Game Analysis

Brigham Young (-4)  29   Georgia Tech  27

These two teams are pretty much intact with the one major exception of BYU star RB L.J. Martin, who will not play in this game due to a shoulder injury. Martin was the Big-12 Offensive Player of the Year after rushing for 1305 yards at 5.5 ypr and he’s worth about 2 points. Georgia Tech has a few injuries on the defensive side of the ball. DB Jy Gilmore is out and backup DE Andre Fuller is likely not going to play but DT Akeo Stone may return after missing the regular season finale (he’s listed on the depth chart as the starter but with an “or” with his backup).

BYU’s offense was 0.6 yards per play better than average this season (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppl to an average offense) and the Cougars should be able to move the ball pretty well against a Georgia Tech defense that’s been 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense). The Yellow Jackets’ defense struggled in 3 games without top CB Ahmari Harvey (weeks 8 through 10), as they gave up 301 pass yards per game at 8.2 yards per pass play in the 3 games he missed). Georgia Tech is terrible defending the run (5.7 yards per rushing play allowed) but they pass defense is solid with Harvey healthy and they just held Georgia to 16 points at 3.9 yards per play in their final regular season game. I project 412 yards at 6.5 yppl to BYU in this game, even without Martin.

Georgia Tech’s offense is very good, averaging 6.8 yppl against teams that would  allow 5.6 yppl to an average team in the 11 games with Haynes King at quarterback, but BYU was once against good on the defensive side of the ball, rating at 0.8 yppl better than average (5.3 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would average 6.1 yppl against an average defense). However, the Cougars just 0.2 yards per rushing play better than average and Georgia Tech likes to run the ball and should have success doing so. I project 376 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Yellow Jackets in this game.

Overall, the math favors BYU by just 2.4 points with a total of 55.9 points.