Game Analysis

Lean – Under (53) – South Florida (-3.5)  25   Old Dominion  24

Both of these teams have dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks that will not be playing in this game and it’s a bit of a guess as to how much that will impact this game. South Florida will also be without their head coach and most of the offensive staff, including the coordinator.

With no adjustments, the math would have favored South Florida by 6.3 points, but I do think that the loss of Bulls’ QB Byrum Brown is more impactful than the absence of ODU’s quarterback Colton Joseph. It’s not that Brown is that much better than Joseph but more that Old Dominion’s backup Quinn Henicle has shown that he can play while USF’s backup Gaston Moore has accumulated just 40 yards on 21 pass plays in relief this season – although he was considered to be good enough to be a backup at Tennessee before joining USF this season. Henicle started last season’s finale and led the Monarchs to a 40-32 victory in which he was an efficient 9 of 12 passing and ran for over 200 yards, including a 92-yard burst.

I’ll assume that the passing numbers for each team fall off the same significant amount (1.4 yppp) from the level of the departed starters (Joseph was 0.8 yards per pass play better than average relative to the pass defenses faced and Brown was +1.8 yppp) but South Florida will take an extra hit in their run game with the loss of Brown’s 1105 yards on 147 runs versus FBS teams, as Moore has not proven that he can run effectively (just 44 yards on 9 runs the last two seasons as a backup). South Florida averaged 6.1 yards per rushing play against FBS teams this season but taking out Brown’s contribution would lower that to 5.4 yprp.

I don’t expect Old Dominion’s rush attack to be affected at all, as Henicle has run for 418 yards on 45 runs the last two seasons in what amounts to about two-and-a-half games. Joseph ran for 1110 yards at 7.9 yards per run and it seems like Henicle can do the same.

It should be noted that Old Dominion has a slightly better defensive rating (0.7 yards per play better than average) than South Florida’s defense (0.6 yppl better than average) and my math leans a bit with the Monarchs plus the points after making the adjustments.

I get USF by 1.4 points, but I think there is value on the under. In addition to lower yards per play expected for each team, which I think is factored in by the market, I also expect Old Dominion’s pace to slow down significantly with Henicle at quarterback.

Last season the Monarchs averaged 2.44 plays per minute of possession before the final game with Henicle starting at quarterback. In that game ODU ran the ball on 48 of 62 plays and averaged just 2.04 plays per minute – a pace that results in about 11 fewer plays being run in that game (both teams total). I certainly expect Old Dominion to once again go to a run-heavy gameplan with Henicle at quarterback, although USF will likely force more throwing than Arkansas State did against Henicle last season, and I project 9.7 fewer total plays being run because of that. That works out to 3.4 fewer points due to pace in addition to the fewer points expected, which I don’t think is reflected in the market.

Lean Under 53 points or more.