Game Analysis

Lean – CHICAGO (+3.5 -105) over LA Rams

Strong Opinion – Tyler Higbee (LA) – UNDER 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at 21.5 or more

Strong Opinion – Kyle Monangai (CHI) – OVER 8.5 Carries (-120) at -125 odds or better

• Chicago erased an 18-point halftime deficit last week against Green Bay. That unlikely upset of a division rival sets the Bears in a 26-82-1 ATS letdown situation this week and that angle is 1-14 ATS in the postseason. Otherwise, the model and weather point towards Chicago.
• The Bears’ defense got back starting nickelback Kyler Gordon last week, but he was not 100%. Gordon surrendered 1.70 yards per cover snap against Green Bay. Jordan Love targeted Gordon every 3.4 cover snaps. The Bears signed CJ Gardner-Johnson to play nickelback in Gordon’s stead most of the season and he will be back on the field this week to make sure Matthew Stafford can’t pick on the unhealthy Gordon with WR Puka Nacua, who is averaging 0.68 EPA/target (2nd).
• Chicago’s defense did lose starting linebacker TJ Edwards against the Packers, but he wasn’t having his best season. Backup LB D’Marco Jackson has a 6.3% run stop rate and is conceding just 4.1 yards per target compared to Edwards, with a 5.1% run stop rate and allowing 8.8 yards per target.
• Stafford injured his throwing hand in the Rams’ win over the Panthers in the wild-card round, and I think head coach Sean McVay would like to get big bodies on the field in 13 personnel and run the ball with Stafford nursing an injury in the cold. Los Angeles targeted tight ends on 25.8% of passes (9th-most), but the passing out of 13 personnel will be contained as Chicago’s defense conceded just 0.07 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (2nd).
• The Rams will feature the ground game as they will be getting back RG Kevin Dotson. Los Angeles averaged 4.8 yards per carry with Dotson on the field this year, compared to only 4.0 yards per carry when he was sidelined.
• Chicago’s offensive line ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency, and they will keep Caleb Williams upright against a Los Angeles pass rush with a 40% pressure rate (6th).
• The Bears lost starting left tackle Ozzy Trapilo, but they averaged 0.1 yppl more when he was off the field this season. Trapilo is a better pass blocker than backup Theo Benedet, as Trapilo is allowing a 6.9% pressure rate to Benedet’s 8.4% pressure rate, but Benedet is a better run blocker, and I expect Chicago head coach Ben Johnson to lean into the ground game as the Rams rated 6th in EPA/dropback allowed and 12th in EPA/rush allowed.
• It is going to be bitterly cold in Chicago on Sunday night. The current forecast is 2° with winds occasionally gusting over 40 mph. This will be one of the coldest wind chills in NFL history, and I believe it will notably favor the Bears.
• Cold weather teams are 44-34-2 ATS since 2010 against dome teams from week 12 on, including 43-27-1 from -9 to dog. It’s 19-16 against Division opponents and 24-11-1 against non-division without cold-weather familiarity like the Rams. There’s a difference between the dome Vikings going to be in Chicago and the dome Rams. Also, keep in mind that not all of those games were cold-weather games, which is a subset that would likely be even better for the home team.
• Chicago itself is 24-15-1 ATS at home from week 10 onward versus dome or warm-weather teams in the last 20 seasons. There is also a general situation (12-45-2 ATS) going against the Rams in this game, but the strongest angle is against Chicago and that will keep us from making the Bears a play here.
• Our model favors the Rams by just 2.1 points, with a predicted total of 48.9 points, and we Lean with Chicago at +3.5 or more.