Game Analysis

Lean – Ohio (+7)  31   Nevada-Las Vegas  34

These teams are intact aside from a few injuries from non-essential players. Ohio’s head coach has been fired for misconduct but the rest of the coaching staff is with the team. I’ll assume that has no impact on how Ohio will play in this game, as teams with interim head coaches are about 50% ATS long term.

Both teams are bad defensively and UNLV has a better offense but I expect Ohio to run more plays from scrimmage. The math projects UNLV with 445 yards at 7.6 yards per play and Ohio with 433 yards at 6.6 yppl. UNLV also has better special teams and has about a 1 point advantage in projected turnovers.

Overall, the math favors UNLV by 6.1 points with 65.5 total points but Ohio applies to a 37-4 ATS bowl situation and I’ll lean with the Bobcats based on that trend.