average QB) with just 1 interception on 413 pass attempts. I assume that Nick Evers will be the starting quarterback for this game and Evers is terrible. Evers was the starter for much of last season and was 2.0 yards per pass play worse than average (4.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp) before Fagnano took over. Adjusting only for Evers in place of Fagnano I worth 6.4 points and the adjustment would be even more if the 6 players intending to transfer also don’t play.

I get Army by 7.5 points without adjusting for the other UConn players being out, and there would certainly be value on the Black Knights in this game if those in the portal don’t play. For now, I’ll assume that two starting offensive linemen and star LB Oumar Diomande will not play. It looks like CB Cam Chadwick is expected to play and no word on All-American outside linebacker Bryun Parham, who is senior and can’t transfer but could decide to opt-out.

It also should be noted that Military Academy teams are 42-15 ATS in bowl games, including 17-3 ATS since 2013. Army would be a Lean at -7 or less.