Game Analysis

Missouri (-4)  23   Virginia  20

Virginia has a mediocre offense led by a subpar rushing attack and quarterback Chandler Morris performing at a barely better than an average level. Leading rusher J’Mari Taylor has been undecided on whether he’ll play or not but his 4.8 yards per run likely won’t be missed given that veteran backup Harrison Waylee has accumulated over 3600 career rushing yards at 5.3 ypr and averaged 5.0 ypr this season. The big question is whether top WR Trell Harris will play or not after being injured in the ACC Championship game. Harris averaged 10.5 yards on 78 targets against FBS opponents while the rest of the Cavaliers’ receivers combined for just 7.2 yards per target. That works out to 1.5 points in this game if Harris can’t play.

Missouri’s defense was outstanding this season, as the Tigers yielded just 4.7 yards per play to FBS opponents that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defense. That unit will be without leading tackler and 1st-Team All SEC LB Josiah Trotter but otherwise appears to be intact for this game, although Missouri has not released a bowl depth chart so there could be some opt outs – although head coach Eli Drinkwitz doesn’t expect many. Trotter had 13 tackles for loss among his 84 tackles and I value him at 1.1 points. I’ll assume that the rest of the defense is playing and I project just 292 yards at 4.6 yppl for the Cavaliers in this game if star WR Harris can play or 279 yards at 4.4 yppl if Harris is out.

Missouri’s offense relies on their powerful rushing attack led my Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts, who combined for 2257 rush yards at 6.4 yards per run. Virginia has a good run defense (0.7 yards per rushing play better than average) and they’ll be focused on stopping the Tigers’ ground game given that the Tigers’ starting quarterback Beau Pribula has left the team. Pribula wasn’t good (0.3 yards per pass play worse than average with 9 interceptions on 270 pass attempts, but backup Matt Zollers was much worse. Zollers got meaningful snaps in a 3-game stretch from the middle of their week 9 game against Vanderbilt through their week 12 games against Miss State and he averaged just 3.9 yards per pass play (excluding a lucky Hail-Mary completion) while rating at 1.6 yppp worse than average FBS quarterback. Zollers is also not a runner and Pribula ran for 381 yards on 63 runs. Missouri will also be without 3 of their top 4 pass-catchers, as wide receivers Joshua Manning and Marquis Johnson have left the team and TE Brett Norfleet is injured.

Virginia’s defense has been 0.8 yards per play better than average this season and have been equally good defending the run and the pass. Run defense is obviously most important in this matchup and Missouri’s backup quarterback isn’t likely to take full advantage of Virginia’s CB Ja’son Prevard having left the team. Prevard led the Cavaliers in passes defended (8) but he didn’t add any run support (just 24 totals) and I value him at just 0.5 points in a game in which I expect Missouri to focus heavily on the run game. I project Missouri to run for close to 250 yards at 5.7 yards per run play while Zollers manages just 4.4 yards per pass play. Overall, the Tigers are projected to gain 363 yards at 5.2 yppl.

Missouri is projected to be significantly better from the line of scrimmage, which more than overcomes Virginia’s special teams advantage and I get the Tigers by 4.2 points with 44.4 total points if Harris plays for Virginia and Missouri by 5.7 points and 43.2. However, Virginia applies to a very good 79-25-2 ATS bowl situation. I suggest passing on this game.