Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Houston (-1 -105)  26   Louisiana State  19

My math model would have favored LSU by just 3 points without any adjustments but LSU is about 10 points worse due to injuries and opt outs.

The LSU offense was struggling even with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who didn’t have close to the receiving corps that he did last season. Nussmeier was just 0.1 yards per pass play better than average but backup Michael Van Buren Jr. who wasn’t good at Mississippi State last season, was 2.0  yppp worse than Nussmeier in 4-plus games against FBS teams after taking over for the injured starter. Van Buren has averaged just 4.5 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback). The Tigers were 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively for the season and they rate at 1.0 yppl worse than average with Van Buren at quarterback while averaging just 16.3 points in his 3 starts. One of those starts was against Oklahoma but LSU managed to average only 18 points against Arkansas and Western Kentucky, who are horrible defensive teams.

Houston’s defense was just 0.2 yppl better than average this season but that should be good enough to contain a bad LSU defense and I project just 283 yards at 4.8 yppl for LSU in this game – even in a domed stadium.

Houston’s offense was 0.3 yppl better than average this season with quarterback Conner Weigman in the game and the Cougars are intact aside from their starting center, who left the team. LSU’s elite defense (1.3 yards per play better than average) will be a shell of itself with 6 starters opting out of this game, including All-American CB Mansoor Delane. Six of the top 9 tacklers are gone and my algorithm projects the LSU defense to be 5.7 points worse. I project 371 yards at 5.6 yppl for the Cougars in this game.

Overall, the math favors Houston by 6.0 points with 45.2 total points and I’m going to add a point for this game being played in the city of Houston. Houston is a Strong Opinion to -2.5 or less.